Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are forecast today across much of the Southern Great Plains, with at least Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas as well as southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. ...South-Central Texas/Big Bend... Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are forecast this afternoon, with relative humidity as low as 15-20% and winds of 15-20 MPH. Conditions in the western portion of the outlook area in the vicinity of Big Bend will tend to be drier and perhaps a little less windy (10-15 MPH), with the eastern portion in south-central Texas being more humid and windier (15-20 MPH). A narrow corridor of locally Critical conditions may exist within the gradient of these conditions, where the drier air and higher wind speeds overlap with receptive fuels. However, there was not enough confidence in a large enough spatial and temporal overlap of these conditions to warrant additional highlights at this time. ...Southwestern Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Though surface temperatures will be relatively cooler this far north into the post-frontal airmass, daytime heating and mixing is forecast to raise surface temperatures into the mid-to-upper 40s F. Forecast profiles across the area are well mixed and very dry, with surface relative humidity of around 15% and winds of 10-15 MPH. Given the critically dry fuels across the area and recent wildfire activity, Elevated highlights have been introduced in this outlook. ..Halbert.. 02/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts. ... Discussion ... A strong shortwave trough and attendant speed max over the Ohio Valley at the start of the period will quickly dig east/southeast during the day on Sunday, before pivoting north toward southern New England overnight. At the surface, a low, initially over the coastal waters of North Carolina, will deepen through the day as strong large-scale ascent increases with the approaching shortwave trough. The rate of deepening of the surface low will only increase overnight as the shortwave trough takes on a neutral to negative tilt and large-scale ascent increases further. As the surface low deepens along the coast, the intensifying warm conveyor belt to the north and west of the low, drawing warm, moist Gulf Stream air inland. The combination of strong large-scale ascent, strong low-level warm-air advection, and cooling mid-level temperatures may result in enough elevated instability to support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt as the low lifts northward along the coast. Farther south and west, the deepening surface low will drive a cold front south across the Florida Peninsula. Surface temperatures in the 70Fs and dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60Fs may support a narrow ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg ahead of the southward advancing front. As a result, showers and a few thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show pronounced mid-and-upper-level warming, which will limit the overall instability and a more robust lightning threat. Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection associated with the next upper-trough may lead to very isolated lightning strikes along and off the Pacific Northwest coast. However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need for delineation. ..Marsh.. 02/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN GULF STATES TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states. Damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are the expected hazards. ...Gulf States/South Atlantic Coast... Strong short-wave trough is ejecting east across KS/northern OK late this evening as a secondary 500mb speed max digs southeast toward the central High Plains. As the secondary short wave digs southeast, the northern/southern stream will become more phased over the MS Valley by late afternoon. Net result will be to suppress the primary corridor of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern Plains/Gulf states into the middle Atlantic. As heights fall across the Midwest into the northern Gulf states, pressures will rise over the interior CONUS and the synoptic front should begin to surge southeast across the lower MS Valley. Late this evening, scattered thunderstorms have developed over northern MS/AL, just north of the boundary within a zone of low-level warm advection. This activity should spread east and should be ongoing at the start of the period along the cool side of the boundary. While much of day1 convection will be elevated north of the wind shift, some boundary-layer heating is expected across the warm sector, and modest SBCAPE is expected where surface dew points will range from the upper 60s to near 70F. Forecast soundings suggest more than adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized rotating updrafts. Low-level shear is not expected to be particularly noteworthy so damaging gusts and hail are the primary concerns, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Convection will develop/spread east along the frontal zone and the greatest risk for robust convection will be during the afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. A couple of lightning strikes will also be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina. ... Discussion ... The mid-level pattern will undergo amplification on Sunday as a strong mid-level low/trough dives southeast from the mid-Mississippi Valley to off the North Carolina coast and takes on a neutral to negative tilt. A surface low off the Carolina coast will deepen rapidly in response to the intensifying large-scale ascent. Northerly winds on the west side of the deepening surface low will drive a surface cold front south through the Florida Peninsula, potentially clearing south Florida by Monday morning. Modest instability (~500 J/kg) across the central peninsula may support isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, although warm mid-level temperatures should temper the overall thunderstorm potential/coverage. Elsewhere, an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the surface low rapidly deepens and an intensifying warm conveyor belt results in elevated instability developing to the west/northwest of the surface low. Additionally, a few lightning strikes may occur along and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest as the next upper-trough approaches. However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need for delineation. ..Marsh.. 