Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions due to dry and breezy westerly winds are likely in portions of southeast Wyoming and perhaps along the eastern front of the southern Rockies this afternoon. Additionally, westerly winds of 10-15 mph with minimum RH of 30-40% are likely on portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula into north Florida and southeast Georgia resulting in locally elevated conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as relatively zonal upper flow (with small embedded impulses) becomes established over the central U.S., and another mid-level trough approaches the West Coast today. A surface low will develop across the southern Plains, encouraging modest downslope flow across the central and southern High Plains. Despite the stronger (15-25 mph) sustained westerly surface winds expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, higher RH values will mix eastward with the stronger flow, dampening wildfire-spread concerns to some degree. While localized wildfire-spread potential is still possible, these conditions appear too limited for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions due to dry and breezy westerly winds are likely in portions of southeast Wyoming and perhaps along the eastern front of the southern Rockies this afternoon. Additionally, westerly winds of 10-15 mph with minimum RH of 30-40% are likely on portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula into north Florida and southeast Georgia resulting in locally elevated conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as relatively zonal upper flow (with small embedded impulses) becomes established over the central U.S., and another mid-level trough approaches the West Coast today. A surface low will develop across the southern Plains, encouraging modest downslope flow across the central and southern High Plains. Despite the stronger (15-25 mph) sustained westerly surface winds expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, higher RH values will mix eastward with the stronger flow, dampening wildfire-spread concerns to some degree. While localized wildfire-spread potential is still possible, these conditions appear too limited for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds, and perhaps a brief weak tornado, could occur along a portion of coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA coast (about 220 miles west-southwest of Lompoc CA). This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward, reaching the coast early this morning before then progressing through central CA and into NV, deamplifying notably as it does. A jetlet, characterized by around 50 kt at 500 mb, will accompany this wave, spreading across central and southern CA in tandem with the wave's northeastward progress. The leading edge of this stronger flow aloft is being sampled by the VTX VAD. This overall progression is contributing to broad ascent across much of central/southern CA, evidenced by the widespread precipitation across the region. Some stronger ascent and associated deeper convection is occurring across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. Southern extent of this stronger ascent will likely contribute to some deeper convection from the Channel Islands to the southern CA Coast. Mid-level temperatures will be cooling across this region as well, which could result in modest buoyancy within a relatively shallow layer. This could result in enough buoyancy for a few lightning flashes, although lapse rates are generally expected to remain poor. Wind profiles support the potential for a strong, convectively aided gust, and perhaps even a brief tornado, if updraft depth and persistence is sufficient. However, given the scarcity of buoyancy, the majority of convection will remain sub severe. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 01/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds, and perhaps a brief weak tornado, could occur along a portion of coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA coast (about 220 miles west-southwest of Lompoc CA). This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward, reaching the coast early this morning before then progressing through central CA and into NV, deamplifying notably as it does. A jetlet, characterized by around 50 kt at 500 mb, will accompany this wave, spreading across central and southern CA in tandem with the wave's northeastward progress. The leading edge of this stronger flow aloft is being sampled by the VTX VAD. This overall progression is contributing to broad ascent across much of central/southern CA, evidenced by the widespread precipitation across the region. Some stronger ascent and associated deeper convection is occurring across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. Southern extent of this stronger ascent will likely contribute to some deeper convection from the Channel Islands to the southern CA Coast. Mid-level temperatures will be cooling across this region as well, which could result in modest buoyancy within a relatively shallow layer. This could result in enough buoyancy for a few lightning flashes, although lapse rates are generally expected to remain poor. Wind profiles support the potential for a strong, convectively aided gust, and perhaps even a brief tornado, if updraft depth and persistence is sufficient. However, given the scarcity of buoyancy, the majority of convection will remain sub severe. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 01/01/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2 percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2 percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday. Read more

