SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...01z Update...
Potential for lighting is negligible across most of the CONUS
tonight. A few exceptions are along the LA and south TX coasts, and
across portions of the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms
have recently developed along a frontal zone across southern LA.
This activity will gradually propagate off the LA coast later this
evening and focus offshore. Some risk for weak convection also
extends across south TX along this frontal zone.
A notable short-wave trough is advancing toward the WA/OR coast
early this evening. A few flashes of lightning have been observed
off Vancouver Island with this feature. Some risk for isolated
thunderstorms continues near the coast as the surface front surges
inland and profiles cool.
..Darrow.. 12/22/2025
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...01z Update...
Potential for lighting is negligible across most of the CONUS
tonight. A few exceptions are along the LA and south TX coasts, and
across portions of the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms
have recently developed along a frontal zone across southern LA.
This activity will gradually propagate off the LA coast later this
evening and focus offshore. Some risk for weak convection also
extends across south TX along this frontal zone.
A notable short-wave trough is advancing toward the WA/OR coast
early this evening. A few flashes of lightning have been observed
off Vancouver Island with this feature. Some risk for isolated
thunderstorms continues near the coast as the surface front surges
inland and profiles cool.
..Darrow.. 12/22/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the central U.S.
through midweek supporting dry conditions and near record warm
temperatures across the Plains. A deepening trough across the
northeast Pacific should bring increasing Pacific moisture,
including widespread rain and mountain snow into the much of the
western U.S. through the week. Longer term model guidance indicates
a westward shift of the mid-level ridge while troughing develops
across the Northeast. This could invite a cold air intrusion into
much of the eastern U.S. by early next week but still limits
rainfall potential across the Plains.
...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains...
The Southern High Plains will remain the focus for fire weather
concerns through midweek with increasingly dry fuels in place. A
deepening lee trough across the southern High Plains will maintain
dry and breezy conditions across portions of northeast NM, TX/OK
Panhandles, southeast CO and southwest KS on Day 4/Wednesday. 40
percent critical probabilities were maintained for this region.
Enhanced southwest winds are also expected farther east into
northern TX and central OK on Wednesday, but deeper Gulf boundary
layer moisture should limit a more significant fire weather threat.
Similarly breezy conditions should exist on Day 5/Thursday, but
increasing Pacific moisture/cloud cover could considerably limit RH
reductions across the TX/OK Panhandles and adjacent high plains.
...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
Relatively warm and dry conditions will persist across much of the
central and southern Plains through the weekend. A potential strong
cold front sweeps through the Plains and eastern CONUS as
mid/upper-level troughing evolves across Ontario/Quebec Canadian
provinces and northeastern U.S. However, forecast uncertainty
remains high in terms of timing of the front, particularly across
the Southern Plains where receptive fuels will likely exist. This
precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 12/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the central U.S.
through midweek supporting dry conditions and near record warm
temperatures across the Plains. A deepening trough across the
northeast Pacific should bring increasing Pacific moisture,
including widespread rain and mountain snow into the much of the
western U.S. through the week. Longer term model guidance indicates
a westward shift of the mid-level ridge while troughing develops
across the Northeast. This could invite a cold air intrusion into
much of the eastern U.S. by early next week but still limits
rainfall potential across the Plains.
...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains...
The Southern High Plains will remain the focus for fire weather
concerns through midweek with increasingly dry fuels in place. A
deepening lee trough across the southern High Plains will maintain
dry and breezy conditions across portions of northeast NM, TX/OK
Panhandles, southeast CO and southwest KS on Day 4/Wednesday. 40
percent critical probabilities were maintained for this region.
Enhanced southwest winds are also expected farther east into
northern TX and central OK on Wednesday, but deeper Gulf boundary
layer moisture should limit a more significant fire weather threat.
Similarly breezy conditions should exist on Day 5/Thursday, but
increasing Pacific moisture/cloud cover could considerably limit RH
reductions across the TX/OK Panhandles and adjacent high plains.
...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
Relatively warm and dry conditions will persist across much of the
central and southern Plains through the weekend. A potential strong
cold front sweeps through the Plains and eastern CONUS as
mid/upper-level troughing evolves across Ontario/Quebec Canadian
provinces and northeastern U.S. However, forecast uncertainty
remains high in terms of timing of the front, particularly across
the Southern Plains where receptive fuels will likely exist. This
precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 12/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
A subtle mid-level short wave embedded within broad westerly flow
aloft should move into the upper Missouri River Valley Monday
afternoon. As a result, enhanced lee troughing across the
northern/central Plains will expand southward into the southern High
Plains as broader surface high pressure shifts east-southeastward
into the Mid Atlantic. This will promote an increasingly favorable
dry downslope regime across the southern High Plains and adjacent
leeward locations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and CO Front
Range. Despite upper-level cloud cover, near record warmth with
temperatures in the 60s and 70s along with west winds of 10-15 mph
and minimum relative values as low as 10 percent are possible in the
lee of the Southern Rockies. Thus, Elevated highlights were expended
to cover this threat amid increasingly dry fuels. A more expansive
fire weather threat is still expected across eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle where a low-level thermal ridge and subsequent well above
normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s will align with west winds of
around 15 mph (localized 20 mph) and 15-20 percent relative humidity
by early Monday afternoon. Elevated highlights remain across this
region amid dry fuels.
