Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns limited/low confidence through the extended period. A quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the Plains D3/Wednesday with some lingering Elevated fire weather conditions across eastern New Mexico. The next longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on D4/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs, southerly flow will increase with moisture advection into the western portion of the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and Missouri River Valleys. Guidance has continued to differ on exactly how far into the Plains this moisture reaches, but the trend continues to be for more widespread wetting rainfall D4/Thursday, which may aid in improving status of fuels and mitigating any widespread fire weather concerns. As it stands, guidance suggests a gradient in precipitation amounts extending from central Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward. It is possible that portions of western Texas remain drier with less meaningful precipitation. There is some indication that on D5/Friday, strong and dry post frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the departing low. This may lead to some overlap of windy/dry conditions across portions of western and north-central Texas. Confidence is low in including any areas at this time with potential precipitation unknown on D4/Thursday. Should precipitation totals be light across portions of western Texas, an area may need to be included in upcoming outlook updates. ..Thornton.. 01/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns limited/low confidence through the extended period. A quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the Plains D3/Wednesday with some lingering Elevated fire weather conditions across eastern New Mexico. The next longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on D4/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs, southerly flow will increase with moisture advection into the western portion of the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and Missouri River Valleys. Guidance has continued to differ on exactly how far into the Plains this moisture reaches, but the trend continues to be for more widespread wetting rainfall D4/Thursday, which may aid in improving status of fuels and mitigating any widespread fire weather concerns. As it stands, guidance suggests a gradient in precipitation amounts extending from central Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward. It is possible that portions of western Texas remain drier with less meaningful precipitation. There is some indication that on D5/Friday, strong and dry post frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the departing low. This may lead to some overlap of windy/dry conditions across portions of western and north-central Texas. Confidence is low in including any areas at this time with potential precipitation unknown on D4/Thursday. Should precipitation totals be light across portions of western Texas, an area may need to be included in upcoming outlook updates. ..Thornton.. 01/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... There are no changes made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 01/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026/ ...Discussion... A progressive low-amplitude flow regime will persist over the CONUS, with split flow along the West Coast including a southern-stream upper low off the coast of California. Semi-steep mid-level lapse rates exist in proximity to the upper low near the north-central California coast, with related isolated thunderstorm potential mainly early today. However, this thermodynamically conducive environment will trend less favorable over time. Additionally, a few lightning flashes may occur today across the central Rockies in association with an eastward-moving shortwave trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... There are no changes made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 01/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026/ ...Discussion... A progressive low-amplitude flow regime will persist over the CONUS, with split flow along the West Coast including a southern-stream upper low off the coast of California. Semi-steep mid-level lapse rates exist in proximity to the upper low near the north-central California coast, with related isolated thunderstorm potential mainly early today. However, this thermodynamically conducive environment will trend less favorable over time. Additionally, a few lightning flashes may occur today across the central Rockies in association with an eastward-moving shortwave trough. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... An upper low currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to progress eastward into the southern Plains by late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Gradual low-level moistening will occur through the day across TX and into OK as low-level flow strengthens in response to steady cyclogenesis across the Plains. Additionally, ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave will promote adequate destabilization for MUCAPE values of around 500 J/kg between 06-12 UTC across northern TX into OK and the Ozarks. While buoyancy profiles will most likely remain too limited for substantially deep convection, strengthening wind profiles may support transient organized storms overnight across northern TX into parts of OK. Confidence remains too limited at this time to introduce risk probabilities, but highlights may be needed if new guidance trends towards the more aggressive extended-range RRFS solutions. ...WA/OR Coast... Strong ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with an approaching upper trough will once again support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms off and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest through the day Wednesday. Lifted indices on the order of -1 to -2 C suggest that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too limited for strong convection and any appreciable severe threat. ..Moore.. 