MD 0002 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0002 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic into the Hudson Valley Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 010800Z - 011130Z SUMMARY...A snow squall currently over central/eastern Pennsylvania will continue east-southeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic early this morning. DISCUSSION...Radar data from KCCX and KBGM show a northeast/southwest-oriented snow squall moving southeastward at around 30 kt across central/eastern PA. This snow squall has been associated with visibility reductions below 1/4 mile and strong gusts under the more intense/organized portions of the band. The snow squall will continue tracking east-southeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic along the surging cold front, which will continue to support organized structure -- especially where temperatures remain below freezing ahead of the squall. Current expectations are for the snow squall to become less organized with eastward extent, though strong gusts and quick visibility reductions are still expected across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic for the next several hours. ..Weinman.. 01/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 41637502 42097416 42027369 41827333 41517325 41127349 40607437 40267490 39807577 39177711 39217762 39487801 39697785 40177692 41637502 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN CA TO COASTAL SOUTHWEST OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento Valley to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon during the late afternoon to evening. ...Southeast... A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress east across the Lower MS Valley on Saturday morning and off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday night. Attendant surface cyclone should remain weak and track from central AL to off coastal SC by evening. Timing of large-scale ascent with the trough should yield increasing convective coverage by late morning to midday, focused along the northeast Gulf Coast to the Savannah Valley. Much of the region should remain within the MLCAPE gradient as a plume of moderate buoyancy becomes established over the northwest Gulf to central Gulf Coast. Guidance consensus suggests that low-level winds may gradually dampen through the day and become displaced east of richer boundary-layer moisture as the surface low moves towards the coast. With a predominately west-southwesterly wind profile, deep-layer speed shear should be the primary driver of organized convection. A mix of all hazards appears plausible, although a corridor of greater damaging wind potential may be evident in later outlooks. ...Northern CA to coastal southwest OR... Guidance appears to be converging towards multiple shortwave impulses ejecting northeast from a large-scale trough off the West Coast. The more vigorous impulse should impinge on coastal OR around Saturday evening, while a separate impulse dampens from the Bay Area to the Sierra NV Mountains on Saturday afternoon. The southern impulse should be favorably timed with afternoon boundary-layer heating over the Sacramento Valley, where meager MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg may develop. Amid a swath of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies, an elongated hodograph could favor splitting weak supercell structures that pose a risk for a brief tornado and small hail. The northern impulse should be accompanied by very strong low-level southerlies from 60-70 kts at 850 mb. While buoyancy will remain scant, low-topped convection along the northern CA to southwest OR coast could pose a threat for severe gusts. ..Grams.. 01/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN CA TO COASTAL SOUTHWEST OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento Valley to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon during the late afternoon to evening. ...Southeast... A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress east across the Lower MS Valley on Saturday morning and off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday night. Attendant surface cyclone should remain weak and track from central AL to off coastal SC by evening. Timing of large-scale ascent with the trough should yield increasing convective coverage by late morning to midday, focused along the northeast Gulf Coast to the Savannah Valley. Much of the region should remain within the MLCAPE gradient as a plume of moderate buoyancy becomes established over the northwest Gulf to central Gulf Coast. Guidance consensus suggests that low-level winds may gradually dampen through the day and become displaced east of richer boundary-layer moisture as the surface low moves towards the coast. With a predominately west-southwesterly wind profile, deep-layer speed shear should be the primary driver of organized convection. A mix of all hazards appears plausible, although a corridor of greater damaging wind potential may be evident in later outlooks. ...Northern CA to coastal southwest OR... Guidance appears to be converging towards multiple shortwave impulses ejecting northeast from a large-scale trough off the West Coast. The more vigorous impulse should impinge on coastal OR around Saturday evening, while a separate impulse dampens from the Bay Area to the Sierra NV Mountains on Saturday afternoon. The southern impulse should be favorably timed with afternoon boundary-layer heating over the Sacramento Valley, where meager MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg may develop. Amid a swath of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies, an elongated hodograph could favor splitting weak supercell structures that pose a risk for a brief tornado and small hail. The northern impulse should be accompanied by very strong low-level southerlies from 60-70 kts at 850 mb. While buoyancy will remain scant, low-topped convection along the northern CA to southwest OR coast could pose a threat for severe gusts. ..Grams.. 