SPC Feb 22, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday -- Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts. This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward. Read more
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday -- Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts. This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward. Read more