Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central U.S. should begin to deamplify through the end of the week as an mid/upper trough gradually moves into Intermountain West. Well above normal temperatures under the ridge will likely be daily occurrences with minimal precipitation expected, particularly across the southern Great Plains where expanding rainfall deficits, dry fuels and dry and breezy conditions could align to support an increased fire weather threat. A descending upper-level trough into the Northeast along with a deepening surface cyclone should drive a strong cold front through the Great Plains and eastern U.S. over the weekend. Precipitation should be limited to the TN Valley/Appalachians region where deeper boundary layer moisture and stronger upper-level support exists. A more diffuse surface pressure gradient and generally lighter wind regime emerges as high pressure settles in east of the Continental Divide early next week although initial dry post-frontal flow could reinvigorate a fire weather threat across the southern Plains and TX early next week. ...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Southern Plains... Lee troughing across the Central Plains and persistent southwesterly flow aloft will promote dry and breezy conditions across the OK/TX Panhandle and northeastern NM on Day 3/Wednesday. Deeper return flow moisture from the Gulf will limit fire weather concerns to the southern High Plains Wednesday. A breakdown in the upper-level ridge across the central U.S. along with increasing west-southwest flow aloft will continue to support breezy conditions across the southern High Plains Thursday. A plume of Pacific moisture and mid/upper cloud cover associated with an impinging western U.S. trough should arrive Day 4/Thursday across the Southern High Plains. Additional cloud cover, increasing surface dewpoints and limited RH reductions could limit the fire weather threat to an extent, but near record warmth along with an increasingly dry fuelscape and breezy west-southwest winds supports introduction of 40% critical probabilities for Thursday for portions of the TX Panhandle and far eastern NM. Increasing west/southwest flow aloft from a mid-level jet and continued lee troughing should keep a dry downslope regime across the southern Plains through Day 5/Friday. A better boundary layer mixing environment with less cloud cover and persistently warm temperatures should support low daytime RH across the Southern Plains Friday. A 40% critical probability area was added to cover this likely fire weather concern across far eastern NM and portions of the TX Panhandle. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... Some forecast uncertainty remains in the timing and intensity of pre/post-frontal winds across the central and southern Plains over the weekend. This could present ongoing fire weather threats across the south-central CONUS and even the Southeast where minimal rainfall and above normal temperatures allow more receptive fuels to develop through early next week. Critical probabilities were withheld due to ongoing uncertainty and longer term ensemble guidance. ..Williams.. 12/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An amplifying mid/upper level ridge over the central U.S. and a deepening trough heading into the West Coast will maintain broad southwest flow aloft over the western U.S. However, somewhat weaker mid-level winds coupled with lower magnitude lee troughing in the central High Plains will limit development of a broader downslope wind event along the wind-prone areas of the CO Rockies. Localized accelerations of winds are expected within favorable terrain gaps, but widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear to remain low. Additional upper-level cloud cover streaming ahead of the trough across the western U.S. will also inhibit optimal boundary layer mixing and stronger surface wind potential. Farther south, very dry conditions and anomalously warm temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s will prevail across much of the southern High Plains but lighter winds should mitigate the overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern U.S. as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface lee troughing will continue across the central U.S., with gradual moisture return from the Gulf expected. A dry low-level airmass will continue to linger along the central and southern High Plains. However, surface wind fields over the western portions of the Plains will be weaker compared to Day 1, with no fire weather highlights introduced for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An amplifying mid/upper level ridge over the central U.S. and a deepening trough heading into the West Coast will maintain broad southwest flow aloft over the western U.S. However, somewhat weaker mid-level winds coupled with lower magnitude lee troughing in the central High Plains will limit development of a broader downslope wind event along the wind-prone areas of the CO Rockies. Localized accelerations of winds are expected within favorable terrain gaps, but widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear to remain low. Additional upper-level cloud cover streaming ahead of the trough across the western U.S. will also inhibit optimal boundary layer mixing and stronger surface wind potential. Farther south, very dry conditions and anomalously warm temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s will prevail across much of the southern High Plains but lighter winds should mitigate the overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern U.S. as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface lee troughing will continue across the central U.S., with gradual moisture return from the Gulf expected. A dry low-level airmass will continue to linger along the central and southern High Plains. However, surface wind fields over the western portions of the Plains will be weaker compared to Day 1, with no fire weather highlights introduced for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20z Update... The previous outlook reasoning remains on track and no changes were made with this update. ..Bunting.. 12/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced midlevel shortwave trough and associated baroclinic zone will move across the WA coast later this afternoon. Low-midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy of sufficient depth (through -20 C at the equilibrium level) for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection along and behind the front. Shallow, weakly rotating convection will be possible near the WA coast per the KLGX VWP/hodograph, but the threat for severe storms appears too limited to warrant an outlook area. Farther south, the potential for isolated lightning flashes will slowly wane through the day across the northern Sierra Nevada, where weak buoyancy rooted above the surface will likewise diminish. Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge (with unusually high geopotential heights) covers the southern Plains/Gulf coast. An embedded/weak midlevel trough will rotate slowly north-northwestward around the periphery of the ridge, bringing weak ascent and an associated moisture plume into south TX. Per the observed deepening of the moist layer at BRO in the past 12 hours, pockets of surface heating/destabilization could support isolated thunderstorm development across south TX this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20z Update... The previous outlook reasoning remains on track and no changes were made with this update. ..Bunting.. 12/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced midlevel shortwave trough and associated baroclinic zone will move across the WA coast later this afternoon. Low-midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy of sufficient depth (through -20 C at the equilibrium level) for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection along and behind the front. Shallow, weakly rotating convection will be possible near the WA coast per the KLGX VWP/hodograph, but the threat for severe storms appears too limited to warrant an outlook area. Farther south, the potential for isolated lightning flashes will slowly wane through the day across the northern Sierra Nevada, where weak buoyancy rooted above the surface will likewise diminish. Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge (with unusually high geopotential heights) covers the southern Plains/Gulf coast. An embedded/weak midlevel trough will rotate slowly north-northwestward around the periphery of the ridge, bringing weak ascent and an associated moisture plume into south TX. Per the observed deepening of the moist layer at BRO in the past 12 hours, pockets of surface heating/destabilization could support isolated thunderstorm development across south TX this afternoon. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of California. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper ridge will remain anchored over the central and eastern US while strong troughing persists over the West Coast. A series of embedded impulses will move onshore Wednesday and Wednesday night, coincident with their attendant deepening surface lows. A cold front and persistent southwesterly low-level flow should support isolated thunderstorms over much of the West Coast through early Thursday. ...California... As troughing deepens over the eastern Pacific, several embedded disturbances will propagate eastward overspreading modest low-level moisture from the CA coast to the central valley. Robust forcing for ascent and cold temperatures aloft (-24 to -26 C) overspreading 50s F dewpoints will likely support weak buoyancy along the southern CA coast and central Valley. A prolonged period of scattered showers and episodic periods of isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning and afternoon. Of these storms, sufficient CAPE, strong flow aloft and locally enlarged hodographs may allow for a few semi-organized/weakly rotating storms to mature. Sporadic damaging gusts, small hail and a brief tornado would be possible with the strongest storms before convection weakens into the evening and first part of the overnight hours. Additional low-topped linear storms/localized squalls are also possible ahead of the advancing cold front near the immediate coastal portions of central and northern CA primarily late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A few strong gusts are possible, though instability should quickly decrease inland. Elsewhere across the US, the prominent ridging will favor dry and unseasonably warm conditions with little potential for thunderstorms. ..Lyons.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of California. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper ridge will remain anchored over the central and eastern US while strong troughing persists over the West Coast. A series of embedded impulses will move onshore Wednesday and Wednesday night, coincident with their attendant deepening surface lows. A cold front and persistent southwesterly low-level flow should support isolated thunderstorms over much of the West Coast through early Thursday. ...California... As troughing deepens over the eastern Pacific, several embedded disturbances will propagate eastward overspreading modest low-level moisture from the CA coast to the central valley. Robust forcing for ascent and cold temperatures aloft (-24 to -26 C) overspreading 50s F dewpoints will likely support weak buoyancy along the southern CA coast and central Valley. A prolonged period of scattered showers and episodic periods of isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning and afternoon. Of these storms, sufficient CAPE, strong flow aloft and locally enlarged hodographs may allow for a few semi-organized/weakly rotating storms to mature. Sporadic damaging gusts, small hail and a brief tornado would be possible with the strongest storms before convection weakens into the evening and first part of the overnight hours. Additional low-topped linear storms/localized squalls are also possible ahead of the advancing cold front near the immediate coastal portions of central and northern CA primarily late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A few strong gusts are possible, though instability should quickly decrease inland. Elsewhere across the US, the prominent ridging will favor dry and unseasonably warm conditions with little potential for thunderstorms. ..Lyons.