WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734
..SQUITIERI..07/25/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 514
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-007-009-027-031-033-037-043-045-057-059-065-067-069-087-
095-097-103-107-111-260040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN BROADWATER CARBON
FERGUS GALLATIN GARFIELD
GOLDEN VALLEY JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN
MADISON MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL
PARK PETROLEUM ROSEBUD
STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE
WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 1732 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of central Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 252141Z - 252345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Multiple severe gusts may occur with embedded downbursts
this afternoon and evening. A couple of gusts could exceed 75 mph.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of multicells and pulse-cellular storms have
gradually congealed into a loosely organized MCS, which is sagging
south-southwestward off of the higher terrain. As the MCS and its
cold pool propagates toward the lower terrain, it will overspread a
hot and deeply mixed boundary layer. Surface temperatures over 110
F, amid 50s F dewpoints, yields 1500-2000 J/kg DCAPE amid 50-60 F
surface T/Td spreads, suggesting that ample evaporative cooling
potential exists for embedded downbursts to produce potential
several severe gusts. Given the magnitude of evaporative cooling
potential present, 75+ mph gusts may occur. One or more haboobs may
develop with this storm cluster and produce low-visibility
conditions as well.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 34811251 34331090 33831000 33210968 32881000 32711051
32561099 32731162 33021217 33281259 33551275 33791281
34811251
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue to impinge of the Pacific
Northwest with the main upper low/trough remaining offshore.
However, mid-level shortwave troughs will occasionally rotate
through the southwest flow aloft. An upper high will reside over the
southern High Plains/vicinity before slowly shifting back to the
west with upper-level ridging forecast to build over much of the
West late in the outlook period. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms
remain likely across the Four Corners region, but a slight drying
trend is possible.
...Northwestern US...
Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected on Day 3/Monday
across portions of northwestern US. If stronger flow aloft remains
over enough of this region and deeper mixing becomes more likely
across a broader area, an expansion of 40% probabilities will be
warranted. Somewhat weaker upper-level flow beyond Day 3/Monday and
overall forecast uncertainty regarding the interplay of the
upper-level troughing in the Pacific Northwest/vicinity and the
upper-level ridge over the Plains and much of the Intermountain West
has precluded additional critical probabilities through Day
6/Thursday. Extended guidance and cluster analysis exhibits the
potential for the offshore troughing to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest, once again bringing dry and breezy conditions to
the region next weekend. Critical probabilities will be withheld
until predictability increases, but may be needed in future outlook
cycles as the upper pattern is better resolved.
...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely to develop across
portions of the southern High Plains through the workweek. Recent
fuel intel implies the environment is still quite mixed, with some
localized areas more receptive than others. Aforementioned
meteorological conditions for several consecutive days will likely
contribute to further drying the fuelscape; trends will be monitored
closely for the inclusion of probabilities in future outlooks.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue to impinge of the Pacific
Northwest with the main upper low/trough remaining offshore.
However, mid-level shortwave troughs will occasionally rotate
through the southwest flow aloft. An upper high will reside over the
southern High Plains/vicinity before slowly shifting back to the
west with upper-level ridging forecast to build over much of the
West late in the outlook period. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms
remain likely across the Four Corners region, but a slight drying
trend is possible.
...Northwestern US...
Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected on Day 3/Monday
across portions of northwestern US. If stronger flow aloft remains
over enough of this region and deeper mixing becomes more likely
across a broader area, an expansion of 40% probabilities will be
warranted. Somewhat weaker upper-level flow beyond Day 3/Monday and
overall forecast uncertainty regarding the interplay of the
upper-level troughing in the Pacific Northwest/vicinity and the
upper-level ridge over the Plains and much of the Intermountain West
has precluded additional critical probabilities through Day
6/Thursday. Extended guidance and cluster analysis exhibits the
potential for the offshore troughing to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest, once again bringing dry and breezy conditions to
the region next weekend. Critical probabilities will be withheld
until predictability increases, but may be needed in future outlook
cycles as the upper pattern is better resolved.
