Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as minimal fire weather concerns remain across CONUS. Across southern TX, unreceptive fuels should counter impacts from enhanced northwesterly winds and dry conditions being ushered in by an advancing cold front. ..Williams.. 12/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. A cold front will drop southward across the Southern Plains. A few localized areas of breezy/dry conditions may overlap temporarily across far southern Texas ahead of the cold front. Fuels in this region are not receptive to fire spread, and as such no areas are included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through the evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA coasts by mid-late evening. Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period, as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula. ..Smith/Barnes.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through the evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA coasts by mid-late evening. Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period, as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula. ..Smith/Barnes.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through the evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA coasts by mid-late evening. Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period, as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula. ..Smith/Barnes.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through the evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA coasts by mid-late evening. Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period, as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula. ..Smith/Barnes.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon and evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms will develop today across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely west-east oriented front. Downstream cloudiness/precipitation along and north of the front will support pronounced differential heating across the north-central FL Peninsula. Latest guidance continues to suggest that scattered convection will move onshore late this afternoon/early evening within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the Southeast. Poor mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor to convective intensity (reference 12Z sounding from TBW). But, adequate deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer forecast across central FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized damaging winds are possible. Modest low-level shear/SRH may also be sufficient for a brief tornado or two. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon and evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms will develop today across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely west-east oriented front. Downstream cloudiness/precipitation along and north of the front will support pronounced differential heating across the north-central FL Peninsula. Latest guidance continues to suggest that scattered convection will move onshore late this afternoon/early evening within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the Southeast. Poor mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor to convective intensity (reference 12Z sounding from TBW). But, adequate deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer forecast across central FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized damaging winds are possible. Modest low-level shear/SRH may also be sufficient for a brief tornado or two. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon and evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms will develop today across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely west-east oriented front. Downstream cloudiness/precipitation along and north of the front will support pronounced differential heating across the north-central FL Peninsula. Latest guidance continues to suggest that scattered convection will move onshore late this afternoon/early evening within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the Southeast. Poor mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor to convective intensity (reference 12Z sounding from TBW). But, adequate deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer forecast across central FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized damaging winds are possible. Modest low-level shear/SRH may also be sufficient for a brief tornado or two. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate little substantive change to the large-scale mid/upper flow impacting the U.S. through this period. Broad ridging is likely to persist across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies, with downstream troughing east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard and western Atlantic. The troughing is likely to be reinforced by another significant short wave perturbation, digging within northwesterly flow to the lee of the crest of the ridge. It appears that this will be accompanied by a rapidly migrating cyclone across the northern Great Plains through much of the upper Great Lakes region by late tonight. In the wake of this feature, models indicate an increasingly significant intrusion of cold air will begin to surge southward into parts of the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, preceded by strengthening flow veering to an increasing westerly component as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity. Even as the Gulf boundary layer begins to modify to the north of a stalling and weakening front, south of the Florida Peninsula through the southern Gulf Basin, appreciable inland moisture is unlikely through this period and beyond. ..Kerr.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate little substantive change to the large-scale mid/upper flow impacting the U.S. through this period. Broad ridging is likely to persist across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies, with downstream troughing east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard and western Atlantic. The troughing is likely to be reinforced by another significant short wave perturbation, digging within northwesterly flow to the lee of the crest of the ridge. It appears that this will be accompanied by a rapidly migrating cyclone across the northern Great Plains through much of the upper Great Lakes region by late tonight. In the wake of this feature, models indicate an increasingly significant intrusion of cold air will begin to surge southward into parts of the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, preceded by strengthening flow veering to an increasing westerly component as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity. Even as the Gulf boundary layer begins to modify to the north of a stalling and weakening front, south of the Florida Peninsula through the southern Gulf Basin, appreciable inland moisture is unlikely through this period and beyond. ..Kerr.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Monday. Surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will move eastward with a cool continental air mass across much of the Plains. Some lingering dry/breezy conditions will linger across the Texas Permian Basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will keep the overall fire threat low. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Monday. Surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will move eastward with a cool continental air mass across much of the Plains. Some lingering dry/breezy conditions will linger across the Texas Permian Basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will keep the overall fire threat low. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and, perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity during this period. However, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S Intermountain West. One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians, across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the Caribbean and Bahamas. In lower levels, an associated reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin. At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and across much of the remainder of the U.S. ...Southern Florida/Keys... Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing front. Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas, limited as well. ..Kerr.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and, perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity during this period. However, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S Intermountain West. One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians, across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the Caribbean and Bahamas. In lower levels, an associated reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin. At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and across much of the remainder of the U.S. ...Southern Florida/Keys... Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing front. Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas, limited as well. ..Kerr.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. A cold front will drop southward across the Southern Plains. A few localized areas of breezy/dry conditions may overlap temporarily across far southern Texas ahead of the cold front. Fuels in this region are not receptive to fire spread, and as such no areas are included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. A cold front will drop southward across the Southern Plains. A few localized areas of breezy/dry conditions may overlap temporarily across far southern Texas ahead of the cold front. Fuels in this region are not receptive to fire spread, and as such no areas are included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible, mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening. ...FL Peninsula... Abundant convective development is expected later this morning across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two. ..Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible, mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening. ...FL Peninsula... Abundant convective development is expected later this morning across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two. ..Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025 Read more