Storm Prediction Center

MD 0031 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0914 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southwestern NY and northwestern PA Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 220314Z - 220545Z SUMMARY...A snow squall will continue tracking eastward across parts of southwestern New York and northwestern Pennsylvania during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A snow squall has recently organized/intensified as it moves eastward out of Ontario Canada. As the squall passed over KBUF, visibility dropped to 1/8 mile with a 28-kt gust. As ascent in the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet streak continues overspreading western NY, the snow squall will continue tracking eastward along an associated surface winds shift during the next few hours. Around 40-45 kt of west-southwesterly flow in the lowest 1 km AGL (sampled by regional VWPs) and modestly steepened low-level lapse rates will continue to support strong gusts and visibility reductions of 1/4 mile or less in bursts of heavy snow. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41528029 42327910 43377777 43447723 43407677 43187641 42807632 42277675 41607749 41227817 40977886 40927942 40997995 41198031 41528029 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of far east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Additionally, a few lightning strikes may be possible late tonight across southeast Florida. ... 01Z Update... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States this evening and tonight. A few lightning strikes may be possible across a couple different areas. ... Far East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley ... A mid-level short-wave trough continues to through the larger-scale eastern US trough. Modest low-level warm advection associated with this short-wave trough will continue to support showers and a lightning strike or two across the area tonight. ... Southeast Florida ... A subtle short-wave trough and associated mid-level speed maximum will move northeast from the Gulf across northern Florida within the subtropical jet. Modest large-scale ascent associated with the right entrance region of this speed max may support showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two very late tonight. ..Marsh.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. ..Hart/Lyons.. 01/21/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 21 16:21:02 UTC 2026.

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 21 16:21:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to support severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to support severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore, but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited, precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore, but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited, precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening. ...DISCUSSION... A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However, no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening. ...DISCUSSION... A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However, no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Eastern Seaboard. A dry and cold airmass will remain over much of the continental U.S. through tonight, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2026 Read more