...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely to develop across
portions of the southern High Plains through the workweek. Recent
fuel intel implies the environment is still quite mixed, with some
localized areas more receptive than others. Aforementioned
meteorological conditions for several consecutive days will likely
contribute to further drying the fuelscape; trends will be monitored
closely for the inclusion of probabilities in future outlooks.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue to impinge of the Pacific
Northwest with the main upper low/trough remaining offshore.
However, mid-level shortwave troughs will occasionally rotate
through the southwest flow aloft. An upper high will reside over the
southern High Plains/vicinity before slowly shifting back to the
west with upper-level ridging forecast to build over much of the
West late in the outlook period. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms
remain likely across the Four Corners region, but a slight drying
trend is possible.
...Northwestern US...
Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected on Day 3/Monday
across portions of northwestern US. If stronger flow aloft remains
over enough of this region and deeper mixing becomes more likely
across a broader area, an expansion of 40% probabilities will be
warranted. Somewhat weaker upper-level flow beyond Day 3/Monday and
overall forecast uncertainty regarding the interplay of the
upper-level troughing in the Pacific Northwest/vicinity and the
upper-level ridge over the Plains and much of the Intermountain West
has precluded additional critical probabilities through Day
6/Thursday. Extended guidance and cluster analysis exhibits the
potential for the offshore troughing to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest, once again bringing dry and breezy conditions to
the region next weekend. Critical probabilities will be withheld
until predictability increases, but may be needed in future outlook
cycles as the upper pattern is better resolved.
...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely to develop across
portions of the southern High Plains through the workweek. Recent
fuel intel implies the environment is still quite mixed, with some
localized areas more receptive than others. Aforementioned
meteorological conditions for several consecutive days will likely
contribute to further drying the fuelscape; trends will be monitored
closely for the inclusion of probabilities in future outlooks.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue to impinge of the Pacific
Northwest with the main upper low/trough remaining offshore.
However, mid-level shortwave troughs will occasionally rotate
through the southwest flow aloft. An upper high will reside over the
southern High Plains/vicinity before slowly shifting back to the
west with upper-level ridging forecast to build over much of the
West late in the outlook period. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms
remain likely across the Four Corners region, but a slight drying
trend is possible.
...Northwestern US...
Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected on Day 3/Monday
across portions of northwestern US. If stronger flow aloft remains
over enough of this region and deeper mixing becomes more likely
across a broader area, an expansion of 40% probabilities will be
warranted. Somewhat weaker upper-level flow beyond Day 3/Monday and
overall forecast uncertainty regarding the interplay of the
upper-level troughing in the Pacific Northwest/vicinity and the
upper-level ridge over the Plains and much of the Intermountain West
has precluded additional critical probabilities through Day
6/Thursday. Extended guidance and cluster analysis exhibits the
potential for the offshore troughing to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest, once again bringing dry and breezy conditions to
the region next weekend. Critical probabilities will be withheld
until predictability increases, but may be needed in future outlook
cycles as the upper pattern is better resolved.
...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely to develop across
portions of the southern High Plains through the workweek. Recent
fuel intel implies the environment is still quite mixed, with some
localized areas more receptive than others. Aforementioned
meteorological conditions for several consecutive days will likely
contribute to further drying the fuelscape; trends will be monitored
closely for the inclusion of probabilities in future outlooks.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
WW 514 SEVERE TSTM MT 252050Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern into Central and Eastern Montana
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this
afternoon and move east across the Watch area through the evening.
The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of a risk for mainly
severe gusts 60 to 80 mph. A transition from mainly cells to a
small thunderstorm cluster will probably occur during the evening.
A localized threat for marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger thunderstorm cores this afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest
of Bozeman MT to 130 miles east northeast of Billings MT. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Smith
Read more
WW 513 SEVERE TSTM SD 252035Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this afternoon and
become severe with an initial threat for isolated large hail and
severe gusts. As additional storms form and cold pools coalesce, a
linear cluster of severe thunderstorms is expected to organize in
central and eastern South Dakota by the early evening. A
severe-wind squall line with widespread severe gusts is forecast and
peak gusts 85 to 100 mph are likely.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Philip SD to 20 miles southeast of Brookings SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28040.
