SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula
during the day. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from
North Carolina to southern New England, and over western Washington
State.
...Discussion...
Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley
late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream
and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period.
Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will
lift north-northeast during the overnight hours.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as
it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor
lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection
is not particularly high.
Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for
lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic
coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the
majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along
the northwest-north side of the cyclone.
Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and
steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early
afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and
some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops
within this warm-advection regime.
..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/22/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula
during the day. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from
North Carolina to southern New England, and over western Washington
State.
...Discussion...
Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley
late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream
and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period.
Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will
lift north-northeast during the overnight hours.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as
it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor
lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection
is not particularly high.
Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for
lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic
coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the
majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along
the northwest-north side of the cyclone.
Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and
steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early
afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and
some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops
within this warm-advection regime.
..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/22/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Westerly flow is deepening/strengthening across the Southeast early
this evening as northern/southern-streams begin to phase later
tonight, in response to the maturing upper trough. Scattered
thunderstorms continue along the frontal zone from coastal MS into
southern GA, but have struggled to attain appreciable intensity.
While deep-layer flow is more than adequate for sustaining robust
updrafts, current trends suggest the primary risk with this activity
will be sub-severe wind gusts and maybe some small hail. As a
result, severe probabilities will be lowered for the rest of the
period.
..Darrow.. 02/22/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Westerly flow is deepening/strengthening across the Southeast early
this evening as northern/southern-streams begin to phase later
tonight, in response to the maturing upper trough. Scattered
thunderstorms continue along the frontal zone from coastal MS into
southern GA, but have struggled to attain appreciable intensity.
While deep-layer flow is more than adequate for sustaining robust
updrafts, current trends suggest the primary risk with this activity
will be sub-severe wind gusts and maybe some small hail. As a
result, severe probabilities will be lowered for the rest of the
period.
..Darrow.. 02/22/2026
Read more
MD 0112 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MS/AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Areas affected...Southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 212014Z - 212245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage early
this afternoon from southeast MS into south AL, along and ahead of a
southward-sagging cold front. Some recovery has occurred this
afternoon to the north of the initial wind shift, with the leading
edge of the deeper cold and stable air still across parts of central
MS/AL, to the north of the developing storms.
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear are
conditionally favorable for organized storm structures, including
supercells. However, aside from weakly confluent flow near the
front, forcing for ascent is expected to remain generally
weak/nebulous across the region through the afternoon. The modest
ascent and a warm layer based around 700 mb (as observed on the 18Z
LIX sounding) may result in only slow intensification of the
developing storms and generally isolated severe coverage, though a
couple splitting supercells and/or small bowing segments may evolve
with time. If developing convection can mature and be sustained
near/south of the front, then some threat for isolated hail and
damaging winds could evolve this afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 02/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30528527 30258543 30358727 30388854 30518978 31338973
31828712 32138527 31888511 31648512 31168514 30528527
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 011200Z
An active fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the
Florida Peninsula and the Southern/Central Plains through much of
the extended forecast period. For Day 3/Monday, a mid/upper-level
ridge is forecast over the Southwest with a mid/upper-level trough
over the Southeast. Thereafter, the Southwest ridge is forecast to
flatten while broad troughing (and enhanced mid-level flow) develops
across much of the CONUS. At the surface, portions of Florida will
remain in a very dry post-frontal regime Day 3/Monday while episodic
lee surface trough strengthening occurs across the Central Plains
Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday.
...Day 3/Monday: Florida Peninsula and Southern Georgia...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are probable early
Day 3/Monday morning across portions of the Florida Peninsula due to
very poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering post-frontal
breeziness. Although daytime temperatures will be relatively cool
behind the front, critical conditions appear likely across portions
of the Florida Peninsula (where 70% probabilities for Critical fire
weather conditions have been introduced) due to the combination of
low-to-extremely-low minimum RH values, strong northerly
post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought
conditions.
...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains...
Relatively dry southerly/southwesterly return flow is forecast to
increase across the southern Plains Day 3/Monday as lee troughing
strengthens, which should promote Elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of eastern New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and far western Oklahoma.
Fire weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread Day
4/Tuesday across the southern Plains as strong mid-level flow
remains in place and the lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
gradient strengthens further while developing southward. While
critical fire weather conditions are most likely behind the dry line
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle where
strong downslope flow is expected, confidence is currently too low
to introduce 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions.