01/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... An upper low currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to progress eastward into the southern Plains by late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Gradual low-level moistening will occur through the day across TX and into OK as low-level flow strengthens in response to steady cyclogenesis across the Plains. Additionally, ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave will promote adequate destabilization for MUCAPE values of around 500 J/kg between 06-12 UTC across northern TX into OK and the Ozarks. While buoyancy profiles will most likely remain too limited for substantially deep convection, strengthening wind profiles may support transient organized storms overnight across northern TX into parts of OK. Confidence remains too limited at this time to introduce risk probabilities, but highlights may be needed if new guidance trends towards the more aggressive extended-range RRFS solutions. ...WA/OR Coast... Strong ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with an approaching upper trough will once again support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms off and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest through the day Wednesday. Lifted indices on the order of -1 to -2 C suggest that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too limited for strong convection and any appreciable severe threat. ..Moore.. 01/05/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Adjustments were made to extend the Elevated into the foothills in north-central Colorado. HREF signal shows decent probabilities of Elevated conditions amid dry fuels extending into this region by the afternoon. Otherwise, see previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Weak surface lee troughing is expected across the High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) beneath zonal westerly flow aloft. While dry surface air (i.e. 20-25 percent RH) will overspread the central and southern High Plains, westerly surface winds should be generally too weak to support widespread wildfire-spread potential over most locales. One exception may be portions of western Nebraska and immediate adjacent areas. Here the latest guidance depicts 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the 20-25 percent RH for several hours Tuesday afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Adjustments were made to extend the Elevated into the foothills in north-central Colorado. HREF signal shows decent probabilities of Elevated conditions amid dry fuels extending into this region by the afternoon. Otherwise, see previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Weak surface lee troughing is expected across the High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) beneath zonal westerly flow aloft. While dry surface air (i.e. 20-25 percent RH) will overspread the central and southern High Plains, westerly surface winds should be generally too weak to support widespread wildfire-spread potential over most locales. One exception may be portions of western Nebraska and immediate adjacent areas. Here the latest guidance depicts 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the 20-25 percent RH for several hours Tuesday afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country for tomorrow and tomorrow night. Latest guidance continues to show dry and/or stable conditions across the CONUS, which will limit the potential for lightning production. Isolated lightning strikes appear possible along/just off the WA coast between 9-12 UTC Wednesday as an upper low approaches the coast. However, model consensus is limited regarding the degree of inland buoyancy, so confidence remains low in thunderstorm potential. A sporadic lightning flash or two may also be possible across the lower Great Lakes within a weak warm advection regime, but as with the WA coast, confidence in any appreciable buoyancy remains too limited for 10% thunderstorm coverage. ..Moore.. 01/05/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... The Critical area across the Texas Panhandle was expanded southward slightly with this update. Trends have been for the corridor of strongest winds to extend further south and west. This is supported by morning HREF ensemble data, with surface observations this morning showing sustained westerly to southwesterly winds approaching 20-25 mph ahead of peak warming and mixing. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across the central U.S., with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to impinge on the southern Rockies today. Gradual surface low deepening will commence across the central Plains during the afternoon, encouraging both westerly isallobaric and downslope surface flow along portions of the central and southern High Plains, where Elevated highlights are in place. Here, fuels continue to cure given the absence of rain, and widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH should overspread these fuels for several hours this afternoon. Guidance consensus also depicts a corridor of locally stronger flow (i.e. 20 mph winds amid 15 percent RH) across portions of the Texas Panhandle, where Critical highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive low-amplitude flow regime will persist over the CONUS, with split flow along the West Coast including a southern-stream upper low off the coast of California. Semi-steep mid-level lapse rates exist in proximity to the upper low near the north-central California coast, with related isolated thunderstorm potential mainly early today. However, this thermodynamically conducive environment will trend less favorable over time. Additionally, a few lightning flashes may occur today across the central Rockies in association with an eastward-moving shortwave trough. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 01/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive low-amplitude flow regime will persist over the CONUS, with split flow along the West Coast including a southern-stream upper low off the coast of California. Semi-steep mid-level lapse rates exist in proximity to the upper low near the north-central California coast, with related isolated thunderstorm potential mainly early today. However, this thermodynamically conducive environment will trend less favorable over time. Additionally, a few lightning flashes may occur today across the central Rockies in association with an eastward-moving shortwave trough. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 01/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Largely zonal mid-level flow currently extends across the CONUS, although upper troughing is just off the West Coast. Complex evolution is anticipated with this upper troughing throughout the period as a more progressive shortwave trough moves within its northern periphery and a shortwave within its southern periphery dig south/southeast. This will result in a bifurcation of the upper troughing, with the southern shortwave evolving into a cyclone off the central/southern CA coast. This evolution will result in persistent large-scale forcing for ascent, and associated mid-level cooling, along the northern/central CA Coast. Resulting thermodynamic profiles could support isolated lightning flashes with any deeper, more persistent convection. This appears most likely from this morning through the early afternoon. Additionally, a lead shortwave trough is ejecting across the Four Corners and expected to move through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley. Modest buoyancy is anticipated ahead of this trough across UT, southwest WY, and northwest CO, which could result in a few lightning flashes within any deeper convection associated with this wave. Low-level southwesterly flow will increase ahead of this wave as it moves across central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. Associated warm-air advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures could result in enough elevated buoyancy for weak convection capable of producing lightning from southern MN across northern IA/southwest WI into northern IL. However, probabilities for this still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Largely zonal mid-level flow currently extends across the CONUS, although upper troughing is just off the West Coast. Complex evolution is anticipated with this upper troughing throughout the period as a more progressive shortwave trough moves within its northern periphery and a shortwave within its southern periphery dig south/southeast. This will result in a bifurcation of the upper troughing, with the southern shortwave evolving into a cyclone off the central/southern CA coast. This evolution will result in persistent large-scale forcing for ascent, and associated mid-level cooling, along the northern/central CA Coast. Resulting thermodynamic profiles could support isolated lightning flashes with any deeper, more persistent convection. This appears most likely from this morning through the early afternoon. Additionally, a lead shortwave trough is ejecting across the Four Corners and expected to move through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley. Modest buoyancy is anticipated ahead of this trough across UT, southwest WY, and northwest CO, which could result in a few lightning flashes within any deeper convection associated with this wave. Low-level southwesterly flow will increase ahead of this wave as it moves across central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. Associated warm-air advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures could result in enough elevated buoyancy for weak convection capable of producing lightning from southern MN across northern IA/southwest WI into northern IL. However, probabilities for this still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Largely zonal mid-level flow currently extends across the CONUS, although upper troughing is just off the West Coast. Complex evolution is anticipated with this upper troughing throughout the period as a more progressive shortwave trough moves within its northern periphery and a shortwave within its southern periphery dig south/southeast. This will result in a bifurcation of the upper troughing, with the southern shortwave evolving into a cyclone off the central/southern CA coast. This evolution will result in persistent large-scale forcing for ascent, and associated mid-level cooling, along the northern/central CA Coast. Resulting thermodynamic profiles could support isolated lightning flashes with any deeper, more persistent convection. This appears most likely from this morning through the early afternoon. Additionally, a lead shortwave trough is ejecting across the Four Corners and expected to move through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley. Modest buoyancy is anticipated ahead of this trough across UT, southwest WY, and northwest CO, which could result in a few lightning flashes within any deeper convection associated with this wave. Low-level southwesterly flow will increase ahead of this wave as it moves across central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. Associated warm-air advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures could result in enough elevated buoyancy for weak convection capable of producing lightning from southern MN across northern IA/southwest WI into northern IL. However, probabilities for this still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/05/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The noticeable model differences on D3/Wednesday in the evolution of a low-latitude shortwave impulse, ejecting ahead of an amplifying upper trough over the West, persist into D4/Thursday. This renders low confidence in a greater than low-probability severe risk on Thursday, which appears roughly centered on the Ark-La-Tex to Mid-South. Peak severe potential still appears centered on D5/Friday. Predictability remains sub-optimal with the basal portion of the amplified upper trough from the Southwest. This renders large spread across guidance in timing and amplitude of downstream cyclogenesis from the south-central Great Plains towards the Great Lakes, impacting the breadth of severe potential. However, with preceding days of airmass modification from the western Gulf, a pronounced wintertime warm-moist sector should become established towards the Lower OH Valley vicinity. This should be coincident with a broad swath of strong southwesterly mid-level flow that should be strengthening during the period. The trio of latest NCAR ECENS-based and SPC-CSU GEFS-based ML probabilities have trended upward again with similarly large 15 percent regions. Meanwhile, the NSSL GEFS-based V1.2 has increased back to a 10 percent, but displaced farther south. For this forecast, have opted to include a 15 percent highlight, centered on the Lower MS to Lower OH Valleys where confidence is greater for a favorable convective environment on Friday afternoon to night despite the modest synoptic-scale predictability. ML probs for D6/Saturday remain low, with only the NCAR_Pangu highlighting a 5 percent area. But given the aforementioned timing differences with the evolution of the upper trough/surface cyclogenesis, very fast deep-layer wind fields could persist atop a more limited thermodynamic environment. A conditional convective damaging wind threat seems apparent, with low confidence on spatial extent/amplitude at this