...Smith
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SOUTHWESTER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA...
CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe gusts are possible across South Dakota late this
afternoon and into portions of southwestern Minnesota and northwest
Iowa through the evening.
...20 Update Northern Plains/Midwest...
Confidence continues to increase in widespread severe gusts
developing across parts of central and eastern SD late this
afternoon and into the evening. Very hot surface temperatures
(100-110F) are supporting very steep-low and mid-level lapse rates
of 8-9 C/km over western SD. Initial storms developing now with
temperature-dew point spreads of 40-50 F will favor efficient
outflow generation and an increasing potential for severe gusts as
convection develops and intensifies this afternoon.
The primary severe concern across the northern Plains and Midwest
remains the potential for widespread severe wind gusts with one or
more organized convective clusters. A CIG-2 wind area was added for
the potential for some peak gusts in the 80-100 mph range. Some
recent CAM guidance has trended toward more clustering and a compact
bowing cluster across central and eastern SD late this afternoon and
evening. A brief mesovortex tornado or two may also occur if a
bowing cluster can develop. However, weaker overall synoptic forcing
suggests lower confidence in how widespread the most intense storms
will be. See MCD#1729 for short-term information.
Downstream, wind probabilities and CIG-1 have been expanded along a
surface wind shift/buoyancy gradient into parts of northeast NE, IA
and southern MN. Recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged runs continue to show
a strong cluster moving east and then southeastward this evening and
into the overnight hours. Strong to severe gusts will remain
possible with these storms given the large buoyancy.
Farther north across MN, isolated storms, including supercell
structures could support isolated hail or damaging gusts this
evening.
...MT...
Scattered to widespread high-based storms remain likely this
afternoon and evening over central and southern MT. Steep-lapse
rates in the lowest 3-5 km will support a risk for severe gusts.
Some clustering may occur as storms spread eastward into this
evening. No changes were made to the outlook, see the prior
discussion.
..Lyons.. 07/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/
...SD into adjacent parts of IA/MN...
A prominent upper ridge centered over the central/southern Rockies
will feature the southern periphery of appreciably strong mid to
high-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest across the
northern High Plains and into the north-central states. Late
morning surface analysis shows very hot temperatures ensuing across
western NE into the western half of SD with richer moisture (surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F) located over the eastern half
of NE/SD. Visible-satellite imagery shows some mid to high clouds
across northern WY moving towards the Black Hills. This patch of
clouds appears associated with a weak disturbance forecast to move
into western SD later this afternoon.
Downstream across SD, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates developing as temperatures rise into the 100s F.
Expecting initially isolated to widely scattered storms to develop
near the Black Hills, as convective temperatures are breached.
Models show the gradual development of a cluster moving east across
SD early this evening. Have increased severe-wind probabilities to
account for observational and model-based trends towards an MCS
capable of peak gusts in the 75-90 mph range. This activity will
probably slowly weaken towards the MN/IA/SD border but perhaps
continue into early overnight with a wind threat.
...MT...
Isolated to scattered storms will likely form near the higher
terrain of southern MT later this afternoon with a gradual increase
in storm coverage as this moves east during the early evening. A
hot and well-mixed boundary layer will support severe gusts with the
stronger cores and associated outflow. There is some indication
this activity will cluster and potentially reach parts of
eastern/southeast MT by the late evening.
...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...
Conditional severe potential exists across parts of the Upper
Midwest spanning Minnesota to Upper Michigan into Wisconsin. Models
continue to show low storm chances as mid-level heights rise through
the late evening. Nonetheless, appreciable heating of a seasonably
moist boundary layer will result in strong potential buoyancy later
today into tonight. Elongated hodographs will support organized
storms capable of a wind/hail threat. Given a muted diurnal storm
signal in models, the greater chance for isolated storms appears to
be associated with warm advection activity late tonight.
...Northeast NV/northern UT/eastern ID...
Storm development is expected during the afternoon across parts of
northeast Nevada, along the western periphery of the upper ridge.
