Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Another pronounced mid-level shortwave impulse, embedded in broader upper troughing over the western U.S., will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A surface low over the southern Plains will approach the Ozarks during the afternoon, with dry downslope flow expected over the southern High Plains into the southern Plains, west of the surface low and ahead of a southward sagging surface cold front. The downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions capable of supporting significant wildfire spread. By afternoon, a belt of 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15 percent RH across the Texas Panhandle into central and northeastern Oklahoma. Critical highlights have been added where these aforementioned surface meteorological conditions will overlap with receptive fuels that have not received meaningful precipitation accumulations in recent weeks. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF IOWA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...Synopsis... Two mid-level shortwave troughs, embedded in a broader low-amplitude upper troughing pattern, will traverse the central CONUS today. One trough will overspread the Great Lakes as a surface low gradually weakens along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border. The second mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains by afternoon, accompanied by an 80-90 kt 500 mb jet streak. As a result, gradient flow associated with the surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley, as well as dry downslope flow east of the southern Rockies, will encourage appreciable wildfire spread potential over portions of the Midwest and southern High Plains, respectively. ...Southern High Plains... As downslope flow peaks in intensity by mid to late afternoon, widespread 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds, with higher gusts, will overlap with 10-15 percent RH (perhaps lower in some locales). The best chance for these conditions will be over northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and immediate surrounding areas. Given very receptive fuels, high-end Critical conditions, supporting dangerous/rapid wildfire-spread potential, are expected. While Extremely Critical conditions are not expected to be widespread like the yesterday, spotty Extremely Critical conditions may be observed. Otherwise, 15-20 percent RH will overlap with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly winds for several hours across much of the southern High Plains, warranting broad Elevated/Critical highlights. ...Portions of the Midwest... Before the surface low undergoes significant weakening, strong gradient flow will persist during the afternoon, when boundary-layer mixing will support a belt of overlapping 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. These conditions will most likely be observed over central Iowa and immediate surrounding areas. Such conditions are high-end Critical for the Midwest, especially when considering that yesterday's precipitation has not yielded meaningful accumulations, which have also been lacking in the past few weeks. Rapid, dangerous wildfire spread is possible wherever dry fuel beds exist, and a sparse instance of Extremely Critical conditions cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening. ...Discussion... There remains notable spread evident in the latest model output concerning a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic developments within the evolving pattern across North America through this period. In general, though, guidance continues to indicate that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift inland of the Pacific coast Thursday through Thursday night, while being maintained downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, and slowly developing toward the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians vicinity. As this occurs, the center of a mid-level subtropical ridge is likely to shift from the southern Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean, with its northern periphery maintaining an influence across parts of the Southeast. A couple of initially lower amplitude short wave perturbations, within a seasonably strong belt of flow emerging from the Southwest, may be in the process of progressing into and across the central Great Plains toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys at the outset of the period. The lead perturbation, probably accompanied by a 500 mb speed maximum of 90-100+ kts, is forecast to continue into and across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, as the trailing one pivots northeastward and perhaps intensifies across the middle Mississippi Valley toward southern Great Lakes region later Thursday through Thursday night. Associated with these developments, a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone is forecast to migrate across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley during the day, perhaps slowly deepening, before continuing toward the upper Great Lakes accompanied by more substantive deepening Thursday night. ...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley... It appears that warming aloft, associated with subsidence to the south of the trailing mid/upper jet, will tend to eventually overspread the better (but still relatively modest) low-level moisture return to the evolving warm sector across the lower Ohio Valley. However, to still differing degrees, the latest runs of the various model output indicate a window of opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorm development, perhaps beginning by early afternoon, aided by daytime heating and subtle mid-level cooling/forcing for ascent accompanying the lead jet streak. The consensus of latest guidance, supported by the High Resolution Ensemble and related machine learning output, suggests that this may initiate across portions of Illinois, near or to the north and east of the Greater St. Louis area, with strongest activity tending to develop eastward and perhaps peak while spreading across east central and portions of southeastern Illinois through portions of central and southern Indiana by early Thursday evening. Forecast soundings across this corridor remain generally characterized by at least modest convective instability, and CAPE on the order of 500-750+ J/kg, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, beneath 40-50+ kt south to southwest flow in the 850-700 mb layer, may promote supercells capable of producing severe hail and a few tornadoes, and activity may eventually grow upscale enough to support increasing potential for damaging wind gusts before convection wanes late Thursday evening. ..Kerr.. 02/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts of the West Coast, southern Great Basin, central Rockies, and the lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated. ...Discussion... