Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Portions of the Southeast States... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains and into the more single-stream confluent flow across the eastern CONUS. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the central MS/AL border vicinity. A cold front extends from this low southwestward through southeast LA and into the western Gulf. Combination of these features compose the large winter storm system that is impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS. Recent regional radar imagery and surface observations reveal an extensive area of anafrontal showers and thunderstorms from east TX into MS and TN Valley. Much of this precipitation is falling as either freezing rain or sleet, with sporadic lightning accompanying this winter precipitation across east TX, northern/central LA, and western/northwestern MS. Currently, the warm sector, which extends from southeast LA across southern AL and southern MS into the FL Panhandle, is free of any thunderstorms. This is expected to change throughout the morning as continued moisture advection further modifies the airmass and modest buoyancy develops ahead of the advancing cold front. Despite the fast progression of the cold front, strong deep-layer vertical shear should allow for the maintenance of deep convection along the frontal zone once it begins to encounter the modest buoyancy. Additionally, the strong vertical shear should also allow for some organization/rotation within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary severe risk, with the risk concentrated from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle into southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle where the best thermodynamics (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) are forecast. Low-level shear is strong enough to support a tornado risk in this area as well, with the linear nature of the convection favoring brief cell-in-line/QLCS circulations (in contrast to a more discrete, supercellular mode). A few discrete cells ahead of the line cannot be entirely ruled out. However, limited residence time due to the fast-moving front and likely shallow character due to limited buoyancy should prevent these updrafts from maturing. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/25/2026 Read more

MD 0052 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...Northern South Carolina...Central and Northern North Carolina...Southern Virginia Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 250720Z - 251315Z SUMMARY...Areas of freezing rain are expected through Sunday morning from South Carolina into southern and central North Carolina. From northern North Carolina into southern Virginia, a mix of snow and sleet is expected to changeover to a mix of sleet and freezing rain by daybreak. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows abundant mid-level moisture across most of the east-central U.S. within west-southwesterly flow aloft. A broad mid-level jet extends westward from the Northeast into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Strong lift within the right entrance region of the jet combined with a broad zone of warm advection will continue to be favorable for widespread precipitation from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley eastward to the Eastern Seaboard. From the Carolinas northward, a sub-freezing airmass is in place but temperatures in the low to mid-levels are warm, with forecast soundings showing a warm nose just above 850 mb ranging from +5 To +10 C. This temperature profile will be favorable for freezing rain from South Carolina northward into southern and central North Carolina through daybreak. Further to the north across northern North Carolina and southern Virginia, low to mid-level temperatures are cold enough for a mix of snow and sleet. As strong warm advection continues over the next few hours, a gradual transition to sleet and freezing rain is expected. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34697911 34398011 34208103 34178191 34348233 34568245 34968236 35428187 36398005 36857935 37127869 37197770 37077700 36817666 36517661 36127680 35317772 34697911 Read more

MD 0053 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN MS...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...SOUTHWEST KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0053 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...Far Northern MS...Western/Middle TN...Southwest KY Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 250723Z - 251130Z SUMMARY...Mixed winter precipitation is expected to continue for at least the next several hours from northern MS across western/middle TN and into southwest KY for the next several hours. Freezing rain rates over 0.03"/hour are possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown a notable increase in reflectivity across western TN over the past half hour. Based on radar data from KNQA, this area of increased reflectivity is occurring between 3000 and 4000 ft, which is near where refreezing into sleet would occur based on area forecast soundings. Consequently, this increased reflectivity is likely more related to bright band effects than increasing precipitation rates, while also indicating where the transition zone from freezing rain to sleet is currently located. Expectation is for this transition zone to drift northward/northwestward over the next few hours as the warm nose increases slightly amid continued warm-air advection. This warm-air advection will also foster continued precipitation, confirmed by regional radar imagery showing widespread upstream precipitation. All of these factors suggest that mixed winter precipitation will continue from northern MS across western/middle TN and into southwest KY for the next several hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03"/hr. have already been observed at BNA, with similar (and higher) rates possible over the next few hours, particularly over western TN. ..Mosier.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35938959 36848885 37428764 37458617 36678557 35328654 34758871 35058981 35938959 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns are negligible for the extended forecast period. Continued eastern US troughing, reinforced by northwesterly flow out of southern Canada will replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass underneath Arctic high Pressure. While some surface cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic coast into next weekend, offshore winds should preclude robust moisture return, negating any thunderstorm or severe risk for the next several days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns are negligible for the extended forecast period. Continued eastern US troughing, reinforced by northwesterly flow out of southern Canada will replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass underneath Arctic high Pressure. While some surface cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic coast into next weekend, offshore winds should preclude robust moisture return, negating any thunderstorm or severe risk for the next several days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns are negligible for the extended forecast period. Continued eastern US troughing, reinforced by northwesterly flow out of southern Canada will replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass underneath Arctic high Pressure. While some surface cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic coast into next weekend, offshore winds should preclude robust moisture return, negating any thunderstorm or severe risk for the next several days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns are negligible for the extended forecast period. Continued eastern US troughing, reinforced by northwesterly flow out of southern Canada will replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass underneath Arctic high Pressure. While some surface cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic coast into next weekend, offshore winds should preclude robust moisture return, negating any thunderstorm or severe risk for the next several days. Read more

