SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...SOUTHWEST...AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...
An area of Isolated Dry Thunder was introduced over portions of
central/northern UT and western WY on Day 2/Sunday near the
previously mentioned frontal boundary. Isolated thunderstorm
coverage amid a significant sub-cloud dry layer, combined with
limited precipitable water near 1/2 inch, and quick storm motion
near 25-35 kts over receptive fuels will lead to the threat of dry
lightning ignitions in the morning hours and again by peak heating
in the early/mid afternoon hours.
Regarding the surface wind/RH threat, a few small changes were made.
The Critical area was expanded over much of northeast AZ as the
latest forecast guidance has trended toward strong winds over this
region amid the hot and very low RHs. Keep in mind that should
ignitions occur over this region, burn periods will continue to
extend well into the overnight hours with RHs failing to rise above
20-30% in almost all drawn areas of the southern Great Basin and
Southwest. The larger Elevated area was also expanded over much of
the Mojave Desert as well as northern NM and across much of the
Front Range of the central Rocky Mountains. With this expansion,
there are high elevation portions of the central Rocky Mountains
included that are may struggle to meet wind/RH criteria amid less
critically dry fuel conditions. The targeted Elevated to Critical
threat across portions of the Snake River Plain remains on track
from previous forecast issuances.
..Stearns.. 06/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper-level low over the Northwest will advance towards the
Northern Rockies, as a surface low intensifies over the northern
Plains with the trailing cold front moving through the northern
Great Basin. This will bolster surface winds across parts of the
Southwest and central Rockies mid a very dry air mass. Elevated to
critical fire-weather conditions are likely.
...Southern Great Basin and central Rockies...
Beneath the stronger flow loft, gusty surface winds are again likely
ahead of the cold front from southern NV, into UT, parts of western
CO and southwestern WY. Aided by deep mixing and 30-40 kt of
southwest flow aloft, afternoon surface winds of 20-30 mph are
expected. Poor to nonexistent overnight humidity recoveries and
afternoon minimums of 5 to 15 percent will exacerbate critical fuels
across the Southern Rockies and Southwest. The combination of very
dry air, strong winds and receptive fuels will favor several hours
of widespread critical conditions Sunday afternoon.
...ID...
Beneath the upper trough, continued strong southwesterly flow aloft
will bolster surface winds through the Snake River Plains and
southern ID. Gusty surface winds of 20-35 mph and RH of 10-20% will
support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions Sunday. Gusty wind and low humidity may extend farther
eastward into ID and far western WY, but here fuels here have
received recent rainfall and are less receptive.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging hail and wind (some
significant), and perhaps a tornado or two are forecast across the
northern High Plains. More isolated storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts centered over southeast Virginia, with a
brief/weak tornado possible from eastern Oklahoma into western
Arkansas.
...Northern Plains...
A strong shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest and
across MT Sunday, continuing northeastward into SK overnight. The
southern periphery of the stronger midlevel flow will extend across
WY and into the western Dakotas, aiding deep-layer shear. At the
surface, low pressure will deepen across the northern High Plains,
ahead of a cold front which will surge into eastern MT and northern
WY late in the day.
Storms are likely to form over southeast MT and northern WY during
the late afternoon near the higher terrain, and within the surface
trough from western ND to the Black Hills.
Supercells appear likely initially as deep-layer shear and lapse
rates will be favorable. A tornado or two may occur with these
initial supercells over MT/WY/Black Hills area, and, over northern
ND where low-level SRH will be strongest. Locally significant hail
may occur as well.
With time, one or more corridors of severe and possibly significant
wind damage is expected, as storms produce outflow and propagate
northeastward into the Dakotas. Several models indicate a strong
rear-inflow signal with over 50 kt westerlies just off the surface
behind the activity.
...Eastern OK into AR and southwest MO...
A weak midlevel wave will move northeastward across OK and toward
MO, while southerly surface winds generally increase across the
Plains. A broad area of upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will develop
northward over the entire region, with areas of moderate instability
and high PWAT developing. Some increase in diurnal convection is
anticipated, related to the midlevel wave, which may enhance wind
profiles somewhat. Forecast soundings indicate veering winds with
height, and 200-300 m2/s2 SRH may develop late in the day and into
the evening. In addition to heavy rain, any stronger cells that
develop may acquire rotation, with a brief tornado or two possible.
