Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by a deepening surface low and trailing cold front. While this system may be accompanied by shallow/weak convection, very meager moisture/instability should limit thunderstorm potential. Upstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of the Pacific Northwest, helping to dampen an upper ridge that will initially be in place over the region. Rain and gusty winds will accompany this system across coastal OR and northern CA, but thunderstorm potential appears low due to negligible instability. ..Dean.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by a deepening surface low and trailing cold front. While this system may be accompanied by shallow/weak convection, very meager moisture/instability should limit thunderstorm potential. Upstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of the Pacific Northwest, helping to dampen an upper ridge that will initially be in place over the region. Rain and gusty winds will accompany this system across coastal OR and northern CA, but thunderstorm potential appears low due to negligible instability. ..Dean.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by a deepening surface low and trailing cold front. While this system may be accompanied by shallow/weak convection, very meager moisture/instability should limit thunderstorm potential. Upstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of the Pacific Northwest, helping to dampen an upper ridge that will initially be in place over the region. Rain and gusty winds will accompany this system across coastal OR and northern CA, but thunderstorm potential appears low due to negligible instability. ..Dean.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by a deepening surface low and trailing cold front. While this system may be accompanied by shallow/weak convection, very meager moisture/instability should limit thunderstorm potential. Upstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of the Pacific Northwest, helping to dampen an upper ridge that will initially be in place over the region. Rain and gusty winds will accompany this system across coastal OR and northern CA, but thunderstorm potential appears low due to negligible instability. ..Dean.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z Update... Minor changes were made to the prior outlook for the latest forecast trends. Morning obs show the cold front progressing southward across the FL Peninsula with isolated thunderstorms and some precipitation. While initial humidity recoveries are excellent (dewpoints in the 70s F) the arrival of a very dry air mass and breezy north winds later this afternoon will still support some fire-weather conditions across the northern half of FL today. Breezy winds and poor humidity recoveries will expand southward into drier fuels, continuing the elevated fire-weather risk across the southern half of the State overnight into Monday. Across the Gulf Coast states, dry offshore flow has commenced in the wake of the prior cold front. Northerly winds of 10-15, occasionally gusting to 20 mph, are expected over much of the region and especially across southern LA and MS. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of far Southern TX and southern LA. Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly in both areas to where less rainfall and RH below 25% is expected for much of this afternoon. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/ ...Synopsis... In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas, southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns elsewhere. ...Mississippi/Louisiana... While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes additional highlights at this time. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were withheld (though considered). ...Far Southern Texas... Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas. There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to wildfire ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z Update... Minor changes were made to the prior outlook for the latest forecast trends. Morning obs show the cold front progressing southward across the FL Peninsula with isolated thunderstorms and some precipitation. While initial humidity recoveries are excellent (dewpoints in the 70s F) the arrival of a very dry air mass and breezy north winds later this afternoon will still support some fire-weather conditions across the northern half of FL today. Breezy winds and poor humidity recoveries will expand southward into drier fuels, continuing the elevated fire-weather risk across the southern half of the State overnight into Monday. Across the Gulf Coast states, dry offshore flow has commenced in the wake of the prior cold front. Northerly winds of 10-15, occasionally gusting to 20 mph, are expected over much of the region and especially across southern LA and MS. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of far Southern TX and southern LA. Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly in both areas to where less rainfall and RH below 25% is expected for much of this afternoon. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/ ...Synopsis... In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas, southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns elsewhere. ...Mississippi/Louisiana... While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes additional highlights at this time. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were withheld (though considered). ...Far Southern Texas... Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas. There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to wildfire ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z Update... Minor changes were made to the prior outlook for the latest forecast trends. Morning obs show the cold front progressing southward across the FL Peninsula with isolated thunderstorms and some precipitation. While initial humidity recoveries are excellent (dewpoints in the 70s F) the arrival of a very dry air mass and breezy north winds later this afternoon will still support some fire-weather conditions across the northern half of FL today. Breezy winds and poor humidity recoveries will expand southward into drier fuels, continuing the elevated fire-weather risk across the southern half of the State overnight into Monday. Across the Gulf Coast states, dry offshore flow has commenced in the wake of the prior cold front. Northerly winds of 10-15, occasionally gusting to 20 mph, are expected over much of the region and especially across southern LA and MS. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of far Southern TX and southern LA. Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly in both areas to where less rainfall and RH below 25% is expected for much of this afternoon. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/ ...Synopsis... In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas, southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns elsewhere. ...Mississippi/Louisiana... While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes additional highlights at this time. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were withheld (though considered). ...Far Southern Texas... Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas. There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to wildfire ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z Update... Minor changes were made to the prior outlook for the latest forecast trends. Morning obs show the cold front progressing southward across the FL Peninsula with isolated thunderstorms and some precipitation. While initial humidity recoveries are excellent (dewpoints in the 70s F) the arrival of a very dry air mass and breezy north winds later this afternoon will still support some fire-weather conditions across the northern half of FL today. Breezy winds and poor humidity recoveries will expand southward into drier fuels, continuing the elevated fire-weather risk across the southern half of the State overnight into Monday. Across the Gulf Coast states, dry offshore flow has commenced in the wake of the prior cold front. Northerly winds of 10-15, occasionally gusting to 20 mph, are expected over much of the region and especially across southern LA and MS. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of far Southern TX and southern LA. Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly in both areas to where less rainfall and RH below 25% is expected for much of this afternoon. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/ ...Synopsis... In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas, southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns elsewhere. ...Mississippi/Louisiana... While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes additional highlights at this time. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were withheld (though considered). ...Far Southern Texas... Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas. There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to wildfire ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A powerful cyclone initially offshore of the southern New England coast will move northeastward toward Nova Scotia on Monday. Any remaining lightning activity with this system is expected to be offshore by the start of the period. Otherwise, cool, dry, and stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage should preclude thunderstorm development across the central/eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, shallow convection may persist into Monday morning across parts of the Olympic Peninsula of WA, but lightning potential should generally diminish with time. A midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Canadian Prairies toward the northern High Plains during the afternoon into Monday night, along the periphery of an upper ridge. Negligible moisture/instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential with this shortwave. ..Dean.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A powerful cyclone initially offshore of the southern New England coast will move northeastward toward Nova Scotia on Monday. Any remaining lightning activity with this system is expected to be offshore by the start of the period. Otherwise, cool, dry, and stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage should preclude thunderstorm development across the central/eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, shallow convection may persist into Monday morning across parts of the Olympic Peninsula of WA, but lightning potential should generally diminish with time. A midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Canadian Prairies toward the northern High Plains during the afternoon into Monday night, along the periphery of an upper ridge. Negligible moisture/instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential with this shortwave. ..Dean.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A powerful cyclone initially offshore of the southern New England coast will move northeastward toward Nova Scotia on Monday. Any remaining lightning activity with this system is expected to be offshore by the start of the period. Otherwise, cool, dry, and stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage should preclude thunderstorm development across the central/eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, shallow convection may persist into Monday morning across parts of the Olympic Peninsula of WA, but lightning potential should generally diminish with time. A midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Canadian Prairies toward the northern High Plains during the afternoon into Monday night, along the periphery of an upper ridge. Negligible moisture/instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential with this shortwave. ..Dean.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A powerful cyclone initially offshore of the southern New England coast will move northeastward toward Nova Scotia on Monday. Any remaining lightning activity with this system is expected to be offshore by the start of the period. Otherwise, cool, dry, and stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage should preclude thunderstorm development across the central/eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, shallow convection may persist into Monday morning across parts of the Olympic Peninsula of WA, but lightning potential should generally diminish with time. A midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Canadian Prairies toward the northern High Plains during the afternoon into Monday night, along the periphery of an upper ridge. Negligible moisture/instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential with this shortwave. ..Dean.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur with heavy snow. Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also, isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur with heavy snow. Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also, isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur with heavy snow. Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also, isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur with heavy snow. Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also, isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur over the eastern third of the CONUS, with a substantially deepening surface low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, while a cold front continues southeastward and clears the Florida Peninsula by early evening. Near and ahead of this front, isolated thunderstorms may develop/move inland across the central and southern Peninsula today, but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection will remain low. For the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, intense low-level warm advection will contribute to some potential for lightning discharge in mid-level convection, associated with evolving heavier snow bands along the northwest-north side of the deepening cyclone. Across the Pacific Northwest, significant mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates are expected along the Washington coast by early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop and some potential for lightning is possible with convection occurring within this warm-advection regime. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur over the eastern third of the CONUS, with a substantially deepening surface low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, while a cold front continues southeastward and clears the Florida Peninsula by early evening. Near and ahead of this front, isolated thunderstorms may develop/move inland across the central and southern Peninsula today, but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection will remain low. For the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, intense low-level warm advection will contribute to some potential for lightning discharge in mid-level convection, associated with evolving heavier snow bands along the northwest-north side of the deepening cyclone. Across the Pacific Northwest, significant mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates are expected along the Washington coast by early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop and some potential for lightning is possible with convection occurring within this warm-advection regime. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur over the eastern third of the CONUS, with a substantially deepening surface low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, while a cold front continues southeastward and clears the Florida Peninsula by early evening. Near and ahead of this front, isolated thunderstorms may develop/move inland across the central and southern Peninsula today, but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection will remain low. For the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, intense low-level warm advection will contribute to some potential for lightning discharge in mid-level convection, associated with evolving heavier snow bands along the northwest-north side of the deepening cyclone. Across the Pacific Northwest, significant mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates are expected along the Washington coast by early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop and some potential for lightning is possible with convection occurring within this warm-advection regime. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/22/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday -- Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts. This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward. Read more