Storm Prediction Center

MD 0089 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Areas affected...Portions of the southern California Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161329Z - 161530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Weak convective showers may pose a threat for waterspouts and damaging winds along portions of the southern California coast through mid-morning. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KVBX shows shallow convective cells moving northward ahead of an eastward migrating convective band within a narrow plume of warm air advection. Several of these cells show weak rotation per velocity imagery, and while too shallow for substantial lightning production, may be capable of brief/weak waterspouts given nearly 450 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled by the nearby KVBX VWP. These cells will gradually approach the coastline of western Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties in the next few hours and may pose a risk of waterspouts and damaging winds along the shore. This threat is expected to remain fairly spatially limited to coastal areas given very limited buoyancy further inland, at least for the next few hours before cold temperatures aloft spread east. Regardless, the spatial/temporal threat will likely remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Smith.. 02/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOX... LAT...LON 34412047 34542066 34642067 34862064 35062066 35182085 35292097 35442104 35622103 35692089 35622074 35212042 34862025 34662010 34472005 34422016 34412047 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Coastal central into southern CA... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA through the evening. Within the base of the trough, an intense cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight. In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening. An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts. Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the broader rain shield. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it dissipates by early evening. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA... Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the immediate coast. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Coastal central into southern CA... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA through the evening. Within the base of the trough, an intense cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight. In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening. An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts. Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the broader rain shield. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it dissipates by early evening. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA... Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the immediate coast. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Coastal central into southern CA... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA through the evening. Within the base of the trough, an intense cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight. In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening. An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts. Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the broader rain shield. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it dissipates by early evening. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA... Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the immediate coast. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Coastal central into southern CA... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA through the evening. Within the base of the trough, an intense cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight. In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening. An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts. Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the broader rain shield. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it dissipates by early evening. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA... Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the immediate coast. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening. It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear. By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening. It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear. By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a near 120 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the central into southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting rapid surface low deepening over the central/northern Plains by afternoon. Combined isallobaric and downslope flow along the High Plains will result in a strong westerly surface wind field amid a drying boundary layer, atop dry fuels, promoting potentially dangerous conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread. ...Central High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, as a surface low deepens over the central to northern High Plains, sustained westerly surface winds should strengthen to at least the 25-35 mph range as RH drops to at least 15-20 percent over most locales, necessitating Critical highlights. Guidance consensus depicts a belt of 30+ mph sustained surface winds, with higher gusts, over northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska, and extreme northwestern Kansas, with RH likely dipping to at least 15 percent. Currently, guidance suggests that the primary mid-level jet and accompanying cloud cover should pass this region to the south. As such, adequate boundary layer mixing should support the aforementioned surface conditions, and when also considering the very dry fuels in place (i.e. 90th percentile ERCs), the addition of Extremely Critical highlights appears warranted. Even if RH does not dip below 20 percent, the combination of such strong winds and critically dry fuels should compensate to support volatile wildfire-spread conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Sustained west-southwesterly surface winds in the 25-40 mph range should become established across much of the southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon as the 120 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. Considerable cloud cover should accompany the jet streak, lending uncertainty to the degree of RH reductions over the southern High Plains. Some guidance hints at RH only dipping to 25-35 percent over extreme eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle. Even so, the strength of the anticipated surface wind field atop cured fuels devoid of recent precipitation alone warrants the introduction of at least Critical highlights. RH should drop to at least 20 to perhaps 15 percent along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border, promoting high-end Critical fire weather conditions. If confidence increases in further RH reductions over this area, Extremely Critical highlights may need to be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a near 120 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the central into southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting rapid surface low deepening over the central/northern Plains by afternoon. Combined isallobaric and downslope flow along the High Plains will result in a strong westerly surface wind field amid a drying boundary layer, atop dry fuels, promoting potentially dangerous conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread. ...Central High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, as a surface low deepens over the central to northern High Plains, sustained westerly surface winds should strengthen to at least the 25-35 mph range as RH drops to at least 15-20 percent over most locales, necessitating Critical highlights. Guidance consensus depicts a belt of 30+ mph sustained surface winds, with higher gusts, over northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska, and extreme northwestern Kansas, with RH likely dipping to at least 15 