Storm Prediction Center

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E AAF TO 40 SSE TLH TO 35 S VLD TO 20 NNE VLD AND 45 ESE AAF TO 40 SSE TLH TO 35 S VLD TO 20 NNE VLD. ..DEAN..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-067-123-152040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE LAFAYETTE TAYLOR GAC173-185-152040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LANIER LOWNDES GMZ730-765-152040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM Read more

WW 8 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 151335Z - 152000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 8 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 835 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Southeast Alabama Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 835 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east across the Watch through the morning and into the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes over the Watch area. The risk for damaging wind gusts (60-70 mph) will likely concentrate near inflections and cellular portions of the squall line. A few mesovortices are also possible and may yield a threat for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Panama City FL to 15 miles north of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low. ...Discussion... Continued cold air advection aloft over the relatively warm waters of the eastern Pacific will continue to support thunderstorm activity along the coastal areas on Tuesday from Oregon to southern California. Thunderstorm activity may spread inland across central California where some warming may lead to a pocket of greater instability in the central Valley. A large cyclone will emerge across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Moisture will be somewhat limited given the cold front currently scouring moisture across the Gulf. However, forecast guidance does show sufficient moistening around 850mb to support some elevated instability by Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Given the strong isentropic ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday evening. However, the limited moisture will keep instability weak. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low. ...Discussion... Continued cold air advection aloft over the relatively warm waters of the eastern Pacific will continue to support thunderstorm activity along the coastal areas on Tuesday from Oregon to southern California. Thunderstorm activity may spread inland across central California where some warming may lead to a pocket of greater instability in the central Valley. A large cyclone will emerge across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Moisture will be somewhat limited given the cold front currently scouring moisture across the Gulf. However, forecast guidance does show sufficient moistening around 850mb to support some elevated instability by Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Given the strong isentropic ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday evening. However, the limited moisture will keep instability weak. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low. ...Discussion... Continued cold air advection aloft over the relatively warm waters of the eastern Pacific will continue to support thunderstorm activity along the coastal areas on Tuesday from Oregon to southern California. Thunderstorm activity may spread inland across central California where some warming may lead to a pocket of greater instability in the central Valley. A large cyclone will emerge across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Moisture will be somewhat limited given the cold front currently scouring moisture across the Gulf. However, forecast guidance does show sufficient moistening around 850mb to support some elevated instability by Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Given the strong isentropic ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday evening. However, the limited moisture will keep instability weak. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2026 Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0009 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH GA INTO NORTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Areas affected...Parts of south GA into north FL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151709Z - 151845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will develop later this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A QLCS has continued to become better organized late this morning from southwest GA into the FL Panhandle, with some earlier reported wind damage and occasional embedded circulations noted on radar. The downstream environment into southeast GA and the northern FL Peninsula is currently rather dry and stable. However, continued diurnal heating will result in temperatures warming through the 70s F, while continued low-level moisture transport will allow dewpoints to rise into the 60s F. MLCAPE is expected to increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range (locally greater where stronger heating occurs) ahead of the ongoing QLCS, supporting maintenance and potential intensification of this system as it moves eastward. While some veering of low-level flow is expected with time, strong deep-layer flow will continue to result in favorable wind profiles, with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 expected to persist ahead of the QLCS. Persist bowing segments and embedded mesocyclones will pose a threat of damaging wind and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. A couple semi-discrete cells may eventually develop along the southern periphery of the QLCS, which could pose some threat of all severe hazards (including hail), though this scenario is more uncertain. As ongoing convection begins to approach the eastern portion of WW 8, downstream Tornado Watch issuance into parts of southeast GA and north FL is expected this afternoon. ..Dean/Gleason.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29208305 30898320 31918319 32238264 32128209 31918160 31288137 29948116 29828112 28938170 28738200 28598250 28718290 29208305 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW AAF TO 10 NW AAF TO 15 SW TLH TO 20 NNE TLH TO 15 N MGR TO 40 S MCN. ..DEAN..