Additionally, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions
were expanded into portions of Oklahoma based on the latest ensemble
guidance, where a dry return flow regime is forecast.
Confidence is a bit lower Day 4/Tuesday across the Central Plains,
with ensemble guidance offering differing solutions for the
evolution of a developing surface cyclone in the lee of the Laramie
Range. While critical probabilities were not introduced with this
outlook, fire weather conditions are possible depending on the
evolution/strength of the cyclone.
Run-to-run model variability has increased somewhat for Day
5/Wednesday, with impactful differences in the strength and
positioning of the surface low through the day over the Southern
Plains. In turn, this decreases confidence in critical fire weather
highlights across the area. Nevertheless, the 40% probability for
Critical fire weather conditions was maintained as at least elevated
fire weather conditions appear likely across much of the area.
...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern/Central Plains...
Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 6/Thursday and into the
next weekend, which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities
beyond Day 5/Wednesday. Nonetheless, the mid/upper-level pattern
continues to favor broad troughing across the CONUS, with enhanced
mid-level flow and multiple short-wave impulses crossing the central
United States. This flow pattern coupled with ongoing drought
conditions (and little-to-no forecast rainfall) suggest fire weather
conditions will likely linger across portions of the plains through
at least Day 8/Saturday.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 011200Z
An active fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the
Florida Peninsula and the Southern/Central Plains through much of
the extended forecast period. For Day 3/Monday, a mid/upper-level
ridge is forecast over the Southwest with a mid/upper-level trough
over the Southeast. Thereafter, the Southwest ridge is forecast to
flatten while broad troughing (and enhanced mid-level flow) develops
across much of the CONUS. At the surface, portions of Florida will
remain in a very dry post-frontal regime Day 3/Monday while episodic
lee surface trough strengthening occurs across the Central Plains
Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday.
...Day 3/Monday: Florida Peninsula and Southern Georgia...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are probable early
Day 3/Monday morning across portions of the Florida Peninsula due to
very poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering post-frontal
breeziness. Although daytime temperatures will be relatively cool
behind the front, critical conditions appear likely across portions
of the Florida Peninsula (where 70% probabilities for Critical fire
weather conditions have been introduced) due to the combination of
low-to-extremely-low minimum RH values, strong northerly
post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought
conditions.
...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains...
Relatively dry southerly/southwesterly return flow is forecast to
increase across the southern Plains Day 3/Monday as lee troughing
strengthens, which should promote Elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of eastern New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and far western Oklahoma.
Fire weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread Day
4/Tuesday across the southern Plains as strong mid-level flow
remains in place and the lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
gradient strengthens further while developing southward. While
critical fire weather conditions are most likely behind the dry line
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle where
strong downslope flow is expected, confidence is currently too low
to introduce 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions.
Additionally, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions
were expanded into portions of Oklahoma based on the latest ensemble
guidance, where a dry return flow regime is forecast.
Confidence is a bit lower Day 4/Tuesday across the Central Plains,
with ensemble guidance offering differing solutions for the
evolution of a developing surface cyclone in the lee of the Laramie
Range. While critical probabilities were not introduced with this
outlook, fire weather conditions are possible depending on the
evolution/strength of the cyclone.
Run-to-run model variability has increased somewhat for Day
5/Wednesday, with impactful differences in the strength and
positioning of the surface low through the day over the Southern
Plains. In turn, this decreases confidence in critical fire weather
highlights across the area. Nevertheless, the 40% probability for
Critical fire weather conditions was maintained as at least elevated
fire weather conditions appear likely across much of the area.
...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern/Central Plains...
Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 6/Thursday and into the
next weekend, which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities
beyond Day 5/Wednesday. Nonetheless, the mid/upper-level pattern
continues to favor broad troughing across the CONUS, with enhanced
mid-level flow and multiple short-wave impulses crossing the central
United States. This flow pattern coupled with ongoing drought
conditions (and little-to-no forecast rainfall) suggest fire weather
conditions will likely linger across portions of the plains through
at least Day 8/Saturday.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 011200Z
An active fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the
Florida Peninsula and the Southern/Central Plains through much of
the extended forecast period. For Day 3/Monday, a mid/upper-level
ridge is forecast over the Southwest with a mid/upper-level trough
over the Southeast. Thereafter, the Southwest ridge is forecast to
flatten while broad troughing (and enhanced mid-level flow) develops
across much of the CONUS. At the surface, portions of Florida will
remain in a very dry post-frontal regime Day 3/Monday while episodic
lee surface trough strengthening occurs across the Central Plains
Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday.
