Storm Prediction Center

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 31 22:29:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 31 22:29:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse and associated wind maxima moving into the Southern Plains along with a surface cyclone across the TX/OK Red River Valley should bring elevated winds to much of southern NM, and western/central TX on Day 3/Friday. As the mid-level trough and surface low move eastward into the Southeast, richer boundary layer moisture should bring more widespread, needed rainfall to the region. Low amplitude ridging across the central U.S. will persist through early next week, reintroducing well above normal temperatures maintaining dry conditions across the Great Plains. Lee trough development across the Great Plains could present an increased fire weather threat across portions of the Southern Plains on Day 6/Monday. ...Day 3/Friday - Texas... Breezy west/northwest winds supported by a deepening surface low across northern TX under a mid-level jet max are expected across NM and much of western and central TX Day 3/Friday. Limited RH reductions should reduce a higher end fire weather threat, but clear skies aiding in a well-mixed boundary layer with efficient downward momentum of higher wind gusts to the surface, expanding drought and above normal fuel loading supports introduction 40% critical probabilities for portions of the TX Permian Basin and central TX for Friday. ...Day 6/Monday - Southern High Plains... Another mid-level wave amid broad southwesterly flow and associated deepening lee trough across the Plains is expected to promote a dry return flow and broader downslope event across portions of the Southern High Plains on Day 6/Monday. Although some light precipitation is possible across the TX/OK Panhandle on Day 3/Friday, much of the region should remain dry and relatively warm through the weekend, contributing to drying of fuels. 40% critical probabilities were added to far eastern NM and the TX Panhandle/Cap Rock areas to highlight this potential. ...Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday.. Longer term ensemble model guidance evokes a decreasing forecast certainty in overall synoptic evolution for the middle of next week within a perhaps more active wave pattern. Increasing uncertainty in timing of next upper-level trough/lee trough evolution across the central U.S. around midweek precludes introduction of critical probabilities across the southern/central Plains where a more receptive fuelscape is likely. ..Williams.. 12/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern California late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...20Z Update Discussion... No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 12/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With upper ridging remaining prominent over the western CONUS and upper troughing centered across the eastern states, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal though tonight for a large majority of the CONUS. One exception will be across parts of southern CA late tonight into early Thursday morning, as an upper trough/low over the eastern Pacific gradually approaches the CA Coast by the end of the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, increasing large-scale ascent and gradually cooling mid-level temperatures preceding the upper trough/low may still support isolated convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, mainly after 01/06Z. Both MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear too weak to support a meaningful threat for organized severe thunderstorms through the end of the period (12Z Thursday morning). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern California late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...20Z Update Discussion... No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 12/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With upper ridging remaining prominent over the western CONUS and upper troughing centered across the eastern states, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal though tonight for a large majority of the CONUS. One exception will be across parts of southern CA late tonight into early Thursday morning, as an upper trough/low over the eastern Pacific gradually approaches the CA Coast by the end of the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, increasing large-scale ascent and gradually cooling mid-level temperatures preceding the upper trough/low may still support isolated convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, mainly after 01/06Z. Both MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear too weak to support a meaningful threat for organized severe thunderstorms through the end of the period (12Z Thursday morning). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southern Plains... A subtle mid-level impulse arriving to the southern Rockies along with an incipient lee trough/low development across eastern CO and the TX/OK Panhandles will support increasing west to southwest winds across much of central and northwestern TX/eastern NM Thursday. Westerly surface winds will be maximized across eastern NM and far west TX by Thursday afternoon, but also accompanied by a considerable rise in relative humidity and cloud cover as Pacific moisture intrudes in from the Southwest. Brief and localized elevated fire weather conditions where west-southwest winds of 15 mph amid a narrow corridor of relative humidity of 15-20% (locally 10%) align are possible across portions of the TX Panhandle and Northwest TX, prior to the influx of increased lower-level moisture through the afternoon. ..Williams.. 12/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Plains states will gradually flatten through the day tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level impulse impinges on the southern Rockies. Similar to Day 1, some dry downslope flow is possible along the lee of the Rockies, over the central and southern High Plains, with RH dipping below 20 percent in spots. Still, forecast surface wind fields should not be overly strong, so wildfire-spread potential should remain localized over the High Plains. Likewise, modestly dry conditions will persist along the Southeast Atlantic coastline, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights, though wildfire-spread potential will locally be non-zero. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southern Plains... A subtle mid-level impulse arriving to the southern Rockies along with an incipient lee trough/low development across eastern CO and the TX/OK Panhandles will support increasing west to southwest winds across much of central and northwestern TX/eastern NM Thursday. Westerly surface winds will be maximized across eastern NM and far west TX by Thursday afternoon, but also accompanied by a considerable rise in relative humidity and cloud cover as Pacific moisture intrudes in from the Southwest. Brief and localized elevated fire weather conditions where west-southwest winds of 15 mph amid a narrow corridor of relative humidity of 15-20% (locally 10%) align are possible across portions of the TX Panhandle and Northwest TX, prior to the influx of increased lower-level moisture through the afternoon. ..Williams.. 12/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Plains states will gradually flatten through the day tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level impulse impinges on the southern Rockies. Similar to Day 1, some dry downslope flow is possible along the lee of the Rockies, over the central and southern High Plains, with RH dipping below 20 percent in spots. Still, forecast surface wind fields should not be overly strong, so wildfire-spread potential should remain localized over the High Plains. Likewise, modestly dry conditions will persist along the Southeast Atlantic coastline, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights, though wildfire-spread potential will locally be non-zero. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as well as along coastal areas of central and northern California and southwest Orgeon. ...LA/MS/AL vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from the south-central Plains towards the TN Valley on Friday. A somewhat stronger upstream shortwave trough will move quickly east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward parts of north/east TX. A surface low initially over north TX is expected to move eastward toward northern MS/AL by Friday night. Increasing low-level moisture within the warm sector of this low will allow for modest diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing to near/above 500 J/kg across parts of LA/MS, in advance of a trailing cold front. Strengthening deep-layer shear will become conditionally favorable for organized convection, but potential for robust surface-based development may be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and relatively modest large-scale ascent within the warm sector. It still appears that the bulk of any thunderstorm development will be somewhat elevated and occur near and north of the surface warm front across northern MS/AL/GA and southern TN, primarily during the evening and overnight. At this time, elevated buoyancy appears insufficient to support an organized severe threat with this activity. However, if confidence increases regarding development of near-surface-based storms within the warm sector of the eastward-moving low, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Coastal northern CA/southwest OR... A deep mid/upper-level trough will gradually move eastward and approach the Pacific Coast by Friday night, as a strong jet begins to impinge upon areas of central/northern CA and the Pacific Northwest. A deepening surface low associated with this trough is expected to remain offshore through Saturday morning. The strongest low-level flow (50+ kt at 850 mb) will occur within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, where instability is expected to remain negligible. Late in the period, some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates may approach coastal areas of central/northern CA and southwest OR. This may allow for development of generally weak convection with sproadic lightning flashes. Low-level flow is forecast to remain rather strong (35-45 kt at 850 mb) as midlevel lapse rates begin to steepen, and any lightning-producing convection could be coincident with gusty winds. However, any convective contribution to damaging-wind potential may be limited by very meager surface-based buoyancy through the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as well as along coastal areas of central and northern California and southwest Orgeon. ...LA/MS/AL vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from the south-central Plains towards the TN Valley on Friday. A somewhat stronger upstream shortwave trough will move quickly east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward parts of north/east TX. A surface low initially over north TX is expected to move eastward toward northern MS/AL by Friday night. Increasing low-level moisture within the warm sector of this low will allow for modest diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing to near/above 500 J/kg across parts of LA/MS, in advance of a trailing cold front. Strengthening deep-layer shear will become conditionally favorable for organized convection, but potential for robust surface-based development may be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and relatively modest large-scale ascent within the warm sector. It still appears that the bulk of any thunderstorm development will be somewhat elevated and occur near and north of the surface warm front across northern MS/AL/GA and southern TN, primarily during the evening and overnight. At this time, elevated buoyancy appears insufficient to support an organized severe threat with this activity. However, if confidence increases regarding development of near-surface-based storms within the warm sector of the eastward-moving low, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Coastal northern CA/southwest OR... A deep mid/upper-level trough will gradually move eastward and approach the Pacific Coast by Friday night, as a strong jet begins to impinge upon areas of central/northern CA and the Pacific Northwest. A deepening surface low associated with this trough is expected to remain offshore through Saturday morning. The strongest low-level flow (50+ kt at 850 mb) will occur within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, where instability is expected to remain negligible. Late in the period, some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates may approach coastal areas of central/northern CA and southwest OR. This may allow for development of generally weak convection with sproadic lightning flashes. Low-level flow is forecast to remain rather strong (35-45 kt at 850 mb) as midlevel lapse rates begin to steepen, and any lightning-producing convection could be coincident with gusty winds. However, any convective contribution to damaging-wind potential may be limited by very meager surface-based buoyancy through the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CA... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning. ...Southern CA... A compact midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of southern CA toward the San Joaquin Valley through the day, before dampening somewhat as it approaches the Great Basin during the evening. The strongest DCVA and cooling aloft will generally be displaced north of the most favorable low-level moisture, but some thunderstorm potential will continue to accompany this system for at least the first part of the day. The greatest relative potential for surface-based convection appears to be across immediate coastal areas of southern CA and adjacent offshore regions, where surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the low 60s F. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong, but 30-40 kt of 700 mb flow and modest enlargement of low-level hodographs could support potential for weakly rotating storms. While confidence in sufficiently robust convection is not high, locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any stronger cells near the coast, primarily during the morning. ..Dean.. 12/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...Southeast and Florida... Elevated highlights were removed for portions of southern GA and the FL Panhandle as light winds less than 10 mph and marginal fuel dryness limits a broader fire weather threat for this area. Elevated highlights continue for the eastern FL Peninsula, much of GA and the Carolinas as dry conditions with RH falling as low as 20-25 percent this afternoon amid a dry continental air mass. See previous discussion for more details. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Dry, downslope flow continues across the southern and central High Plains, supporting low relative humidity in the 15-25% range this afternoon within the region. However, relatively weak northwest flow aloft and a diffuse surface pressure gradient will present a more localized elevated fire weather threat just leeward of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 15 mph and RH dropping to around 15% are expected, but marginal fuel dryness should limit a more substantial wildfire potential. ..Williams.. 12/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress south-southeastward while amplifying over the Northeast today, supporting surface troughing along the East Coast as surface high pressure overspreads the Midwest. Dry offshore flow should occur by afternoon peak heating from the Carolinas to the Florida Peninsula. 10 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH will encourage localized wildfire-spread potential amid dry fuels, with Elevated highlights remaining in place. Surface lee troughing across the Plains will encourage breezy downslope conditions along the central and southern High Plains, though RH appears too high for Elevated conditions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...Southeast and Florida... Elevated highlights were removed for portions of southern GA and the FL Panhandle as light winds less than 10 mph and marginal fuel dryness limits a broader fire weather threat for this area. Elevated highlights continue for the eastern FL Peninsula, much of GA and the Carolinas as dry conditions with RH falling as low as 20-25 percent this afternoon amid a dry continental air mass. See previous discussion for more details. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Dry, downslope flow continues across the southern and central High Plains, supporting low relative humidity in the 15-25% range this afternoon within the region. However, relatively weak northwest flow aloft and a diffuse surface pressure gradient will present a more localized elevated fire weather threat just leeward of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 15 mph and RH dropping to around 15% are expected, but marginal fuel dryness should limit a more substantial wildfire potential. ..Williams.. 12/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress south-southeastward while amplifying over the Northeast today, supporting surface troughing along the East Coast as surface high pressure overspreads the Midwest. Dry offshore flow should occur by afternoon peak heating from the Carolinas to the Florida Peninsula. 10 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH will encourage localized wildfire-spread potential amid dry fuels, with Elevated highlights remaining in place. Surface lee troughing across the Plains will encourage breezy downslope conditions along the central and southern High Plains, though RH appears too high for Elevated conditions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern California late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With upper ridging remaining prominent over the western CONUS and upper troughing centered across the eastern states, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal though tonight for a large majority of the CONUS. One exception will be across parts of southern CA late tonight into early Thursday morning, as an upper trough/low over the eastern Pacific gradually approaches the CA Coast by the end of the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, increasing large-scale ascent and gradually cooling mid-level temperatures preceding the upper trough/low may still support isolated convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, mainly after 01/06Z. Both MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear too weak to support a meaningful threat for organized severe thunderstorms through the end of the period (12Z Thursday morning). ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern California late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With upper ridging remaining prominent over the western CONUS and upper troughing centered across the eastern states, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal though tonight for a large majority of the CONUS. One exception will be across parts of southern CA late tonight into early Thursday morning, as an upper trough/low over the eastern Pacific gradually approaches the CA Coast by the end of the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, increasing large-scale ascent and gradually cooling mid-level temperatures preceding the upper trough/low may still support isolated convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, mainly after 01/06Z. Both MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear too weak to support a meaningful threat for organized severe thunderstorms through the end of the period (12Z Thursday morning). ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along coastal southern California very late in the period. ...Southern CA... A southern-stream upper-level trough will approach the southern CA coast late tonight. Latest model guidance suggests increasing large-scale ascent will approach the coast, contributing to isolated convection along/ahead of a weak front as it surges inland, primarily after 09z. Forecast soundings along the coast suggest thunderstorms should be elevated in nature, with initial convection likely rooted at or above 850mb. Weak buoyancy and shear suggests minimal potential for severe storms prior to 12z Thursday. ..Bunting/Weinman.. 12/31/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas. Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks. Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as well as along a portion of the Pacific Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... At least isolated thunderstorm potential should return across a portion of the interior Deep South on Friday night. Meager elevated buoyancy should develop as low-level moistening occurs ahead of a leading shortwave impulse tracking across the Mid-South to TN Valley. This impulse may dampen downstream of a shortwave trough progressing from the Four Corners to north TX. The bulk of MUCAPE should largely remain at around 500 J/kg or less, owing to modest mid-level lapse rates. Farther south towards the central Gulf Coast from southeast LA to the FL Panhandle, richer low-level moisture should spread somewhat inland ahead of the more prominent shortwave trough. Most convective-parameterized models suggest an increase in convective development may occur at the end of the period within the low-level theta-e gradient. Despite a generally zonal deep-layer wind profile, adequate low-level hodograph curvature and robust speed shear renders a conditional supercell concern. But poor mid-level lapse rates renders concern for the degree of convective development prior to 12Z, with the 00Z RRFS having minimal deep convective signal. With minimal ML probabilities across this area as well, will defer to later outlook cycles for a level 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...Coastal northern CA and southwest OR... A large-scale upper trough will approach the Pacific Coast, with an intense mid-level jetlet likely impinging on the northern CA coast on Friday night. Fast deep-layer flow is anticipated within the low-level warm conveyor, but should remain entirely meridional until near the end of the period. Instability within the warm conveyor appears minimal, suggesting that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible amid strong gradient flow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates may brush the northern CA to southwest OR coast in the early morning Saturday. This should support scant buoyancy and potential for very isolated thunderstorms. ..Grams.. 12/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Plains states will gradually flatten through the day tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level impulse impinges on the southern Rockies. Similar to Day 1, some dry downslope flow is possible along the lee of the Rockies, over the central and southern High Plains, with RH dipping below 20 percent in spots. Still, forecast surface wind fields should not be overly strong, so wildfire-spread potential should remain localized over the High Plains. Likewise, modestly dry conditions will persist along the Southeast Atlantic coastline, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights, though wildfire-spread potential will locally be non-zero. ..Squitieri.. 12/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress south-southeastward while amplifying over the Northeast today, supporting surface troughing along the East Coast as surface high pressure overspreads the Midwest. Dry offshore flow should occur by afternoon peak heating from the Carolinas to the Florida Peninsula. 10 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH will encourage localized wildfire-spread potential amid dry fuels, with Elevated highlights remaining in place. Surface lee troughing across the Plains will encourage breezy downslope conditions along the central and southern High Plains, though RH appears too high for Elevated conditions at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL SOUTHERN CA... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning. ...CA and the Southwest... Guidance continues a decidedly northward trend to the evolution of the compact shortwave trough, currently west of southern CA. Latest indications are for this wave to reach the San Joaquin Valley around midday Thursday, before slightly dampening over the southern Great Basin. Thunderstorm potential appears greatest on Thursday morning with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across southern CA. Despite the early time of day, activity along the coast should be surface-based along the periphery of low 60s dew points. Buoyancy/instability will remain meager, given the expected northerly track of the wave and attendant mesoscale cold core displaced from the richer moisture plume. But guidance is consistent with the depiction of 40-50 kt 700-mb flow across the Transverse Ranges through midday. With some low-level hodograph curvature and several CAMs suggestive of at least one rotating cell in the LA Basin vicinity, have opted to include a small level 1-MRGL risk for wind and tornado. Confidence remains low in the degree of thunderstorm potential farther north and east. Lower-level moisture east of CA should be greater across AZ, but this may remain displaced too far south of the latest consensus for the mid-level cold core. It is plausible that much of the convection from the Central Valley to AZ will remain low-topped, with thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent or less. ..Grams.. 12/31/2025 Read more