Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Gulf Coast States... Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026 Read more

MD 0049 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0049 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Northern Louisiana into eastern Arkansas...northwest Mississippi...and far western Tennessee Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 250146Z - 250645Z SUMMARY...Another round of freezing rain and sleet is expected to spread out of northern Louisiana into eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. Freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05 inch/hour appear likely for some locations. DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaics show a developing plume of precipitation across central to northern LA - likely associated with strengthening warm advection between 925-850 mb. Over the next several hours, an uptick in low-level winds should promote further augmentation of isentropic and frontogenetical ascent across the lower MS River Valley. Regional 00z RAOBs from SHV and LZK sampled a stout (4-12 C) warm layer between 850-700 mb that will melt hydrometeors as precipitation spreads north/northeast. Sub-freezing surface temperatures will promote some degree of re-freezing near the surface, though locations with temperatures at or near/below 15 F will likely be sufficiently cold (and have a sufficiently deep sub-freezing layer) to promote sleet as the predominant precipitation type. Warmer locations will likely observe freezing rain (with freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch/hour) with periods of sleet possible. Based on latest surface observations, freezing rain appears most probable across southeast AR into northwest MS with sleet more likely for locations further north into east-central AR and far western TN. ..Moore.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32499131 32369169 32359227 32459267 32909332 33239345 33509334 36089071 36279027 36238969 35928916 35648881 35388867 35128863 34838881 32499131 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on D2/Monday across the CONUS. Heights will steadily rise across the central US with continued widespread precipitation into the northeastern US. Overall, recent precipitation and continued cold temperatures will continue to mitigate any potential fire risk. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on D2/Monday across the CONUS. Heights will steadily rise across the central US with continued widespread precipitation into the northeastern US. Overall, recent precipitation and continued cold temperatures will continue to mitigate any potential fire risk. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on D2/Monday across the CONUS. Heights will steadily rise across the central US with continued widespread precipitation into the northeastern US. Overall, recent precipitation and continued cold temperatures will continue to mitigate any potential fire risk. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on D2/Monday across the CONUS. Heights will steadily rise across the central US with continued widespread precipitation into the northeastern US. Overall, recent precipitation and continued cold temperatures will continue to mitigate any potential fire risk. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...01z Update... Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026 Read more

MD 0048 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...north-central Texas...southeastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 250109Z - 250515Z SUMMARY...Mix of freezing rain and sleet to continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...Surface observations have reported periods of sleet and freezing rain across north-central Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas. Freezing rain accumulations have generally been around 0.01"/hr or less. Sleet accumulations near the Dallas Metro around 0.10-0.50"/hr. 00z soundings from FWD and LZK show a warm nose across between 850-700 mb atop sub-freezing surface temperatures. As upper-level forcing for ascent increases with the ejecting low, a mix of freezing rain and sleet can be expected to continue across this region through the next several hours. The primary precipitation type is expected to be sleet, with areas of freezing rain/mist. Freezing rain amounts should be generally less than 0.01"/hr with sleet accumulations around 0.10-0.50"/hr. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33729769 34289693 35319539 36019403 36089303 35909255 34709306 33529499 32809604 32699632 32869724 33159755 33729769 Read more

MD 0047 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0047 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Portions of the southern Appalachians Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 242345Z - 250445Z SUMMARY...A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to slowly spread north and east over the next 3-5 hours across portions of the southern Appalachians. Areas currently observing snow will likely see a transition to sleet/freezing rain during this period. Freezing rain rates of 0.05 to 0.1 inch/hour appear possible. DISCUSSION...Recent RAP/HRRR solutions appear to be capturing ongoing precipitation-type trends well per latest ASOS/AWOS observations and mPING reports. Surface observations also depict a trough axis extending from southwest AL into the southern Appalachians where surface pressure falls on the order of approximately 1 mb/hour have been noted since 18 UTC. As broad-scale ascent continues to increase with the gradual approach of the upper wave to the west, further intensification of the surface trough across the Southeast and lee of the southern Appalachians is expected with a slight augmentation of southerly low-level winds and warm air advection. This will shift the low-level freezing line northward over the next several hours, resulting in a transition from predominantly snow to a mixture of freezing rain and sleet (and potentially to rain if surface temperatures can sufficiently warm). Additionally, as low-level ascent spreads east/northeast, freezing rain/sleet should become more widespread across portions of the western Carolinas and into parts of VA - especially as low-level saturation is achieved later this evening. Latest forecast guidance continues to suggest that freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05 to 0.1 inch/hour will be possible. ..Moore.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK... OHX... LAT...LON 35968364 35848447 35848534 36048575 36278604 36598610 36788603 37178545 37808395 37998272 37958136 37858062 37467986 37017942 36367926 36017933 35767940 35337952 35067980 34888025 34878078 34998133 35288162 35578206 35858246 35988299 35968364 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream upper low is beginning to eject across northern Mexico. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well and scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of the primary midlevel vort just south of the international border. Isolated thunderstorms are noted north of the border across southeast AZ, but this activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours. However, stronger forcing is expected to aid elevated convection that will spread across portions of far West TX this evening and thunderstorm probabilities will reflect this risk through at least 06z tonight. Downstream, warm advection will continue to be the primary mechanism for more sporadic thunderstorms atop the cooler polar air mass. Additionally, boundary layer destabilization will be retarded across the lower MS Valley through 12z, and for this reason robust thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream upper low is beginning to eject across northern Mexico. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well and scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of the primary midlevel vort just south of the international border. Isolated thunderstorms are noted north of the border across southeast AZ, but this activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours. However, stronger forcing is expected to aid elevated convection that will spread across portions of far West TX this evening and thunderstorm probabilities will reflect this risk through at least 06z tonight. Downstream, warm advection will continue to be the primary mechanism for more sporadic thunderstorms atop the cooler polar air mass. Additionally, boundary layer destabilization will be retarded across the lower MS Valley through 12z, and for this reason robust thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2026 Read more