...Day 3/Monday: Florida Peninsula and Southern Georgia...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are probable early
Day 3/Monday morning across portions of the Florida Peninsula due to
very poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering post-frontal
breeziness. Although daytime temperatures will be relatively cool
behind the front, critical conditions appear likely across portions
of the Florida Peninsula (where 70% probabilities for Critical fire
weather conditions have been introduced) due to the combination of
low-to-extremely-low minimum RH values, strong northerly
post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought
conditions.
...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains...
Relatively dry southerly/southwesterly return flow is forecast to
increase across the southern Plains Day 3/Monday as lee troughing
strengthens, which should promote Elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of eastern New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and far western Oklahoma.
Fire weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread Day
4/Tuesday across the southern Plains as strong mid-level flow
remains in place and the lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
gradient strengthens further while developing southward. While
critical fire weather conditions are most likely behind the dry line
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle where
strong downslope flow is expected, confidence is currently too low
to introduce 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions.
Additionally, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions
were expanded into portions of Oklahoma based on the latest ensemble
guidance, where a dry return flow regime is forecast.
Confidence is a bit lower Day 4/Tuesday across the Central Plains,
with ensemble guidance offering differing solutions for the
evolution of a developing surface cyclone in the lee of the Laramie
Range. While critical probabilities were not introduced with this
outlook, fire weather conditions are possible depending on the
evolution/strength of the cyclone.
Run-to-run model variability has increased somewhat for Day
5/Wednesday, with impactful differences in the strength and
positioning of the surface low through the day over the Southern
Plains. In turn, this decreases confidence in critical fire weather
highlights across the area. Nevertheless, the 40% probability for
Critical fire weather conditions was maintained as at least elevated
fire weather conditions appear likely across much of the area.
...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern/Central Plains...
Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 6/Thursday and into the
next weekend, which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities
beyond Day 5/Wednesday. Nonetheless, the mid/upper-level pattern
continues to favor broad troughing across the CONUS, with enhanced
mid-level flow and multiple short-wave impulses crossing the central
United States. This flow pattern coupled with ongoing drought
conditions (and little-to-no forecast rainfall) suggest fire weather
conditions will likely linger across portions of the plains through
at least Day 8/Saturday.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.
...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.
...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.
...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely
beginning around midday tomorrow (Sunday) and continuing through the
overnight across portions of southern Georgia and the Florida
Peninsula, where dry/breezy post-frontal conditions overlap
receptive fuels. The primary change with this forecast update was to
expand the Elevated fire weather area further south across much of
the remainder of the Florida Peninsula. Here, the latest high
resolution ensemble guidance suggests elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions are likely from tomorrow evening into Monday
morning due to very poor overnight recoveries and lingering
breeziness. While an upgrade to Critical was considered, confidence
was a bit too low due to the potential for some light rainfall
along/ahead of the front early Sunday.
While elevated to locally critical fire weather meteorological
conditions are also likely across much of the remainder of the
Southeast in a dry and breezy post-frontal environment, wetting
rainfall today/tomorrow associated with the cold front casts
considerable uncertainty on fuel receptiveness in the immediate wake
of the front. Nevertheless, model guidance continues to suggest a
relative minimum in precipitation across portions of Louisiana and
the Mississippi Gulf Coast. With limited precipitation, Elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions appear likely in these
areas due to sustained winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values less
than 35% overlapping receptive fuels.