...Southeast VA into far northeast NC...
A shortwave trough will exist over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast,
with 30-40 kt midlevel northwesterlies into eastern VA. A surface
trough will extend southwestward from the parent low over the
Maritimes, into the DelMarVa, southeast VA and northeast NC during
the afternoon. Strong heating will result in steep boundary layer
lapse rates, while sufficient low-level moisture supports marginal
instability. Given the favorable time of day and convergence near
the trough, isolated cells are expected which may produce locally
damaging gusts.
..Jewell.. 06/06/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHWEST...
The northern extent of the Elevated area over WY was expanded
commensurate with the latest forecast guidance showing the hot, dry,
and windy conditions progressing farther northeast today. Very
localized extremely critical conditions will be possible this
afternoon over terrain-favored areas of southwest UT. The certainty,
areal extent, and limited duration preclude the introduction of any
drawn areas with this morning's update. However, portions of this
same area will likely see Elevated conditions exceeding 18 hours of
duration today into tonight. Satellite imagery over much of the
highlighted areas shows fully sunny skies this morning with
scattered low and mid-level clouds over much of the central Rockies.
Surface observations are also showing southwest winds beginning to
exceed 15 mph across portions of UT and WY combined with RHs in the
single digits to mid-teens already this morning. A quick-moving
thunderstorm or two is not out of the question for northern UT
tonight, but the threat doesn't appear widespread or certain enough
to include a drawn risk area. The rest of the forecast remains on
track as previously described.
..Stearns.. 06/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
An intensifying upper trough over the Northwest is forecast to
spread eastward into the Northern Rockies and southern Canada today
and tonight. A lee low is forecast to deepen over the northern Great
Basin and northern MT before moving northward into southern Canada.
Stronger flow aloft will move southeastward, overspreading a dry and
hot air mass over much of the western US. This will promote
widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions atop dry
fuels from the Great Basin to the Southwest. Isolated dry
thunderstorms are also possible as moisture increases across the
central Rockies and High Plains.
...Great Basin and Southwest...
As the upper trough over the Northwest and northern Rockies
intensifies, two belts of stronger mid-level flow will overspread
portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies. This, along with an
enhanced surface pressure gradient from the deepening lee low in
northern MT will bolster surface winds to 20-30 mph from
northeastern NV southward into UT, northern AZ and western CO. In
combination with high temperatures and low RH of 10-20%, widespread
elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected amid a
dry fuelscape.
Locally critical conditions may also extend across northern and
western NV into far southern OR along the lee of the Sierras.
Several hours of gusty surface winds (20-25 mph) and RH below 20%
are expected this afternoon. However, less receptive fuels, owing to
greater rainfall in the past 2 weeks, suggests critical conditions,
while possible, will be more localized.
Weaker flow aloft across southern AZ and the Four Corners will still
promote widespread elevated conditions with 10-20% RH and surface
gusts of 15-25 mph. Potentially enhanced by local terrain, some
potential for brief critical conditions may develop given drying
fuels and increasing burn period duration.
...ID and Northern Rockies...
Ascent from the upper trough will impinge on the western edge of
modest surface moisture moving westward into the higher terrain near
the lee low and surface trough. This ascent and diurnal heating
could support isolated thunderstorm development across eastern ID
and far southwestern MT. Likely high-based, these fast-moving storms
would have limited precipitation efficiency and some potential for
drier strikes. However, forecast coverage is likely to remain sparse
and areas where storms are more likely to develop have fuels that
are less receptive to starts.
...Central High Plains...
As westerly flow aloft overspreads the Rockies, enhanced lee trough
will aide in marginal low-level moisture transport across the
central High Plains and Front Range. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible across parts of northern CO and southern WY and western NE.
Fast storm motions, and high cloud bases suggest these storms are
unlikely to support widespread rainfall. With pockets of drier fuels
present, isolated dry thunderstorms and lightning starts are
possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected this afternoon/evening from the Ohio Valley to the northern
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Large hail and severe wind
gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains late this
afternoon/evening.
...OH Valley into New England through late evening...
