WW 275 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 052245Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Iowa
North-Central and Northeast Kansas
Northwest Missouri
Southern and Eastern Nebraska
* Effective this Friday afternoon from 545 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop this evening
along/near the Kansas/Nebraska border. The strongest thunderstorms
should pose a threat for large to very large hail (up to 2 inches in
diameter) and severe/damaging winds (up to 65-75 mph). A tornado or
two is also possible along/near a stationary front.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of
Hastings NE to 30 miles east of Shenandoah IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 274...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27020.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 274
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW RST
TO 40 WNW RST TO 35 SE MSP TO 35 SW EAU TO 30 S EAU TO 20 NNE VOK.
..DEAN..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 274
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC039-109-157-169-060240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE OLMSTED WABASHA
WINONA
WIC053-063-081-091-121-060240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE
PEPIN TREMPEALEAU
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
this evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri
and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated wind gusts and hail will also
be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and western
Great Lakes.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over the north-central U.S. The southern part of the trough
extends southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of this
feature, a moist and unstable airmass is in place from southern
Nebraska and northern Missouri northward into much of Iowa, where
surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Along the
moist axis, the RAP currently has a pocket of strong instability
centered over the mid Missouri Valley with MLCAPE in the 3000 to
4500 J/kg range. A front, where low-level convergence is maximized,
is evident on surface analysis from northwest Iowa southwestward
into south-central Nebraska. Thunderstorms have recently developed
near the front in southeast Nebraska. These storms are expected to
steadily increase in coverage this evening as the shortwave trough
approaches.
From southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa early this evening, RAP
forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This environment will support
supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells...see
MCD 992. Short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of strong
to severe storms will organize during the evening. As this occurs,
the wind-damage threat will likely increase. If a line segment can
become intense, then wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible. The
severe threat will gradually develop eastward across southern Iowa
into northern Illinois from mid to late evening. An isolated severe
threat may persist into the early overnight period.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes...
A surface low is evident on surface analysis over northeast
Wisconsin with a cold front extending southwestward across central
and western Wisconsin. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing
along the front. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F are contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP
showing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range. Ahead of the front,
the Green Bay and La Crosse WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 25
to 35 knot range suggesting that deep-layer shear is strong enough
for an isolated severe threat. The more organized multicells along
the line could have potential for hail and isolated severe gusts for
a couple more hours this evening.
..Broyles.. 06/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More
isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
A vorticity maximum and associated jet streak within the base of
broader-scale troughing from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into
northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning are forecast to
translate into the northern High Plains by Sunday night. Meanwhile,
a short-wave trough will progress from the lower Great Lakes through
southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a 40-50 kt
wind maximum in the mid levels. At the surface, an area of low
pressure and associated front are expected to remain
quasi-stationary over the western Dakotas Sunday, prior to advancing
slowly east Sunday night. Elsewhere, a cold front will move through
the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.
...Northern Plains...
A hot, pre-frontal air mass is expected to develop Sunday afternoon
with steep lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to
low 60s contributing to moderate instability. Wrap-around moisture
on the backside of the surface front will support air mass
destabilization across portions of eastern MT into northeast WY as
well. The models suggest potentially separate severe thunderstorm
regimes evolving across the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
Isolated storms appear possible along favored terrain of central MT
into northeast WY, aided by increasing height falls downstream from
the approaching vorticity maximum and jet streak. Additional storms
appear possible along the surface front across the western Dakotas
as the strong boundary-layer heating erodes the capping.
Strengthening vertical shear will support supercells capable of
mainly large hail in post-frontal regime, and large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts within the pre-frontal warm sector.
Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen during the evening;
however, relatively high LCLs are expected to limit a robust tornado
threat. The severe-weather threat may continue into Sunday night,
especially across western and central ND.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Daytime heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected
to support moderate afternoon instability ahead of the cold front.
