Storm Prediction Center

MD 0082 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 7... FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...far southeast Louisiana and far southwest Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 7... Valid 150715Z - 150915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts and brief embedded circulations is expected to continue across portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley and into far southwest Alabama over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS continues to progress eastward across the lower MS River Valley per regional radar mosaics. KDGX imagery has sampled at least two tornadic debris signatures within the past hour on the northern flank of a bowing segment of the line where 0-1 km SRH is on the order of 400 m2/s2 per KDGX VWP observations. However, this section of the line is moving into a drier, less buoyant airmass, and lightning activity has been decreasing within the past 20-30 minutes. While brief circulations will remain possible in the near-term (next hour or so), a gradual weakening of the line is anticipated roughly along and north of Highway 84 in southern MS/southwest AL. Further south, more backed southerly winds imply slightly weaker low-level shear, but a recent 06 UTC sounding from LIX sampled around 280 m2/s2 effective SRH within a sufficiently buoyant air mass preceding the line. This environment will continue to support organized convection with the potential for strong/severe wind gusts and embedded mesovortices - especially where more meridional segments can become established within the line. Coastal surface observations show mid-60 dewpoints spreading as far east as the MS/AL border, suggesting that the downstream environment is favorable for maintaining the QLCS for several more hours along and just north of the coastline. ..Moore.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 29339104 29839059 30968982 31338968 31838979 32168995 32378989 32528970 32548925 32448876 32228846 31958832 31708825 31168816 30818815 30428824 30308846 30258872 30138887 29928912 29648940 29298980 29139007 29069045 29049069 29159104 29339104 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW HUM TO 15 E HUM TO 5 ENE ASD TO 10 SW PIB TO 25 WNW MEI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082 ..MOORE..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-053-097-129-150940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE ESCAMBIA MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC033-091-113-150940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA LAC051-071-075-087-150940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE 7R4 TO 35 NNW MSY TO 40 NE MCB TO 45 S GWO. ..MOORE..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-053-097-129-150740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE ESCAMBIA MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC033-091-113-150740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-105-109-117-150740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY Read more

MD 0081 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 6... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southern LA...southern MS...and far southwestern AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 6... Valid 150443Z - 150645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues. SUMMARY...A heightened tornado risk is evident over parts of southern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi in the near term -- within Tornado Watch #6. A downstream tornado watch will be issued within an hour. DISCUSSION...A squall line with embedded mesovorticies and supercell structures is tracking eastward across southern LA and southwestern MS tonight. The line is impinging on a corridor of middle/upper 60s dewpoints, which is yielding weakly unstable inflow for these storms. However, the low-level mass response accompanying an approaching midlevel trough continues to favor a 40-50 kt low-level jet and ample low-level hodograph curvature (around 350-400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per regional VWP). Given the well-established line of storms and this enhanced low-level helicity, a corridor of heightened tornado potential is evident across parts of southern LA into southwestern MS in the near term, and a strong tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. Thereafter, the squall line will continue eastward along a progressive cold front moving across southeastern LA, southern MS, and far southwestern AL -- where sufficient boundary-layer moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear will support a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes. A downstream tornado watch will be issued within an hour for this threat. ..Weinman/Hart.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29919212 30759176 31609125 31909026 31918920 31678840 31288789 30708778 30158795 29168882 29008914 28888979 28959113 29419208 29919212 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado, which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado, which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado, which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado, which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado, which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the mountains. In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the mountains. In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the mountains. In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the mountains. In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the mountains. In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Discussion... General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in prior model runs for this period continue. To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially significant downstream trough inland across California and much of the Great Basin by late Monday night. As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, models indicate that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains and Gulf Basin. At the same time, further lower tropospheric cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin, in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco Bay vicinity during the day Monday. ...Southern California coast... Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning. Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of near-surface wind fields. As this occurs, the environment may become conducive to the development of supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Central Valley... There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Discussion... General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in prior model runs for this period continue. To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially significant downstream trough inland across California and much of the Great Basin by late Monday night. As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, models indicate that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains and Gulf Basin. At the same time, further lower tropospheric cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin, in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco Bay vicinity during the day Monday. ...Southern California coast... Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning. Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of near-surface wind fields. As this occurs, the environment may become conducive to the development of supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Central Valley... There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Discussion... General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in prior model runs for this period continue. To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially significant downstream trough inland across California and much of the Great Basin by late Monday night. As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, models indicate that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains and Gulf Basin. At the same time, further lower tropospheric cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin, in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco Bay vicinity during the day Monday. ...Southern California coast... Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning. Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of near-surface wind fields. As this occurs, the environment may become conducive to the development of supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Central Valley... There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Discussion... General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in prior model runs for this period continue. To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially significant downstream trough inland across California and much of the Great Basin by late Monday night. As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, models indicate that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains and Gulf Basin. At the same time, further lower tropospheric cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin, in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco Bay vicinity during the day Monday. ...Southern California coast... Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning. Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of near-surface wind fields. As this occurs, the environment may become conducive to the development of supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Central Valley... There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Discussion... General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in prior model runs for this period continue. To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially significant downstream trough inland across California and much of the Great Basin by late Monday night. As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, models indicate that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains and Gulf Basin. At the same time, further lower tropospheric cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin, in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco Bay vicinity during the day Monday. ...Southern California coast... Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning. Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of near-surface wind fields. As this occurs, the environment may become conducive to the development of supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Central Valley... There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026 Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BVE TO 5 NE MOB TO 50 S TCL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083 ..MOORE..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-053-097-151140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE ESCAMBIA MOBILE FLC033-091-113-151140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-650-655-151140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more