A surface cyclone will move eastward across southern QC this
afternoon and into northern New England tonight, in advance of a
midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. An associated
surface cold front will progress southward into the OH Valley and
southeastward to near the southern New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by early Sunday. A convective cluster is
ongoing as of midday in OH to the south of the cold front, and it
appears likely that these storms will be maintained through the
afternoon as surface temperatures continue to warm and MLCAPE
increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Sufficient buoyancy, along
with steepening low-level lapse rates and gradually strengthening
midlevel flow, will result in the potential for downward momentum
transfer and wind damage from eastern OH across PA through the
afternoon (potentially reaching Philadelphia-New York City by this
evening). Otherwise, additional storm development will be possible
later this afternoon along the cold front from the OH Valley into
NY, where a mix of supercells and multicell clusters will be capable
of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a tornado or
two.
...Northern High Plains late this afternoon through late evening...
A midlevel trough will continue eastward from WA/OR to the northern
Rockies, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across southeast
MT. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures will need to
reach ~90 F to weaken convective inhibition and support thunderstorm
development along the stalled front across northeast MT/northwest ND
late this afternoon/evening. Forecast wind profiles support both
multicell clusters and supercells, and steep lapse rates through
most of the column will favor both severe outflow gusts (up to 75
mph) and large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) with a mix of
high-based supercells and multicell clusters.
...TX/OK this afternoon...
Pockets of surface heating from central/northwest TX into southern
OK, near and south of a weak surface low and MCV, will support
additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated
wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main concerns
this afternoon.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/06/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and
evening.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level heights are forecast to rise over the northern and central
High Plains Monday in the wake of a short-wave trough lifting into
central Canada, and ahead of an amplifying, upstream system tracking
from the northern Great Basin into northern Rockies. At the surface,
a frontal system extending from the eastern Dakotas to low pressure
over western KS Monday morning is forecast to weaken through the day
in response to falling pressures across the northern Rockies.
...Central High Plains...
Deepening low pressure over MT and WY in conjunction with a residual
surface low over southwest KS or northwest OK will promote the
westward advection of an increasingly moist air mass into the higher
terrain of eastern CO and southeast WY. That process will occur
beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates with a moderately
unstable environment developing by afternoon. In the absence of
appreciable forcing for ascent, daytime heating and lift along
favored terrain may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm
development by mid to late afternoon. Southwesterly mid-level winds
are forecast to strengthen through the day, yielding sufficient
vertical shear for supercells capable of large hail. There is some
model signal that an isolated hail and wind threat may spread into
western parts of NE and KS Monday evening.
...Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South...
A number of models suggest that thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday
morning across Ozarks or Ozark Plateau region within a zone of warm
advection occurring with the terminus of a nocturnal low-level jet
(LLJ). The LLJ is forecast to weaken through the morning, with
forcing for ascent becoming much more nebulous into afternoon. The
air mass along and south of an expected outflow boundary is forecast
to be quite moist and moderate to strongly unstable, and a few
severe storms appear possible during the afternoon. Vertical shear
will remain weak, which will limit the magnitude of any severe
weather threat. The primary uncertainty is exactly where the outflow
boundary will reside given considerable model variability in
precipitation distribution throughout the day. As such, no
severe-weather probabilities will be included in this forecast.
..Mead.. 06/06/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHWEST...
...Synopsis...
An intensifying upper trough over the Northwest is forecast to
spread eastward into the Northern Rockies and southern Canada today
and tonight. A lee low is forecast to deepen over the northern Great
Basin and northern MT before moving northward into southern Canada.
Stronger flow aloft will move southeastward, overspreading a dry and
hot air mass over much of the western US. This will promote
widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions atop dry
fuels from the Great Basin to the Southwest. Isolated dry
thunderstorms are also possible as moisture increases across the
central Rockies and High Plains.
...Great Basin and Southwest...
As the upper trough over the Northwest and northern Rockies
intensifies, two belts of stronger mid-level flow will overspread
portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies. This, along with an
enhanced surface pressure gradient from the deepening lee low in
northern MT will bolster surface winds to 20-30 mph from
northeastern NV southward into UT, northern AZ and western CO. In
combination with high temperatures and low RH of 10-20%, widespread
elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected amid a
dry fuelscape.
Locally critical conditions may also extend across northern and
western NV into far southern OR along the lee of the Sierras.
