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Storm Prediction Center

SPC Feb 22, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday -- Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts. This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward. Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday -- Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts. This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward. Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday -- Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts. This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward. Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States. ... Discussion ... The upper-air pattern will deamplify somewhat on Tuesday as a mid-level trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest helps break down the western ridge. The result should be broad northwest flow across much of the US. At the surface, in response to this northwest flow, troughing will develop in the lee of nearly the entirety of the US Rocky Mountains. Southerly winds to the east of this trough will begin drawing moisture northward into the Southern Plains. Given the limited moisture across the central and eastern US, and the saturated, instability deprived forecast soundings associated with the expected moist, onshore/upslope flow across California, thunderstorms are currently not anticipated on Tuesday. ..Marsh.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States. ... Discussion ... The upper-air pattern will deamplify somewhat on Tuesday as a mid-level trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest helps break down the western ridge. The result should be broad northwest flow across much of the US. At the surface, in response to this northwest flow, troughing will develop in the lee of nearly the entirety of the US Rocky Mountains. Southerly winds to the east of this trough will begin drawing moisture northward into the Southern Plains. Given the limited moisture across the central and eastern US, and the saturated, instability deprived forecast soundings associated with the expected moist, onshore/upslope flow across California, thunderstorms are currently not anticipated on Tuesday. ..Marsh.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States. ... Discussion ... The upper-air pattern will deamplify somewhat on Tuesday as a mid-level trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest helps break down the western ridge. The result should be broad northwest flow across much of the US. At the surface, in response to this northwest flow, troughing will develop in the lee of nearly the entirety of the US Rocky Mountains. Southerly winds to the east of this trough will begin drawing moisture northward into the Southern Plains. Given the limited moisture across the central and eastern US, and the saturated, instability deprived forecast soundings associated with the expected moist, onshore/upslope flow across California, thunderstorms are currently not anticipated on Tuesday. ..Marsh.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States. ... Discussion ... The upper-air pattern will deamplify somewhat on Tuesday as a mid-level trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest helps break down the western ridge. The result should be broad northwest flow across much of the US. At the surface, in response to this northwest flow, troughing will develop in the lee of nearly the entirety of the US Rocky Mountains. Southerly winds to the east of this trough will begin drawing moisture northward into the Southern Plains. Given the limited moisture across the central and eastern US, and the saturated, instability deprived forecast soundings associated with the expected moist, onshore/upslope flow across California, thunderstorms are currently not anticipated on Tuesday. ..Marsh.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for much of the Florida peninsula on Monday owing to a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass overlapping drought-stricken fuels. Further west, dry and breezy southerly flow in far eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles will support Elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Florida Peninsula/Southern Georgia... Relative humidity as low as 20%-25% (with poor overnight RH recovery) and winds of 15-20 MPH out of the northwest will overlap with drought-stricken fuels across much of the Florida peninsula on Monday. This will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions, particularly in central/southern Florida. ...Eastern New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... Dry and breezy southerly/southwesterly flow will develop across much of eastern New Mexico into the TX/OK Panhandles on Monday afternoon. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds of 15-20 MPH are forecast to overlap with previously cured fuels, supporting at least Elevated fire-weather concerns. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for much of the Florida peninsula on Monday owing to a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass overlapping drought-stricken fuels. Further west, dry and breezy southerly flow in far eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles will support Elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Florida Peninsula/Southern Georgia... Relative humidity as low as 20%-25% (with poor overnight RH recovery) and winds of 15-20 MPH out of the northwest will overlap with drought-stricken fuels across much of the Florida peninsula on Monday. This will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions, particularly in central/southern Florida. ...Eastern New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... Dry and breezy southerly/southwesterly flow will develop across much of eastern New Mexico into the TX/OK Panhandles on Monday afternoon. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds of 15-20 MPH are forecast to overlap with previously cured fuels, supporting at least Elevated fire-weather concerns. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for much of the Florida peninsula on Monday owing to a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass overlapping drought-stricken fuels. Further west, dry and breezy southerly flow in far eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles will support Elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Florida Peninsula/Southern Georgia... Relative humidity as low as 20%-25% (with poor overnight RH recovery) and winds of 15-20 MPH out of the northwest will overlap with drought-stricken fuels across much of the Florida peninsula on Monday. This will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions, particularly in central/southern Florida. ...Eastern New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... Dry and breezy southerly/southwesterly flow will develop across much of eastern New Mexico into the TX/OK Panhandles on Monday afternoon. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds of 15-20 MPH are forecast to overlap with previously cured fuels, supporting at least Elevated fire-weather concerns. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas, southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns elsewhere. ...Mississippi/Louisiana... While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes additional highlights at this time. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were withheld (though considered). ...Far Southern Texas... Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas. There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to wildfire ignition. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas, southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns elsewhere. ...Mississippi/Louisiana... While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes additional highlights at this time. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were withheld (though considered). ...Far Southern Texas... Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas. There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to wildfire ignition. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas, southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns elsewhere. ...Mississippi/Louisiana... While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes additional highlights at this time. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were withheld (though considered). ...Far Southern Texas... Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas. There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to wildfire ignition. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas, southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns elsewhere. ...Mississippi/Louisiana... While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes additional highlights at this time. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were withheld (though considered). ...Far Southern Texas... Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas. There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to wildfire ignition. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday. ... Discussion ... A strong trough/surface cyclone will depart the East Coast on Monday, driving a strong surface cold front south of the US mainland. At the same time, mid-level ridging will overspread much of the western and central US, sustaining an expansive surface anticyclone across the central and eastern US. This combination of a mid-level ridge, a large surface anticyclone, and a cold frontal intrusion well into the Gulf should preclude thunderstorm development on Monday. ..Marsh.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday. ... Discussion ... A strong trough/surface cyclone will depart the East Coast on Monday, driving a strong surface cold front south of the US mainland. At the same time, mid-level ridging will overspread much of the western and central US, sustaining an expansive surface anticyclone across the central and eastern US. This combination of a mid-level ridge, a large surface anticyclone, and a cold frontal intrusion well into the Gulf should preclude thunderstorm development on Monday. ..Marsh.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday. ... Discussion ... A strong trough/surface cyclone will depart the East Coast on Monday, driving a strong surface cold front south of the US mainland. At the same time, mid-level ridging will overspread much of the western and central US, sustaining an expansive surface anticyclone across the central and eastern US. This combination of a mid-level ridge, a large surface anticyclone, and a cold frontal intrusion well into the Gulf should preclude thunderstorm development on Monday. ..Marsh.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday. ... Discussion ... A strong trough/surface cyclone will depart the East Coast on Monday, driving a strong surface cold front south of the US mainland. At the same time, mid-level ridging will overspread much of the western and central US, sustaining an expansive surface anticyclone across the central and eastern US. This combination of a mid-level ridge, a large surface anticyclone, and a cold frontal intrusion well into the Gulf should preclude thunderstorm development on Monday. ..Marsh.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from North Carolina to southern New England, and over western Washington State. ...Discussion... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period. Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will lift north-northeast during the overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection is not particularly high. Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along the northwest-north side of the cyclone. Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops within this warm-advection regime. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC Feb 22, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from North Carolina to southern New England, and over western Washington State. ...Discussion... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period. Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will lift north-northeast during the overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection is not particularly high. Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along the northwest-north side of the cyclone. Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops within this warm-advection regime. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/22/2026 Read more
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