Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday morning mainly from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma. ...Discussion... Little change from the previous outlook thinking, as instability and lift are expected to develop late tonight toward the end of the period. A shortwave trough is currently over northern Baja CA, and this will move quickly eastward tonight, arriving into western TX by Thursday morning. Persistent southerly low-level flow will eventually bring 60s F dewpoints into northern TX and OK, ahead of a developing cold front, with ascent increasing early Thursday morning after about 09Z. Isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front into part of OK into far southern KS after 09Z, though this will depend on boundary layer moisture quality. Conditionally, a storm or two may produce hail as effective shear will be supportive. ..Jewell.. 01/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/ ...Southwest TX into Central OK... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48. The aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX by early Thursday morning. A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning. As the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight, strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC period. Although the primary cyclone will remain near the CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of interest. Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK. Model-based soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear. An isolated risk for large hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of localized severe gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday morning mainly from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma. ...Discussion... Little change from the previous outlook thinking, as instability and lift are expected to develop late tonight toward the end of the period. A shortwave trough is currently over northern Baja CA, and this will move quickly eastward tonight, arriving into western TX by Thursday morning. Persistent southerly low-level flow will eventually bring 60s F dewpoints into northern TX and OK, ahead of a developing cold front, with ascent increasing early Thursday morning after about 09Z. Isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front into part of OK into far southern KS after 09Z, though this will depend on boundary layer moisture quality. Conditionally, a storm or two may produce hail as effective shear will be supportive. ..Jewell.. 01/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/ ...Southwest TX into Central OK... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48. The aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX by early Thursday morning. A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning. As the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight, strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC period. Although the primary cyclone will remain near the CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of interest. Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK. Model-based soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear. An isolated risk for large hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of localized severe gusts. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys... In the wake of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and related surface low departing the Great Lakes region, a front will extend from the surface low southwestward along the lower/middle OH Valley into the Arklatex through the first half of the period. During this time, broad low-level warm advection amid a relatively moist air mass ahead of the front will support training thunderstorms beneath a belt of strong, front-parallel midlevel southwesterly flow. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates and limited buoyancy, around 50 kt of effective shear may promote a couple strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and possibly a brief tornado into the afternoon hours. In the 21-03Z time frame, midlevel height falls accompanying a broad upstream trough will impinge on the frontal zone over the Mid-South vicinity. In response, a frontal wave will evolve into a surface low while tracking east-northeastward across the TN Valley during the overnight hours. Strengthening low-level warm-advection amid a plume of moist/uncapped air (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will yield a quick uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the lower MS and TN Valleys. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear and enlarging low-level hodographs ahead of the low will conditionally favor a mix of organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures -- posing a risk of damaging winds and possibly a couple tornadoes. However, weak buoyancy and the potential for many storm interactions increase the overall conditionality of the tornado risk. ..Weinman.. 01/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys... In the wake of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and related surface low departing the Great Lakes region, a front will extend from the surface low southwestward along the lower/middle OH Valley into the Arklatex through the first half of the period. During this time, broad low-level warm advection amid a relatively moist air mass ahead of the front will support training thunderstorms beneath a belt of strong, front-parallel midlevel southwesterly flow. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates and limited buoyancy, around 50 kt of effective shear may promote a couple strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and possibly a brief tornado into the afternoon hours. In the 21-03Z time frame, midlevel height falls accompanying a broad upstream trough will impinge on the frontal zone over the Mid-South vicinity. In response, a frontal wave will evolve into a surface low while tracking east-northeastward across the TN Valley during the overnight hours. Strengthening low-level warm-advection amid a plume of moist/uncapped air (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will yield a quick uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the lower MS and TN Valleys. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear and enlarging low-level hodographs ahead of the low will conditionally favor a mix of organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures -- posing a risk of damaging winds and possibly a couple tornadoes. However, weak buoyancy and the potential for many storm interactions increase the overall conditionality of the tornado risk. ..Weinman.. 01/07/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed for the Day 2 forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Thornton/Elizalde-Garcia.. 01/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS tomorrow (Thursday), with an embedded mid-level trough impinging on the central/southern Plains as the mid-level trough (discussed in the Day 1 Outlook) approaches the Great Lakes. A surface low will quickly deepen while traversing the Mississippi Valley, resulting in strong westerly isallobaric surface flow across the southern High Plains. While 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds should become common, RH may only dip to 25 percent. Furthermore, several areas across portions of the Plains may experience appreciable rainfall accumulations early Thursday morning, which may dampen fuels. Given uncertainties in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread and potentially higher RH, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed for the Day 2 forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Thornton/Elizalde-Garcia.. 