..Williams.. 12/21/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the CONUS tomorrow (Monday), with
surface lee troughing continuing over the Plains states. Dry
downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with
15-20 percent RH becoming common over most locales as the boundary
layer mixes Monday afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts a corridor
of 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the
aforementioned RH for several hours Monday afternoon across eastern
New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Elevated highlights are
warranted for these conditions given the presence of dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
A subtle mid-level short wave embedded within broad westerly flow
aloft should move into the upper Missouri River Valley Monday
afternoon. As a result, enhanced lee troughing across the
northern/central Plains will expand southward into the southern High
Plains as broader surface high pressure shifts east-southeastward
into the Mid Atlantic. This will promote an increasingly favorable
dry downslope regime across the southern High Plains and adjacent
leeward locations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and CO Front
Range. Despite upper-level cloud cover, near record warmth with
temperatures in the 60s and 70s along with west winds of 10-15 mph
and minimum relative values as low as 10 percent are possible in the
lee of the Southern Rockies. Thus, Elevated highlights were expended
to cover this threat amid increasingly dry fuels. A more expansive
fire weather threat is still expected across eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle where a low-level thermal ridge and subsequent well above
normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s will align with west winds of
around 15 mph (localized 20 mph) and 15-20 percent relative humidity
by early Monday afternoon. Elevated highlights remain across this
region amid dry fuels.
..Williams.. 12/21/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the CONUS tomorrow (Monday), with
surface lee troughing continuing over the Plains states. Dry
downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with
15-20 percent RH becoming common over most locales as the boundary
layer mixes Monday afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts a corridor
of 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the
aforementioned RH for several hours Monday afternoon across eastern
New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Elevated highlights are
warranted for these conditions given the presence of dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...California...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern Pacific, a
mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet will overspread much
of northern/central CA Tuesday through Tuesday night. An attendant
surface low is forecast to develop northward along/near the coast of
northern/central CA late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will be present over this
region owing to strengthening flow aloft with the approaching
shortwave trough. However, considerable uncertainty still exists
regarding the depth/quality of low-level moisture and whether enough
instability will exist to support a meaningful change for
surface-based thunderstorms given the unfavorable time of night and
generally modest lapse rates.
Some of the more aggressive guidance (12Z RRFS) suggests that weak
but sufficient MLCAPE may develop late Tuesday into early Wednesday
to support some threat for strong/gusty winds with thunderstorms as
mid-level temperatures gradually cool with the shortwave trough
overspreading the CA Coast. Based on a consensus of other available
guidance, this potential still appears a bit too
uncertain/conditional to include low severe probabilities along the
CA Coast at this time. Regardless, the chance for elevated
convection remains apparent, and the general thunderstorm area has
been expanded across more of CA with this update.
..Gleason.. 12/21/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...California...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern Pacific, a
mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet will overspread much
of northern/central CA Tuesday through Tuesday night. An attendant
surface low is forecast to develop northward along/near the coast of
northern/central CA late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will be present over this
region owing to strengthening flow aloft with the approaching
shortwave trough. However, considerable uncertainty still exists
regarding the depth/quality of low-level moisture and whether enough
instability will exist to support a meaningful change for
surface-based thunderstorms given the unfavorable time of night and
generally modest lapse rates.
Some of the more aggressive guidance (12Z RRFS) suggests that weak
but sufficient MLCAPE may develop late Tuesday into early Wednesday
to support some threat for strong/gusty winds with thunderstorms as
mid-level temperatures gradually cool with the shortwave trough
overspreading the CA Coast. Based on a consensus of other available
guidance, this potential still appears a bit too
uncertain/conditional to include low severe probabilities along the
CA Coast at this time. Regardless, the chance for elevated
convection remains apparent, and the general thunderstorm area has
been expanded across more of CA with this update.
..Gleason.. 12/21/2025
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below.
..Thornton.. 12/21/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/
Thunderstorm potential will be limited across the CONUS. Strong
onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will pose a risk of a few
lightning flashes today and tonight over portions of the WA/OR coast
and parts of northern CA. Low-level warm advection and an
approaching cold front could result in isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon over parts of southern LA/MS, and late tonight over south
TX. No severe storms are anticipated today.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below.
..Thornton.. 12/21/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/
Thunderstorm potential will be limited across the CONUS. Strong
onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will pose a risk of a few
lightning flashes today and tonight over portions of the WA/OR coast
and parts of northern CA. Low-level warm advection and an
approaching cold front could result in isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon over parts of southern LA/MS, and late tonight over south
TX. No severe storms are anticipated today.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Minimal thunderstorm potential remains evident across much of the
CONUS on Monday, as upper-level ridging is maintained over the
central U.S. One exception may be across parts of coastal WA/OR as a
mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward from the eastern
Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through
Monday afternoon/evening. Even though daytime heating and low-level
moisture are forecast to remain limited, cool temperatures aloft and
weak MUCAPE associated with the shortwave trough may support
occasional lightning flashes with low-topped convection moving
inland along the immediate WA/OR Coast.