Several hours of gusty surface winds (20-25 mph) and RH below 20%
are expected this afternoon. However, less receptive fuels, owing to
greater rainfall in the past 2 weeks, suggests critical conditions,
while possible, will be more localized.
Weaker flow aloft across southern AZ and the Four Corners will still
promote widespread elevated conditions with 10-20% RH and surface
gusts of 15-25 mph. Potentially enhanced by local terrain, some
potential for brief critical conditions may develop given drying
fuels and increasing burn period duration.
...ID and Northern Rockies...
Ascent from the upper trough will impinge on the western edge of
modest surface moisture moving westward into the higher terrain near
the lee low and surface trough. This ascent and diurnal heating
could support isolated thunderstorm development across eastern ID
and far southwestern MT. Likely high-based, these fast-moving storms
would have limited precipitation efficiency and some potential for
drier strikes. However, forecast coverage is likely to remain sparse
and areas where storms are more likely to develop have fuels that
are less receptive to starts.
...Central High Plains...
As westerly flow aloft overspreads the Rockies, enhanced lee trough
will aide in marginal low-level moisture transport across the
central High Plains and Front Range. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible across parts of northern CO and southern WY and western NE.
Fast storm motions, and high cloud bases suggest these storms are
unlikely to support widespread rainfall. With pockets of drier fuels
present, isolated dry thunderstorms and lightning starts are
possible.
..Lyons.. 06/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...
...Synopsis...
The upper-level low over the Northwest will advance towards the
Northern Rockies, as a surface low intensifies over the northern
Plains with the trailing cold front moving through the northern
Great Basin. This will bolster surface winds across parts of the
Southwest and central Rockies mid a very dry air mass. Elevated to
critical fire-weather conditions are likely.
...Southern Great Basin and central Rockies...
Beneath the stronger flow loft, gusty surface winds are again likely
ahead of the cold front from southern NV, into UT, parts of western
CO and southwestern WY. Aided by deep mixing and 30-40 kt of
southwest flow aloft, afternoon surface winds of 20-30 mph are
expected. Poor to nonexistent overnight humidity recoveries and
afternoon minimums of 5 to 15 percent will exacerbate critical fuels
across the Southern Rockies and Southwest. The combination of very
dry air, strong winds and receptive fuels will favor several hours
of widespread critical conditions Sunday afternoon.
...ID...
Beneath the upper trough, continued strong southwesterly flow aloft
will bolster surface winds through the Snake River Plains and
southern ID. Gusty surface winds of 20-35 mph and RH of 10-20% will
support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions Sunday. Gusty wind and low humidity may extend farther
eastward into ID and far western WY, but here fuels here have
received recent rainfall and are less receptive.
..Lyons.. 06/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W LWD TO
25 N LWD TO 30 NNE LWD TO 10 WSW OXV TO 30 N BRL.
..WENDT..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 276
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-087-101-117-135-159-177-179-185-060740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
HENRY JEFFERSON LUCAS
MONROE RINGGOLD VAN BUREN
WAPELLO WAYNE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W LWD TO
25 N LWD TO 30 NNE LWD TO 10 WSW OXV TO 30 N BRL.
..WENDT..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 276
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-087-101-117-135-159-177-179-185-060740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
HENRY JEFFERSON LUCAS
MONROE RINGGOLD VAN BUREN
WAPELLO WAYNE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 276 SEVERE TSTM IA 060250Z - 060800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
950 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern and Southeastern Iowa
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 950 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Supercells should continue to pose a threat for large to
very large hail this evening (up to 2 inches in diameter possible).
A tornado or two may also occur with this activity. A loosely
organized thunderstorm cluster may eventually move across southern
IA overnight and pose some risk for severe/damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest
of Lamoni IA to 55 miles east northeast of Ottumwa IA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 274...WW 275...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Gleason
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe
wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across the
northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally
damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A
brief tornado or two appears possible in eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas.
...Synopsis...
A vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks
within the base of broader-scale troughing from the lee of the
Canadian Rockies into northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning
are forecast to accelerate northeast through the northern High
Plains, ahead of an upstream jet segment moving onto the Pacific
Northwest coast. Elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will
progress through the Northeast, while a more loosely organized
trough progresses through the central and southern Plains through
the Ozarks and mid MS Valley.