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS Wednesday morning through late Thursday. Across the western US, a trough will gradually shift across the Great Basin with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading the Desert Southwest into the central/southern High Plains. Forcing for ascent and cooling temperatures aloft will bring scattered thunderstorm activity across the central California coast to the Oregon/Washington Coast. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible across the southern Great Basin into the central Rockies. Generally weak thermal profiles will limit severe potential with this activity. A secondary trough will continue to shift northeast across the Great Lakes Region. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along an eastward moving front within a narrow region of warm air advection. Given the generally narrow/weak region of marginal instability, activity is this region is expected to remain sub-severe. ..Thornton/Squitieri.. 02/18/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 17 22:13:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 17 22:13:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the Southern Plains through at least Day 5/Saturday. Strong mid-level westerly flow aloft combined with surface lee trough development will support dry and breezy conditions across the Southern Plains on Day 3-4/Thursday and Friday, with fire weather concerns shifting southward into southern TX on Day 5/Saturday as a cold front sweeps through the region. Upper-level troughing moves into the eastern U.S. by early next week, ushering in northwest flow and aiding in bringing a cold front southward towards the Gulf Coast by Day 6/Sunday. Fire weather concerns could emerge across portions of the Southeast and FL by Day 7/Monday, but precipitation could limit overall threat. ...Day 3/Thursday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely to promote continued fire weather concerns across the Southern Plains. Elevated west winds south of a surface low in the Central Plains under a strong 80-90 kt mid-level jet, a dry boundary layer and dry fuels should be conducive to wildfire spread across portions of northeastern NM, TX Panhandle and OK on Day 3/Thursday. Dry and breezy westerly flow aided by favorable downslope conditions are anticipated farther south across far west TX. A slight expansion of the existing 40 percent critical probability area was warranted, primarily into eastern OK. A dry cold front diving southward and subsequent wind shift could impact existing fires Thursday afternoon and evening across the TX Panhandle and OK. ...Day 4/Friday... Another embedded mid-level short wave and associated jet streak pushes into the Southern Plains on Day 4/Friday resulting in dry and breezy downslope flow across the High Plains of eastern NM and western TX. A 40 percent critical probability area was shifted northward based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Day 5/Saturday... Dry, northerly flow in the wake of a pronounced dry cold front is expected across southern TX on Day 5/Saturday, although cooler post-frontal temperatures could somewhat mitigate a more significant fire weather threat. Nonetheless, the dry and breezy north winds along with dry fuels necessitated introduction of 40 percent critical probabilities for much of south-central TX. ...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Upper-level troughing becomes established across the eastern U.S. while ridging builds west of the Continental Divide early next week. Dry, post-frontal flow could bring fire weather concerns back into the Southeast and FL by Day 7/Monday. However, some uncertainty remains in preceding Day 6/Sunday precipitation amounts across this region, which could mitigate fire weather concerns Monday. Critical probabilities were not introduced owing to lower predictability and potential mitigating impacts from rainfall. ..Williams.. 02/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA... CORRECTED FOR NDFD COLOR FILL ISSUE ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight. ...Eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa... Near the base of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and a pronounced 100+ kt mid-level jet, strong ascent is expected to develop late this afternoon amid a mixed and modestly moist air mass. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F may allow a few hundred J/kg of buoyancy to develop. This destabilization and strong ascent may support a fast-moving arc of high-based showers/thunderstorms, particularly where surface temperatures reach into the 60s and dewpoints hold above 40 F. While buoyancy will be weak, dry low-levels and strong dynamics/background flow could support efficient downward mixing of momentum to the surface. Isolated severe/damaging gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern NE into west-central IA. Convection should weaken rapidly with eastward extent Elsewhere, isolated strong storms remain possible across portions of the CA coast ahead of a strong secondary upper trough. This is most likely overnight with a few damaging gusts or a brief tornado the primary risks owing to very strong flow and modest inland moisture advection. No changes were made to the outlook here, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 02/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast throughout the day and tonight. ...Coastal California... Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally, there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas. ...Upper Midwest... Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain less than 10%. Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail with this elevated activity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight. ...Eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa... Near the base of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and a pronounced 100+ kt mid-level jet, strong ascent is expected to develop late this afternoon amid a mixed and modestly moist air mass. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F may allow a few hundred J/kg of buoyancy to develop. This destabilization and strong ascent may support a fast-moving arc of high-based showers/thunderstorms, particularly where surface temperatures reach into the 60s and dewpoints hold above 40 F. While buoyancy will be weak, dry low-levels and strong dynamics/background flow could support efficient downward mixing of momentum to the surface. Isolated severe/damaging gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern NE into west-central IA. Convection should weaken rapidly with eastward extent Elsewhere, isolated strong storms remain possible across portions of the CA coast ahead of a strong secondary upper trough. This is most likely overnight with a few damaging gusts or a brief tornado the primary risks owing to very strong flow and modest inland moisture advection. No changes were made to the outlook here, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 02/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast throughout the day and tonight. ...Coastal California... Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally, there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas. ...Upper Midwest... Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain less than 10%. Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail with this elevated activity. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Southern and Central Plains... A strengthening surface low across eastern CO along with strong mid-level flow ahead of an approaching short wave will support another day of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central and southern Plains Thursday. Less cloud cover aiding in more efficient boundary layer mixing of stronger winds aloft should support drier conditions overall, with single digit relative humidity likely Thursday afternoon across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles where recent fire activity has emerged. Overall, a broad region of southwest winds of 15-25 mph combined with critically low humidity in the 10 to 20 percent range will promote high-end Critical fire weather conditions across much of Southern High Plains Thursday. Some northward and eastward expansion of Critical Highlights were warranted based on latest short term model guidance and recent fire activity. Similarly, existing Elevated Highlights were extended farther eastward into KS, TX and OK, with fire weather concerns potentially extending well into the evening. ...Portions of the Midwest... A swath of dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the Midwest south of a surface low approaching the Great Lakes, underneath a mid-level jet on the southern periphery of an approaching short wave. West winds of 15-25 mph combined with relative humidity around 20 percent will bring at least Elevated fire weather concerns from eastern NE, much of IA into northwestern IL. Preceding rain showers tonight into Wednesday morning should be sporadic with limited effect on drying fuels. ..Williams.. 02/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... A second, pronounced mid-level impulse, embedded in a broader and active upper troughing pattern, is poised to eject into the central Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). A surface low will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley while a second surface low develops and quickly deepens over the central High Plains. Strong isallobaric flow over portions of the Midwest, and downslope flow along lee of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, will promote appreciable wildfire spread conditions over both locales. ...Southern High Plains... The deepening of the surface low will augment downslope flow by afternoon, resulting in widespread sustained southwesterly surface winds around 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region continue to cure given a lack of appreciable rainfall prior exposure to dry and windy days, warranting the introduction of Critical highlights for the second day in a row. ...Portions of the Midwest... As a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes, sustained westerly surface winds will reach the 15-25 mph range while advecting dry air from the west. RH may reduce to 15-25 percent by afternoon peak heating. Given an appreciable lack of rainfall from eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and western/northern Illinois over the past month, the aforementioned dry and windy conditions may certainly support wildfire spread, necessitating high-end Elevated highlights. If a greater consensus among guidance members can depict 20+ mph winds better overlapping with 20 percent or lower RH, Critical highlights will be needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Southern and Central Plains... A strengthening surface low across eastern CO along with strong mid-level flow ahead of an approaching short wave will support another day of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central and southern Plains Thursday. Less cloud cover aiding in more efficient boundary layer mixing of stronger winds aloft should support drier conditions overall, with single digit relative humidity likely Thursday afternoon across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles where recent fire activity has emerged. Overall, a broad region of southwest winds of 15-25 mph combined with critically low humidity in the 10 to 20 percent range will promote high-end Critical fire weather conditions across much of Southern High Plains Thursday. Some northward and eastward expansion of Critical Highlights were warranted based on latest short term model guidance and recent fire activity. Similarly, existing Elevated Highlights were extended farther eastward into KS, TX and OK, with fire weather concerns potentially extending well into the evening. ...Portions of the Midwest... A swath of dry and breezy conditions are still expected across portions of the Midwest south of a surface low approaching the Great Lakes, underneath a mid-level jet on the southern periphery of an approaching short wave. West winds of 15-25 mph combined with relative humidity around 20 percent will bring at least Elevated fire weather concerns from eastern NE, much of IA into northwestern IL. Preceding rain showers tonight into Wednesday morning should be sporadic with limited effect on drying fuels. ..Williams.. 