These storms will spread into adjacent parts of southeast Idaho and
northwest Utah with time. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the
stronger downdrafts.
...South-central/southeast AZ...
High-based convection is again expected across southeast Arizona
during the afternoon, with initial downburst potential. A modest
enhancement to easterly flow along the southern periphery of the
upper ridge may allow for localized strong to severe wind gusts to
spread westward into parts of south-central Arizona, before
convection weakens tonight.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SOUTHWESTER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA...
CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe gusts are possible across South Dakota late this
afternoon and into portions of southwestern Minnesota and northwest
Iowa through the evening.
...20 Update Northern Plains/Midwest...
Confidence continues to increase in widespread severe gusts
developing across parts of central and eastern SD late this
afternoon and into the evening. Very hot surface temperatures
(100-110F) are supporting very steep-low and mid-level lapse rates
of 8-9 C/km over western SD. Initial storms developing now with
temperature-dew point spreads of 40-50 F will favor efficient
outflow generation and an increasing potential for severe gusts as
convection develops and intensifies this afternoon.
The primary severe concern across the northern Plains and Midwest
remains the potential for widespread severe wind gusts with one or
more organized convective clusters. A CIG-2 wind area was added for
the potential for some peak gusts in the 80-100 mph range. Some
recent CAM guidance has trended toward more clustering and a compact
bowing cluster across central and eastern SD late this afternoon and
evening. A brief mesovortex tornado or two may also occur if a
bowing cluster can develop. However, weaker overall synoptic forcing
suggests lower confidence in how widespread the most intense storms
will be. See MCD#1729 for short-term information.
Downstream, wind probabilities and CIG-1 have been expanded along a
surface wind shift/buoyancy gradient into parts of northeast NE, IA
and southern MN. Recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged runs continue to show
a strong cluster moving east and then southeastward this evening and
into the overnight hours. Strong to severe gusts will remain
possible with these storms given the large buoyancy.
Farther north across MN, isolated storms, including supercell
structures could support isolated hail or damaging gusts this
evening.
...MT...
Scattered to widespread high-based storms remain likely this
afternoon and evening over central and southern MT. Steep-lapse
rates in the lowest 3-5 km will support a risk for severe gusts.
Some clustering may occur as storms spread eastward into this
evening. No changes were made to the outlook, see the prior
discussion.
..Lyons.. 07/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/
...SD into adjacent parts of IA/MN...
A prominent upper ridge centered over the central/southern Rockies
will feature the southern periphery of appreciably strong mid to
high-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest across the
northern High Plains and into the north-central states. Late
morning surface analysis shows very hot temperatures ensuing across
western NE into the western half of SD with richer moisture (surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F) located over the eastern half
of NE/SD. Visible-satellite imagery shows some mid to high clouds
across northern WY moving towards the Black Hills. This patch of
clouds appears associated with a weak disturbance forecast to move
into western SD later this afternoon.
Downstream across SD, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates developing as temperatures rise into the 100s F.
Expecting initially isolated to widely scattered storms to develop
near the Black Hills, as convective temperatures are breached.
Models show the gradual development of a cluster moving east across
SD early this evening. Have increased severe-wind probabilities to
account for observational and model-based trends towards an MCS
capable of peak gusts in the 75-90 mph range. This activity will
probably slowly weaken towards the MN/IA/SD border but perhaps
continue into early overnight with a wind threat.
...MT...
Isolated to scattered storms will likely form near the higher
terrain of southern MT later this afternoon with a gradual increase
in storm coverage as this moves east during the early evening. A
hot and well-mixed boundary layer will support severe gusts with the
stronger cores and associated outflow. There is some indication
this activity will cluster and potentially reach parts of
eastern/southeast MT by the late evening.
...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...
Conditional severe potential exists across parts of the Upper
Midwest spanning Minnesota to Upper Michigan into Wisconsin. Models
continue to show low storm chances as mid-level heights rise through
the late evening. Nonetheless, appreciable heating of a seasonably
moist boundary layer will result in strong potential buoyancy later
today into tonight. Elongated hodographs will support organized
storms capable of a wind/hail threat. Given a muted diurnal storm
signal in models, the greater chance for isolated storms appears to
be associated with warm advection activity late tonight.