01/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS tomorrow (Thursday), with an embedded mid-level trough impinging on the central/southern Plains as the mid-level trough (discussed in the Day 1 Outlook) approaches the Great Lakes. A surface low will quickly deepen while traversing the Mississippi Valley, resulting in strong westerly isallobaric surface flow across the southern High Plains. While 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds should become common, RH may only dip to 25 percent. Furthermore, several areas across portions of the Plains may experience appreciable rainfall accumulations early Thursday morning, which may dampen fuels. Given uncertainties in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread and potentially higher RH, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley... Within a belt of broad/enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow, a negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying surface low will track northeastward from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes through the period. Strongly forced thunderstorms will be ongoing/spreading east-northeastward across OK at the start of the period. While poor midlevel lapse rates and only partially modified Gulf moisture will limit buoyancy for these storms, 50-60 kt of effective shear will support a few organized clusters/line segments and perhaps transient supercell structures. Isolated large hail will be the primary concern, though locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado will be possible with any surface-based storms that can evolve. This activity will spread/develop northeastward into the Ozarks and eventually the Lower OH Valley vicinity through the afternoon/evening, in tandem with the midlevel trough and surface low. Here, boundary-layer moisture and related buoyancy will become more limited with northward extent, though strengthening deep-layer flow/shear (to include a 50-kt low-level jet) will continue to support a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible through this corridor into the overnight hours ahead of an approaching front. Farther southeast, recent high-resolution guidance depicts a band of storms developing within broad/moist confluent low-level flow over the Lower MS Valley late in the period. While these storms will be on the eastern edge of the warm sector, strong low/deep-layer shear will yield a conditional severe risk. ...Arizona... Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe threat. ..Weinman.. 01/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley... Within a belt of broad/enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow, a negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying surface low will track northeastward from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes through the period. Strongly forced thunderstorms will be ongoing/spreading east-northeastward across OK at the start of the period. While poor midlevel lapse rates and only partially modified Gulf moisture will limit buoyancy for these storms, 50-60 kt of effective shear will support a few organized clusters/line segments and perhaps transient supercell structures. Isolated large hail will be the primary concern, though locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado will be possible with any surface-based storms that can evolve. This activity will spread/develop northeastward into the Ozarks and eventually the Lower OH Valley vicinity through the afternoon/evening, in tandem with the midlevel trough and surface low. Here, boundary-layer moisture and related buoyancy will become more limited with northward extent, though strengthening deep-layer flow/shear (to include a 50-kt low-level jet) will continue to support a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible through this corridor into the overnight hours ahead of an approaching front. Farther southeast, recent high-resolution guidance depicts a band of storms developing within broad/moist confluent low-level flow over the Lower MS Valley late in the period. While these storms will be on the eastern edge of the warm sector, strong low/deep-layer shear will yield a conditional severe risk. ...Arizona... Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe threat. ..Weinman.. 01/07/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, resulting in surface lee troughing and associated downslope across the High Plains during the afternoon hours. RH should dip to or just below 20 percent by afternoon peak heating, from western Texas to the Nebraska Panhandle. Pockets of occasional 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds may overlap with the aforementioned RH across parts of the Texas and Nebraska Panhandles, promoting locally Elevated conditions. Otherwise, surface conditions should remain generally below Elevated criteria over much of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, resulting in surface lee troughing and associated downslope across the High Plains during the afternoon hours. RH should dip to or just below 20 percent by afternoon peak heating, from western Texas to the Nebraska Panhandle. Pockets of occasional 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds may overlap with the aforementioned RH across parts of the Texas and Nebraska Panhandles, promoting locally Elevated conditions. Otherwise, surface conditions should remain generally below Elevated criteria over much of the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas northeastward into Oklahoma. ...Southwest TX into Central OK... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48. The aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX by early Thursday morning. A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning. As the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight, strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC period. Although the primary cyclone will remain near the CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of interest. Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK. Model-based soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear. An isolated risk for large hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of localized severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 01/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas northeastward into Oklahoma. ...Southwest TX into Central OK... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48. The aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX by early Thursday morning. A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning. As the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight, strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC period. Although the primary cyclone will remain near the CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of interest. Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK. Model-based soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear. An isolated risk for large hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of localized severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 01/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas northeastward into Oklahoma. ...Southwest TX into Central OK... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a compact cyclone just off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. This cyclone is forecast to move quickly eastward across southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico throughout the day today, devolving into an open wave. This wave will likely pivot into a more negative tilt by early tomorrow as it moves across the southern High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this wave, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau. Significant mass response, and associated airmass modification, will occur across the southern Plains ahead of the this low, with the low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) currently confined to the TX Coastal Plain and South TX likely reaching southern OK by early tomorrow. Expectation is for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave to interact with the northwestern periphery of this moisture return during the last few hours of the period (i.e. 08Z-12Z Wednesday), resulting in elevated thunderstorms from southwest TX into central OK. Buoyancy will be modest (i.e. MUCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg), fostered by a combination of steepening mid-level lapse rates and increased low to mid-level moisture. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 60 kt) will be in place as well, supporting the potential that some of these thunderstorms are more robust/organized. Given the low-level stability, primary risk with the more organized storms is likely hail, but some isolated gusts maybe be strong enough to penetrate the low-level stability as well. ...Pacific Northwest... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward through the Pacific Northwest today, followed closely by another southeastward-progressing shortwave that moves into northern CA. Cold mid-level temperatures will foster scant buoyancy, and the frontal band associated with this lead wave will likely feature some deeper convective elements capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas northeastward into Oklahoma. ...Southwest TX into Central OK... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a compact cyclone just off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. This cyclone is forecast to move quickly eastward across southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico throughout the day today, devolving into an open wave. This wave will likely pivot into a more negative tilt by early tomorrow as it moves across the southern High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this wave, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau. Significant mass response, and associated airmass modification, will occur across the southern Plains ahead of the this low, with the low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) currently confined to the TX Coastal Plain and South TX likely reaching southern OK by early tomorrow. Expectation is for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave to interact with the northwestern periphery of this moisture return during the last few hours of the period (i.e. 08Z-12Z Wednesday), resulting in elevated thunderstorms from southwest TX into central OK. Buoyancy will be modest (i.e. MUCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg), fostered by a combination of steepening mid-level lapse rates and increased low to mid-level moisture. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 60 kt) will be in place as well, supporting the potential that some of these thunderstorms are more robust/organized. Given the low-level stability, primary risk with the more organized storms is likely hail, but some isolated gusts maybe be strong enough to penetrate the low-level stability as well. ...Pacific Northwest... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward through the Pacific Northwest today, followed closely by another southeastward-progressing shortwave that moves into northern CA. Cold mid-level temperatures will foster scant buoyancy, and the frontal band associated with this lead wave will likely feature some deeper convective elements capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/07/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday... Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain. Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time. ...D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday... The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday... Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain. Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time. ...D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday... The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys... Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the lower Ohio Valley. Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F) will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low. Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet. The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible, especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area, where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place. ..Dean.. 01/07/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys... Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the lower Ohio Valley. Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F) will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low. Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet. The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible, especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area, where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place. ..Dean.. 01/07/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS tomorrow (Thursday), with an embedded mid-level trough impinging on the central/southern Plains as the mid-level trough (discussed in the Day 1 Outlook) approaches the Great Lakes. A surface low will quickly deepen while traversing the Mississippi Valley, resulting in strong westerly isallobaric surface flow across the southern High Plains. While 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds should become common, RH may only dip to 25 percent. Furthermore, several areas across portions of the Plains may experience appreciable rainfall accumulations early Thursday morning, which may dampen fuels. Given uncertainties in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread and potentially higher RH, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS tomorrow (Thursday), with an embedded mid-level trough impinging on the central/southern Plains as the mid-level trough (discussed in the Day 1 Outlook) approaches the Great Lakes. A surface low will quickly deepen while traversing the Mississippi Valley, resulting in strong westerly isallobaric surface flow across the southern High Plains. While 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds should become common, RH may only dip to 25 percent. Furthermore, several areas across portions of the Plains may experience appreciable rainfall accumulations early Thursday morning, which may dampen fuels. Given uncertainties in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread and potentially higher RH, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more