Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of Florida. Severe potential appears low at this time. ...Florida... An upper trough will develop east from the Plains toward the eastern U.S. on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of 30-40 kt 850-700 mb west/southwest flow will overspread portions of the FL Peninsula atop a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across north-central FL. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs with modestly curved low-level hodographs in the vicinity of the surface boundary during the afternoon into early evening. Surface heating will be somewhat muted by cloud cover, and persistent showers/isolated thunderstorms in the warm advection regime to the cool side of the boundary. Furthermore, midlevel temperatures are forecast to be rather warm, limiting lapse rates, and instability will remain weak (generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). This should largely limit severe potential. However, a stronger, rotating storm offshore from west-central FL could approach the coast during the afternoon/early evening. While a strong gust or waterspout could occur with this activity, over all risk appears too low/conditional, and limited in spatial extent, to include probabilities. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of Florida. Severe potential appears low at this time. ...Florida... An upper trough will develop east from the Plains toward the eastern U.S. on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of 30-40 kt 850-700 mb west/southwest flow will overspread portions of the FL Peninsula atop a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across north-central FL. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs with modestly curved low-level hodographs in the vicinity of the surface boundary during the afternoon into early evening. Surface heating will be somewhat muted by cloud cover, and persistent showers/isolated thunderstorms in the warm advection regime to the cool side of the boundary. Furthermore, midlevel temperatures are forecast to be rather warm, limiting lapse rates, and instability will remain weak (generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). This should largely limit severe potential. However, a stronger, rotating storm offshore from west-central FL could approach the coast during the afternoon/early evening. While a strong gust or waterspout could occur with this activity, over all risk appears too low/conditional, and limited in spatial extent, to include probabilities. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of Florida. Severe potential appears low at this time. ...Florida... An upper trough will develop east from the Plains toward the eastern U.S. on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of 30-40 kt 850-700 mb west/southwest flow will overspread portions of the FL Peninsula atop a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across north-central FL. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs with modestly curved low-level hodographs in the vicinity of the surface boundary during the afternoon into early evening. Surface heating will be somewhat muted by cloud cover, and persistent showers/isolated thunderstorms in the warm advection regime to the cool side of the boundary. Furthermore, midlevel temperatures are forecast to be rather warm, limiting lapse rates, and instability will remain weak (generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). This should largely limit severe potential. However, a stronger, rotating storm offshore from west-central FL could approach the coast during the afternoon/early evening. While a strong gust or waterspout could occur with this activity, over all risk appears too low/conditional, and limited in spatial extent, to include probabilities. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. Accelerating northwest flow aloft over the Four Corners region along with a deepening lee trough across the central and southern High Plains will support increased westerly downslope winds and drying across east-central NM and TX Permian Basin through today. Greatest RH reductions to around 15 percent are expected across the Permian Basin vicinity by the afternoon. Although dry conditions will be coupled with sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph with higher gusts), fuels remain largely unreceptive to significant wildfire spread, mitigating the overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies, with a lee cyclone developing across the central Plains. The resulting increase in surface pressure gradient will support enhancement of westerly downslope flow across portions of east central New Mexico into the Texas Permian Basin. While some overlap of dry and breezy conditions is likely, fuels in this region are not receptive to spread after recent cool and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. Accelerating northwest flow aloft over the Four Corners region along with a deepening lee trough across the central and southern High Plains will support increased westerly downslope winds and drying across east-central NM and TX Permian Basin through today. Greatest RH reductions to around 15 percent are expected across the Permian Basin vicinity by the afternoon. Although dry conditions will be coupled with sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph with higher gusts), fuels remain largely unreceptive to significant wildfire spread, mitigating the overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies, with a lee cyclone developing across the central Plains. The resulting increase in surface pressure gradient will support enhancement of westerly downslope flow across portions of east central New Mexico into the Texas Permian Basin. While some overlap of dry and breezy conditions is likely, fuels in this region are not receptive to spread after recent cool and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. Accelerating northwest flow aloft over the Four Corners region along with a deepening lee trough across the central and southern High Plains will support increased westerly downslope winds and drying across east-central NM and TX Permian Basin through today. Greatest RH reductions to around 15 percent are expected across the Permian Basin vicinity by the afternoon. Although dry conditions will be coupled with sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph with higher gusts), fuels remain largely unreceptive to significant wildfire spread, mitigating the overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies, with a lee cyclone developing across the central Plains. The resulting increase in surface pressure gradient will support enhancement of westerly downslope flow across portions of east central New Mexico into the Texas Permian Basin. While some overlap of dry and breezy conditions is likely, fuels in this region are not receptive to spread after recent cool and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL Peninsula today. ..Smith/Barnes.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL Peninsula today. ..Smith/Barnes.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL Peninsula today. ..Smith/Barnes.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over much of the central and eastern CONUS today. Appreciable low-level moisture to support thunderstorms will remain generally confined along/south of a cold front extending from the Gulf northeastward across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Large-scale ascent and low-level convergence along this boundary are both forecast to remain weak, with poor lapse rates aloft also contributing to limited instability over land. While an occasional shower may reach sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning across parts of the central FL Peninsula, the overall coverage of thunderstorms over land should remain quite isolated. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over much of the central and eastern CONUS today. Appreciable low-level moisture to support thunderstorms will remain generally confined along/south of a cold front extending from the Gulf northeastward across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic. Large-scale ascent and low-level convergence along this boundary are both forecast to remain weak, with poor lapse rates aloft also contributing to limited instability over land. While an occasional shower may reach sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning across parts of the central FL Peninsula, the overall coverage of thunderstorms over land should remain quite isolated. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/06/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic. Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic. Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist return flow. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... It appears that the center of a prominent mid-level vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity during the next day or two will continue redeveloping east-southeastward into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity through this period. To the southwest and south of this feature, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to be maintained east of the Rockies through the western Atlantic, as far south as the northern and central Gulf Basin, downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific through Pacific Coast and Intermountain West. Models indicate some amplification of the mid-level troughing across the northwestern Gulf coast and Gulf Basin, and perhaps some downstream suppression of subtropical ridging across the Caribbean and Bahamas, as a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air contributes to the southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin. At the same time, it appears that a short wave impulse progressing through the crest of the larger-scale ridge will contribute to fairly significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high plains, but dry stable conditions will be maintained there and across much of the remainder of the U.S. ...Florida... It appears that weak forcing for ascent and instability will tend to limit the risk for thunderstorm development along/ahead the southward advancing front, but NAM forecast soundings suggest at least some potential for thunderstorm development near southeast coastal areas Monday afternoon into evening. ..Kerr.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS on D2/Sunday. A cold front will usher in cooler and drier conditions across the Plains with lighter winds amid building surface high pressure. Upper level ridging will continue across the western US, with warming and dry conditions but light winds. Overall, overlap of receptive fuels and breezy/dry conditions is not expected. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern/central Rockies, with a lee cyclone developing across the central Plains. The resulting increase in surface pressure gradient will support enhancement of westerly downslope flow across portions of east central New Mexico into the Texas Permian Basin. While some overlap of dry and breezy conditions is likely, fuels in this region are not receptive to spread after recent cool and wet conditions. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms across the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this period. Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the larger-scale, but one embedded vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity may redevelop southeastward through central Quebec, while at least a couple of short wave perturbations consolidate within another branch of cyclonic flow across the central/southern Great Plains through Southeast. This latter development may be accompanied by modest mid-level height falls as far south as the central Florida Peninsula by late Sunday night, along with a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air across the Gulf coast into northwestern Gulf Basin. Downstream, a weak low may begin to develop along the initial stalled/slow moving frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels, associated with subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean and adjacent western Atlantic, may tend to suppress convective potential, particularly across the southern into central peninsula through at least Sunday evening. However, beneath a belt of modest west-southwesterly low-level flow (20-30 kt around 850 mb), an initially drier boundary layer over the interior into eastern peninsula may moisten and become potentially unstable by late Sunday afternoon into evening. It is possible that this could become supportive of a period of thunderstorm development, mainly focused along/ahead of the cold front as it advances into and across the Interstate 4 corridor. At least some machine learning guidance suggests that the environment could become supportive of low probabilities for severe weather, mainly in the form of a generally brief, weak tornado or two. With sufficient boundary-layer moistening, forecast soundings do depict the development of modest low-level hodographs, and strong deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt flow around 500 mb. At this point, however, this potential still appears too conditional to introduce a categorical severe risk, based on latest HREF and other model guidance. But trends will continue to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Mean long-wave trough is expected to remain centered across the eastern Plains/MS Valley through the day1 period. Negligible height changes are expected across lower latitudes which will result in a synoptic front oscillating across the northern/central FL Peninsula. This boundary will serve as the primary focus for the potential for isolated thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance is not particularly aggressive in air mass destabilization across the Peninsula, but showers and a few thunderstorms should develop along/north of the boundary as deep westerly flow provides weak lift atop the frontal zone. While deep-layer shear is strong, weak buoyancy and poor lapse rates do not support robust or organized severe updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight. ...01 Update... Surface front has advanced across the northern FL Peninsula early this evening. Weak convection is noted along/behind this boundary, but the more robust updrafts are now offshore where isolated flashes of lightning are noted off the GA Coast. Latest diagnostic data does not appear particularly favorable for deep convection along the wind shift tonight, and post frontal elevated buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak. Current thinking is the primary risk for isolated thunderstorms will be well off the GA/SC Coasts. ..Darrow.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Model guidance consensus indicates little deviation in the overall upper-level pattern across CONUS through next week. Ridging nudges further into CA and the Southwest while troughing persists across the eastern U.S. A warming and drying trend under the ridge should continue across the much of the Southwest, CA and Southern Plains through much of next week while colder/wetter conditions exist across the eastern U.S., largely mitigating fire weather threats. A dry cold front will initially shutter fire weather concerns across the Southern Plains Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday, with relatively warm temperatures returning midweek contributing to drying of fuels across the region. A strengthening polar jet across the Northern Rockies and central/northern Plains and subsequent stronger surface cyclogenesis in the Central Plains could promote dry and breezy conditions across eastern NM/West TX vicinity on Day 7/Thursday. However, uncertainty in fuels and relative humidity reductions limits confidence in introducing critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 12/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more