Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Convective potential will be virtually nil today. While isolated lightning flashes were noted overnight east of Long Island and near coastal southern New England, lightning-conducive thermodynamic profiles, in the northwest quadrant of the deep offshore cyclone, will continue to quickly diminish and shift away from the coast. In the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes occurred overnight in coastal Washington, and a sliver of weak buoyancy was observed in the 12z UIL/Quillayute, WA sounding. However, a trend toward shortwave ridging and less-lightning-conducive thermodynamic profiles should effectively end such thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Convective potential will be virtually nil today. While isolated lightning flashes were noted overnight east of Long Island and near coastal southern New England, lightning-conducive thermodynamic profiles, in the northwest quadrant of the deep offshore cyclone, will continue to quickly diminish and shift away from the coast. In the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes occurred overnight in coastal Washington, and a sliver of weak buoyancy was observed in the 12z UIL/Quillayute, WA sounding. However, a trend toward shortwave ridging and less-lightning-conducive thermodynamic profiles should effectively end such thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... Convective potential will be virtually nil today. While isolated lightning flashes were noted overnight east of Long Island and near coastal southern New England, lightning-conducive thermodynamic profiles, in the northwest quadrant of the deep offshore cyclone, will continue to quickly diminish and shift away from the coast. In the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes occurred overnight in coastal Washington, and a sliver of weak buoyancy was observed in the 12z UIL/Quillayute, WA sounding. However, a trend toward shortwave ridging and less-lightning-conducive thermodynamic profiles should effectively end such thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/23/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5). A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities. In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5). A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities. In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5). A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities. In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma. Read more

MD 0116 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR NEW YORK CITY VICINITY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Areas affected...New York City Vicinity into southern New England Concerning...Blizzard Valid 230545Z - 231045Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue from the NYC Metro vicinity into southern New England. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely with localized 2+ inches per hour possible. Greater rates will spread north with time. Blizzard conditions will also become more prevalent, particularly near the coast. DISCUSSION...Over the past 5 hours, the surface cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast has deepened approximately 9 mb per objective analysis. Bands of moderate to heavy snow continue to pivot into the NYC metro vicinity as well as southern New England. Moderate snow observations are beginning to occur into Massachusetts. As the upper trough continues to intensify and become more negatively tilted, the surface cyclone will deepen further into Monday morning. A long duration of at least moderate snowfall can be expected. Closer to 4-7 AM EST, a zone of very favorable ascent is expected to set up over southern New England. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely along with the potential for localized 2+ inches per hour. Greater snowfall rates will also gradually shift northward as the system slowly lifts northeastward. Beyond significant snowfall rates, surface winds have already begun to increase from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Current observations show winds gusting into the mid 30s to low 40s kts in Long Island. This trend should continue over the next several hours. Blizzard conditions will remain more likely near the coast, but inland areas will become increasingly impacted by strong winds and reduced visibility later this morning. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI... LAT...LON 40447378 40557434 40767470 41187464 41617431 41777408 42057317 42257271 42327212 42307140 41997061 41757033 41347048 40447378 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the Tennessee Valley. ... Discussion ... A fast moving, positively tilted shortwave trough embedded in the broad northwest flow across the US will move from the Interior Pacific Northwest to Iowa/Missouri during the forecast period. At the surface, southerly winds to the east of a broad lee trough will begin drawing warm air and Gulf moisture northward through the day on Wednesday, ultimately aiding the development of a northwest-to-southeast oriented warm front stretching from Nebraska to Alabama/Georgia. In response to the approaching shortwave trough, southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen across Texas into the Ohio Valley overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation will likely develop in response to this increasing moist isentropic ascent. Forecast soundings from the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley indicate sufficient moistening just above the boundary layer to support up to 500 J/kg of elevated instability and the potential for a few thunderstorms. As of now, the weak instability should limit any severe threat with these elevated storms. ..Marsh.. 02/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the Tennessee Valley. ... Discussion ... A fast moving, positively tilted shortwave trough embedded in the broad northwest flow across the US will move from the Interior Pacific Northwest to Iowa/Missouri during the forecast period. At the surface, southerly winds to the east of a broad lee trough will begin drawing warm air and Gulf moisture northward through the day on Wednesday, ultimately aiding the development of a northwest-to-southeast oriented warm front stretching from Nebraska to Alabama/Georgia. In response to the approaching shortwave trough, southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen across Texas into the Ohio Valley overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation will likely develop in response to this increasing moist isentropic ascent. Forecast soundings from the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley indicate sufficient moistening just above the boundary layer to support up to 500 J/kg of elevated instability and the potential for a few thunderstorms. As of now, the weak instability should limit any severe threat with these elevated storms. ..Marsh.. 