At the surface, an area of low pressure and associated pre-frontal
trough over the western Dakotas will be overtaken by a cold front
moving out of the northern Rockies. That frontal system will
continue east into the ND-MN Red River Valley, and southeast into
the central High Plains by Monday morning. Elsewhere, more of a
backdoor cold front will progress south/southwest through the
Northeast into Mid-Atlantic.
...Montana and Wyoming into the Dakotas...
A hot, deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop ahead of
the pre-frontal trough over the western Dakotas Sunday afternoon,
with the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to
an axis of moderate to strong instability. Moderate instability is
expected to extend into eastern MT and northeast WY, owing to
low-level moisture wrapping around the surface trough. Initial storm
development is expected by mid afternoon along the western fringe of
the instability axis across southeast MT into north-central and
northeast WY as lift is enhanced by terrain, the cold front, and
forcing tied to the vorticity maximum and attending jet streaks. A
separate thunderstorm regime is expected to evolve by late afternoon
into evening over the western Dakotas as the cold front merges with
the pre-frontal trough.
The MT/WY storms are expected to mature in a strongly sheared
environment, which will favor supercells capable of large hail.
Initially marginal vertical shear with the western Dakotas storm
regime is expected strengthen through the evening, supporting the
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts as the primary hazards. Some tornado threat may
materialize by mid/late evening across portions of north-central ND
where strengthening low-level shear will coincide with a more moist,
lower-LCL boundary layer. The magnitude of the threat will be
contingent on storm mode at that time, given the tendency for more
linear forcing along the cold front.
... Central Virginia into the Chesapeake Bay Area...
Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to
a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon, ahead of a pre-frontal
wind shift moving into the area from the north. Convergence along
that boundary along with the glancing influence of the mid-level
trough passing to the immediate north are expected to support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
across the discussion area. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures
are expected to limit the potential for large hail; however, the
presence of steep, low-level lapse rates and 30-35 kt of
northwesterly deep-layer shear appear supportive of locally damaging
wind gusts through the afternoon into early evening.
...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas...
Forcing for ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum moving through
the base of broader-scale troughing is expected to contribute to an
increase in thunderstorm coverage early in the day. That scenario
would tend to limit air mass destabilization through the afternoon,
leaving severe-storm potential in question. However, there is a
signal in some guidance that a low-level jet will strengthen during
the afternoon into evening, leading to an increase in low-level
shear. A concurrent risk for a brief tornado or two may materialize,
especially with any storms on the southern or western fringe of the
larger convective footprint. That notion is generally supported by
the 00z HREF mean 0-1 km SRH, which shows values increasing to
100-150 m2/s2 by Sunday evening.
..Mead.. 06/06/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe
wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across the
northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally
damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A
brief tornado or two appears possible in eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas.
...Synopsis...
A vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks
within the base of broader-scale troughing from the lee of the
Canadian Rockies into northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning
are forecast to accelerate northeast through the northern High
Plains, ahead of an upstream jet segment moving onto the Pacific
Northwest coast. Elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will
progress through the Northeast, while a more loosely organized
trough progresses through the central and southern Plains through
the Ozarks and mid MS Valley.
At the surface, an area of low pressure and associated pre-frontal
trough over the western Dakotas will be overtaken by a cold front
moving out of the northern Rockies. That frontal system will
continue east into the ND-MN Red River Valley, and southeast into
the central High Plains by Monday morning. Elsewhere, more of a
backdoor cold front will progress south/southwest through the
Northeast into Mid-Atlantic.
...Montana and Wyoming into the Dakotas...
A hot, deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop ahead of
the pre-frontal trough over the western Dakotas Sunday afternoon,
with the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to
an axis of moderate to strong instability. Moderate instability is
expected to extend into eastern MT and northeast WY, owing to
low-level moisture wrapping around the surface trough. Initial storm
development is expected by mid afternoon along the western fringe of
the instability axis across southeast MT into north-central and
northeast WY as lift is enhanced by terrain, the cold front, and
forcing tied to the vorticity maximum and attending jet streaks. A
separate thunderstorm regime is expected to evolve by late afternoon
into evening over the western Dakotas as the cold front merges with
the pre-frontal trough.
The MT/WY storms are expected to mature in a strongly sheared
environment, which will favor supercells capable of large hail.
