SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough and accompanying surface trough are ejecting into
the Atlantic, with any available scant buoyancy being displaced east
of the CONUS. As such, any thunderstorms and accompanying
thunderstorm wind threat should be ending soon, though damaging
gusts from gradient flow (non-thunderstorm processes) may persist
through the evening hours. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a zonal upper
pattern will be in place, with a few embedded impulses poised to
traverse the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS over the next few
hours. Pockets of cooler temperatures aloft with these impulses may
support just enough buoyancy (however scant) for a few lightning
flashes across portions of northwestern Wyoming and the Pacific
Northwest coastline through early tonight.
..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough and accompanying surface trough are ejecting into
the Atlantic, with any available scant buoyancy being displaced east
of the CONUS. As such, any thunderstorms and accompanying
thunderstorm wind threat should be ending soon, though damaging
gusts from gradient flow (non-thunderstorm processes) may persist
through the evening hours. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a zonal upper
pattern will be in place, with a few embedded impulses poised to
traverse the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS over the next few
hours. Pockets of cooler temperatures aloft with these impulses may
support just enough buoyancy (however scant) for a few lightning
flashes across portions of northwestern Wyoming and the Pacific
Northwest coastline through early tonight.
..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
Upper-level ridging will slowly build out of northern Mexico into
the southern/central US next week then slowly drift east, with the
upper high likely shifting from north-central Mexico to the
Louisiana Gulf Coast/vicinity. Strong flow will be on the periphery
of the ridging with some stronger flow/smaller jets traversing
across the southern/Colorado Rockies. Deeper troughing is likely to
develop off the West Coast before moving into the West and breaking
down/shifting the upper ridge over the southern/central US.
...Southern/Central High Plains...
Stronger flow aloft will spread across the Colorado/southern
Rockies, increasing downslope flow and lee troughing on Day
4/Monday. This will likely result in elevated to perhaps critical
fire weather conditions in portions of northeast New Mexico, far
southeast Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. There appears
to be a slackening of the flow aloft on Day 5/Tuesday as the ridge
builds and before the next jet arrives. However, some dry/breezy
conditions remain possible in the vicinity of the Day 4/Monday 40%
area.
On Day 6/Wednesday, forecast guidance indicates a small jet will
move over the southern/Colorado Rockies, which will increase
downslope flow and likely result in elevated to critical conditions.
While there is good forecast guidance agreement on the timing and
location of this feature, only a smaller 40% area was included due
to the typical uncertainty associated with these types of features.
Dry/windy conditions are likely late next week on portions of the
southern/central High Plains as a deep trough moves into the West
and begins to break down and shift the ridge over the
southern/central US. However, the timing and orientation the
stronger flow aloft remains uncertain and precludes introducing
probabilities at this time.
Given the lack of recent and forecast precipitation and multiple
rounds of elevated/critical fire weather conditions for the
southern/central Plains, fuels have and will continue to cure.
Increased fuel loading across many of these areas, especially in
portions of Oklahoma and Texas, are of concern with any forecast
elevated/critical fire weather conditions.
..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
Upper-level ridging will slowly build out of northern Mexico into
the southern/central US next week then slowly drift east, with the
upper high likely shifting from north-central Mexico to the
Louisiana Gulf Coast/vicinity. Strong flow will be on the periphery
of the ridging with some stronger flow/smaller jets traversing
across the southern/Colorado Rockies. Deeper troughing is likely to
develop off the West Coast before moving into the West and breaking
down/shifting the upper ridge over the southern/central US.
...Southern/Central High Plains...
Stronger flow aloft will spread across the Colorado/southern
Rockies, increasing downslope flow and lee troughing on Day
4/Monday. This will likely result in elevated to perhaps critical
fire weather conditions in portions of northeast New Mexico, far
southeast Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. There appears
to be a slackening of the flow aloft on Day 5/Tuesday as the ridge
builds and before the next jet arrives. However, some dry/breezy
conditions remain possible in the vicinity of the Day 4/Monday 40%
area.
On Day 6/Wednesday, forecast guidance indicates a small jet will
move over the southern/Colorado Rockies, which will increase
downslope flow and likely result in elevated to critical conditions.
While there is good forecast guidance agreement on the timing and
location of this feature, only a smaller 40% area was included due
to the typical uncertainty associated with these types of features.
Dry/windy conditions are likely late next week on portions of the
southern/central High Plains as a deep trough moves into the West
and begins to break down and shift the ridge over the
southern/central US. However, the timing and orientation the
stronger flow aloft remains uncertain and precludes introducing
probabilities at this time.
Given the lack of recent and forecast precipitation and multiple
rounds of elevated/critical fire weather conditions for the
southern/central Plains, fuels have and will continue to cure.