02/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... A second, pronounced mid-level impulse, embedded in a broader and active upper troughing pattern, is poised to eject into the central Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). A surface low will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley while a second surface low develops and quickly deepens over the central High Plains. Strong isallobaric flow over portions of the Midwest, and downslope flow along lee of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, will promote appreciable wildfire spread conditions over both locales. ...Southern High Plains... The deepening of the surface low will augment downslope flow by afternoon, resulting in widespread sustained southwesterly surface winds around 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region continue to cure given a lack of appreciable rainfall prior exposure to dry and windy days, warranting the introduction of Critical highlights for the second day in a row. ...Portions of the Midwest... As a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes, sustained westerly surface winds will reach the 15-25 mph range while advecting dry air from the west. RH may reduce to 15-25 percent by afternoon peak heating. Given an appreciable lack of rainfall from eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and western/northern Illinois over the past month, the aforementioned dry and windy conditions may certainly support wildfire spread, necessitating high-end Elevated highlights. If a greater consensus among guidance members can depict 20+ mph winds better overlapping with 20 percent or lower RH, Critical highlights will be needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening. ...Synopsis... Two shortwave troughs are expected to quickly lift north-northeastward through the central Plains and into the Ohio Valley region on Thursday. The initial perturbation will reach Illinois/Indiana by early afternoon. The intensity of this feature will remain modest with perhaps some gradual weakening in time. The second trough will evolve in the lower Missouri Valley during the evening and intensify as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley by Friday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen as it lifts northeastward from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes region. At least partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead of the surface cold front from the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains. ...Lower/middle Ohio Valley... Ahead of the cold front, a prefrontal trough/pseudo dryline is expected to be the focus for convective development during the afternoon. The degree/quality of moisture return ahead of this feature will be key in terms of the overall magnitude of the severe threat. Current observations (Tuesday) from soundings depict a very modest moist layer along the Gulf coast. A modest shortwave trough on Tuesday night into Wednesday will lift northward too quickly for more substantial moisture return. The surface pattern on Thursday will be more robust, but deeper moisture may still not reach far enough north given that mid 60s F dewpoints are only as far north as the central Gulf currently. Guidance suggests mid to upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, which does seem reasonable. That said, temperatures aloft will not be overly cold and lapse rates will not be overly steep. This will lead to convection that may remain somewhat low topped in nature. Despite limiting factors within the environment, 40-50 kts of effective shear roughly perpendicular to the boundary will favor discrete storms. Low-level flow will be increasing with time as well. Supercells capable of few tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible during the afternoon/evening. ..Wendt.. 02/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening. ...Synopsis... Two shortwave troughs are expected to quickly lift north-northeastward through the central Plains and into the Ohio Valley region on Thursday. The initial perturbation will reach Illinois/Indiana by early afternoon. The intensity of this feature will remain modest with perhaps some gradual weakening in time. The second trough will evolve in the lower Missouri Valley during the evening and intensify as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley by Friday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen as it lifts northeastward from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes region. At least partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead of the surface cold front from the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains. ...Lower/middle Ohio Valley... Ahead of the cold front, a prefrontal trough/pseudo dryline is expected to be the focus for convective development during the afternoon. The degree/quality of moisture return ahead of this feature will be key in terms of the overall magnitude of the severe threat. Current observations (Tuesday) from soundings depict a very modest moist layer along the Gulf coast. A modest shortwave trough on Tuesday night into Wednesday will lift northward too quickly for more substantial moisture return. The surface pattern on Thursday will be more robust, but deeper moisture may still not reach far enough north given that mid 60s F dewpoints are only as far north as the central Gulf currently. Guidance suggests mid to upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, which does seem reasonable. That said, temperatures aloft will not be overly cold and lapse rates will not be overly steep. This will lead to convection that may remain somewhat low topped in nature. Despite limiting factors within the environment, 40-50 kts of effective shear roughly perpendicular to the boundary will favor discrete storms. Low-level flow will be increasing with time as well. Supercells capable of few tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible during the afternoon/evening. ..Wendt.. 