Latest model guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the boundary, aided by forcing for
ascent associated with the short-wave trough. Forecast soundings
indicate largely unidirectional wind profiles with 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, which would favor some cold pool organization with
an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts into early
evening.
..Mead.. 06/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley from this afternoon into the early evening.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move eastward today from the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low will deepen across
northeast Kansas, with a trough in place from the low northeastward
into western Iowa. Moisture advection will occur to the east of the
low across the mid Missouri Valley, where surface dewpoints will
increase into the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures
warm today, a pocket of strong instability will develop from
northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.
Convective initiation will be hampered by a capping inversion in
place throughout much of the afternoon. The cap is forecast to
weaken during the late afternoon or early evening, which will allow
for convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the stronger instability near the surface
trough. This convection will likely move east-southeastward across
eastern Nebraska and south-central Iowa during the early to mid
evening. Storms will eventually affect parts of northern Missouri
and north-central Illinois.
RAP forecast soundings in the early evening to the south of Omaha
and Des Moines have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear around 35 knots, and 500-700 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
dominant supercells. Cell coverage is expected to steadily increase
during the early to mid evening. This should result in a transition
to linear mode with a line gradually becoming organized. During this
process, the potential for wind damage is expected to increase, and
a few wind gusts could exceed 70 mph along the more intense parts of
the line. The wind-damage threat will likely develop eastward across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening,
as either the line approaches from the west or more storms initiate.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley today, where a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
the trough during the afternoon across parts of central Minnesota
and central to northern Wisconsin. These storms will move eastward
toward the Great Lakes during the late afternoon and early evening.
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear of 30
to 35 knots will support an isolated severe threat. A potential for
severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger short
multicell line segments.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/05/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHWEST...
...Synopsis...
The upper trough over the Northwest is forecast to deepen and
intensify as it spread eastward into the Northern Rockies and
southern Canada Saturday. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will
move southeastward, overspreading a dry and hot air mass over much
of the western US. This will promote widespread elevated and
critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels from the Great basin
to the Southwest.
...Great Basin, Intermountain West and the Southwest...
As the upper trough over the Northwest/northern Rockies intensifies,
a belt of stronger flow will overspread the hot and dry surface
conditions across the Western US. The mid-level jet max will aid in
efficient mixing of strong winds to the surface. Sustained southwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph are anticipated. With continued poor overnight
recoveries, RH values in the single digits and low teens are
expected on a widespread basis. Sustained critical fire weather
conditions are expected across portions of eastern NV, southern UT,
and northern AZ.
Weaker flow aloft farther south and east will still promote
widespread elevated conditions with 10-20% RH and surface gusts of
15-20 mph. Potentially enhanced by local terrain across southern AZ
into the Four Corners, some potential for brief critical conditions
may develop given drying fuels and increasing burn period duration.
...ID and Northern Rockies...
Ascent from the upper trough will impinge on the western edge of
surface moisture moving westward into the higher terrain. This
ascent and diurnal heating could support isolated thunderstorm
development across southern and eastern ID. Likely high-based, these
fast-moving storms would have limited precipitation efficiency.
Isolated dry lightning strikes would be possible. Currently,
convection appears more likely farther northeast where moisture is
more robust.
..Lyons.. 06/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move over the Northwest Coast
increasing mid-level southwesterly flow across the northern Rockies
and portions of the Great Basin. A second, weaker upper low and
associated moisture will move from Northern Mexico into the southern
Plains. While flow aloft will be weak over much of the Southwest,
hot and dry conditions will support elevated fire-weather potential.
...Great Basin and Southwest...
To the immediate south of the belt of stronger mid-level flow,
stagnant mid-level heights will promote a very warm and dry air mass
across much of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. Very low
daytime RH near 10% to upper single digits are expected amid 10-15
mph terrain-driven winds. Exacerbated by poor overnight humidity
recoveries and drying fuels, these conditions will support elevated
fire weather concerns across northwest Arizona, southeastern Nevada,
and southwestern Utah through the afternoon hours.