02/20/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 20 07:50:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0105 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST IOWA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Iowa...extreme southeast Minnesota...and southwest Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 200500Z - 201000Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will develop/spread across northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin over the next several hours. Snow rates may exceed 1 inch per hour at times. DISCUSSION...Southwest-northeast oriented band of moderate-heavy snow persists across IA late this evening. This band is expected to spread/develop across northeast IA into southwest WI as the 700mb low advances across eastern IA into southern WI by 12z. Latest radar/satellite imagery suggest multiple heavier bands will begin to coalesce along an axis from near ALO-PDC-VOK as the primary midlevel circulation shifts east over the next few hours. While heavy snow with rates around 1 inch per hour are expected, a very narrow zone of mixed precipitation may exist along the eastern fringe of this corridor briefly before transitioning to snow. ..Darrow.. 02/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 43019271 43669143 44269029 43998980 42889077 42349218 43019271 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A dry and breezy post-frontal airmass associated with a jet maximum exiting the southern Plains will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas on Saturday. Relative humidity of 15-20% is expected with northerly surface winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 20). While there is generally a gradient of fuel readiness across the area, with drier fuels in the west, these conditions will still pose an Elevated threat for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon. ..Halbert.. 02/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a shortwave trough embedded in broader westerly flow progresses across the southern Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, dry and breezy downslope winds associated with a developing surface low will result in widespread Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma Panhandle/West Texas. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% (drier with southward extent) coupled with 20-25 MPH winds will overlap a variety of fuel conditions, ranging from seasonal 60th percentile ERCs to 95th percentile. This will support wildfire spread with any ignitions during the afternoon. ..Halbert.. 02/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts. ... Discussion ... Strong west/southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern and eastern United States at the start of the forecast period. A subtle southern stream shortwave trough will amplify on Saturday as it interacts with this stronger mid-level flow and approaching northern stream trough. A remnant frontal boundary will be stretched from southern North Carolina southwestward toward southeast Texas. A surface low will develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in response to the amplifying mid-level trough before quickly out to sea by Sunday morning. Ongoing thunderstorms at the start of the forecast period should persist through the morning, as the mid-level wave amplifies and surface low develops. Along and south of the front, modest diurnal heating will result in an environment with up to 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Long, straight hodographs largely parallel to the frontal zone should favor small linear/bowing segments over supercells, despite the strong deep-layer shear present. A marginal threat for damaging wind gusts will accompany any sustained thunderstorm segment. A modest low-level jet during the morning hours may provide enough low-level streamwise vorticity to support a brief tornado or two. This threat should diminish during the afternoon as the low-level jet veers and weakens. ..Marsh.. 02/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES ...SUMMARY... Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds. To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral. While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/20/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 19 15:05:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN INDIANA VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0903 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Areas affected...northern Indiana vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191503Z - 191630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail for a couple of hours this morning. The overall risk should remain limit in magnitude, and a watch is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning within an area of warm advection to the north of a surface warm front. Morning regional RAOBs and latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicated cold temperatures aloft supporting midlevel lapse rates greater than 7 C/km. As a result, MUCAPE has increased to 250-500 J/kg. Sufficient effective shear for organized storms is present. Furthermore, elongated hodographs with increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft are noted. This environment may sporadically support strong storms producing marginal hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. The magnitude of this initial convection is expected to remain limit, precluding watch issuance at this time. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 02/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... LAT...LON 41128707 41458609 41618540 41508470 41148462 40718465 40568515 40528636 40598680 40768704 41128707 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening. A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64, across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late evening. ...Coastal South-Central California... Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... The first in a series of mid-level impulses, embedded within a broader upper troughing pattern, will overspread the central Plains today, encouraging a surface low to track from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, the combination of dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies, and gradient flow driven by the surface low, should promote warm, dry and windy conditions ahead of a southward-surging cold front. Across the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma and Missouri, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly winds may coincide with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours this afternoon. Critical highlights have been maintained since these surface meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels. Some areas from north-central Texas into Missouri have received appreciable rainfall accumulations over the past week. Nonetheless, finer fuels have more recently experienced dry conditions, potentially increasing their receptiveness to wildfire spread. Farther south across western Texas, surface winds should only peak in the 15-20 mph range, amid 20 percent RH, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 19 07:24:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A more substantive increase and clustering of thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but generally sub-severe wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo renewed amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific through this period. This is likely to include a significant short wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians. Farther east, mid-level ridging is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley. There remains spread among model output concerning the continuing strength of a short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged from this troughing, after it reaches southwestern portions of the Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period. It is generally forecast to become sheared and weaken as it progresses to the south of a blocking mid-level high centered near southern Hudson Bay, and downstream troughing digging into the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. However, it appears possible that it may maintain considerable strength east-northeastward across the lower Great Lakes region through the day Friday, while its associated occluding surface cyclone weakens across Michigan. It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis will be slow/subdued from the lee of the Blue Ridge across and east-northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, before perhaps undergoing more substantive deepening offshore Friday night. The trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall across the Carolinas, while retreating northward near the southern edge of the strong westerlies across the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday, in advance of a short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest. Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the Gulf is probable along and south of the front. However, warm layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development through much of Friday into Friday evening. ...Gulf Coast States... While mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the short wave trough emerging from the Southwest may remain well to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, it appears that strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support potential for increasing thunderstorm development by late Friday evening and continue overnight. There appears a consensus among latest model output that this will focus across parts of northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia by 12Z Saturday. While this is likely to become rooted above a cool, stable near-surface layer, forecast soundings indicate that an initially warm/dry capping layer above the moist layer will contribute to convectively unstable thermodynamic profiles, which may become conducive to severe hail, in the presence of strong cloud bearing layer shear. Potential for severe gusts appears low, but as activity strengthens and perhaps organizes overnight, gusty surface winds may accompany activity. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY...OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning. ...Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley... Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with 50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs. Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH. Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity, the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms. However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie. ...Central CA Coast... A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such, locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front pushes south. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear less than 5 percent across the U.S. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper flow may undergo renewed amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific, including a significant short wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians. Farther east, mid-level ridging is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley. An initially vigorous short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged from this troughing, may maintain considerable strength into the day Friday while progressing east-northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. However, it is still generally forecast to become sheared and weaken to the south of a mid-level high centered near southern Hudson/James Bays. As it does, the associated occluding cyclone is forecast to substantively weaken. It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis across and east-northeast of the Mid Atlantic region will remain subdued, and the primary trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall near the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies, across parts of the Carolinas into the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday. Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the Gulf is probable along and south of this front. However, warm layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development. As mid/upper forcing for ascent, associated with short waves within the strong flow emerging from the Southwest, remains mostly to the cool side of the front, potential for stronger thunderstorm development seems likely to become focused along or just to the cool side of the frontal zone. While deep-layer shear near the front is likely to be strong and potentially supportive of organized thunderstorm development, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become conducive to a risk for severe weather remains unclear. It appears that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be generally weak, and most unstable CAPE is forecast anywhere from modest to weak. At the present time the risk for severe thunderstorms Friday through Friday night appears mostly conditional, and too conditional support a forecast of 5 percent or greater severe probabilities. However, this could still change in later outlook updates for this period, particularly across parts of the Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 02/18/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 18 08:32:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 18 08:32:01 UTC 2026.