02/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts of the West Coast, lower Ohio/mid-Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated. ...Synopsis... A pair of successive shortwave troughs are expected to progress north-northeastward on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The initial, weaker perturbation will move from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley. Some thunderstorm potential will exist ahead of this feature within a warm advection regime in lower Michigan into northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Farther west, a more potent shortwave will move from the lower Colorado Valley/western Great Basin into the central Plains by Thursday morning. In its wake, general troughing will in the West. Cold temperatures aloft will foster potential for isolated thunderstorms along much of the West Coast. A few lightning flashes may also occur ahead of the progressing shortwave trough in the eastern Great Basin. However, ample cloud cover and cool/cold temperatures will keep such activity quite sparse. A surface low will develop late in the period in the central High Plains and shift into eastern Kansas/western Missouri by Thursday morning. Mid-level ascent and warm/moist advection will gradually increase from the Mississippi/Ohio confluence into parts of the lower Ohio Valley. There is some signal from both global and regional CAM guidance for development very late in the period near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. Farther north and east, capping may prevail given more nebulous forcing. Severe weather is not anticipated with any of the activity in these regions. ..Wendt.. 02/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts of the West Coast, lower Ohio/mid-Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated. ...Synopsis... A pair of successive shortwave troughs are expected to progress north-northeastward on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The initial, weaker perturbation will move from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley. Some thunderstorm potential will exist ahead of this feature within a warm advection regime in lower Michigan into northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Farther west, a more potent shortwave will move from the lower Colorado Valley/western Great Basin into the central Plains by Thursday morning. In its wake, general troughing will in the West. Cold temperatures aloft will foster potential for isolated thunderstorms along much of the West Coast. A few lightning flashes may also occur ahead of the progressing shortwave trough in the eastern Great Basin. However, ample cloud cover and cool/cold temperatures will keep such activity quite sparse. A surface low will develop late in the period in the central High Plains and shift into eastern Kansas/western Missouri by Thursday morning. Mid-level ascent and warm/moist advection will gradually increase from the Mississippi/Ohio confluence into parts of the lower Ohio Valley. There is some signal from both global and regional CAM guidance for development very late in the period near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. Farther north and east, capping may prevail given more nebulous forcing. Severe weather is not anticipated with any of the activity in these regions. ..Wendt.. 02/17/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Central High Plains... A deepening surface trough lee of the Rockies under broad westerly flow aloft will support a dry, downslope regime across much of the Central Plains through today. The most likely alignment of 30+ mph westerly winds, rapidly falling relative humidity as low as 10 percent and receptive fuels remains across portions of eastern CO, southwestern NE and western KS. Widespread Critical Highlights are expected for the remainder of eastern CO into much of western NE and KS amid westerly winds of 15-25 mph coinciding with relative humidity ranging from 15-25 percent this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern High Plains... Poor relative humidity recoveries overnight were observed across much of the Southern Plains under extensive cloud cover and minimal boundary layer decoupling. Satellite imagery and short term model guidance continue to indicate a clearing trend of denser cirrus across northeastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles. Better boundary layer mixing under a pronounced 100-110 kt jet max and clearing skies should result in somewhat stronger surface winds from the southwest with relative humidity already approaching 10 percent. Several hours of southwest winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts, relative humidity of 10-15 percent and abundant dry fuels could support very rapid fire spread if ignitions occur. Therefore, Extremely Critical Highlights were warranted given current observed and short term forecast trends. Critical Highlights were maintained for much of northwest TX, with Elevated fire weather conditions likely across much of eastern NM and far west TX. ..Williams.. 02/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... The first in a series of mid-level troughs will eject into the Plains today, resulting in the rapid deepening of a surface low over the northern Plains, with pronounced surface troughing over the remainder of the Plains states. The combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow associated with this weather pattern will promote a broad area of surface conditions highly supportive of significant, dangerous wildfire-spread potential. ...Central High Plains... As the surface low deepens over the northern Plains, sustained westerly winds should peak in the 30-40 mph range, with higher gusts for several hours, coinciding with boundary-layer mixing and subsequent RH reductions, down to the 10-15 percent range in spots, warranting widespread Critical highlights. Extremely Critical highlights remain in place where guidance consensus continues to show the longest term overlap of 30+ mph sustained westerly winds and at least 15 percent or lower RH atop fuels with ERCs approaching or exceeding the 90th percentile. Such conditions will support the potential for very rapid and dangerous wildfire spread. ...Southern High Plains... Widespread westerly sustained winds of at least 25 to 30 mph should become common by afternoon as a near 120 kt 500 mb jet streak overspreads the region. Concern remains for mid- and high-level cloud cover to accompany the jet streak, which may dampen RH reductions (i.e. 25-30 percent), particularly west of the Amarillo, TX longitude. Even with a more moist scenario, the strong winds atop very dry fuels will compensate to support Critical wildfire-spread conditions. East of Amarillo, RH should drop to at least 15-20 percent, suggesting