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-037-065-067-073-079-123-129-151940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE FRANKLIN JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC017-019-027-075-155-173-185-275-277-151940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COOK IRWIN LANIER LOWNDES THOMAS TIFT GMZ730-752-755-765-151940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas and perhaps parts of the Central Valley on Monday. These storms will be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough and associated mid-level jet streak will impact southern California on Monday with an amplifying ridge across the central CONUS. The southern stream trough across southern California will merge with a northern stream trough across the Northwest during the day Monday. Therefore, a surface low which will move onshore along the southern/central California coast on Monday morning/early afternoon will combine with the northern surface low and result in a very strong surface low centered over the northern Rockies by the end of the period. ...Southern California... Low-level moisture advection will lead to weak destabilization off the southern California coast Monday morning and into the early afternoon. Most CAM guidance indicates strengthening convection along the front as it approaches the coast. A strong low-level jet and some low-level hodograph curvature may support some damaging winds and potential for a QLCS tornado or two. The primary limiting factor will be the relatively shallow nature of the instability. Some areas within the line may not even produce lightning, but given the convective nature of the line and the strong wind profile, a marginal risk is warranted. ...Central California... In the wake of the initial precipitation surge, cooling temperatures aloft and perhaps some heating in the Central Valley may result in a brief window during the afternoon which may favor a few stronger storms. This threat would be confined to a narrow area, but HRRR forecast soundings between 21-22Z show some weak instability, moderately steep lapse rates, and around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. The 2% tornado probabilities have been maintained for this limited duration threat. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas and perhaps parts of the Central Valley on Monday. These storms will be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough and associated mid-level jet streak will impact southern California on Monday with an amplifying ridge across the central CONUS. The southern stream trough across southern California will merge with a northern stream trough across the Northwest during the day Monday. Therefore, a surface low which will move onshore along the southern/central California coast on Monday morning/early afternoon will combine with the northern surface low and result in a very strong surface low centered over the northern Rockies by the end of the period. ...Southern California... Low-level moisture advection will lead to weak destabilization off the southern California coast Monday morning and into the early afternoon. Most CAM guidance indicates strengthening convection along the front as it approaches the coast. A strong low-level jet and some low-level hodograph curvature may support some damaging winds and potential for a QLCS tornado or two. The primary limiting factor will be the relatively shallow nature of the instability. Some areas within the line may not even produce lightning, but given the convective nature of the line and the strong wind profile, a marginal risk is warranted. ...Central California... In the wake of the initial precipitation surge, cooling temperatures aloft and perhaps some heating in the Central Valley may result in a brief window during the afternoon which may favor a few stronger storms. This threat would be confined to a narrow area, but HRRR forecast soundings between 21-22Z show some weak instability, moderately steep lapse rates, and around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. The 2% tornado probabilities have been maintained for this limited duration threat. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas and perhaps parts of the Central Valley on Monday. These storms will be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough and associated mid-level jet streak will impact southern California on Monday with an amplifying ridge across the central CONUS. The southern stream trough across southern California will merge with a northern stream trough across the Northwest during the day Monday. Therefore, a surface low which will move onshore along the southern/central California coast on Monday morning/early afternoon will combine with the northern surface low and result in a very strong surface low centered over the northern Rockies by the end of the period. ...Southern California... Low-level moisture advection will lead to weak destabilization off the southern California coast Monday morning and into the early afternoon. Most CAM guidance indicates strengthening convection along the front as it approaches the coast. A strong low-level jet and some low-level hodograph curvature may support some damaging winds and potential for a QLCS tornado or two. The primary limiting factor will be the relatively shallow nature of the instability. Some areas within the line may not even produce lightning, but given the convective nature of the line and the strong wind profile, a marginal risk is warranted. ...Central California... In the wake of the initial precipitation surge, cooling temperatures aloft and perhaps some heating in the Central Valley may result in a brief window during the afternoon which may favor a few stronger storms. This threat would be confined to a narrow area, but HRRR forecast soundings between 21-22Z show some weak instability, moderately steep lapse rates, and around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. The 2% tornado probabilities have been maintained for this limited duration threat. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT BORDER OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Northern and Central Plains... Only slight modifications to existing Critical and Elevated Highlights were needed for portions of the northern and central Plains. Critical fire weather conditions including sustained west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH falling to around 15% are most likely across northwestern NE today. Accelerating westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface low across the Dakotas will bring dry and breezy conditions to the area. Farther west, increasing high-level cloud cover could limit surface RH reductions and across southeastern WY, but a locally critical fire weather threat still exists in favorable downslope areas in the lee of the Laramie Mountains where sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A more transient and localized elevated fire weather threat exists across portions of the Southern Plains today. Dry return flow in response to a deepening lee trough across the southern/central High Plains should bring about southwest winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-20% across eastern NM and portions of the TX Panhandle. Short duration of the dry and breezy conditions along with marginally dry fuels and increasing upper-level clouds should limit a broader fire weather impact this afternoon across the southern High Plains. ..Williams.. 