MD 0046 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into West Texas and far southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 242117Z - 250115Z SUMMARY...An increase in precipitation coverage and intensity is expected into the evening. DISCUSSION...A potent mid-level shortwave trough can be seen across northern Mexico on water vapor imagery. This trough is starting to take on a negative tilt as it advances towards Far West Texas. As this occurs, large-scale ascent will strengthen across the southern High Plains. This will result in an increase in coverage and intensity of precipitation late this afternoon and into the evening. Regional radar imagery shows this expansion beginning already with cooling cloud tops upstream across northern Mexico and Far West Texas. Forecast soundings support sleet across much of this area late this afternoon and into early evening. However, the sleet/snow line will move gradually southeast through the evening as temperatures cool aloft. Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snow accumulations of 1 inch per hour are expected as forcing increases. Particularly closer to 00Z. ..Bentley.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 34160314 34690180 34790008 34479925 32320005 30890161 30150217 30130305 30490430 32110449 34160314 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 24 22:24:01 UTC 2026.

MD 0046 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into West Texas and far southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 242117Z - 250115Z SUMMARY...An increase in precipitation coverage and intensity is expected into the evening. DISCUSSION...A potent mid-level shortwave trough can be seen across northern Mexico on water vapor imagery. This trough is starting to take on a negative tilt as it advances towards Far West Texas. As this occurs, large-scale ascent will strengthen across the southern High Plains. This will result in an increase in coverage and intensity of precipitation late this afternoon and into the evening. Regional radar imagery shows this expansion beginning already with cooling cloud tops upstream across northern Mexico and Far West Texas. Forecast soundings support sleet across much of this area late this afternoon and into early evening. However, the sleet/snow line will move gradually southeast through the evening as temperatures cool aloft. Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snow accumulations of 1 inch per hour are expected as forcing increases. Particularly closer to 00Z. ..Bentley.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 34160314 34690180 34790008 34479925 32320005 30890161 30150217 30130305 30490430 32110449 34160314 Read more

MD 0045 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN MS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...northern MS to the southern Appalachians Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 241817Z - 242345Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain mixed with sleet is expected to expand across parts of the Tennessee Valley to the southern Appalachians through late afternoon. The most likely corridor for appreciable accretion appears centered on north-central Mississippi, northwest Alabama, and southeast Tennessee. DISCUSSION...A broad swath of mixed winter precip is ongoing from KY/TN southwest to LA. The initial leading activity has largely remained as sleet and snow, with greater liquid-equivalent rates in sleet, freezing rain, and rain over LA. This latter plume is expected to be the most prolific for freezing rain rates as it shifts northeast through late afternoon. Liquid-equivalent rates of .05 to .25 in/hr should remain common. Despite ample low-level isentropic ascent, guidance is quite insistent on expanding the above-freezing warm nose north-northeast across northern MS to eastern TN through 00Z. A 15Z UL-Monroe sounding sampled around 12C at 900 mb, indicative of a classic freezing rain/mixed sleet profile. The overall setup suggests that these should become the primary PTYPEs across central/northern MS through northwest AL to southeast TN. ..Grams.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34209026 35448831 36048675 36338482 36348395 36048318 35708306 35228341 34968374 34838495 34278684 33138962 33659021 34209026 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes to the thunderstorm forecast were made based on current observations. Cold air remains in place across the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon with ongoing and expected precipitation reinforcing this airmass through Sunday morning. As previously mentioned, a slow improvement in the environment is possible from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and western Alabama. Given the current observations, it may take longer to move warm/moist air inland than expected. Confidence in this occurring before 12Z Sunday remains too low for severe probabilities. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/ ...LA/MS/AL Overnight... The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period. Read more