time range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The noticeable model differences on D3/Wednesday in the evolution of a low-latitude shortwave impulse, ejecting ahead of an amplifying upper trough over the West, persist into D4/Thursday. This renders low confidence in a greater than low-probability severe risk on Thursday, which appears roughly centered on the Ark-La-Tex to Mid-South. Peak severe potential still appears centered on D5/Friday. Predictability remains sub-optimal with the basal portion of the amplified upper trough from the Southwest. This renders large spread across guidance in timing and amplitude of downstream cyclogenesis from the south-central Great Plains towards the Great Lakes, impacting the breadth of severe potential. However, with preceding days of airmass modification from the western Gulf, a pronounced wintertime warm-moist sector should become established towards the Lower OH Valley vicinity. This should be coincident with a broad swath of strong southwesterly mid-level flow that should be strengthening during the period. The trio of latest NCAR ECENS-based and SPC-CSU GEFS-based ML probabilities have trended upward again with similarly large 15 percent regions. Meanwhile, the NSSL GEFS-based V1.2 has increased back to a 10 percent, but displaced farther south. For this forecast, have opted to include a 15 percent highlight, centered on the Lower MS to Lower OH Valleys where confidence is greater for a favorable convective environment on Friday afternoon to night despite the modest synoptic-scale predictability. ML probs for D6/Saturday remain low, with only the NCAR_Pangu highlighting a 5 percent area. But given the aforementioned timing differences with the evolution of the upper trough/surface cyclogenesis, very fast deep-layer wind fields could persist atop a more limited thermodynamic environment. A conditional convective damaging wind threat seems apparent, with low confidence on spatial extent/amplitude at this time range. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night. ...Coastal WA/OR... A shortwave trough should reach the coastal Pacific Northwest by midday/early afternoon Wednesday, before amplifying inland into the Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Cold mid-level temperatures of -30 to -35 C at 500 mb in conjunction with onshore low-level flow should yield scant surface-based buoyancy along the immediate coast by late morning. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible through the afternoon amid widely scattered low-topped convection near and in the wake of trough passage. ...West TX to the Ozarks... In response to the aforementioned amplifying upper trough, a low-latitude shortwave trough will accelerate east-northeast from west of Baja CA. How far downstream this trough reaches by 12Z Thursday remains uncertain. The 00Z EC-AIFS has been quite consistent with a slower ejection and appears more reasonable given typical guidance biases. It is an outlier along with the 00Z GFS in holding the trough over northwest Mexico, while the majority of guidance has it ejecting onto the southern High Plains. This will impact the initial amplitude of cyclogenesis over the OK/northern TX Panhandles vicinity through Wednesday night. Modified low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will initially be modest beneath an elevated mixed layer. Forecast soundings also suggest weak lapse rates with nearly saturated upper-level profiles well downstream of the low-latitude trough. As such, elevated buoyancy should increase but remain weak. Guidance also has pronounced differences in the degree of convective development prior to 12Z Thursday, likely related to the degree of preceding MUCIN and timing of strengthening large-scale ascent. Opted to broadly aligned with the low 03Z SREF calibrated thunderstorm probabilities pending potentially greater guidance consistency in later outlooks. ..Grams.. 01/05/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night. ...Coastal WA/OR... A shortwave trough should reach the coastal Pacific Northwest by midday/early afternoon Wednesday, before amplifying inland into the Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Cold mid-level temperatures of -30 to -35 C at 500 mb in conjunction with onshore low-level flow should yield scant surface-based buoyancy along the immediate coast by late morning. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible through the afternoon amid widely scattered low-topped convection near and in the wake of trough passage. ...West TX to the Ozarks... In response to the aforementioned amplifying upper trough, a low-latitude shortwave trough will accelerate east-northeast from west of Baja CA. How far downstream this trough reaches by 12Z Thursday remains uncertain. The 00Z EC-AIFS has been quite consistent with a slower ejection and appears more reasonable given typical guidance biases. It is an outlier along with the 00Z GFS in holding the trough over northwest Mexico, while the majority of guidance has it ejecting onto the southern High Plains. This will impact the initial amplitude of cyclogenesis over the OK/northern TX Panhandles vicinity through Wednesday night. Modified low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will initially be modest beneath an elevated mixed layer. Forecast soundings also suggest weak lapse rates with nearly saturated upper-level profiles well downstream of the low-latitude trough. As such, elevated buoyancy should increase but remain weak. Guidance also has pronounced differences in the degree of convective development prior to 12Z Thursday, likely related to the degree of preceding MUCIN and timing of strengthening large-scale ascent. Opted to broadly aligned with the low 03Z SREF calibrated thunderstorm probabilities pending potentially greater guidance consistency in later outlooks. ..Grams.. 01/05/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Weak surface lee troughing is expected across the High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) beneath zonal westerly flow aloft. While dry surface air (i.e. 20-25 percent RH) will overspread the central and southern High Plains, westerly surface winds should be generally too weak to support widespread wildfire-spread potential over most locales. One exception may be portions of western Nebraska and immediate adjacent areas. Here the latest guidance depicts 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the 20-25 percent RH for several hours Tuesday afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more