Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Saturday...
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast
into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on
D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and
progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A
deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley
toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps
through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared
convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday
morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the
southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually
overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these
regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward
extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of
the warm sector with time.
...D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday...
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL
Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to
limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the
wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize
severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Saturday...
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast
into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on
D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and
progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A
deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley
toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps
through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared
convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday
morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the
southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually
overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these
regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward
extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of
the warm sector with time.
...D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday...
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL
Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to
limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the
wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize
severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday
from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and
Southeast.
...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH
Valleys...
Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to
move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of
this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies
and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and
potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains
regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop
and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the
lower Ohio Valley.
Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F)
will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing
cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from
south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north
and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in
weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will
remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to
develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in
response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low.
Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with
multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm
sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and
into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat
from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with
increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet.
The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential
for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible,
especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area,
where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday
from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and
Southeast.
...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH
Valleys...
Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to
move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of
this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies
and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and
potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains
regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop
and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the
lower Ohio Valley.
Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F)
will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing
cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from
south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north
and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in
weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will
remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to
develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in
response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low.
Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with
multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm
sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and
into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat
from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with
increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet.
The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential
for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible,
especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area,
where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS tomorrow
(Thursday), with an embedded mid-level trough impinging on the
central/southern Plains as the mid-level trough (discussed in the
Day 1 Outlook) approaches the Great Lakes. A surface low will
quickly deepen while traversing the Mississippi Valley, resulting in
strong westerly isallobaric surface flow across the southern High
Plains. While 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds should
become common, RH may only dip to 25 percent. Furthermore, several
areas across portions of the Plains may experience appreciable
rainfall accumulations early Thursday morning, which may dampen
fuels. Given uncertainties in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread
and potentially higher RH, fire weather highlights have been
withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS tomorrow
(Thursday), with an embedded mid-level trough impinging on the
central/southern Plains as the mid-level trough (discussed in the
Day 1 Outlook) approaches the Great Lakes. A surface low will
quickly deepen while traversing the Mississippi Valley, resulting in
strong westerly isallobaric surface flow across the southern High
Plains. While 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds should
become common, RH may only dip to 25 percent. Furthermore, several
areas across portions of the Plains may experience appreciable
rainfall accumulations early Thursday morning, which may dampen
fuels. Given uncertainties in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread
and potentially higher RH, fire weather highlights have been
withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today,
resulting in surface lee troughing and associated downslope across
the High Plains during the afternoon hours. RH should dip to or just
below 20 percent by afternoon peak heating, from western Texas to
the Nebraska Panhandle. Pockets of occasional 15 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds may overlap with the aforementioned
RH across parts of the Texas and Nebraska Panhandles, promoting
locally Elevated conditions. Otherwise, surface conditions should
remain generally below Elevated criteria over much of the southern
High Plains.
..Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today,
resulting in surface lee troughing and associated downslope across
the High Plains during the afternoon hours. RH should dip to or just
below 20 percent by afternoon peak heating, from western Texas to
the Nebraska Panhandle. Pockets of occasional 15 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds may overlap with the aforementioned
RH across parts of the Texas and Nebraska Panhandles, promoting
locally Elevated conditions. Otherwise, surface conditions should
remain generally below Elevated criteria over much of the southern
High Plains.
..Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS
Valley...
A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated
surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High
Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will
impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above
500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning,
resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be
quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of
producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal
Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with
recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most
guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated,
but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into
southeast KS.
With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy,
but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for
localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and
possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in
conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of
severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to
eventually outpace returning low-level moisture.
Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts
of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to
remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak,
low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains
inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this
region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive,
while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection
can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally
damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late
afternoon into part of Thursday night.
...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS
Valley...
A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated
surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High
Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will
impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above
500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning,
resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be
quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of
producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal
Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with
recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most
guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated,
but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into
southeast KS.
With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy,
but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for
localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and
possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in
conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of
severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to
eventually outpace returning low-level moisture.
Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts
of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to
remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak,
low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains
inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this
region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive,
while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection
can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally
damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late
afternoon into part of Thursday night.
...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.
...West and Northwest Texas/Oklahoma...
A mid-level trough will move quickly east-northeastward from the
eastern Pacific this morning to the southern Plains tonight. Ahead
of the system, a lee surface trough will develop across the High
Plains, as winds become south to southeasterly over much of the
southern Plains. In response, moisture advection will increase over
the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northwestward into
parts of west-central and north-central Texas by midnight. Along the
northwestern edge of this airmass, low-level convergence is forecast
to increase after midnight, which will aid scattered thunderstorm
development during the overnight period. Instability along a
southwest-to-northeast corridor is forecast to remain weak, with
MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg. In addition, a low-level capping
inversion just the east of the instability axis will keep much of
the convection elevated. In spite of these negative factors,
effective shear will be in the 40 to 50 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment could support a marginal severe threat with cells that
rotate. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible, mainly
in the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.
...West and Northwest Texas/Oklahoma...