Farther east into parts of western NM, mid-level moisture associated
with the upper low over northern Mexico will promote isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases will favor limited
precipitation efficiency. This could allow for some drier storms.
However, fuels over the area are less receptive owing to recent
precipitation. Still, occasional lightning starts are possible
within locally drier fuel beds.
..Lyons.. 06/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially from James Bay into the Great Lakes
Saturday morning is forecast to amplify while translating through
southern Quebec and the Northeast. Associated mid/upper-level jet
streaks within the base of the strengthening trough are forecast to
overspread the upper OH Valley through southern New England,
enhancing vertical shear and forcing for ascent in those areas.
Elsewhere, a jet streak will round the base of a deep trough over
the Canadian Rockies into Pacific Northwest, with the trough axis
pivoting east through the Columbia Basin toward the northern
Rockies. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough will move through the
southern and central Plains, with a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level
flow extending from southwest TX through the ArkLaTex into Ozark
Plateau during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
At the surface, an initially diffuse cold front associated with the
Great Lakes/Northeast short-wave trough will slowly advance through
the Great Lakes, northern OH Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley into
northern New England. Over the northern High Plains, a surface low
is forecast to deepen along a cold front emerging from the northern
Rockies.
...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...
Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Saturday morning within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture
flux occurring along a westerly low-level jet. A subset of those
thunderstorms are likely to persist and gradually intensify from
late morning into afternoon. Additional, diurnally enhanced storms
are expected to develop within preferred zones of confluence within
the weakly capped warm sector, which will destabilize from
west-to-east over the course of the day.
The 00z HREF indicates a corridor of mean SBCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg
developing by afternoon from the OH Valley into southern New
England, which will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer
shear. As such, the potential exists for organized storm modes,
including bowing line segments and supercells capable of swaths of
wind damage and large hail during the afternoon and evening hours.
The greatest supercell potential is expected to evolve across the
upper OH Valley, where the large hail is most probable, along with
the threat for a brief tornado or two.
...Northern High Plains...
Late-arriving forcing for ascent and more robust boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to delay thunderstorm development
until late afternoon or evening in the vicinity of the surface low
and front situated along the MT-ND Border. The presence of a
moderately unstable air mass and steadily strengthening vertical
shear are expected to support supercell storm modes with an
attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The
severe-weather threat may continue into the overnight hours,
centered along the low-level jet axis.
...Red River Valley into southwest Texas...
As mentioned in the synopsis, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is
forecast within the southern/southeastern periphery of the upper
low, which will enhance vertical shear to some extent. Slightly
cooler temperatures aloft coupled with a warm and moist boundary
layer will support a moderately unstable air mass in areas
unaffected by early storms and lingering cloud cover. Forecast
soundings indicate relatively weak capping, which should permit
increasing storm coverage by afternoon along any pre-existing
boundaries. The overall environment appears supportive of multicell
storms capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally
strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.
...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
Moderate to strong afternoon instability is forecast to develop
along and south of the trailing surface front or convective outflow
boundary remnant from Friday night thunderstorms. Weak low-level
warm advection coupled with the growing influence of a mid-level
trough approaching from the southwest are expected to support widely
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While
vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak, the degree of
instability will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of
marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.
..Mead.. 06/05/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially from James Bay into the Great Lakes
Saturday morning is forecast to amplify while translating through
southern Quebec and the Northeast. Associated mid/upper-level jet
streaks within the base of the strengthening trough are forecast to
overspread the upper OH Valley through southern New England,
enhancing vertical shear and forcing for ascent in those areas.
Elsewhere, a jet streak will round the base of a deep trough over
the Canadian Rockies into Pacific Northwest, with the trough axis
pivoting east through the Columbia Basin toward the northern
Rockies. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough will move through the
southern and central Plains, with a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level
flow extending from southwest TX through the ArkLaTex into Ozark
Plateau during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
At the surface, an initially diffuse cold front associated with the
Great Lakes/Northeast short-wave trough will slowly advance through
the Great Lakes, northern OH Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley into
northern New England. Over the northern High Plains, a surface low
is forecast to deepen along a cold front emerging from the northern
Rockies.