Increased fuel loading across many of these areas, especially in
portions of Oklahoma and Texas, are of concern with any forecast
elevated/critical fire weather conditions.
..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
While strong/gusty winds remain possible across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast this afternoon and evening, the threat for organized
severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes have been made to the existing General
Thunderstorm areas. A band of low-topped convection is moving across
eastern PA toward northern NJ this afternoon, with sporadic strong
to severe gusts noted with this feature. Organized convection is not
expected due to negligible buoyancy, but strong deep-layer winds
associated with a powerful mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold
front moving across the eastern CONUS will continue to support
strong/damaging gusts both near and removed from any remaining
convection.
..Dean.. 12/19/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level
flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will
likewise develop eastward across these regions through the
afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A
loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ,
and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of
hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating
with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in
place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should
continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm
advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor
thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection
to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
While strong/gusty winds remain possible across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast this afternoon and evening, the threat for organized
severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes have been made to the existing General
Thunderstorm areas. A band of low-topped convection is moving across
eastern PA toward northern NJ this afternoon, with sporadic strong
to severe gusts noted with this feature. Organized convection is not
expected due to negligible buoyancy, but strong deep-layer winds
associated with a powerful mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold
front moving across the eastern CONUS will continue to support
strong/damaging gusts both near and removed from any remaining
convection.
..Dean.. 12/19/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level
flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will
likewise develop eastward across these regions through the
afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A
loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ,
and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of
hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating
with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in
place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should
continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm
advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor
thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection
to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LLANO ESTACADO...
The Critical area was modified slightly, and the Elevated area
expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast
guidance. Gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage is
likely to result in locally elevated/elevated fire weather
conditions in portions of the Texas Panhandle, southwest Kansas, and
northwest Texas. While RH increases and temperatures decrease by the
evening, breezy to gusty northeast winds behind a wind shift is of
concern. Additionally, locally critical conditions are likely in
portions of the Trans Pecos, especially in leeside, wind prone
locations.
..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and
eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high
pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low
drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal
boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph
sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least
a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico
into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical
highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus
depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH
amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LLANO ESTACADO...
The Critical area was modified slightly, and the Elevated area
expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast
guidance. Gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage is
likely to result in locally elevated/elevated fire weather
conditions in portions of the Texas Panhandle, southwest Kansas, and
northwest Texas. While RH increases and temperatures decrease by the
evening, breezy to gusty northeast winds behind a wind shift is of
concern. Additionally, locally critical conditions are likely in
portions of the Trans Pecos, especially in leeside, wind prone
locations.
..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and
eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high
pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low
drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal
boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph
sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least
a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico
into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical
highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus
depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH
amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm activity is expected on Sunday across the USA.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will move across the Northeast on Sunday, with
generally zonal flow extending to the west. At the surface, high
pressure will move eastward across the Midwest during day, and
toward the Mid Atlantic by Monday morning. As result of the dry air
mass, stable conditions will be prevalent over much of the central
and eastern CONUS.
To the west, a weak midlevel feature will approach the Pacific
Northwest with cooling aloft as a cold front approaches the WA/OR
Coast around 00Z. Little if any instability is forecast to be
present except primarily over the ocean. Farther south, southwest
flow with midlevel moisture and lift will be prevalent across much
of northern CA, and weak elevated instability is forecast by some of
the models. However, overall thunderstorm/lightning coverage will
likely be quite low.
..Jewell.. 12/19/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm activity is expected on Sunday across the USA.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will move across the Northeast on Sunday, with
generally zonal flow extending to the west. At the surface, high
pressure will move eastward across the Midwest during day, and
toward the Mid Atlantic by Monday morning. As result of the dry air
mass, stable conditions will be prevalent over much of the central
and eastern CONUS.
To the west, a weak midlevel feature will approach the Pacific
Northwest with cooling aloft as a cold front approaches the WA/OR
Coast around 00Z. Little if any instability is forecast to be
present except primarily over the ocean. Farther south, southwest
flow with midlevel moisture and lift will be prevalent across much
of northern CA, and weak elevated instability is forecast by some of
the models. However, overall thunderstorm/lightning coverage will
likely be quite low.
..Jewell.. 12/19/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near coastal sections of
Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
A benign pattern for thunderstorms will exist on Saturday across
most of the CONUS with a broad belt of westerly winds aloft and high
pressure over the East. While a trough amplification will develop
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, antecedent dry
surface trajectories around the surface high will maintain stable
conditions across those areas.
To the west, minimum weak thunderstorm potential may approach
coastal WA into Sunday morning as a low-amplitude wave approaches. A
sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated instability cannot be
ruled out as well farther south across western OR into northern CA,
but the overall risk of thunderstorms is quite low.