that high-end Critical conditions will develop and support significant, rapid wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Central High Plains... A deepening surface trough lee of the Rockies under broad westerly flow aloft will support a dry, downslope regime across much of the Central Plains through today. The most likely alignment of 30+ mph westerly winds, rapidly falling relative humidity as low as 10 percent and receptive fuels remains across portions of eastern CO, southwestern NE and western KS. Widespread Critical Highlights are expected for the remainder of eastern CO into much of western NE and KS amid westerly winds of 15-25 mph coinciding with relative humidity ranging from 15-25 percent this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern High Plains... Poor relative humidity recoveries overnight were observed across much of the Southern Plains under extensive cloud cover and minimal boundary layer decoupling. Satellite imagery and short term model guidance continue to indicate a clearing trend of denser cirrus across northeastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles. Better boundary layer mixing under a pronounced 100-110 kt jet max and clearing skies should result in somewhat stronger surface winds from the southwest with relative humidity already approaching 10 percent. Several hours of southwest winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts, relative humidity of 10-15 percent and abundant dry fuels could support very rapid fire spread if ignitions occur. Therefore, Extremely Critical Highlights were warranted given current observed and short term forecast trends. Critical Highlights were maintained for much of northwest TX, with Elevated fire weather conditions likely across much of eastern NM and far west TX. ..Williams.. 02/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... The first in a series of mid-level troughs will eject into the Plains today, resulting in the rapid deepening of a surface low over the northern Plains, with pronounced surface troughing over the remainder of the Plains states. The combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow associated with this weather pattern will promote a broad area of surface conditions highly supportive of significant, dangerous wildfire-spread potential. ...Central High Plains... As the surface low deepens over the northern Plains, sustained westerly winds should peak in the 30-40 mph range, with higher gusts for several hours, coinciding with boundary-layer mixing and subsequent RH reductions, down to the 10-15 percent range in spots, warranting widespread Critical highlights. Extremely Critical highlights remain in place where guidance consensus continues to show the longest term overlap of 30+ mph sustained westerly winds and at least 15 percent or lower RH atop fuels with ERCs approaching or exceeding the 90th percentile. Such conditions will support the potential for very rapid and dangerous wildfire spread. ...Southern High Plains... Widespread westerly sustained winds of at least 25 to 30 mph should become common by afternoon as a near 120 kt 500 mb jet streak overspreads the region. Concern remains for mid- and high-level cloud cover to accompany the jet streak, which may dampen RH reductions (i.e. 25-30 percent), particularly west of the Amarillo, TX longitude. Even with a more moist scenario, the strong winds atop very dry fuels will compensate to support Critical wildfire-spread conditions. East of Amarillo, RH should drop to at least 15-20 percent, suggesting that high-end Critical conditions will develop and support significant, rapid wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast throughout the day and tonight. ...Coastal California... Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally, there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas. ...Upper Midwest... Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain less than 10%. Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail with this elevated activity. ..Mosier/Bunting.. 02/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast throughout the day and tonight. ...Coastal California... Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally, there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas. ...Upper Midwest... Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain less than 10%. Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail with this elevated activity. ..Mosier/Bunting.. 02/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe storms appears low, but isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the West, and across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight. ...Western States/Coastal California... A prominent upper-level trough will continue to settle south-southeastward along the West Coast through tonight, with a strong upper speed max nosing across central/southern California late today into tonight. North of the upper jet, very cold temperatures aloft will exist which will result in a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, mainly for northern/central coastal areas today. While gusty winds and/or small hail could occur, organized severe storm potential is currently expected to remain low. ...Upper Midwest... Consequential height falls will steadily occur regionally by late afternoon into tonight as a lead shortwave trough emerges from the northern/central High Plains. A related surface low will develop generally eastward across South Dakota/northern Nebraska toward Minnesota overnight. A moisture-limited warm sector, featuring mostly 40s with a few lower 50s F surface dewpoints, will shift north-northeastward toward the region in advance of an eastward-accelerating cold front. Surface heating/boundary-layer mixing will steepen low-level lapse rates into afternoon in vicinity of the surface low/front, and while capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, a few thunderstorms could occur before sunset initially across the eastern Dakotas and/or far eastern Nebraska. Some convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible given the steep lapse rates and strong deep-tropospheric wind field. Elevated thunderstorms will otherwise become more probable east-northeastward into evening and beyond across the Upper Midwest. Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail with this elevated activity. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/17/2026 Read more