01/01/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the central Plains, which will encourage the strengthening of a surface low along the Red River tomorrow (Friday). To the west of the surface low, dry downslope flow along the southern Rockies, in tandem with increased isallobaric flow, will support Elevated fire weather conditions across much of western into central TX Friday afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH for several hours Friday afternoon, and will overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the central Plains, which will encourage the strengthening of a surface low along the Red River tomorrow (Friday). To the west of the surface low, dry downslope flow along the southern Rockies, in tandem with increased isallobaric flow, will support Elevated fire weather conditions across much of western into central TX Friday afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH for several hours Friday afternoon, and will overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as relatively zonal upper flow (with small embedded impulses) becomes established over the central U.S., and another mid-level trough approaches the West Coast today. A surface low will develop across the southern Plains, encouraging modest downslope flow across the central and southern High Plains. Despite the stronger (15-25 mph) sustained westerly surface winds expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, higher RH values will mix eastward with the stronger flow, dampening wildfire-spread concerns to some degree. While localized wildfire-spread potential is still possible, these conditions appear too limited for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as relatively zonal upper flow (with small embedded impulses) becomes established over the central U.S., and another mid-level trough approaches the West Coast today. A surface low will develop across the southern Plains, encouraging modest downslope flow across the central and southern High Plains. Despite the stronger (15-25 mph) sustained westerly surface winds expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, higher RH values will mix eastward with the stronger flow, dampening wildfire-spread concerns to some degree. While localized wildfire-spread potential is still possible, these conditions appear too limited for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night. ...Central Gulf Coast and the Deep South... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should move across the Mid-South to the southern Appalachians. An upstream shortwave trough will progress from the Four Corners east-southeast across north TX. The 00Z NAM is an outlier with its phasing of these features, while other guidance maintains separate impulses. Weak elevated MUCAPE is anticipated with the lead impulse, along the northern periphery of lower-level moisture return emanating northeast of the northwest Gulf. Sufficient saturation/ascent should occur for increasing convection on Friday evening across parts of the interior Deep South to TN Valley. The southern portion of this activity may yield isolated thunder coverage on Friday night. Farther south, the outlier NAM appears aggressive with early morning Saturday convective development near the central Gulf Coast, amid strong deep-layer shear and modest near-surface buoyancy. However, most other parametrized guidance and especially CAMs struggle to generate deep convection through 12Z Saturday given weak lapse rates and rather dry mid-levels. Unconditional probabilities for hazard still appear to be below level-1 MRGL risk thresholds. ...Northern CA and southwest OR... A deep mid/upper trough will gradually approach the Pacific Coast through early Saturday, as an intense jet spreads into northern CA. Despite an initially pronounced low-level warm conveyor, instability is expected to remain negligible until Friday night. Gradual steepening of mid-level lapse rates should occur along coastal areas of northern CA and southwest OR, and potentially reach the Sacramento Valley prior to 12Z. This may support very isolated thunderstorm development overnight to early Saturday morning. Any lightning-producing convection could be coincident with strong gradient winds, but the convective contribution to damaging-wind potential will likely be limited by the expected scant buoyancy. ..Grams.. 01/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night. ...Central Gulf Coast and the Deep South... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should move across the Mid-South to the southern Appalachians. An upstream shortwave trough will progress from the Four Corners east-southeast across north TX. The 00Z NAM is an outlier with its phasing of these features, while other guidance maintains separate impulses. Weak elevated MUCAPE is anticipated with the lead impulse, along the northern periphery of lower-level moisture return emanating northeast of the northwest Gulf. Sufficient saturation/ascent should occur for increasing convection on Friday evening across parts of the interior Deep South to TN Valley. The southern portion of this activity may yield isolated thunder coverage on Friday night. Farther south, the outlier NAM appears aggressive with early morning Saturday convective development near the central Gulf Coast, amid strong deep-layer shear and modest near-surface buoyancy. However, most other parametrized guidance and especially CAMs struggle to generate deep convection through 12Z Saturday given weak lapse rates and rather dry mid-levels. Unconditional probabilities for hazard still appear to be below level-1 MRGL risk thresholds. ...Northern CA and southwest OR... A deep mid/upper trough will gradually approach the Pacific Coast through early Saturday, as an intense jet spreads into northern CA. Despite an initially pronounced low-level warm conveyor, instability is expected to remain negligible until Friday night. Gradual steepening of mid-level lapse rates should occur along coastal areas of northern CA and southwest OR, and potentially reach the Sacramento Valley prior to 12Z. This may support very isolated thunderstorm development overnight to early Saturday morning. Any lightning-producing convection could be coincident with strong gradient winds, but the convective contribution to damaging-wind potential will likely be limited by the expected scant buoyancy. ..Grams.. 01/01/2026 Read more

