Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday. Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday. In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday. Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday. In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday. Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday. In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...West Coast to the CA Central Valley... Latest guidance remains reasonably consistent with the evolution of the persistent eastern Pacific upper trough on Sunday. One embedded shortwave impulse should impinge on western WA early Sunday, while a separate impulse shifts inland across southern CA through Sunday night. Guidance is also highly consistent in depicting minimal buoyancy in vicinity of these impulses, likely yielding lower- probability thunder potential compared to D2/Saturday. Sporadic/very isolated lightning coverage will probably diurnally peak on Sunday afternoon, where cold mid-level temperatures are present along most of the West Coast into the Central Valley. ..Grams.. 01/02/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...West Coast to the CA Central Valley... Latest guidance remains reasonably consistent with the evolution of the persistent eastern Pacific upper trough on Sunday. One embedded shortwave impulse should impinge on western WA early Sunday, while a separate impulse shifts inland across southern CA through Sunday night. Guidance is also highly consistent in depicting minimal buoyancy in vicinity of these impulses, likely yielding lower- probability thunder potential compared to D2/Saturday. Sporadic/very isolated lightning coverage will probably diurnally peak on Sunday afternoon, where cold mid-level temperatures are present along most of the West Coast into the Central Valley. ..Grams.. 01/02/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...West Coast to the CA Central Valley... Latest guidance remains reasonably consistent with the evolution of the persistent eastern Pacific upper trough on Sunday. One embedded shortwave impulse should impinge on western WA early Sunday, while a separate impulse shifts inland across southern CA through Sunday night. Guidance is also highly consistent in depicting minimal buoyancy in vicinity of these impulses, likely yielding lower- probability thunder potential compared to D2/Saturday. Sporadic/very isolated lightning coverage will probably diurnally peak on Sunday afternoon, where cold mid-level temperatures are present along most of the West Coast into the Central Valley. ..Grams.. 01/02/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...West Coast to the CA Central Valley... Latest guidance remains reasonably consistent with the evolution of the persistent eastern Pacific upper trough on Sunday. One embedded shortwave impulse should impinge on western WA early Sunday, while a separate impulse shifts inland across southern CA through Sunday night. Guidance is also highly consistent in depicting minimal buoyancy in vicinity of these impulses, likely yielding lower- probability thunder potential compared to D2/Saturday. Sporadic/very isolated lightning coverage will probably diurnally peak on Sunday afternoon, where cold mid-level temperatures are present along most of the West Coast into the Central Valley. ..Grams.. 01/02/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The prevailing large-scale mid-level pattern will remain the same on Saturday (as compared to Friday) with a western ridge and eastern trough. The short-wave trough that will have moved across the Southern Plains on Friday will be absorbed into the eastern US longwave trough on Saturday. As this happens, low-level moisture will be drawn northward into the Southeast. To the west of this trough (across the Southern Plains), relative humidity will once again fall into the 20%s across portions of southern and southwest Texas, however, with the departure of the mid-level wave, winds should be light enough to preclude fire-weather highlights. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The prevailing large-scale mid-level pattern will remain the same on Saturday (as compared to Friday) with a western ridge and eastern trough. The short-wave trough that will have moved across the Southern Plains on Friday will be absorbed into the eastern US longwave trough on Saturday. As this happens, low-level moisture will be drawn northward into the Southeast. To the west of this trough (across the Southern Plains), relative humidity will once again fall into the 20%s across portions of southern and southwest Texas, however, with the departure of the mid-level wave, winds should be light enough to preclude fire-weather highlights. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The prevailing large-scale mid-level pattern will remain the same on Saturday (as compared to Friday) with a western ridge and eastern trough. The short-wave trough that will have moved across the Southern Plains on Friday will be absorbed into the eastern US longwave trough on Saturday. As this happens, low-level moisture will be drawn northward into the Southeast. To the west of this trough (across the Southern Plains), relative humidity will once again fall into the 20%s across portions of southern and southwest Texas, however, with the departure of the mid-level wave, winds should be light enough to preclude fire-weather highlights. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The prevailing large-scale mid-level pattern will remain the same on Saturday (as compared to Friday) with a western ridge and eastern trough. The short-wave trough that will have moved across the Southern Plains on Friday will be absorbed into the eastern US longwave trough on Saturday. As this happens, low-level moisture will be drawn northward into the Southeast. To the west of this trough (across the Southern Plains), relative humidity will once again fall into the 20%s across portions of southern and southwest Texas, however, with the departure of the mid-level wave, winds should be light enough to preclude fire-weather highlights. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying. This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph range with stronger gusts. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying. This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph range with stronger gusts. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying. This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph range with stronger gusts. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying. This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph range with stronger gusts. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF CA/OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening. ...Southeast... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with low-probability tornado/wind threats. It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as storms cluster during the afternoon. ...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR... Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon, while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during the afternoon to early evening. The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal convective development across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells, which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado. Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur. The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk. ..Grams.. 01/02/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF CA/OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening. ...Southeast... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with low-probability tornado/wind threats. It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as storms cluster during the afternoon. ...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR... Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon, while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during the afternoon to early evening. The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal convective development across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells, which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado. Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur. The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk. ..Grams.. 01/02/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF CA/OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening. ...Southeast... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with low-probability tornado/wind threats. It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as storms cluster during the afternoon. ...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR... Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon, while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during the afternoon to early evening. The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal convective development across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells, which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado. Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur. The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk. ..Grams.. 01/02/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF CA/OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening. ...Southeast... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with low-probability tornado/wind threats. It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as storms cluster during the afternoon. ...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR... Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon, while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during the afternoon to early evening. The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal convective development across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells, which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado. Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur. The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk. ..Grams.. 01/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Gulf States... Weak short-wave trough is currently noted over the southern High Plains region. This feature is forecast to deamplify a bit as it tracks into the lower MS Valley around 18z. Late in the period, a stronger feature will dig into the Arklatx by 03/12z, but the lead short wave is expected to be the primary feature that induces a LLJ response across MS/AL/GA. Latest model guidance suggests weak elevated instability will develop across much of the central Gulf States, and this will prove more than adequate for elevated convective development along the nose of the LLJ, where warm advection will be maximized. Late in the period, weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across southeast LA but the primary forcing mechanism will be well north of this region and the prospect for organized severe appears limited. ...CA... Strong midlevel speed max will translate inland across northern CA after 03/06z. Profiles will cool as heights fall in response to this feature, and lower tropospheric lapse rates will steepen. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit significant moistening that will lead to weak buoyancy and the possibility for at least isolated thunderstorms as lifted parcels should be able to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. While wind fields will strengthen markedly, at this time it appears gusty winds would be the greatest risk with the more organized late-night convection. Severe threat appears too low to warrant probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 01/02/2026 Read more