Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains, with widely scattered strong wind gusts or marginal hail over parts of the central High Plains. ...Northern Plains... Slight cooling aloft will occur over ND into northern MN as a shortwave trough slowly moves east across the area. Midlevel winds of 35-45 kt are forecast, resulting in deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt as southerly winds of 30 kt develop at 850 mb. A cold front will move into eastern ND and central SD during the afternoon, providing a focus for storm development. MUCAPE may average around 1500 J/kg with low 60s F dewpoints, though models disagree on this. Some forecast soundings appear favorable for a supercells with good mid to high level flow and increasing evening SRH, especially across the Red River Valley and into northwest MN. ...Central Plains and into NM... A moist and unstable air mass will remain over much of the central and southern Plains as well as into NM. Shear will be weak, but the air mass will be uncapped over this entire area as temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool. As such, scattered areas of thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon along the length of the High Plains, with localized wind or hail. Moisture will push westward across NM as well, again with isolated strong gusts or small hail. ..Jewell.. 06/01/2026 Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S DYR TO 25 ESE TUP TO 40 NE CBM TO 30 N BHM TO 20 SSW CHA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 ..THORNTON..06/01/26 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC009-015-019-027-029-055-057-073-075-107-111-115-117-121-125- 127-012040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE ETOWAH FAYETTE JEFFERSON LAMAR PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER MSC009-013-017-025-027-033-043-071-081-087-093-095-103-105-107- 115-119-135-137-139-143-145-155-161-012040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW CLAY COAHOMA DESOTO GRENADA LAFAYETTE LEE Read more

WW 261 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 011625Z - 020000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northern Mississippi Southwestern Tennessee * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A very warm, moist, and unstable airmass is in place from the Mid-South into the Southeast States. Thunderstorm development is ongoing along an outflow boundary in southwest/southern Middle TN, with additional development ahead of this outflow possible as well. Very strong buoyancy will support robust updraft/downdraft cycles capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail throughout the afternoon and into the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Oxford MS to 30 miles northeast of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0263 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0263 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 263 SEVERE TSTM AR MO 011915Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Arkansas Far Southern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to increase this afternoon into this evening from southern Missouri into central Arkansas. A very warm, moist, and unstable airmass is in place, supporting the potential for robust updrafts capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Fayetteville AR to 95 miles southeast of Batesville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0262 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 262 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 011850Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across the higher terrain of the central Rockies, with movement downstream into the foothill expected shortly. Further eastward development into more of the central High Plains is anticipated over the next several hours. Environmental conditions favor supercells capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Some isolated very large hail and significant severe gusts are also possible. A low-probability tornado risk exists across northeast Colorado as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Torrington WY to 50 miles south of Limon CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0935 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0935 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Areas affected...south-central Missouri...northern/central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 011731Z - 011930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely over the next 1-2 hours. Hazards will include damaging winds and hail. DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary continues to sag south and westward across south-central MO into northern AR this afternoon. Cumulus development along this boundary has become increasingly agitated over the last hour. Thunderstorm development is likely over the next 1-2 hours near this boundary. The environment ahead of this boundary is very hot and unstable with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Low-level lapse rates have been steepening, with around 7-7.5 C/km analyzed in surface objective analysis. Though deep layer flow is generally weak, this environment will favor multi-cell clusters with strong to severe winds and potential for small to marginally severe hail. A watch will likely be needed soon. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37329295 37309372 36779383 35929371 35269286 34969238 34599087 35079015 35279015 35519024 35679033 35999075 36579155 37189249 37329295 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST CO...NE PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WY...FAR SOUTHWEST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 0936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Areas affected...Northeast CO...NE Panhandle...southeast WY...far southwest SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011751Z - 012015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms are initially expected along the higher terrain before spreading eastward into this evening. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns. One or more watches are likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus is evolving along the higher terrain from CO into WY this afternoon. Continued diurnal heating amid terrain circulations should erode remaining inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorm development in the 19-21Z time frame. Steepening deep-layer lapse rates (per earlier DEN ACARS sounding) and around 40 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly straight mid/upper-level hodograph) will favor large to very large hail with initially discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures. While uncertain, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out where terrain-induced low-level vorticity is enhanced in eastern CO. With time, this activity will track eastward into the foothills and eventually the Plains, where moist upslope flow will promote a continued risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. Localized upscale growth into eastward-moving clusters will favor an increasing risk of severe gusts into this evening. One or more watches will be needed this afternoon. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38760481 39020525 39540544 40540541 41170535 42000534 42880521 43330481 43560388 43420306 42840253 41970229 40750214 39980232 39370275 39020337 38740419 38760481 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida. ...Northern Plains... A slow-moving upper low will exist from northern MT into southern SK, with a belt of 30-40 kt southwesterlies at 500 mb from eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Meanwhile, a surface trough and weak front will develop from central WY into western ND by 00Z. Cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough combined with daytime heating and persistent southerly winds/moisture advection will yield moderate instability ahead of the front. Effective shear in excess of 40 kt and steep lapse rates aloft will support cells capable of damaging hail. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong, but some increase in the low-level jet will occur after 00Z and may support MCS potential during the evening with areas of damaging winds. A couple tornadoes may occur as well, perhaps over eastern WY with the initial activity, or into ND where temp/dewpoint depressions may be less. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Although a weak surface ridge will exist over the region, temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as NM and OK. Easterly surface winds will maintain a moist air mass into KS/CO, with southeasterly winds into NM. Scattered storms are likely after 21Z along the Front Range and extending south across central and eastern NM, and some of this activity will persist into southwest NE, western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles late. Locally damaging gusts appear most likely as shear will remain weak. Isolated cells may also develop near the dryline during the afternoon from southwest KS into western OK, with localize wind and hail potential. ...Far southern GA and AL into northern FL... An upper trough will dive southeastward across the Mid Atlantic and into the Southeast with a cold front pushing south across GA and into AL during the day and into northern FL late. A moist air mass will exist ahead of the front, with MUCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg. Storms will develop along the front as the air mass heats, with increasing storm coverage. Deep-layer shear may be sufficient for a few embedded cells, with both wind and marginal hail potential as they move southeastward from southern GA into northern FL including the Jacksonville area. Additional storms are likely over the eastern FL Peninsula where westerly surface winds will enhance convergence, with strong downbursts and perhaps marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 06/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida. ...Northern Plains... A slow-moving upper low will exist from northern MT into southern SK, with a belt of 30-40 kt southwesterlies at 500 mb from eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Meanwhile, a surface trough and weak front will develop from central WY into western ND by 00Z. Cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough combined with daytime heating and persistent southerly winds/moisture advection will yield moderate instability ahead of the front. Effective shear in excess of 40 kt and steep lapse rates aloft will support cells capable of damaging hail. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong, but some increase in the low-level jet will occur after 00Z and may support MCS potential during the evening with areas of damaging winds. A couple tornadoes may occur as well, perhaps over eastern WY with the initial activity, or into ND where temp/dewpoint depressions may be less. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Although a weak surface ridge will exist over the region, temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as NM and OK. Easterly surface winds will maintain a moist air mass into KS/CO, with southeasterly winds into NM. Scattered storms are likely after 21Z along the Front Range and extending south across central and eastern NM, and some of this activity will persist into southwest NE, western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles late. Locally damaging gusts appear most likely as shear will remain weak. Isolated cells may also develop near the dryline during the afternoon from southwest KS into western OK, with localize wind and hail potential. ...Far southern GA and AL into northern FL... An upper trough will dive southeastward across the Mid Atlantic and into the Southeast with a cold front pushing south across GA and into AL during the day and into northern FL late. A moist air mass will exist ahead of the front, with MUCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg. Storms will develop along the front as the air mass heats, with increasing storm coverage. Deep-layer shear may be sufficient for a few embedded cells, with both wind and marginal hail potential as they move southeastward from southern GA into northern FL including the Jacksonville area. Additional storms are likely over the eastern FL Peninsula where westerly surface winds will enhance convergence, with strong downbursts and perhaps marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 06/01/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations continue to show a very dry air mass across eastern AZ to central NM where fuels have been slowly curing. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the central Rockies, and will promote weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains. Consequently, flow across the Southwest/southern Rockies will remain fairly weak again today with only localized areas where winds will exceed 15 mph (most likely in terrain-prone regions of northern NM). As such, the potential for widespread fire weather concerns will remain limited. Similarly, anomalously dry conditions will continue across the Great Lakes region for today, but building surface high pressure will modulate wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations continue to show a very dry air mass across eastern AZ to central NM where fuels have been slowly curing. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the central Rockies, and will promote weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains. Consequently, flow across the Southwest/southern Rockies will remain fairly weak again today with only localized areas where winds will exceed 15 mph (most likely in terrain-prone regions of northern NM). As such, the potential for widespread fire weather concerns will remain limited. Similarly, anomalously dry conditions will continue across the Great Lakes region for today, but building surface high pressure will modulate wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast. ...Mid-South into the Southeast... An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN. Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue for the next hour or two, before building instability along the western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely remain transient. Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail. The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the evening before weakening. ...High Plains... Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater low-level moisture. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along the dryline in TX. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 06/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast. ...Mid-South into the Southeast... An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN. Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue for the next hour or two, before building instability along the western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely remain transient. Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail. The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the evening before weakening. ...High Plains... Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater low-level moisture. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along the dryline in TX. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 06/01/2026 Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0261 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 1 14:33:01 UTC 2026.

MD 0934 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0934 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Areas affected...western/middle Tennessee...northern Mississippi...northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 011430Z - 011630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind risk to increase through the late morning/early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues to move south and east into western Tennessee, with occasional taller echo tops and lightning activity steadily increasing over the last hour. To the south, a hot and very unstable air mass is in place with temperatures in the low to mid 80s across southern TN into northern MS. Though flow is generally weak, forecast soundings indicate steepening low-level lapse rates are expected across much of the region. As the storms continue into the better air mass to the south, will support potential for increasing damaging wind threat downstream through the afternoon. A watch will likely be needed soon. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 34528993 34829004 35039006 35249000 35708931 35968857 35938775 35738725 35438687 34698651 34318651 34038708 33958809 33958873 33998908 34208957 34528993 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 1 13:59:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0933 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI....SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0933 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Missouri....southern Illinois and adjacent southwestern Indiana...western Kentucky and adjacent northwestern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011101Z - 011330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development probably will be maintained southeastward across areas near and northeast of the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence through 8-10 AM CDT, but with more limited potential for severe wind and hail. While a new watch is not currently anticipated in the near term, trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development persists with a bit further upscale growth. It has not yet become particularly organized, but a meso beta scale convective vortex may be developing near/west-northwest of St. Louis. Coupled with continuing broad lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, this may maintain southeastward development of convection across the lower Ohio Valley, near and northeast of its confluence with the Mississippi River, through 14-15Z. As this occurs, it does appear that moist inflow on its western flank will become at least a bit more stable. Furthermore, downstream of convection, the boundary layer is, at least initially, a bit cooler/drier and more stable across southeastern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley, which seems likely to limit the strength of associated surface gusts in descending convective outflow. ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX... LAT...LON 38279027 38878986 38278813 37158697 36168872 36818983 37869136 38279027 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more