02/23/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains... Mid-level flow will increase across the central and southern Rockies on Tuesday. A modestly deep lee cyclone will promote downslope winds from southeast Colorado into northeastern/east-central New Mexico. Winds of 20-25 mph appear possible, especially within the more terrain-favored locations. RH of 10-15% will also be common. Dry fuels will continue to support ignition and spread in this environment. Critical fire weather is most likely in southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico and parts of the Texas South Plains. Farther south, weaker winds will keep fire weather concerns Elevated within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend regions. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Ahead of the surface front, stout, gusty southerly/southwesterly winds are expected from the Texas Rolling Plains into much of Oklahoma and Ozarks. Mid/high clouds will be increasingly probable with northeastward extent. However, the dry return flow will allow RH of fall into the 15-25% range. Winds of 15-20 mph will occur during the afternoon. Strong flow within the lowest 2 km will also promote stronger gusts. Most areas have not observed precipitation recently and fuels remain receptive. ...Southeast Wyoming into the Front Range... Given the pressure gradient across the terrain, dry downslope winds will be possible in these areas. Recent precipitation has mitigated fuels dryness in the short term. Furthermore, mid/upper clouds appear likely which will create some uncertainty in how low RH will fall. Locally elevated conditions do appear possible where fuels are drier as pockets of stronger wind are possible. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains... Mid-level flow will increase across the central and southern Rockies on Tuesday. A modestly deep lee cyclone will promote downslope winds from southeast Colorado into northeastern/east-central New Mexico. Winds of 20-25 mph appear possible, especially within the more terrain-favored locations. RH of 10-15% will also be common. Dry fuels will continue to support ignition and spread in this environment. Critical fire weather is most likely in southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico and parts of the Texas South Plains. Farther south, weaker winds will keep fire weather concerns Elevated within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend regions. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Ahead of the surface front, stout, gusty southerly/southwesterly winds are expected from the Texas Rolling Plains into much of Oklahoma and Ozarks. Mid/high clouds will be increasingly probable with northeastward extent. However, the dry return flow will allow RH of fall into the 15-25% range. Winds of 15-20 mph will occur during the afternoon. Strong flow within the lowest 2 km will also promote stronger gusts. Most areas have not observed precipitation recently and fuels remain receptive. ...Southeast Wyoming into the Front Range... Given the pressure gradient across the terrain, dry downslope winds will be possible in these areas. Recent precipitation has mitigated fuels dryness in the short term. Furthermore, mid/upper clouds appear likely which will create some uncertainty in how low RH will fall. Locally elevated conditions do appear possible where fuels are drier as pockets of stronger wind are possible. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...Synopsis... ...Florida... A dry airmass will move down the peninsula today in the wake of a cold front. Recent precipitation has mitigated some fuel receptiveness, particularly in North/Central Florida. However, South Florida has remained rather dry and fuels will be receptive to ignitions/spread. Winds will generally be stronger in the morning, before slowly weakening into the afternoon/evening. During the afternoon, winds of 10-15 mph can be expected. Given persistent surface winds down the peninsula, RH may be near Elevated criteria even early this morning. RH values by afternoon will be 25-35% in the north with around 20% in the south. Critical fire weather is expected in South Florida with elevated to locally critical elsewhere. ...Southern High Plains... Winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are possible during the afternoon. Lack of recent rainfall has continued to allow fuels to dry. Elevated fire weather can be expected. ...Central Gulf Coast... Dry offshore flow will continue today. Despite RH of 20-25% in some areas, winds will generally be too light to promote more than locally elevated concerns. ...Southeast Wyoming... It is possible that locally elevated conditions will occur today as winds increase due to a modest lee trough and increasing mid-level winds. Mid/upper clouds will potentially keep temperatures cool and RH higher. Fuel receptiveness is also uncertain given recent precipitation. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...Synopsis... ...Florida... A dry airmass will move down the peninsula today in the wake of a cold front. Recent precipitation has mitigated some fuel receptiveness, particularly in North/Central Florida. However, South Florida has remained rather dry and fuels will be receptive to ignitions/spread. Winds will generally be stronger in the morning, before slowly weakening into the afternoon/evening. During the afternoon, winds of 10-15 mph can be expected. Given persistent surface winds down the peninsula, RH may be near Elevated criteria even early this morning. RH values by afternoon will be 25-35% in the north with around 20% in the south. Critical fire weather is expected in South Florida with elevated to locally critical elsewhere. ...Southern High Plains... Winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are possible during the afternoon. Lack of recent rainfall has continued to allow fuels to dry. Elevated fire weather can be expected. ...Central Gulf Coast... Dry offshore flow will continue today. Despite RH of 20-25% in some areas, winds will generally be too light to promote more than locally elevated concerns. ...Southeast Wyoming... It is possible that locally elevated conditions will occur today as winds increase due to a modest lee trough and increasing mid-level winds. Mid/upper clouds will potentially keep temperatures cool and RH higher. Fuel receptiveness is also uncertain given recent precipitation. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...Synopsis... ...Florida... A dry airmass will move down the peninsula today in the wake of a cold front. Recent precipitation has mitigated some fuel receptiveness, particularly in North/Central Florida. However, South Florida has remained rather dry and fuels will be receptive to ignitions/spread. Winds will generally be stronger in the morning, before slowly weakening into the afternoon/evening. During the afternoon, winds of 10-15 mph can be expected. Given persistent surface winds down the peninsula, RH may be near Elevated criteria even early this morning. RH values by afternoon will be 25-35% in the north with around 20% in the south. Critical fire weather is expected in South Florida with elevated to locally critical elsewhere. ...Southern High Plains... Winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are possible during the afternoon. Lack of recent rainfall has continued to allow fuels to dry. Elevated fire weather can be expected. ...Central Gulf Coast... Dry offshore flow will continue today. Despite RH of 20-25% in some areas, winds will generally be too light to promote more than locally elevated concerns. ...Southeast Wyoming... It is possible that locally elevated conditions will occur today as winds increase due to a modest lee trough and increasing mid-level winds. Mid/upper clouds will potentially keep temperatures cool and RH higher. Fuel receptiveness is also uncertain given recent precipitation. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday. ... Discussion ... Fast, broad northwest flow will be in place across much of the US upper-levels on Tuesday. Embedded within this flow, a strong shortwave trough will move from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will skirt the central US-Canada border, ending up north of the Great Lakes. Despite impressive kinematics associated with this trough/cyclone, limited moisture and instability should preclude thunderstorm development. A secondary low will develop southward from eastern Colorado into Northwest Texas, within a broad lee trough stretching from north of Montana southward into central Texas. This low will begin drawing Gulf moisture northward into the central US. However, the lack of focused surface convergence/large-scale ascent should preclude precipitation/thunderstorms from developing on Tuesday. Across the West, a strong atmospheric river will take aim across portions of the Pacific Northwest into northern California as an extremely positively tilted trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Forecast soundings across the area denote nearly saturated, moist adiabatic temperature/dewpoint profiles, which should inhibit sufficient instability for thunderstorm development. ..Marsh.. 02/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday. ... Discussion ... Fast, broad northwest flow will be in place across much of the US upper-levels on Tuesday. Embedded within this flow, a strong shortwave trough will move from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will skirt the central US-Canada border, ending up north of the Great Lakes. Despite impressive kinematics associated with this trough/cyclone, limited moisture and instability should preclude thunderstorm development. A secondary low will develop southward from eastern Colorado into Northwest Texas, within a broad lee trough stretching from north of Montana southward into central Texas. This low will begin drawing Gulf moisture northward into the central US. However, the lack of focused surface convergence/large-scale ascent should preclude precipitation/thunderstorms from developing on Tuesday. Across the West, a strong atmospheric river will take aim across portions of the Pacific Northwest into northern California as an extremely positively tilted trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Forecast soundings across the area denote nearly saturated, moist adiabatic temperature/dewpoint profiles, which should inhibit sufficient instability for thunderstorm development. ..Marsh.. 02/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep convection capable of generating lightning during the day1 period. While very weak buoyancy may exist near the southern New England coast, as a deep cyclone ejects northeast toward Nova Scotia, the prospect for lightning appears too low to warrant 10 percent thunder today. Another region where very weak elevated instability is expected to support shallow convection is across northwest WA early in the period. Short-wave ridging will quickly spread across this region and thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep convection capable of generating lightning during the day1 period. While very weak buoyancy may exist near the southern New England coast, as a deep cyclone ejects northeast toward Nova Scotia, the prospect for lightning appears too low to warrant 10 percent thunder today. Another region where very weak elevated instability is expected to support shallow convection is across northwest WA early in the period. Short-wave ridging will quickly spread across this region and thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep convection capable of generating lightning during the day1 period. While very weak buoyancy may exist near the southern New England coast, as a deep cyclone ejects northeast toward Nova Scotia, the prospect for lightning appears too low to warrant 10 percent thunder today. Another region where very weak elevated instability is expected to support shallow convection is across northwest WA early in the period. Short-wave ridging will quickly spread across this region and thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/23/2026 Read more

MD 0115 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NEW YORK CITY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Areas affected...New York City into Southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 230024Z - 230530Z SUMMARY...A long-duration moderate/heavy snowfall event will increasingly impact NYC into parts of southern New England this evening into Monday morning. 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates will be likely, particularly after midnight EST. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery from the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England shows a band of moderate to heavy snow moving slowly northward into Long Island. Already, recent surface observations reported 1 inch in the last hour at Islip, LaGuardia, and JFK. This band should continue to impact parts of southern New England this evening. The highest snowfall rates will at least initially remain near the coast. With time, the 994 mb low analyzed off the Mid-Atlantic coast will deepen, particularly after 11 pm/midnight EST. This will eventually promote a broader zone of stronger isentropic ascent that will promote more widespread moderate/heavy snow farther north. Surface winds will also concurrently increase with the deepening of the low. Blizzard conditions will be possible late this evening into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 40437381 40837418 41297422 41837324 42027152 41987060 41757033 41347048 40437381 Read more