...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...
Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Saturday morning within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture
flux occurring along a westerly low-level jet. A subset of those
thunderstorms are likely to persist and gradually intensify from
late morning into afternoon. Additional, diurnally enhanced storms
are expected to develop within preferred zones of confluence within
the weakly capped warm sector, which will destabilize from
west-to-east over the course of the day.
The 00z HREF indicates a corridor of mean SBCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg
developing by afternoon from the OH Valley into southern New
England, which will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer
shear. As such, the potential exists for organized storm modes,
including bowing line segments and supercells capable of swaths of
wind damage and large hail during the afternoon and evening hours.
The greatest supercell potential is expected to evolve across the
upper OH Valley, where the large hail is most probable, along with
the threat for a brief tornado or two.
...Northern High Plains...
Late-arriving forcing for ascent and more robust boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to delay thunderstorm development
until late afternoon or evening in the vicinity of the surface low
and front situated along the MT-ND Border. The presence of a
moderately unstable air mass and steadily strengthening vertical
shear are expected to support supercell storm modes with an
attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The
severe-weather threat may continue into the overnight hours,
centered along the low-level jet axis.
...Red River Valley into southwest Texas...
As mentioned in the synopsis, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is
forecast within the southern/southeastern periphery of the upper
low, which will enhance vertical shear to some extent. Slightly
cooler temperatures aloft coupled with a warm and moist boundary
layer will support a moderately unstable air mass in areas
unaffected by early storms and lingering cloud cover. Forecast
soundings indicate relatively weak capping, which should permit
increasing storm coverage by afternoon along any pre-existing
boundaries. The overall environment appears supportive of multicell
storms capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally
strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.
...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
Moderate to strong afternoon instability is forecast to develop
along and south of the trailing surface front or convective outflow
boundary remnant from Friday night thunderstorms. Weak low-level
warm advection coupled with the growing influence of a mid-level
trough approaching from the southwest are expected to support widely
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While
vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak, the degree of
instability will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of
marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.
..Mead.. 06/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley from this afternoon into the early evening.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move eastward today from the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low will deepen across
northeast Kansas, with a trough in place from the low northeastward
into western Iowa. Moisture advection will occur to the east of the
low across the mid Missouri Valley, where surface dewpoints will
increase into the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures
warm today, a pocket of strong instability will develop from
northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.
Convective initiation will be hampered by a capping inversion in
place throughout much of the afternoon. The cap is forecast to
weaken during the late afternoon or early evening, which will allow
for convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the stronger instability near the surface
trough. This convection will likely move east-southeastward across
eastern Nebraska and south-central Iowa during the early to mid
evening. Storms will eventually affect parts of northern Missouri
and north-central Illinois.
RAP forecast soundings in the early evening to the south of Omaha
and Des Moines have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear around 35 knots, and 500-700 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
dominant supercells. Cell coverage is expected to steadily increase
during the early to mid evening. This should result in a transition
to linear mode with a line gradually becoming organized. During this
process, the potential for wind damage is expected to increase, and
a few wind gusts could exceed 70 mph along the more intense parts of
the line. The wind-damage threat will likely develop eastward across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening,
as either the line approaches from the west or more storms initiate.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley today, where a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
the trough during the afternoon across parts of central Minnesota
and central to northern Wisconsin. These storms will move eastward
toward the Great Lakes during the late afternoon and early evening.
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear of 30
to 35 knots will support an isolated severe threat. A potential for
severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger short
multicell line segments.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/05/2026
Read more
MD 0984 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272...273... FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SD INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026
Areas affected...Parts of south-central SD into
northwest/north-central NE
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...273...