MD 0001 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0001 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and southern New York into central Pennsylvania...western Maryland...extreme northeastern West Virginia Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 010426Z - 010830Z SUMMARY...A snow squall should continue across portions of the northern Appalachians through at least early tonight. Brief periods of moderate to heavy snow, 30+ mph gusts, and rapidly reduced visibilities are all possible. DISCUSSION...Convergence along a surface cold front has increased over the past few hours as a 100+ kt 500 mb jet overspreads this boundary. As a result, a snow squall has developed. Reduced visibilities below a quarter mile have been observed, along with brief instances of moderate to heavy snowfall rates and gusts over 30 mph. The snow squall is expected to persist across portions of the northern Appalachians over the next few hours as the parent mid-level trough continues to amplify over the region, further increasing deep-layer ascent and the strength of the leading line in turn. Within the strongest portion of the snow squall, a rapid onset of 0.5-1.0 inch/hour snowfall rates could occur, with a rapid veering of the surface winds to the northwest at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts likely. Visibilities may drop below a quarter mile where the stronger winds and higher snowfall rates coincide. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 39437967 39748016 40148042 40478038 40808035 40897991 41457812 42387641 42967567 43137482 42877442 42447453 41837495 41157567 40527644 40117693 39747754 39427832 39357896 39437967 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds, and a perhaps a brief weak tornado, could occur along a portion of coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low about 300 mi WSW of Lompoc CA ejecting ENE in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift inland as a 500mb speed max translates across the Channel Islands toward southern NV by early evening. Left-exit region of this jet will overspread the southern interior valley with seasonally cool 500mb temperatures noted north of the jet. Even so, forecast instability is expected to remain weak as MUCAPE values should remain generally less than a few hundred J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates are also not expected to be particularly steep and this is reflected in the sparsity of lightning currently noted with convection beneath the offshore low. Latest thinking is scattered weak convection will be the primary concern with the frontal zone early in the period, and much of this activity may struggle to generate lightning despite the maritime influences that will prove instrumental for this activity. While some risk for gusty winds, and perhaps a brief weak tornado exists, the majority of convection will remain sub severe. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds, and a perhaps a brief weak tornado, could occur along a portion of coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low about 300 mi WSW of Lompoc CA ejecting ENE in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift inland as a 500mb speed max translates across the Channel Islands toward southern NV by early evening. Left-exit region of this jet will overspread the southern interior valley with seasonally cool 500mb temperatures noted north of the jet. Even so, forecast instability is expected to remain weak as MUCAPE values should remain generally less than a few hundred J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates are also not expected to be particularly steep and this is reflected in the sparsity of lightning currently noted with convection beneath the offshore low. Latest thinking is scattered weak convection will be the primary concern with the frontal zone early in the period, and much of this activity may struggle to generate lightning despite the maritime influences that will prove instrumental for this activity. While some risk for gusty winds, and perhaps a brief weak tornado exists, the majority of convection will remain sub severe. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern California late tonight. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is lifting northeast toward the southern CA coast as a 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough, but remaining offshore. Left exit region of this jet will encourage convection along the weak front as it surges toward the coast late tonight. Primary concern for lightning will be after 09z, but this activity will be elevated and within a poor instability environment. Severe risk appears minimal tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern California late tonight. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is lifting northeast toward the southern CA coast as a 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough, but remaining offshore. Left exit region of this jet will encourage convection along the weak front as it surges toward the coast late tonight. Primary concern for lightning will be after 09z, but this activity will be elevated and within a poor instability environment. Severe risk appears minimal tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/01/2026 Read more