..Jewell.. 12/19/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near coastal sections of
Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
A benign pattern for thunderstorms will exist on Saturday across
most of the CONUS with a broad belt of westerly winds aloft and high
pressure over the East. While a trough amplification will develop
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, antecedent dry
surface trajectories around the surface high will maintain stable
conditions across those areas.
To the west, minimum weak thunderstorm potential may approach
coastal WA into Sunday morning as a low-amplitude wave approaches. A
sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated instability cannot be
ruled out as well farther south across western OR into northern CA,
but the overall risk of thunderstorms is quite low.
..Jewell.. 12/19/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
While strong/gusty winds will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast today, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is
expected to remain low.
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level
flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will
likewise develop eastward across these regions through the
afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A
loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ,
and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of
hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating
with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in
place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should
continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm
advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor
thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection
to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update.
..Gleason/Hart.. 12/19/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
While strong/gusty winds will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast today, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is
expected to remain low.
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level
flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will
likewise develop eastward across these regions through the
afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A
loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ,
and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of
hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating
with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in
place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should
continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm
advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor
thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection
to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update.
..Gleason/Hart.. 12/19/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
While strong/gusty winds will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast today, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is
expected to remain low.
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level
flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will
likewise develop eastward across these regions through the
afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A
loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ,
and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of
hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating
with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in
place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should
continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm
advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor
thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection
to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update.
..Gleason/Hart.. 12/19/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG/EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES
INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
The Critical area was expanded south along the Colorado Rockies with
a slight expansion of the Elevated in portions of central Colorado
and southwest Texas based on the latest observations and
high-resolution forecast guidance. Westerly wind gusts of 40-70 mph
with RH of 15-30% are already being observed in southeast Wyoming,
along portions of the Front Range, and into the western Nebraska
Panhandle. Cloud cover is over much of the southern/central High
Plains, and partly to mostly cloudy conditions are likely to
continue today. However, given the strong background flow and dry
airmass, elevated to locally critical conditions remain expected
across much of the southern/central High Plains, with critical to
extremely critical conditions along/east the Front Range into
southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. This includes
wind gusts up to 100 mph and minimum RH around 10%. A Particularly
Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning has been issued by the
NWS Boulder Weather Forecast Office for along/west of the Highway 93
corridor into the foothills from near Golden, CO extending north to
near Lyons, CO.
..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a
low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies
into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb
west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper
trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the
day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing
will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds
amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High
Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon,
warranting Elevated highlights.
Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of
central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the
strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending
to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum
transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20
mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of
particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central
CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex
terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with
gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH
along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support
rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential
ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG/EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES
INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
The Critical area was expanded south along the Colorado Rockies with
a slight expansion of the Elevated in portions of central Colorado
and southwest Texas based on the latest observations and
high-resolution forecast guidance. Westerly wind gusts of 40-70 mph
with RH of 15-30% are already being observed in southeast Wyoming,
along portions of the Front Range, and into the western Nebraska
Panhandle. Cloud cover is over much of the southern/central High
Plains, and partly to mostly cloudy conditions are likely to
continue today. However, given the strong background flow and dry
airmass, elevated to locally critical conditions remain expected
across much of the southern/central High Plains, with critical to
extremely critical conditions along/east the Front Range into
southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. This includes
wind gusts up to 100 mph and minimum RH around 10%. A Particularly
Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning has been issued by the
NWS Boulder Weather Forecast Office for along/west of the Highway 93
corridor into the foothills from near Golden, CO extending north to
near Lyons, CO.
..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a
low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies
into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb
west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper
trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the
day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing
will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds
amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High
Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon,
warranting Elevated highlights.
Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of
central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the
strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending
to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum
transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20
mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of
particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central
CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex
terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with
gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH
along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support
rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential
ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today.
...North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States...
A prominent upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley will continue to take on a negative tilt as it quickly
transitions east-northeastward toward New England the Canadian
Maritimes tonight. A very strong deep-layer wind field (80-110 kt at
500 mb) is attendant to this trough, with these strong winds aloft
partially overlapping a modestly moist/minimally unstable warm
sector along the I-95 corridor/East Coast ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front. A strongly forced semi-organized
low-topped convective line, with little or no lightning flashes, is
ongoing around sunrise across northeast North Carolina and southeast
Virginia, and this may further develop north-northeastward across
additional portions of the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. Even
with minimal buoyancy, some stronger/locally severe wind gusts could
occur this morning, and possibly through early afternoon across
parts of the near-coastal Northeast.
..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/19/2025
Read more