02/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the mountains. In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT BORDER OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Northern and Central Plains... Only slight modifications to existing Critical and Elevated Highlights were needed for portions of the northern and central Plains. Critical fire weather conditions including sustained west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH falling to around 15% are most likely across northwestern NE today. Accelerating westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface low across the Dakotas will bring dry and breezy conditions to the area. Farther west, increasing high-level cloud cover could limit surface RH reductions and across southeastern WY, but a locally critical fire weather threat still exists in favorable downslope areas in the lee of the Laramie Mountains where sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A more transient and localized elevated fire weather threat exists across portions of the Southern Plains today. Dry return flow in response to a deepening lee trough across the southern/central High Plains should bring about southwest winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-20% across eastern NM and portions of the TX Panhandle. Short duration of the dry and breezy conditions along with marginally dry fuels and increasing upper-level clouds should limit a broader fire weather impact this afternoon across the southern High Plains. ..Williams.. 02/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the mountains. In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT BORDER OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Northern and Central Plains... Only slight modifications to existing Critical and Elevated Highlights were needed for portions of the northern and central Plains. Critical fire weather conditions including sustained west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH falling to around 15% are most likely across northwestern NE today. Accelerating westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface low across the Dakotas will bring dry and breezy conditions to the area. Farther west, increasing high-level cloud cover could limit surface RH reductions and across southeastern WY, but a locally critical fire weather threat still exists in favorable downslope areas in the lee of the Laramie Mountains where sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A more transient and localized elevated fire weather threat exists across portions of the Southern Plains today. Dry return flow in response to a deepening lee trough across the southern/central High Plains should bring about southwest winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-20% across eastern NM and portions of the TX Panhandle. Short duration of the dry and breezy conditions along with marginally dry fuels and increasing upper-level clouds should limit a broader fire weather impact this afternoon across the southern High Plains. ..Williams.. 02/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the mountains. In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur. ...Southeast... A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and southwest GA. This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength. Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance. With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests additional strong convection may develop across these areas in closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough. Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur. ...Southeast... A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and southwest GA. This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength. Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance. With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests additional strong convection may develop across these areas in closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough. Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur. ...Southeast... A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and southwest GA. This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength. Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance. With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests additional strong convection may develop across these areas in closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough. Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/15/2026 Read more

MD 0085 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 8... FOR PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND INTO SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle/Big Bend into southwest GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 8... Valid 151612Z - 151745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues. SUMMARY...Some increase in the damaging-wind and localized tornado threat is expected into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS has intensified somewhat this morning over the FL Panhandle and adjacent coastal waters, with deeper updrafts and an increase in lightning activity noted over the last 2-3 hours. This QLCS will continue to move eastward into early afternoon, in advance of a deep-layer cyclone moving across central/northern MS/AL. While the primary cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken through the day, low-level and deep-layer shear are expected to remain strong across the warm sector into this afternoon. Inland buoyancy is currently weak (with MLCAPE of near/below 500 J/kg), but some additional destabilization is expected with time from the FL Panhandle/Big Bend into southwest GA, due to filtered heating and continued low-level moisture transport. The strong flow and effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2 will continue to support potential for persistent bowing segments and embedded mesovortices, with an attendant threat of strong/damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. ..Dean.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30158523 30888473 31388437 31758394 31688332 31448313 30768313 29718336 29688421 29378505 29578541 30158523 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PNS TO 20 SW MAI TO 15 ENE DHN TO 40 SSW CSG. ..DEAN..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-151640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-065-073-077-079-123-129-133-151640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177- 185-201-205-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-151640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PNS TO 20 SW MAI TO 15 ENE DHN TO 40 SSW CSG. ..DEAN..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-151640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-065-073-077-079-123-129-133-151640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177- 185-201-205-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-151640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more