A plume of mid-level moisture and associated precipitation will
impact parts of northern/central CA through the period, although
warmer mid-level temperatures compared to locations farther north
and negligible forecast instability suggest little potential for
lightning. Elsewhere, very weak forcing aloft should limit
thunderstorm potential across coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast,
even as low-level moisture gradually increases across these areas.
..Gleason.. 12/21/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Minimal thunderstorm potential remains evident across much of the
CONUS on Monday, as upper-level ridging is maintained over the
central U.S. One exception may be across parts of coastal WA/OR as a
mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward from the eastern
Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through
Monday afternoon/evening. Even though daytime heating and low-level
moisture are forecast to remain limited, cool temperatures aloft and
weak MUCAPE associated with the shortwave trough may support
occasional lightning flashes with low-topped convection moving
inland along the immediate WA/OR Coast.
A plume of mid-level moisture and associated precipitation will
impact parts of northern/central CA through the period, although
warmer mid-level temperatures compared to locations farther north
and negligible forecast instability suggest little potential for
lightning. Elsewhere, very weak forcing aloft should limit
thunderstorm potential across coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast,
even as low-level moisture gradually increases across these areas.
..Gleason.. 12/21/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Minimal thunderstorm potential remains evident across much of the
CONUS on Monday, as upper-level ridging is maintained over the
central U.S. One exception may be across parts of coastal WA/OR as a
mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward from the eastern
Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through
Monday afternoon/evening. Even though daytime heating and low-level
moisture are forecast to remain limited, cool temperatures aloft and
weak MUCAPE associated with the shortwave trough may support
occasional lightning flashes with low-topped convection moving
inland along the immediate WA/OR Coast.
A plume of mid-level moisture and associated precipitation will
impact parts of northern/central CA through the period, although
warmer mid-level temperatures compared to locations farther north
and negligible forecast instability suggest little potential for
lightning. Elsewhere, very weak forcing aloft should limit
thunderstorm potential across coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast,
even as low-level moisture gradually increases across these areas.
..Gleason.. 12/21/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
.Southern and Central Plains...
Surface high pressure translating eastward into the OH River Valley
along with a deepening surface trough across the Northern Rockies
will initiate return southerly flow across much of the central
Plains. Although the landscape remains dry, the considerably cooler,
post-frontal air mass has temporarily moderated fuels across much of
the southern and central Plains. In addition, limited afternoon RH
reductions across the region will mitigate the overall fire weather
threat amid sustained south winds of 10-15 mph.
..Williams.. 12/21/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over the CONUS, resulting in surface high
pressure overspreading the eastern CONUS as a surface trough becomes
established over the Plains today. Relatively cool and/or moist
conditions will prevail over most locales east of the Rockies,
limiting the potential for significant wildfire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
.Southern and Central Plains...
Surface high pressure translating eastward into the OH River Valley
along with a deepening surface trough across the Northern Rockies
will initiate return southerly flow across much of the central
Plains. Although the landscape remains dry, the considerably cooler,
post-frontal air mass has temporarily moderated fuels across much of
the southern and central Plains. In addition, limited afternoon RH
reductions across the region will mitigate the overall fire weather
threat amid sustained south winds of 10-15 mph.
..Williams.. 12/21/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over the CONUS, resulting in surface high
pressure overspreading the eastern CONUS as a surface trough becomes
established over the Plains today. Relatively cool and/or moist
conditions will prevail over most locales east of the Rockies,
limiting the potential for significant wildfire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
.Southern and Central Plains...
Surface high pressure translating eastward into the OH River Valley
along with a deepening surface trough across the Northern Rockies
will initiate return southerly flow across much of the central
Plains. Although the landscape remains dry, the considerably cooler,
post-frontal air mass has temporarily moderated fuels across much of
the southern and central Plains. In addition, limited afternoon RH
reductions across the region will mitigate the overall fire weather
threat amid sustained south winds of 10-15 mph.
..Williams.. 12/21/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over the CONUS, resulting in surface high
pressure overspreading the eastern CONUS as a surface trough becomes
established over the Plains today. Relatively cool and/or moist
conditions will prevail over most locales east of the Rockies,
limiting the potential for significant wildfire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Thunderstorm potential will be limited across the CONUS. Strong
onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will pose a risk of a few
lightning flashes today and tonight over portions of the WA/OR coast
and parts of northern CA. Low-level warm advection and an
approaching cold front could result in isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon over parts of southern LA/MS, and late tonight over south
TX. No severe storms are anticipated today.
..Hart/Karstens.. 12/21/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Thunderstorm potential will be limited across the CONUS. Strong
onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will pose a risk of a few
lightning flashes today and tonight over portions of the WA/OR coast
and parts of northern CA. Low-level warm advection and an
approaching cold front could result in isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon over parts of southern LA/MS, and late tonight over south
TX. No severe storms are anticipated today.
..Hart/Karstens.. 12/21/2025
Read more