MD 0051 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0051 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Southern Illinois into southern Indiana and southwest Ohio Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 250500Z - 251100Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow band development is anticipated through the next several hours across portions of the Ohio River Valley. Snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch/hour appear probable later tonight. DISCUSSION...A broad band of heavier precipitation is beginning to emerge from northern AR into the lower OH Valley per regional radar mosaics over the past 1-2 hours. This comes amid strengthening frontogenesis through a deep layer (925-700 mb per recent mesoanalyses) as the primary upper wave begins to migrate eastward into the southern Plains. Latest forecast guidance shows intensifying frontogenesis across the lower MS Valley into the OH Valley through 09-12 UTC, which will support further organization/intensification of a focused mesoscale precipitation band. With mid-level temperatures below freezing north of the OH River, snow should remain the predominant precipitation type. Moderate snowfall rates will be common with a focused corridor of higher rates (in excess of 1 inch/hour) likely. Per recent ensemble guidance, this corridor will most likely emerge across southern IL into southern IN and southwest OH. These solutions also depict optimal banding potential during the 09-12 UTC period later tonight into early Sunday morning. However, recent ASOS/AWOS observations from southern IL and southern IN have shown an uptick in snowfall intensity (denoted by reduced visibilities to 1/2 mile or less) over the past hour. These trends suggest that the onset of heavier snowfall rates may commence earlier than currently anticipated by most guidance as intermittent moderate to heavy snow bands becomes more prominent with time. ..Moore.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39118269 39008330 38248609 37788746 37478836 37358887 37458924 37648940 38458944 38728928 38968886 40158461 40308388 40298326 40208288 39988248 39738234 39498228 39248243 39118269 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the eastern US will be reinforced by several smaller-scale perturbations emanating from southern Canada and the Rockies. Western US ridging will also persist ahead of a weak Pacific trough favoring northwesterly flow over the central portions of the country. An expansive Arctic air mass with surface high pressure will dominate much of the continent. Offshore flow will limit inland moisture return and destabilization negating thunderstorm potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the eastern US will be reinforced by several smaller-scale perturbations emanating from southern Canada and the Rockies. Western US ridging will also persist ahead of a weak Pacific trough favoring northwesterly flow over the central portions of the country. An expansive Arctic air mass with surface high pressure will dominate much of the continent. Offshore flow will limit inland moisture return and destabilization negating thunderstorm potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the eastern US will be reinforced by several smaller-scale perturbations emanating from southern Canada and the Rockies. Western US ridging will also persist ahead of a weak Pacific trough favoring northwesterly flow over the central portions of the country. An expansive Arctic air mass with surface high pressure will dominate much of the continent. Offshore flow will limit inland moisture return and destabilization negating thunderstorm potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the eastern US will be reinforced by several smaller-scale perturbations emanating from southern Canada and the Rockies. Western US ridging will also persist ahead of a weak Pacific trough favoring northwesterly flow over the central portions of the country. An expansive Arctic air mass with surface high pressure will dominate much of the continent. Offshore flow will limit inland moisture return and destabilization negating thunderstorm potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining instability offshore. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining instability offshore. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining instability offshore. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining instability offshore. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

MD 0050 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0050 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...portions of south-central/eastern Texas into western Louisiana Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 250452Z - 250845Z SUMMARY...Mix of freezing rain and sleet likely overnight into early Sunday. DISCUSSION...Freezing rain and occasional sleet has been ongoing from the San Antonio Metro to College Station, TX. There are reports of freezing rain accumulations around 0.05-0.10 of an inch in 3 hours. Guidance indicates that coverage of precipitation will increase over the next several hours across south-central Texas into western Louisiana as large scale ascent continues to increase. Forecast RAP soundings depict a warm layer around 850 mb above more shallow sub-freezing air near the surface supporting the primary precipitation type to be freezing rain. HREF guidance indicates increasing probabilities of at least 0.05 of an inch per 3 hr freezing rainfall rates along and north of the I-10 corridor overnight into early Sunday morning. Sleet will remain possible at times in heavier bands, especially with further north extent into the deeper cold air across northeastern Texas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 33029441 33029358 32499340 31919337 31389351 30919376 30329476 29769676 29709764 29579959 30230014 31389854 32759559 33029441 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Gulf Coast States... Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Gulf Coast States... Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Gulf Coast States... Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026 Read more