Storm Prediction Center

MD 2251 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Areas affected...central Iowa Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 070054Z - 070400Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow to continue across portions of central Iowa over the next couple of hours. Occasional rates 1"/hr with heavier bands. DISCUSSION...Recent radar and surface observations suggest moderate to heavy snow continues across portions of central Iowa. This is occurring near the surface low and in the region of strong DPVA aloft overspreading central Iowa. Two regions that will favor heavy snow (possible 1"/hr rates) over the next couple of hours are near the zone of 700-850 mb frontogenesis across central Iowa north of Des Moines and in a smaller mesoscale sector along and south of I-80 and trending eastward of I-35 where a more narrow band of heavy snow has developed. Guidance indicates a gradual downward trend in snowfall rates is expected through the late evening/early morning Sunday. However, periods of locally moderate snow may continue at times across northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41659462 41259415 40959400 40789385 40689358 40719337 40909298 41079272 41409255 42279223 42579245 42759301 42839358 42509421 41659462 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near a portion of the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast during the early morning Sunday. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for appreciable lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the period. However, elevated thunderstorms are expected to commence across the north-central to northeast Gulf Coast overnight. Some of this activity might approach the nearshore waters and immediate coastline over the MS River Delta and the FL Panhandle before 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near a portion of the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast during the early morning Sunday. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for appreciable lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the period. However, elevated thunderstorms are expected to commence across the north-central to northeast Gulf Coast overnight. Some of this activity might approach the nearshore waters and immediate coastline over the MS River Delta and the FL Panhandle before 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near a portion of the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast during the early morning Sunday. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for appreciable lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the period. However, elevated thunderstorms are expected to commence across the north-central to northeast Gulf Coast overnight. Some of this activity might approach the nearshore waters and immediate coastline over the MS River Delta and the FL Panhandle before 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 12/07/2025 Read more

MD 2250 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2250 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast South Dakota and northwestern Iowa Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 061825Z - 070030Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snowfall are developing across portions of far southeastern SD, and will continue to expand into northwestern IA within an hour or two. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5" per hour can be expected. DISCUSSION...An area of moderate to heavy snow is expected to broaden this afternoon through this evening across northwestern IA, as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches. Increasing DPVA will accompany this feature, in addition to strong isentropic ascent. Most NWP models and forecast soundings suggest omega will peak within the dendritic growth zone through ~22Z over northwestern IA. HREF probabilities of QPF greater than 0.10" per hour, combined with snow to liquid ratios around 15-20 to 1, also support this time frame for the heaviest snowfall. ..Barnes.. 12/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 43709693 43699633 43629615 43589590 43509545 43439511 43249476 43069448 42829426 42399452 42339494 42149520 42109535 42119548 42159557 42189572 42229581 42269592 42269606 42339633 42429642 42559654 42699686 42849722 42999725 43449725 43709693 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 6 23:36:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure moving into the eastern U.S. will promote benign fire weather conditions across the region Day 3/Monday, including additional rainfall over the Southeast along an advancing cold front. A mid-level short wave translating southeastward within broad northwesterly flow aloft should reach the Northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday. A corresponding surface cyclone over the Dakotas and southward extending lee troughing along the High Plains should support dry and breezy downslope conditions across eastern NM and portions of West TX by Tuesday afternoon. However, even with additional days of drying through Tuesday, fuels are expected to remain muted, reducing the overall fire weather threat. A stronger polar jet develops within a gradually amplifying upper-level wave pattern over CONUS through late next week as mid-level troughing persists across the eastern U.S. while ridging builds further into the western states. This will support another cold air mass intrusion into the eastern U.S. while much of the Great Basin, CA and the Southwest remain dry within a lighter wind regime under the expanding/advancing ridge, limiting broader fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 12/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure moving into the eastern U.S. will promote benign fire weather conditions across the region Day 3/Monday, including additional rainfall over the Southeast along an advancing cold front. A mid-level short wave translating southeastward within broad northwesterly flow aloft should reach the Northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday. A corresponding surface cyclone over the Dakotas and southward extending lee troughing along the High Plains should support dry and breezy downslope conditions across eastern NM and portions of West TX by Tuesday afternoon. However, even with additional days of drying through Tuesday, fuels are expected to remain muted, reducing the overall fire weather threat. A stronger polar jet develops within a gradually amplifying upper-level wave pattern over CONUS through late next week as mid-level troughing persists across the eastern U.S. while ridging builds further into the western states. This will support another cold air mass intrusion into the eastern U.S. while much of the Great Basin, CA and the Southwest remain dry within a lighter wind regime under the expanding/advancing ridge, limiting broader fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 12/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure moving into the eastern U.S. will promote benign fire weather conditions across the region Day 3/Monday, including additional rainfall over the Southeast along an advancing cold front. A mid-level short wave