Initially marginal vertical shear with the western Dakotas storm
regime is expected strengthen through the evening, supporting the
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts as the primary hazards. Some tornado threat may
materialize by mid/late evening across portions of north-central ND
where strengthening low-level shear will coincide with a more moist,
lower-LCL boundary layer. The magnitude of the threat will be
contingent on storm mode at that time, given the tendency for more
linear forcing along the cold front.
... Central Virginia into the Chesapeake Bay Area...
Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to
a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon, ahead of a pre-frontal
wind shift moving into the area from the north. Convergence along
that boundary along with the glancing influence of the mid-level
trough passing to the immediate north are expected to support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
across the discussion area. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures
are expected to limit the potential for large hail; however, the
presence of steep, low-level lapse rates and 30-35 kt of
northwesterly deep-layer shear appear supportive of locally damaging
wind gusts through the afternoon into early evening.
...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas...
Forcing for ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum moving through
the base of broader-scale troughing is expected to contribute to an
increase in thunderstorm coverage early in the day. That scenario
would tend to limit air mass destabilization through the afternoon,
leaving severe-storm potential in question. However, there is a
signal in some guidance that a low-level jet will strengthen during
the afternoon into evening, leading to an increase in low-level
shear. A concurrent risk for a brief tornado or two may materialize,
especially with any storms on the southern or western fringe of the
larger convective footprint. That notion is generally supported by
the 00z HREF mean 0-1 km SRH, which shows values increasing to
100-150 m2/s2 by Sunday evening.
..Mead.. 06/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop today from parts of the lower Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Large hail and severe wind gusts are
also expected in the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and
hail may also occur in parts of the southern Plains.
...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move eastward into the lower Great Lakes today. A cold front will
advance southeastward into the lower Great Lakes, with surface
dewpoints ahead of the front in the mid to upper 60s F. An axis of
moderate instability appears likely to develop well ahead of the
front by early to mid afternoon. As this happens, convective
initiation will take place near this axis of instability from
northern Indiana eastward into northern Pennsylvania and
northeastward into southern New York. Convective coverage will
gradually expand, as a broken line segment moves southeastward into
the Ohio Valley and toward the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New
England.
RAP forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis over
northern Ohio and southwestern Pennsylvania have 0-6 km shear near
45 knots, which could support supercell development. Supercells will
be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado
threat. During the late afternoon, a transition to more linear
development is expected, which should result in an increased
wind-damage threat.
Further east from central Pennsylvania into southern New England,
forecast soundings at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot
range with 0-3 km lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment will support severe storm development. Although an
isolated supercell will be possible, the most likely mode will be
linear, favoring wind-damage as the primary threat. The potential
for severe gusts will be maximized from south-central Pennsylvania
northeastward into far southern New York. The line segment is
expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts by early
evening.
...Northern High Plains...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern High Plains will
become more southwesterly during the day, as an upper-level trough
moves through the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low will
deepen over the northern High Plains, with a trough located
northeastward into far northeast Montana. As surface temperatures
warm today, moderate instability will develop near the surface
trough. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence, will
result in scattered convective initiation. Multiple storms are
forecast to move northeastward across the northern High Plains
during the late afternoon and early evening.
RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in far northeast
Montana at 00Z have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near
35 knots. Surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are large with low to
mid-level lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This should be
favorable for high-based supercells capable of large hail and severe
wind gusts. The severe threat will likely persist into the early to
mid evening.
...Southern Plains...
A mid-level low will move across west Texas today. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, where
dewpoints will be from the upper 60s into the mid 70s F. This will
result in the development of moderate instability by afternoon. To
the east of the mid-level low, low-level convergence is forecast to
become maximized over parts of west-central Texas and southern
Oklahoma. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop from late afternoon into the evening. The instability
combined with steep low-level lapse rates (exceeding 7 C/km) will
support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop today from parts of the lower Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Large hail and severe wind gusts are
also expected in the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and
hail may also occur in parts of the southern Plains.
...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move eastward into the lower Great Lakes today. A cold front will
advance southeastward into the lower Great Lakes, with surface
dewpoints ahead of the front in the mid to upper 60s F. An axis of
moderate instability appears likely to develop well ahead of the
front by early to mid afternoon. As this happens, convective
initiation will take place near this axis of instability from
northern Indiana eastward into northern Pennsylvania and
northeastward into southern New York. Convective coverage will
gradually expand, as a broken line segment moves southeastward into
the Ohio Valley and toward the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New
England.