percent. Currently, guidance suggests that the primary mid-level jet and accompanying cloud cover should pass this region to the south. As such, adequate boundary layer mixing should support the aforementioned surface conditions, and when also considering the very dry fuels in place (i.e. 90th percentile ERCs), the addition of Extremely Critical highlights appears warranted. Even if RH does not dip below 20 percent, the combination of such strong winds and critically dry fuels should compensate to support volatile wildfire-spread conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Sustained west-southwesterly surface winds in the 25-40 mph range should become established across much of the southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon as the 120 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. Considerable cloud cover should accompany the jet streak, lending uncertainty to the degree of RH reductions over the southern High Plains. Some guidance hints at RH only dipping to 25-35 percent over extreme eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle. Even so, the strength of the anticipated surface wind field atop cured fuels devoid of recent precipitation alone warrants the introduction of at least Critical highlights. RH should drop to at least 20 to perhaps 15 percent along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border, promoting high-end Critical fire weather conditions. If confidence increases in further RH reductions over this area, Extremely Critical highlights may need to be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for thunderstorm development generally low. ...Discussion... An initial mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region by the beginning of this period are forecast to undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to support continuing convective development capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday. However, this potential is not readily evident in available NAM forecast soundings, and thunderstorm probabilities are probably near the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area. Upstream, substantive spread is evident in the latest model output concerning short wave developments within amplified mid/upper troughing near the Pacific coast. It does appear that one emerging perturbation may support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through Wednesday night. However, modest inland moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer is generally forecast to be focused east of the lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast, within a broad belt of south to southwesterly flow around low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for thunderstorm development generally low. ...Discussion... An initial mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region by the beginning of this period are forecast to undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to support continuing convective development capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday. However, this potential is not readily evident in available NAM forecast soundings, and thunderstorm probabilities are probably near the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area. Upstream, substantive spread is evident in the latest model output concerning short wave developments within amplified mid/upper troughing near the Pacific coast. It does appear that one emerging perturbation may support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through Wednesday night. However, modest inland moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer is generally forecast to be focused east of the lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast, within a broad belt of south to southwesterly flow around low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Mississippi Valley as a pronounced mid-level trough impinges on the Rockies today. As this occurs, strong surface lee troughing will encourage widespread 15+ mph sustained southerly winds over the central and southern High Plains for much of the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained over areas devoid of recent precipitation (hence dry fuels), and where RH will dip below 20 percent for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Mississippi Valley as a pronounced mid-level trough impinges on the Rockies today. As this occurs, strong surface lee troughing will encourage widespread 15+ mph sustained southerly winds over the central and southern High Plains for much of the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained over areas devoid of recent precipitation (hence dry fuels), and where RH will dip below 20 percent for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone will weaken while migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday. However, an initially intense offshore jet is forecast to continue digging south-southeastward across California coastal areas to the south of San Francisco Bay, toward the lower Colorado Valley through late Tuesday night, contributing to the maintenance of amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. Downstream, a broad swath of seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast to continue developing east of the southern Rockies, across the south central Great Plains and Ohio Valley, as the remnants of preceding inland migrating troughing pivot across the northern Rockies and much of the middle/lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate that initially deep surface troughing accompanying this perturbation will begin to slowly weaken, but a broad belt of strong southwesterly low-level flow (including 40-50 kt around 850 mb) may be maintained while spreading from the central/southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday. To the west/northwest of the low-level jet axis, a plume of rather modest low-level moisture, including surface dew points in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s F, may advect from parts of the central Great Plains across and northeast of the lower/mid Missouri Valley, beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower Mississippi Valley. However, substantive Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland return flow still appears unlikely through this period and beyond. ...Pacific Coast... Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm development, seems likely to become focused across northern and central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper jet, which may provide support for stronger cells becoming capable of producing gusty winds and small hail, particularly near coastal areas around San Francisco Bay as early as midday Tuesday. It still appears that the lack of steeper lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and more substantive CAPE, may minimize the potential for storms to reach severe criteria, but this will continue to be monitored in later outlooks for this period. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Given at least limited low-level moisture return, it still appears that forcing for ascent may contribute to a corridor of thunderstorm development as strong mid-level height falls overspread the region late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Based on the latest forecast soundings and other model output, the potential for severe hail and strong surface gusts still appears rather low, but perhaps not entirely out of the question. This will continue to be monitored in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone will weaken while migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday. However, an initially intense offshore jet is forecast to continue digging south-southeastward across California coastal areas to the south of San Francisco Bay, toward the lower Colorado Valley through late Tuesday night, contributing to the maintenance of amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. Downstream, a broad swath of seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast to continue developing east of the southern Rockies, across the south central Great Plains and Ohio Valley, as the remnants of preceding inland migrating troughing pivot across the northern Rockies and much of the middle/lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate that initially deep surface troughing accompanying this perturbation will begin to slowly weaken, but a broad belt of strong southwesterly low-level flow (including 40-50 kt around 850 mb) may be maintained while spreading from the central/southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday. To the west/northwest of the low-level jet axis, a plume of rather modest low-level moisture, including surface dew points in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s F, may advect from parts of the central Great Plains across and northeast of the lower/mid Missouri Valley, beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower Mississippi Valley. However, substantive Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland return flow still appears unlikely through this period and beyond. ...Pacific Coast... Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm development, seems likely to become focused across northern and central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper jet, which may provide support for stronger cells becoming capable of producing gusty winds and small hail, particularly near coastal areas around San Francisco Bay as early as midday Tuesday. It still appears that the lack of steeper lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and more substantive CAPE, may minimize the potential for storms to reach severe criteria, but this will continue to be monitored in later outlooks for this period. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Given at least limited low-level moisture return, it still appears that forcing for ascent may contribute to a corridor of thunderstorm development as strong mid-level height falls overspread the region late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Based on the latest forecast soundings and other model output, the potential for severe hail and strong surface gusts still appears rather low, but perhaps not entirely out of the question. This will continue to be monitored in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone will weaken while migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday. However, an initially intense offshore jet is forecast to continue digging south-southeastward across California coastal areas to the south of San Francisco Bay, toward the lower Colorado Valley through late Tuesday night, contributing to the maintenance of amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. Downstream, a broad swath of seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast to continue developing east of the southern Rockies, across the south central Great Plains and Ohio Valley, as the remnants of preceding inland migrating troughing pivot across the northern Rockies and much of the middle/lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate that initially deep surface troughing accompanying this perturbation will begin to slowly weaken, but a broad belt of strong southwesterly low-level flow (including 40-50 kt around 850 mb) may be maintained while spreading from the central/southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday. To the west/northwest of the low-level jet axis, a plume of rather modest low-level moisture, including surface dew points in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s F, may advect from parts of the central Great Plains across and northeast of the lower/mid Missouri Valley, beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower Mississippi Valley. However, substantive Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland return flow still appears unlikely through this period and beyond. ...Pacific Coast... Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm development, seems likely to become focused across northern and central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper jet, which may provide support for stronger cells becoming capable of producing gusty winds and small hail, particularly near coastal areas around San Francisco Bay as early as midday Tuesday. It still appears that the lack of steeper lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and more substantive CAPE, may minimize the potential for storms to reach severe criteria, but this will continue to be monitored in later outlooks for this period. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Given at least limited low-level moisture return, it still appears that forcing for ascent may contribute to a corridor of thunderstorm development as strong mid-level height falls overspread the region late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Based on the latest forecast soundings and other model output, the potential for severe hail and strong surface gusts still appears rather low, but perhaps not entirely out of the question. This will continue to be monitored in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Coastal central into southern CA... A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA, with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line cannot be ruled out. ...Interior Valleys... It appears substantial precipitation will hamper heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low probabilities have been removed. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...Late... Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong wind gusts. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Coastal central into southern CA... A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA, with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line cannot be ruled out. ...Interior Valleys... It appears substantial precipitation will hamper heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low probabilities have been removed. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...Late... Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong wind gusts. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Coastal central into southern CA... A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA, with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line cannot be ruled out. ...Interior Valleys... It appears substantial precipitation will hamper heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low probabilities have been removed. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...Late... Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong wind gusts. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026 Read more

MD 0088 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0088 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Areas affected...Parts of north-central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160134Z - 160400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized risk of strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will continue for the next few hours across parts of north-central Florida. DISCUSSION...Clusters of mainly disorganized thunderstorms continue spreading/developing east-southeastward across north-central FL within a zone of low-level confluence and weak positive theta-e advection. Weak pre-convective buoyancy may continue to limit updraft intensity, though a narrow plume of middle/upper 60s dewpoints is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE closer to the coast. Despite the weak buoyancy, the TBW 00Z sounding and VWP are sampling strong low/deep-layer shear -- aided by a 40-50-kt southwesterly low-level jet and 60-70-kt midlevel flow. Enhanced low-level hodograph curvature (around 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) may favor transient circulations embedded within the clusters of storms as they continue east-southeastward, and locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out for the next few hours. Any severe risk is expected to remain too limited for a watch. ..Weinman/Hart.. 02/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 28938133 28808112 28648106 28378112 28098133 27848171 27568217 27478249 27508277 27718289 28008295 28358279 28928165 28938133 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more