translating southeastward within broad northwesterly flow aloft should reach the Northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday. A corresponding surface cyclone over the Dakotas and southward extending lee troughing along the High Plains should support dry and breezy downslope conditions across eastern NM and portions of West TX by Tuesday afternoon. However, even with additional days of drying through Tuesday, fuels are expected to remain muted, reducing the overall fire weather threat. A stronger polar jet develops within a gradually amplifying upper-level wave pattern over CONUS through late next week as mid-level troughing persists across the eastern U.S. while ridging builds further into the western states. This will support another cold air mass intrusion into the eastern U.S. while much of the Great Basin, CA and the Southwest remain dry within a lighter wind regime under the expanding/advancing ridge, limiting broader fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 12/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS appears limited through Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... Recent TAMDAR sounding data from the Florida Peninsula show very poor lapse rates and implied layers of subsidence. This is also evident in forecast soundings. Given minimal ascent throughout the troposphere, the potential for thunderstorms appears lower than 10% through Sunday morning. ..Wendt.. 12/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL Peninsula today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS appears limited through Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... Recent TAMDAR sounding data from the Florida Peninsula show very poor lapse rates and implied layers of subsidence. This is also evident in forecast soundings. Given minimal ascent throughout the troposphere, the potential for thunderstorms appears lower than 10% through Sunday morning. ..Wendt.. 12/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL Peninsula today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS appears limited through Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... Recent TAMDAR sounding data from the Florida Peninsula show very poor lapse rates and implied layers of subsidence. This is also evident in forecast soundings. Given minimal ascent throughout the troposphere, the potential for thunderstorms appears lower than 10% through Sunday morning. ..Wendt.. 12/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL Peninsula today. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as limited fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous U.S. Sunday. Breezy north/northwest winds are expected across southern Texas as a cold front moves southward through the state. However, limited RH reductions and lack of receptive fuels will mitigate the overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS on D2/Sunday. A cold front will usher in cooler and drier conditions across the Plains with lighter winds amid building surface high pressure. Upper level ridging will continue across the western US, with warming and dry conditions but light winds. Overall, overlap of receptive fuels and breezy/dry conditions is not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as limited fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous U.S. Sunday. Breezy north/northwest winds are expected across southern Texas as a cold front moves southward through the state. However, limited RH reductions and lack of receptive fuels will mitigate the overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS on D2/Sunday. A cold front will usher in cooler and drier conditions across the Plains with lighter winds amid building surface high pressure. Upper level ridging will continue across the western US, with warming and dry conditions but light winds. Overall, overlap of receptive fuels and breezy/dry conditions is not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as limited fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous U.S. Sunday. Breezy north/northwest winds are expected across southern Texas as a cold front moves southward through the state. However, limited RH reductions and lack of receptive fuels will mitigate the overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS on D2/Sunday. A cold front will usher in cooler and drier conditions across the Plains with lighter winds amid building surface high pressure. Upper level ridging will continue across the western US, with warming and dry conditions but light winds. Overall, overlap of receptive fuels and breezy/dry conditions is not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as limited fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous U.S. Sunday. Breezy north/northwest winds are expected across southern Texas as a cold front moves southward through the state. However, limited RH reductions and lack of receptive fuels will mitigate the overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 12/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS on D2/Sunday. A cold front will usher in cooler and drier conditions across the Plains with lighter winds amid building surface high pressure. Upper level ridging will continue across the western US, with warming and dry conditions but light winds. Overall, overlap of receptive fuels and breezy/dry conditions is not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...South Florida... Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday, through deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will weaken as an embedded jet streak moves off the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will extend across central FL Monday morning, and develop southward through afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day and persist southward ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates/weak instability and generally modest surface to 700 mb westerly flow will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...South Florida... Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday, through deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will weaken as an embedded jet streak moves off the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will extend across central FL Monday morning, and develop southward through afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day and persist southward ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates/weak instability and generally modest surface to 700 mb westerly flow will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...South Florida... Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday, through deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will weaken as an embedded jet streak moves off the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will extend across central FL Monday morning, and develop southward through afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day and persist southward ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates/weak instability and generally modest surface to 700 mb westerly flow will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/06/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 6 17:33:01 UTC 2025.