A mid-level trough will move quickly east-northeastward from the
eastern Pacific this morning to the southern Plains tonight. Ahead
of the system, a lee surface trough will develop across the High
Plains, as winds become south to southeasterly over much of the
southern Plains. In response, moisture advection will increase over
the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northwestward into
parts of west-central and north-central Texas by midnight. Along the
northwestern edge of this airmass, low-level convergence is forecast
to increase after midnight, which will aid scattered thunderstorm
development during the overnight period. Instability along a
southwest-to-northeast corridor is forecast to remain weak, with
MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg. In addition, a low-level capping
inversion just the east of the instability axis will keep much of
the convection elevated. In spite of these negative factors,
effective shear will be in the 40 to 50 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment could support a marginal severe threat with cells that
rotate. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible, mainly
in the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe threat will develop across the U.S. through daybreak on
Wednesday.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys tonight, as flow remains zonal from the northern Rockies
into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will remain
over the south-central U.S. Limited large-scale ascent over the
continental U.S. will make thunderstorm development unlikely through
daybreak on Wednesday. No severe threat is forecast.
..Broyles.. 01/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe threat will develop across the U.S. through daybreak on
Wednesday.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys tonight, as flow remains zonal from the northern Rockies
into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will remain
over the south-central U.S. Limited large-scale ascent over the
continental U.S. will make thunderstorm development unlikely through
daybreak on Wednesday. No severe threat is forecast.
..Broyles.. 01/07/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
A longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on
D3/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs, southerly flow will
increase with moisture advection into the western portion of the
Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and Missouri River Valleys.
Widespread rain/thunderstorm activity can be expected across some
portions of the central/eastern Southern Plains into the
Mississippi/Missouri River Valley. Less precipitation is likely
across portions of western Texas into western Oklahoma, where fire
concerns are possible D4/Friday and 5/Saturday.
...(D4/Friday - D5/Saturday) Southwestern/West-Central Texas...
Model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a steep gradient
in precipitation amounts extending from central
Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward.
Confidence is increasing that portions of western Texas into western
Oklahoma will receive little to no precipitation. Latest fuels
guidance suggests grass loading is high with freeze cured grasses
present and ERCs around the 80th percentile. Strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. Overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20
percent are expected to overlap sustained northwesterly flow around
20 mph. A 40 percent area was included at this time given some
uncertainty still in where the gradient of higher precipitation will
be. Should precipitation totals exceed or not meet expectation,
some reduction or expansion of this area may be needed in upcoming
outlooks.
Lingering Elevated to Critical conditions may be possible again
across portions of southwestern Texas into far southwestern Oklahoma
on D5/Saturday. For now confidence is too low to include any areas
at this time.
..Thornton/Elizalde-garcia.. 01/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
A longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on
D3/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs, southerly flow will
increase with moisture advection into the western portion of the
Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and Missouri River Valleys.
Widespread rain/thunderstorm activity can be expected across some
portions of the central/eastern Southern Plains into the
Mississippi/Missouri River Valley. Less precipitation is likely
across portions of western Texas into western Oklahoma, where fire
concerns are possible D4/Friday and 5/Saturday.
...(D4/Friday - D5/Saturday) Southwestern/West-Central Texas...
Model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a steep gradient
in precipitation amounts extending from central
Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward.
Confidence is increasing that portions of western Texas into western
Oklahoma will receive little to no precipitation. Latest fuels
guidance suggests grass loading is high with freeze cured grasses
present and ERCs around the 80th percentile. Strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. Overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20
percent are expected to overlap sustained northwesterly flow around
20 mph. A 40 percent area was included at this time given some
uncertainty still in where the gradient of higher precipitation will
be. Should precipitation totals exceed or not meet expectation,
some reduction or expansion of this area may be needed in upcoming
outlooks.
Lingering Elevated to Critical conditions may be possible again
across portions of southwestern Texas into far southwestern Oklahoma
on D5/Saturday. For now confidence is too low to include any areas
at this time.
..Thornton/Elizalde-garcia.. 01/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow
(Wednesday), supporting surface low development over the southern
High Plains. While moisture return is anticipated over the southern
Plains, some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of
western Texas, as well as the central High Plains. In these
aforementioned areas, sustained westerly winds may briefly exceed 15
mph. However, guidance varies in terms of how low RH will dip by
afternoon peak heating, with some guidance showing RH reaching 20
percent in some spots, with other members showing RH only dipping
into the 25-30 percent range on a widespread basis. Given dry fuels,
locally Elevated conditions are possible, but do not seem widespread
enough to warrant highlights at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 01/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026/
...Discussion...
A progressive upper-flow pattern will continue over the CONUS with
some amplification occurring through tonight within split flow over
the West. Convective potential will be essentially nil over the
CONUS.
A southern-stream shortwave trough off the coast of California will
spread southeastward toward Baja, with any related
thunderstorm-conducive environment expected to remain well offshore.
Multiple shortwave troughs will cross or approach the Pacific
Northwest tonight. Cooling mid-level temperatures may contribute to
weak buoyancy and some potential for a few lightning flashes, but
such potential is likely to remain below 10 percent.
Read more