An expansion of the Elevated areas and/or upgrades to Critical may
be needed across the Southeast once precipitation amounts and
locations are realized.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
As a cold front moves off the Atlantic/Gulf coasts, dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions are forecast across much of the Southeast on
Sunday. Relative humidity could get as low as 25%-30% across
portions of northern Florida currently experiencing drought, with
winds reaching 15-20 MPH. These conditions will support Elevated
concerns for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon
Sunday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely
beginning around midday tomorrow (Sunday) and continuing through the
overnight across portions of southern Georgia and the Florida
Peninsula, where dry/breezy post-frontal conditions overlap
receptive fuels. The primary change with this forecast update was to
expand the Elevated fire weather area further south across much of
the remainder of the Florida Peninsula. Here, the latest high
resolution ensemble guidance suggests elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions are likely from tomorrow evening into Monday
morning due to very poor overnight recoveries and lingering
breeziness. While an upgrade to Critical was considered, confidence
was a bit too low due to the potential for some light rainfall
along/ahead of the front early Sunday.
While elevated to locally critical fire weather meteorological
conditions are also likely across much of the remainder of the
Southeast in a dry and breezy post-frontal environment, wetting
rainfall today/tomorrow associated with the cold front casts
considerable uncertainty on fuel receptiveness in the immediate wake
of the front. Nevertheless, model guidance continues to suggest a
relative minimum in precipitation across portions of Louisiana and
the Mississippi Gulf Coast. With limited precipitation, Elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions appear likely in these
areas due to sustained winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values less
than 35% overlapping receptive fuels.
An expansion of the Elevated areas and/or upgrades to Critical may
be needed across the Southeast once precipitation amounts and
locations are realized.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
As a cold front moves off the Atlantic/Gulf coasts, dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions are forecast across much of the Southeast on
Sunday. Relative humidity could get as low as 25%-30% across
portions of northern Florida currently experiencing drought, with
winds reaching 15-20 MPH. These conditions will support Elevated
concerns for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon
Sunday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will intensify rapidly over the Eastern US,
helping deepen a significant surface cyclone off the New England
Coast. At the same time, ridging will build over the western and
central US. As the mid-level pattern amplifies, a strong cold front
associated with the East Coast low will sweep offshore scouring
low-level moisture from much of the continent. In its wake, a cool
and dry air mass will settle over much of the country, suppressing
thunderstorm activity.
..Lyons.. 02/21/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will intensify rapidly over the Eastern US,
helping deepen a significant surface cyclone off the New England
Coast. At the same time, ridging will build over the western and
central US. As the mid-level pattern amplifies, a strong cold front
associated with the East Coast low will sweep offshore scouring
low-level moisture from much of the continent. In its wake, a cool
and dry air mass will settle over much of the country, suppressing
thunderstorm activity.
..Lyons.. 02/21/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across
coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts and
over western Washington State. Severe weather potential is low.
...Discussion...
A mid-level trough over the lower Great Lakes is expected to rapidly
intensify as several smaller perturbations merge with the main
trough and western US ridging develops Sunday. A 100+ kt jet streak
will round the base of the trough and move over the Atlantic coast
through midday Sunday. Increasing large-scale ascent will aid in
rapid cyclogenesis off the NC Coast. The resulting mass response
will surge a cold front southward over portions of the FL Peninsula.
Ahead of the front, a narrow ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between
500 and 1000 J/kg should develop with daytime heating ahead of the
southward advancing front. This may support convective showers and a
few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across portions of central and
southern FL. However, warming/drying mid-levels and the departure of
stronger mid-level forcing for ascent should tend to limit lightning
coverage with southward extent into later Sunday
Across the Carolinas, mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts,
intense surface cyclogenesis will support very strong low-level warm
advection. The strong ascent may result in enough elevated
instability (100-200 J/kg) and intense precipitation rates to
support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt of the
Nor'easter as the low lifts northward along the coast Sunday night
into early Monday.
Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection
associated with another upper-trough may support shallow convection
along and off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula. While coverage
should remain relatively low, cold mid-level temperatures and the
strong ascent could support a few lightning flashes through Sunday
evening.
..Lyons.. 02/21/2026
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
... Discussion ...
As the East Coast cyclone departs on Monday, a cool, dry airmass
will settle over much of the country, suppressing thunderstorm
activity.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
As a cold front moves off the Atlantic/Gulf coasts, dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions are forecast across much of the Southeast on
Sunday. Relative humidity could get as low as 25%-30% across
portions of northern Florida currently experiencing drought, with
winds reaching 15-20 MPH. These conditions will support Elevated
concerns for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon
Sunday.
..Halbert.. 02/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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