Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today. ...North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... A prominent upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will continue to take on a negative tilt as it quickly transitions east-northeastward toward New England the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A very strong deep-layer wind field (80-110 kt at 500 mb) is attendant to this trough, with these strong winds aloft partially overlapping a modestly moist/minimally unstable warm sector along the I-95 corridor/East Coast ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. A strongly forced semi-organized low-topped convective line, with little or no lightning flashes, is ongoing around sunrise across northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia, and this may further develop north-northeastward across additional portions of the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. Even with minimal buoyancy, some stronger/locally severe wind gusts could occur this morning, and possibly through early afternoon across parts of the near-coastal Northeast. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/19/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each day. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized areas of thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province will move east on Sunday, as an upstream upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface cold front will move across the eastern/southeast U.S. as an expansive high pressure system becomes established behind the front. Generally weak buoyancy may develop near the TX and LA coastal areas where heating of 60s surface dew points takes place, however little in the way of large-scale ascent is expected in this region. Thus, while an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the lower MS Valley in the vicinity of the front, the overall potential for thunderstorms appears too limited for the introduction of a 10 percent area with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized areas of thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province will move east on Sunday, as an upstream upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface cold front will move across the eastern/southeast U.S. as an expansive high pressure system becomes established behind the front. Generally weak buoyancy may develop near the TX and LA coastal areas where heating of 60s surface dew points takes place, however little in the way of large-scale ascent is expected in this region. Thus, while an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the lower MS Valley in the vicinity of the front, the overall potential for thunderstorms appears too limited for the introduction of a 10 percent area with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FOOTHILLS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20 mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FOOTHILLS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20 mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FOOTHILLS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20 mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production. Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region. The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday night. ..Bunting.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production. Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region. The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday night. ..Bunting.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production. Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region. The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday night. ..Bunting.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection over the Mid Atlantic today. ...Mid Atlantic... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel trough over the MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to take a more negative-tilt orientation by late morning as 100+kt 500mb speed max develops/translates across the Mid Atlantic by 18z. Impressive 12hr height falls at 500mb will overspread the OH Valley into New England where values will range from 240-300m in response to this strong feature. Needless to say, very strong wind fields will provide background support for organized frontal convection. HREF guidance is in general agreement that a narrow strongly forced line of convection will develop along the surging cold front early in the period. Forecast soundings do not exhibit more than weak SBCAPE with this frontal convection, but some mixing is expected given that 0-3km lapse rates should be on the order of 7 C/km. 40kt mean wind within this layer is expected to contribute to gusty winds with this activity. Have introduced MRGL Risk of damaging winds to account for strong gusts with a narrow line of convection that will surge east along the front. Given the limited buoyancy across southern New England will not introduce wind probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection over the Mid Atlantic today. ...Mid Atlantic... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel trough over the MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to take a more negative-tilt orientation by late morning as 100+kt 500mb speed max develops/translates across the Mid Atlantic by 18z. Impressive 12hr height falls at 500mb will overspread the OH Valley into New England where values will range from 240-300m in response to this strong feature. Needless to say, very strong wind fields will provide background support for organized frontal convection. HREF guidance is in general agreement that a narrow strongly forced line of convection will develop along the surging cold front early in the period. Forecast soundings do not exhibit more than weak SBCAPE with this frontal convection, but some mixing is expected given that 0-3km lapse rates should be on the order of 7 C/km. 40kt mean wind within this layer is expected to contribute to gusty winds with this activity. Have introduced MRGL Risk of damaging winds to account for strong gusts with a narrow line of convection that will surge east along the front. Given the limited buoyancy across southern New England will not introduce wind probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection over the Mid Atlantic today. ...Mid Atlantic... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel trough over the MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to take a more negative-tilt orientation by late morning as 100+kt 500mb speed max develops/translates across the Mid Atlantic by 18z. Impressive 12hr height falls at 500mb will overspread the OH Valley into New England where values will range from 240-300m in response to this strong feature. Needless to say, very strong wind fields will provide background support for organized frontal convection. HREF guidance is in general agreement that a narrow strongly forced line of convection will develop along the surging cold front early in the period. Forecast soundings do not exhibit more than weak SBCAPE with this frontal convection, but some mixing is expected given that 0-3km lapse rates should be on the order of 7 C/km. 40kt mean wind within this layer is expected to contribute to gusty winds with this activity. Have introduced MRGL Risk of damaging winds to account for strong gusts with a narrow line of convection that will surge east along the front. Given the limited buoyancy across southern New England will not introduce wind probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 Read more

MD 2264 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 642... FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 2264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Deep South Concerning...Tornado Watch 642... Valid 190054Z - 190230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 642 continues. SUMMARY...Limited tornado and strong gust threats should persist for at least a few more hours as broken bands of thunderstorms consolidate into a line, with the greatest potential across east-central Mississippi into western Alabama. An additional WW issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have largely diminished, but one is still ongoing in Newton County, MS. The east-central MS/western AL area will have the primary near-term tornado threat, owing to its proximity to modest but weakening buoyancy sampled by the 00Z JAN sounding. 5.5 to 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates in the JAN/BNA/BMX soundings will remain a limiting factor to more intense updrafts. But enlarged low-level hodographs and persistent low 60s surface dew points will support potential for a tornado or two. Farther north-northeast, faster propagation of cold front convection relative to the pre-frontal swath should yield consolidation into a QLCS that progresses towards the southern Appalachians. Strong gusts capable of locally damaging winds should be the main threat as surface-based instability becomes negligible, east and north of central AL where mid to upper 50s surface dew points persist. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 32538919 32868837 33718783 34618766 35068736 35468708 35688639 35648624 35608585 35238575 34808582 34388589 33958607 33538627 32948704 32568752 32408794 32258830 32538919 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW MEI TO 40 NNE CBM TO 25 NE MSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2264. ..GRAMS..12/19/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-057-059-063-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-107-119-125- 127-133-190240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MORGAN PICKENS SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON MSC069-103-190240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KEMPER NOXUBEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 642 TORNADO AL MS 182305Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Alabama Eastern Mississippi * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells are forecast to continue to mature and move east-northeast within a moist and strongly sheared environment across the Watch area. Gradual destabilization will occur immediately ahead of the storm activity this evening. The primary threats accompanying the stronger storms will be damaging gusts and the possibility for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Huntsville AL to 70 miles south southwest of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, remain possible this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel trough is advancing across the MS Valley early this evening. Associated pronounced surface front has surged into southeast MI-western KY-northwest MS. This boundary will shift across much of the OH/TN Valleys by late evening as the dynamic trough induces strong height falls across this region. Latest radar data reflects this with a strongly forced line of frontal convection. A few strong gusts have been reported along the northern sections of this linear MCS. Of potentially more concern is convection that has developed ahead of the front across eastern MS into northwest AL. This activity has evolved within a greater buoyancy air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. Lower 60s surface dew points have contributed to this instability and a few supercells have matured and are advancing east across Tornado Watch #0642. Greatest risk for organized severe will remain focused across the northern Gulf states this evening. Damaging winds, along with some tornado risk continues. Risk of severe will increase late tonight near the Outer Banks region of NC, and for this region will maintain MRGL Risk. ..Darrow.. 12/19/2025 Read more