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... An expansive and unseasonably strong upper ridge will dominate the mid and upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS Day2/Tuesday. As the ridge intensifies, troughing on the flanks of the ridge will also strengthen. The western most trough, and a mid-level shortwave trough embedded within it will likely reach the central and northern CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. Strong ascent and flow aloft will support a deepening surface low which will support onshore flow and some thunderstorm potential over much of coastal CA/OR. ...West Coast... As the upper trough deepens over the West Coast, strong onshore flow will develop and support inland transport of low-level moisture across much of coast and the CA central Valley. Cooling mid-level temperatures and strong ascent associated with the embedded shortwave will overspread this air mass contributing to weak destabilization late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Low-topped convection, capable of occasional lightning, is expected to increase in coverage overnight. While a stronger storm is possible, especially along and ahead of the surface cold front, the scant buoyancy and overnight timing suggest severe potential is very low. Elsewhere, moisture advection is likely over parts of the southern Plains and far south TX beneath the upper ridge as the surface reflection shifts eastward. Despite persistent southerly flow and increasing surface dewpoints, little to no ascent and warm mid-level temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development outside of far south TX. ..Lyons.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... An expansive and unseasonably strong upper ridge will dominate the mid and upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS Day2/Tuesday. As the ridge intensifies, troughing on the flanks of the ridge will also strengthen. The western most trough, and a mid-level shortwave trough embedded within it will likely reach the central and northern CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. Strong ascent and flow aloft will support a deepening surface low which will support onshore flow and some thunderstorm potential over much of coastal CA/OR. ...West Coast... As the upper trough deepens over the West Coast, strong onshore flow will develop and support inland transport of low-level moisture across much of coast and the CA central Valley. Cooling mid-level temperatures and strong ascent associated with the embedded shortwave will overspread this air mass contributing to weak destabilization late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Low-topped convection, capable of occasional lightning, is expected to increase in coverage overnight. While a stronger storm is possible, especially along and ahead of the surface cold front, the scant buoyancy and overnight timing suggest severe potential is very low. Elsewhere, moisture advection is likely over parts of the southern Plains and far south TX beneath the upper ridge as the surface reflection shifts eastward. Despite persistent southerly flow and increasing surface dewpoints, little to no ascent and warm mid-level temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development outside of far south TX. ..Lyons.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...Colorado Front Range and Southeastern Wyoming... Current surface observations show westerly wind gusts already in the 35 to 45 mph range along the CO Front Range and adjacent foothills, northward into southeastern WY. Robust mid-level westerly flow along with daytime mixing and downslope drying will lead to critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon. West winds of 30-40 mph with localized gusts of 55-65 mph, relative humidity in the 15-20% range and dry fuels will promote a critical fire weather environment, where Critical highlights were added. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas Panhandle and Far West Texas... A broader but lower in magnitude downslope wind event is expected expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle through the afternoon. Sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph with relative humidity as low as 15% will align with increasingly dry fuels to support elevated fire weather conditions across this region. A more localized downslope wind threat exists farther south along the Sacramento/Guadalupe/Davis ranges where Elevated highlights have been extended. Winds approaching 20 mph just leeward of these ranges will align with low RH and moderately dry fuels to promote an elevated fire weather concern through the afternoon. ..Williams.. 12/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will continue to build over the CONUS through today, with lee troughing poised to increase across the Plains states. Some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon hours. From the immediate lee of the Rockies across Colorado, to eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, multiple hours of overlapping 15-20 percent RH and 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are likely. Elevated highlights have been maintained given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...Colorado Front Range and Southeastern Wyoming... Current surface observations show westerly wind gusts already in the 35 to 45 mph range along the CO Front Range and adjacent foothills, northward into southeastern WY. Robust mid-level westerly flow along with daytime mixing and downslope drying will lead to critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon. West winds of 30-40 mph with localized gusts of 55-65 mph, relative humidity in the 15-20% range and dry fuels will promote a critical fire weather environment, where Critical highlights were added. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas Panhandle and Far West Texas... A broader but lower in magnitude downslope wind event is expected expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle through the afternoon. Sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph with relative humidity as low as 15% will align with increasingly dry fuels to support elevated fire weather conditions across this region. A more localized downslope wind threat exists farther south along the Sacramento/Guadalupe/Davis ranges where Elevated highlights have been extended. Winds approaching 20 mph just leeward of these ranges will align with low RH and moderately dry fuels to promote an elevated fire weather concern through the afternoon. ..Williams.. 12/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will continue to build over the CONUS through today, with lee troughing poised to increase across the Plains states. Some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon hours. From the immediate lee of the Rockies across Colorado, to eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, multiple hours of overlapping 15-20 percent RH and 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are likely. Elevated highlights have been maintained given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A pronounced midlevel shortwave trough and associated baroclinic zone will move across the WA coast later this afternoon. Low-midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy of sufficient depth (through -20 C at the equilibrium level) for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection along and behind the front. Shallow, weakly rotating convection will be possible near the WA coast per the KLGX VWP/hodograph, but the threat for severe storms appears too limited to warrant an outlook area. Farther south, the potential for isolated lightning flashes will slowly wane through the day across the northern Sierra Nevada, where weak buoyancy rooted above the surface will likewise diminish. Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge (with unusually high geopotential heights) covers the southern Plains/Gulf coast. An embedded/weak midlevel trough will rotate slowly north-northwestward around the periphery of the ridge, bringing weak ascent and an associated moisture plume into south TX. Per the observed deepening of the moist layer at BRO in the past 12 hours, pockets of surface heating/destabilization could support isolated thunderstorm development across south TX this afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... The next shortwave trough and associated cold front are expected to advance inland across British Columbia/coastal Washington by this evening. A related plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection. Elsewhere across the West, a few lightning flashes have been noted early this morning across the California Sierra, and this scenario may continue today within a moisture-rich plume with weak buoyancy. A weak mid-level disturbance over the western Gulf and coastal Mexico, along with a moist air mass (reference 12z Brownsville observed sounding) to the south of a slow-moving front, may allow for a few thunderstorms to develop into/across Deep South Texas. Similar to morning RAOB/WSR-88D VWP observations, forecast soundings suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, such that any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... The next shortwave trough and associated cold front are expected to advance inland across British Columbia/coastal Washington by this evening. A related plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection. Elsewhere across the West, a few lightning flashes have been noted early this morning across the California Sierra, and this scenario may continue today within a moisture-rich plume with weak buoyancy. A weak mid-level disturbance over the western Gulf and coastal Mexico, along with a moist air mass (reference 12z Brownsville observed sounding) to the south of a slow-moving front, may allow for a few thunderstorms to develop into/across Deep South Texas. Similar to morning RAOB/WSR-88D VWP observations, forecast soundings suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, such that any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/22/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern U.S. as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface lee troughing will continue across the central U.S., with gradual moisture return from the Gulf expected. A dry low-level airmass will continue to linger along the central and southern High Plains. However, surface wind fields over the western portions of the Plains will be weaker compared to Day 1, with no fire weather highlights introduced for this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 12/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will continue to build over the CONUS through today, with lee troughing poised to increase across the Plains states. Some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon hours. From the immediate lee of the Rockies across Colorado, to eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, multiple hours of overlapping 15-20 percent RH and 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are likely. Elevated highlights have been maintained given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 12/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...California... An upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast on Tuesday. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale trough will likely reach the central and northern CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. A surface low will develop and migrate northeast reaching the OR-CA border by early Wednesday morning. Flow will increase during the period as a 100-kt 500-mb jet impinges on the central coastal areas of CA. Yet, only scant instability is currently progged. This meager buoyancy will generally focus near the coast but sporadic pockets will probably develop farther inland over the central valleys late Tuesday night. Low-topped convective showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage coincident with increased forcing for ascent and instability. Given the dearth of buoyancy forecast, will preclude the introduction of low-severe probabilities. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the Lower 48. ..Smith.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Discussion... Midlevel short-wave trough, off the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to advance inland around 23/00z before deamplifying as it ejects into southwest Canada by the end of the period. Associated surface front will also progress inland around 23/00z, and cooling lower tropospheric profiles should lead to weak buoyancy along the WA/OR coast. Low-topped convection may generate a flash or two of lightning, but thunderstorms should otherwise remain quite sparse. Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough over northeast Mexico, lifting north in line with latest model guidance. Deep southeasterly flow across south TX will maintain moist profiles that should exhibit modest SBCAPE by late afternoon. Forecast soundings also suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, and any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Discussion... Midlevel short-wave trough, off the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to advance inland around 23/00z before deamplifying as it ejects into southwest Canada by the end of the period. Associated surface front will also progress inland around 23/00z, and cooling lower tropospheric profiles should lead to weak buoyancy along the WA/OR coast. Low-topped convection may generate a flash or two of lightning, but thunderstorms should otherwise remain quite sparse. Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough over northeast Mexico, lifting north in line with latest model guidance. Deep southeasterly flow across south TX will maintain moist profiles that should exhibit modest SBCAPE by late afternoon. Forecast soundings also suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, and any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/22/2025 Read more