...Northeast NV/northern UT/eastern ID...
Storm development is expected during the afternoon across parts of
northeast Nevada, along the western periphery of the upper ridge.
These storms will spread into adjacent parts of southeast Idaho and
northwest Utah with time. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the
stronger downdrafts.
...South-central/southeast AZ...
High-based convection is again expected across southeast Arizona
during the afternoon, with initial downburst potential. A modest
enhancement to easterly flow along the southern periphery of the
upper ridge may allow for localized strong to severe wind gusts to
spread westward into parts of south-central Arizona, before
convection weakens tonight.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SOUTHWESTER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA...
CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe gusts are possible across South Dakota late this
afternoon and into portions of southwestern Minnesota and northwest
Iowa through the evening.
...20 Update Northern Plains/Midwest...
Confidence continues to increase in widespread severe gusts
developing across parts of central and eastern SD late this
afternoon and into the evening. Very hot surface temperatures
(100-110F) are supporting very steep-low and mid-level lapse rates
of 8-9 C/km over western SD. Initial storms developing now with
temperature-dew point spreads of 40-50 F will favor efficient
outflow generation and an increasing potential for severe gusts as
convection develops and intensifies this afternoon.
The primary severe concern across the northern Plains and Midwest
remains the potential for widespread severe wind gusts with one or
more organized convective clusters. A CIG-2 wind area was added for
the potential for some peak gusts in the 80-100 mph range. Some
recent CAM guidance has trended toward more clustering and a compact
bowing cluster across central and eastern SD late this afternoon and
evening. A brief mesovortex tornado or two may also occur if a
bowing cluster can develop. However, weaker overall synoptic forcing
suggests lower confidence in how widespread the most intense storms
will be. See MCD#1729 for short-term information.
Downstream, wind probabilities and CIG-1 have been expanded along a
surface wind shift/buoyancy gradient into parts of northeast NE, IA
and southern MN. Recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged runs continue to show
a strong cluster moving east and then southeastward this evening and
into the overnight hours. Strong to severe gusts will remain
possible with these storms given the large buoyancy.
Farther north across MN, isolated storms, including supercell
structures could support isolated hail or damaging gusts this
evening.
...MT...
Scattered to widespread high-based storms remain likely this
afternoon and evening over central and southern MT. Steep-lapse
rates in the lowest 3-5 km will support a risk for severe gusts.
Some clustering may occur as storms spread eastward into this
evening. No changes were made to the outlook, see the prior
discussion.
..Lyons.. 07/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/
...SD into adjacent parts of IA/MN...
A prominent upper ridge centered over the central/southern Rockies
will feature the southern periphery of appreciably strong mid to
high-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest across the
northern High Plains and into the north-central states. Late
morning surface analysis shows very hot temperatures ensuing across
western NE into the western half of SD with richer moisture (surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F) located over the eastern half
of NE/SD. Visible-satellite imagery shows some mid to high clouds
across northern WY moving towards the Black Hills. This patch of
clouds appears associated with a weak disturbance forecast to move
into western SD later this afternoon.
Downstream across SD, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates developing as temperatures rise into the 100s F.
Expecting initially isolated to widely scattered storms to develop
near the Black Hills, as convective temperatures are breached.
Models show the gradual development of a cluster moving east across
SD early this evening. Have increased severe-wind probabilities to
account for observational and model-based trends towards an MCS
capable of peak gusts in the 75-90 mph range. This activity will
probably slowly weaken towards the MN/IA/SD border but perhaps
continue into early overnight with a wind threat.
...MT...
Isolated to scattered storms will likely form near the higher
terrain of southern MT later this afternoon with a gradual increase
in storm coverage as this moves east during the early evening. A
hot and well-mixed boundary layer will support severe gusts with the
stronger cores and associated outflow. There is some indication
this activity will cluster and potentially reach parts of
eastern/southeast MT by the late evening.
...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...