Valid 050247Z - 050445Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272, 273
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for severe gusts, isolated hail, and perhaps a
tornado will continue into late evening.
DISCUSSION...A small but intense storm cluster has evolved this
evening from western Cherry County, NE into Todd County, SD, in the
vicinity of a surface boundary that extends into
south-central/southeast SD. The KLNX VWP shows a notable increase in
0-1 km flow over the last 1-2 hours, which may help to sustain this
cluster as it moves across a corridor of relatively rich low-level
moisture and moderate buoyancy. Severe wind gusts appear to be the
primary hazard, though isolated hail and a brief tornado also cannot
be ruled out with any transient embedded supercells. Some severe
threat may continue just to the south of WW 273, though limited
spatial coverage of the threat across far northern NE may preclude
additional watch issuance.
Farther north, a recent increase in storm coverage/intensity has
been noted west of Pierre, SD, as outflow associated with earlier
western SD convection begins to impinge upon stronger buoyancy.
Stronger updrafts within this developing convection may produce
hail, while a larger-scale threat for severe gusts may evolve if
substantial upscale growth occurs.
..Dean/Guyer.. 06/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44670087 44929952 44849839 44339797 43569816 43069832
42809857 42579914 42479993 42510066 42560121 42610168
42930192 43250146 43490118 44670087
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 273
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LYONS..06/05/26
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 273
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-011-015-017-023-025-029-035-039-041-043-049-053-057-
059-065-069-073-075-077-079-085-095-097-101-107-111-115-117-119-
121-123-050240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BROOKINGS
BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX
CLARK CODINGTON DAVISON
DEUEL DEWEY DOUGLAS
FAULK GREGORY HAMLIN
HAND HUGHES HYDE
JERAULD JONES KINGSBURY
LAKE LYMAN MELLETTE
MINER MOODY POTTER
SANBORN SPINK STANLEY
SULLY TODD TRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 273 SEVERE TSTM SD 042225Z - 050600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and Friday morning from 525
PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms including a few supercells may develop
through early evening across central and east-central South Dakota,
mostly north of the I-90 corridor. Additional severe storms,
potentially as an organized line of storms, may move into the region
by late evening and the early overnight with damaging wind/hail
potential.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest
of Pierre SD to 15 miles south southeast of Brookings SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 272...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Guyer
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WW 0272 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DGW
TO 50 NW RAP TO 10 SSW DIK.
..LYONS..06/05/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-041-050240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS HETTINGER
SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-050240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE
MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS ZIEBACH
WYC045-050240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WESTON
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds are possible this evening across much of South Dakota
into parts of northern Nebraska and south-central Minnesota.
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible in
parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.
...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow is evident over much of the
north-central U.S. A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over the far western Dakotas. At the surface, a 1002 mb low
is analyzed in eastern Wyoming with a quasi-stationary front
extending northeastward into central South Dakota and north-central
Minnesota. An axis of low-level moisture is located from near the
Black Hills east-northeastward across South Dakota into
south-central Minnesota, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to
mid 60s F. Along and near this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in
the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis in the vicinity
of the Black Hills in southwestern South Dakota. The latest 00Z
sounding at Rapid City has 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 700-500
mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with large
hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible for a few more hours this evening. The wind-damage threat
will likely increase if a cell cluster can become organized and move
into central South Dakota later this evening...see MCD 983. The
southern edge of any cluster could impact parts of northern Nebraska
later this evening.
Further east into eastern South Dakota, a cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms is ongoing. The 00Z sounding at Aberdeen has
MUCAPE around 1800 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and a
700-500 mb lapse rate just above 7 C/km. This should support
supercells with large hail early this evening. 0-3 km lapse rates
near 7.5 C/km will also be favorable for severe wind gusts. The
severe threat is expected to increase in southeast and central
Minnesota later this evening, as the storms in eastern South Dakota
move along the instability axis.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
eastern Kansas. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place from
much of central and eastern Kansas northeastward into Iowa, where
surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Moderate to
strong instability is analyzed by the RAP from central Kansas into
far western Missouri. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the
northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Kansas into
southwest Iowa. These storms are being supported by a low-level
speed max of 35 to 45 knots, and could be associated with a threat
for isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. As low-level
flow increases from this evening into the overnight period, the
redevelopment of storms may occur over parts of central and eastern
Kansas, where a continued marginal severe threat will be possible.