RAP forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis over
northern Ohio and southwestern Pennsylvania have 0-6 km shear near
45 knots, which could support supercell development. Supercells will
be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado
threat. During the late afternoon, a transition to more linear
development is expected, which should result in an increased
wind-damage threat.
Further east from central Pennsylvania into southern New England,
forecast soundings at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot
range with 0-3 km lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment will support severe storm development. Although an
isolated supercell will be possible, the most likely mode will be
linear, favoring wind-damage as the primary threat. The potential
for severe gusts will be maximized from south-central Pennsylvania
northeastward into far southern New York. The line segment is
expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts by early
evening.
...Northern High Plains...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern High Plains will
become more southwesterly during the day, as an upper-level trough
moves through the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low will
deepen over the northern High Plains, with a trough located
northeastward into far northeast Montana. As surface temperatures
warm today, moderate instability will develop near the surface
trough. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence, will
result in scattered convective initiation. Multiple storms are
forecast to move northeastward across the northern High Plains
during the late afternoon and early evening.
RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in far northeast
Montana at 00Z have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near
35 knots. Surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are large with low to
mid-level lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This should be
favorable for high-based supercells capable of large hail and severe
wind gusts. The severe threat will likely persist into the early to
mid evening.
...Southern Plains...
A mid-level low will move across west Texas today. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, where
dewpoints will be from the upper 60s into the mid 70s F. This will
result in the development of moderate instability by afternoon. To
the east of the mid-level low, low-level convergence is forecast to
become maximized over parts of west-central Texas and southern
Oklahoma. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop from late afternoon into the evening. The instability
combined with steep low-level lapse rates (exceeding 7 C/km) will
support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/06/2026
Read more
MD 0996 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276... FOR SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Areas affected...southern Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 276...
Valid 060433Z - 060600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 276
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe storms continue across WW276. A stronger cluster
moving in from the west should transition the threat to mostly
damaging winds. Some hail and a brief tornado remain possible.
DISCUSSION...Over the last several hours, severe storms, including a
few supercells have organized across portions of southern IA. These
storms have been largely stationary, tied to stronger ascent near a
diffuse surface boundary. The environment remains quite unstable and
sufficiently sheared for supercell structures. This will support a
continued risk for hail and isolated damaging gusts.
A larger convective cluster is moving eastward out of WW275. These
storms have a history of producing severe wind gusts, and will
interact with the ongoing storms over IA in the next few hours.
Strong outflow from this forward propagating cluster will likely
favor a damaging wind risk as convection consolidates and the cold
pool continues to strengthen. A brief tornado also remains possible
as strong outflow interacts with any of the more persistent
supercells. Thus, the severe risk will continue for much of WW276
this evening and early overnight period.
..Lyons.. 06/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 41449513 41799245 41669151 41239126 40919148 40709189
40659269 40629370 40519464 40529498 40549522 40619551
41449513
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 275
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CNK
TO 25 ESE GRI TO 5 NNW OLU.
..LYONS..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...EAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 275
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-155-060440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
KSC013-043-117-131-157-201-060440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DONIPHAN MARSHALL
NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON
MOC003-005-087-147-060440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON HOLT
NODAWAY
Read more
WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 275
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CNK
TO 25 ESE GRI TO 5 NNW OLU.
..LYONS..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...EAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 275
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-155-060440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
KSC013-043-117-131-157-201-060440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DONIPHAN MARSHALL
NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON
MOC003-005-087-147-060440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON HOLT
NODAWAY
Read more
WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 275
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CNK
TO 25 ESE GRI TO 5 NNW OLU.
..LYONS..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...EAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 275
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-155-060440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
KSC013-043-117-131-157-201-060440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DONIPHAN MARSHALL
NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON
MOC003-005-087-147-060440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON HOLT
NODAWAY
Read more
WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LYONS..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 276
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-029-039-051-053-087-095-099-101-103-107-117-121-
123-125-135-157-159-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-060440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
CASS CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR HENRY IOWA
JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KEOKUK LUCAS MADISON
MAHASKA MARION MONROE
POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAYLOR
UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