Conditional severe potential exists across parts of the Upper
Midwest spanning Minnesota to Upper Michigan into Wisconsin. Models
continue to show low storm chances as mid-level heights rise through
the late evening. Nonetheless, appreciable heating of a seasonably
moist boundary layer will result in strong potential buoyancy later
today into tonight. Elongated hodographs will support organized
storms capable of a wind/hail threat. Given a muted diurnal storm
signal in models, the greater chance for isolated storms appears to
be associated with warm advection activity late tonight.
...Northeast NV/northern UT/eastern ID...
Storm development is expected during the afternoon across parts of
northeast Nevada, along the western periphery of the upper ridge.
These storms will spread into adjacent parts of southeast Idaho and
northwest Utah with time. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the
stronger downdrafts.
...South-central/southeast AZ...
High-based convection is again expected across southeast Arizona
during the afternoon, with initial downburst potential. A modest
enhancement to easterly flow along the southern periphery of the
upper ridge may allow for localized strong to severe wind gusts to
spread westward into parts of south-central Arizona, before
convection weakens tonight.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible
across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday
night.
...Great Lakes to Ohio Valley...
A large upper ridge will hold over the Rockies and into the Plains,
with a moderate northwest flow regime from the Upper MS Valley and
Great Lakes into the OH Valley/Appalachians. While embedded
perturbations will exist during the day, the most prominent height
falls will occur Monday night over the Great Lakes.
At the surface, low pressure will develop late in the day from WI
into Lower MI, with a cold front pushing south overnight trailing
southwestward into northern IL. A moist and unstable air mass will
redevelop and push eastward across the region late in the day and
overnight as 850 mb winds near 40 kt develop out of the west.
Some ongoing activity may be present from Upper MI into WI, and this
could either persist or strengthen during the day as the system
develops southeastward. Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt along with the
strong instability could support a southward-moving MCS capable of
damaging winds, perhaps with significant gusts. Will maintain
current Slight Risk due to uncertainty, but higher probabilities
could be needed in later outlooks.
...Eastern WY into western NE...
Beneath the upper ridge, eastern low-level winds in a post frontal
regime will aid westward moistening, with marginal instability. A
deep mixed boundary layer will favor damaging wind gusts with
activity that develops in the uncapped air mass during the late
afternoon. Modest westerlies aloft and weak low-level easterlies
should favor southeastward-moving storms with locally severe outflow
winds.
..Jewell.. 07/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible
across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday
night.
...Great Lakes to Ohio Valley...
A large upper ridge will hold over the Rockies and into the Plains,
with a moderate northwest flow regime from the Upper MS Valley and
Great Lakes into the OH Valley/Appalachians. While embedded
perturbations will exist during the day, the most prominent height
falls will occur Monday night over the Great Lakes.
At the surface, low pressure will develop late in the day from WI
into Lower MI, with a cold front pushing south overnight trailing
southwestward into northern IL. A moist and unstable air mass will
redevelop and push eastward across the region late in the day and
overnight as 850 mb winds near 40 kt develop out of the west.
Some ongoing activity may be present from Upper MI into WI, and this
could either persist or strengthen during the day as the system
develops southeastward. Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt along with the
strong instability could support a southward-moving MCS capable of
damaging winds, perhaps with significant gusts. Will maintain
current Slight Risk due to uncertainty, but higher probabilities
could be needed in later outlooks.
...Eastern WY into western NE...
Beneath the upper ridge, eastern low-level winds in a post frontal
regime will aid westward moistening, with marginal instability. A
deep mixed boundary layer will favor damaging wind gusts with
activity that develops in the uncapped air mass during the late
afternoon. Modest westerlies aloft and weak low-level easterlies
should favor southeastward-moving storms with locally severe outflow
winds.