..Broyles.. 06/05/2026
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MD 0937 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...portions of central Alabama and west-central
Mississippi
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...
Valid 011918Z - 012115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW261. Local watch
extension may be needed as storms continue southward.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues south and east across
portions of northern/central Alabama into western Mississippi this
afternoon, producing gusts generally 45-50 mph. This line of storms
is moving along a gradient of higher instability that extends across
central Alabama into Mississippi, with additional development on the
western flank of the southward moving outflow in western
Mississippi. Ahead of the line of storms, the downstream air mass
remains favorably hot and unstable. Guidance suggests that the
damaging wind threat may extend further downstream into portions of
central Mississippi and Alabama. Local extension may be needed to
WW261 to cover this potential.
..Thornton.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33918930 34238830 34498649 34478583 34108552 33648547
33038550 32768608 32708696 32708795 32748865 32818922
32988951 33558952 33918930
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts are also
likely from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
relatively more organized cold-pool-driven MCS is continuing to
track south-southeastward across eastern MS into central AL, with a
history of damaging gusts. This MCS should continue to traverse a
diffuse buoyancy axis and produce additional damaging gusts through
the afternoon, though weakening should eventually occur as the MCS
propagates away from the relatively stronger deep-layer shear. Over
the next few hours, strong to severe thunderstorms currently over
southern MO should congeal into another cold-pool-driven MCS and
drift southward into strong buoyancy, characterized by over 4000
J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is rather poor across the mid-MS
Valley. However, the strong to locally extreme buoyancy should
compensate to support multiple damaging gusts. The next cold-pool
driven MCS in the series should develop from ongoing severe hail
producing supercells across the central High Plains, which are
poised to grow upscale later this evening. Once an MCS develops, a
swath of severe gusts is likely, especially across western into
central KS.
..Squitieri.. 06/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/
...Mid-South into the Southeast...
An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with
preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN.
Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although
updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General
expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue
for the next hour or two, before building instability along the
western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles
strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given
limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely
remain transient.
Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the
afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps
western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong
buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will
support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm
organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular
mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles
should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.
The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development
farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the
evening before weakening.
...High Plains...
Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist
easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern
periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is
expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is
anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by
mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells
capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective
cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads
to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts
over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS
is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening
as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater
low-level moisture.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along
the dryline in TX.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder risk
area based on recent guidance. Increasing mid-level moisture
alongside afternoon heating and resultant instability will promote
isolated showers and thunderstorms, maintaining a threat of some
lightning ignitions across western NM, far southwestern CO, and
east-central AZ. Owing to antecedent weather conditions aiding in
curing the landscape, fuels are expected to be receptive and
conducive to fire spread as storms produce localized erratic wind
gusts with little accumulating precipitation (<0.25").
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns for Tuesday will primarily be associated with
dry lightning potential across parts of far eastern Arizona and
western New Mexico. A weak upper wave is evident off the Baja CA
coast that will migrate east towards the Southwest over the next 24
hours. Weak pressure falls across the interior West will promote
eastward low-level moisture transport into the southern Rockies. The
western periphery of the moist plume should spread into eastern AZ
by Tuesday afternoon with PWAT values on the order of 0.4 to 0.5
inch. While modest, this will provide sufficient buoyancy to support
isolated thunderstorms as weak ascent overspreads the region ahead
of the approaching wave. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 15-20
knot storm motions will help limit rainfall amounts and support the
potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with receptive
fine fuels after several days of warm and dry conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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