..Jewell.. 07/25/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
Minimal changes were made to the outlook areas based on recent
guidance. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across far
southern Montana and northern Wyoming on Day 2/Sunday; however, the
broader region is expected benefit from rainfall on Day 1/Saturday
and ERCs are forecast to range from the 70-80th percentile,
precluding highlights. Nevertheless, lightning ignitions cannot be
ruled out where pockets of dry fuels exist. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central
CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A belt of stronger mid-level flow will
overspread the northern Sierra and pivot clockwise around the upper
ridge to the northern High Plains, supporting dry and gusty
conditions near the surface. As this flow is mixed downward to the
surface by a deep and dry boundary layer during the afternoon areas,
widespread 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will be
common. Given RH dipping to at least 20 percent, widespread Elevated
highlights have been introduced, from the Pacific Northwest to the
northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Additionally, guidance
consensus continues to indicate locally stronger surface wind
fields, atop dry fuels, over portions of northern Montana and the
northern Sierra to Harney Basin. Over both of these areas, 15
percent RH will coincide with the stronger winds for several hours,
warranting Critical highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
Minimal changes were made to the outlook areas based on recent
guidance. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across far
southern Montana and northern Wyoming on Day 2/Sunday; however, the
broader region is expected benefit from rainfall on Day 1/Saturday
and ERCs are forecast to range from the 70-80th percentile,
precluding highlights. Nevertheless, lightning ignitions cannot be
ruled out where pockets of dry fuels exist. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central
CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A belt of stronger mid-level flow will
overspread the northern Sierra and pivot clockwise around the upper
ridge to the northern High Plains, supporting dry and gusty
conditions near the surface. As this flow is mixed downward to the
surface by a deep and dry boundary layer during the afternoon areas,
widespread 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will be
common. Given RH dipping to at least 20 percent, widespread Elevated
highlights have been introduced, from the Pacific Northwest to the
northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Additionally, guidance
consensus continues to indicate locally stronger surface wind
fields, atop dry fuels, over portions of northern Montana and the
northern Sierra to Harney Basin. Over both of these areas, 15
percent RH will coincide with the stronger winds for several hours,
warranting Critical highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO
THE HARNEY BASIN...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central
CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A belt of stronger mid-level flow will
overspread the northern Sierra and pivot clockwise around the upper
ridge to the northern High Plains, supporting dry and gusty
conditions near the surface. As this flow is mixed downward to the
surface by a deep and dry boundary layer during the afternoon areas,
widespread 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will be
common. Given RH dipping to at least 20 percent, widespread Elevated
highlights have been introduced, from the Pacific Northwest to the
northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Additionally, guidance
consensus continues to indicate locally stronger surface wind
fields, atop dry fuels, over portions of northern Montana and the
northern Sierra to Harney Basin. Over both of these areas, 15
percent RH will coincide with the stronger winds for several hours,
warranting Critical highlights.
..Squitieri.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over the western and central CONUS today.
A belt of stronger mid-level flow, accompanied by embedded mid-level
impulses, will traverse the periphery of the upper ridge and
overspread the West Coast toward the northern Rockies. This belt of
stronger flow aloft will support dry and windy conditions supportive
of wildfire spread, with deep-layer ascent associated with embedded
impulses also supporting dry thunderstorm initiation, especially
over portions of Montana.
...Parts of the northern Sierra to the northern Rockies...
Through the afternoon, a dry boundary layer will mix upward to the
mid-levels, allowing for downward momentum transport of the
aforementioned stronger mid-level flow aloft. By afternoon peak
heating, sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph
should become widespread, especially in terrain favoring areas, from
the northern Sierra to the northern Rockies. Fifteen percent RH
should be common by afternoon peak heating, overlapping with many
areas experiencing 20+ mph sustained winds, warranting widespread
Critical highlights given dry fuels.
...Portions of Montana...
Guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depicts at
least scattered thunderstorm development across much of Montana by
afternoon as a mid-level impulse overspreads the region. Forecast
soundings show classic inverted-v profiles extending up to 500 mb,
amid appreciable flow aloft. As such, fast-moving and high-based
storms will promote dry lightning strikes over fuel beds receptive
to fire spread, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights.
Furthermore, strong vertical wind shear will accompany the mid-level
impulse, and given appreciable buoyancy aloft, several of these
storms may produce strong to severe wind gusts, which may exacerbate
any ongoing fires or holdovers. Please see the latest Day 1
Convective outlook for more details on the severe thunderstorm
threat.
..Squitieri.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
