SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of
north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most
likely.
...Discussions...
A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00
and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will
likely gradually reduce storm strength.
Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a
west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just
north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection
beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is
formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not
particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence
inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given
the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected
to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the
low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms
north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts.
A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the
strongly veering winds with height.
..Jewell.. 02/16/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of
north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most
likely.
...Discussions...
A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00
and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will
likely gradually reduce storm strength.
Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a
west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just
north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection
beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is
formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not
particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence
inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given
the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected
to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the
low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms
north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts.
A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the
strongly veering winds with height.
..Jewell.. 02/16/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of
north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most
likely.
...Discussions...
A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00
and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will
likely gradually reduce storm strength.
Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a
west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just
north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection
beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is
formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not
particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence
inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given
the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected
to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the
low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms
north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts.
A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the
strongly veering winds with height.
..Jewell.. 02/16/2026
Read more
WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W OCF TO
30 NNE SGJ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
..WEINMAN..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC035-075-083-107-109-152340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FLAGLER LEVY MARION
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
AMZ452-454-152340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
WW 9 TORNADO FL GA CW 151800Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 9
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Florida
Southern Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until
800 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will continue to move
quickly east-northeastward across parts of northern Florida and
southern Georgia this afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging
winds with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph should be the main threat, but
a couple of brief line-embedded tornadoes also appear possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Waycross GA to 30
miles south of Gainesville FL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 8...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 26040.
...Gleason
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Larger scale troughing is still expected to evolve across the
western U.S. by Day 3/Tuesday, lasting through Day 5/Thursday before
a more progressive wave pattern emerges late next week. Embedded
short waves and attendant jet cores along with stronger surface lee
cyclone development in the Plains will likely promote substantial
fire weather concerns across portions of the central and southern
Plains particularly on Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday. Longer
term model guidance depicts a transition to a building ridge across
the West over the weekend, with troughing promoting broader
northwest flow and intrusion of a cooler, stable air mass east of
the Continental Divide early next week.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
An approaching mid-level short wave and associated 100+ knot jet
streak arrives Day 3/Tuesday for the Southern Plains while a
pronounced surface lee trough/cyclone strengthens across the
northern High Plains. A broad fire weather threat is likely across
the central and southern Plains with 70% critical probabilities
expanded across eastern CO and western NE. A dry cold front and
subsequent west/northwest wind shift could further impact wildfire
spread should ignitions occur. Some uncertainty exists regarding RH
reductions across the southern High Plains as ample subtropical
moisture and cloud cover stream into the region from the southwest.
Critical fire weather conditions are more probable a bit farther
east into western OK and southern KS where additional boundary layer
mixing and drier fuels exist.
...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains...
Strong westerly flow aloft and evolving surface lee troughing in the
central High Plains should support another day of expanded fire
weather concerns across eastern CO and Southern Plains. Poor RH
recoveries leading into Day 4/Wednesday should further prime the
fuelscape for wildland fire spread. Some breaks in the cloud cover
across CO and the TX Panhandle should allow for a better mixing
environment as surface dewpoints drop into the teens coinciding with
breezy southwest winds. Critically low RH and stronger winds are
more likely across far eastern NM and TX/OK Panhandles Wednesday,
where a 70% critical area has been added.
...Day 5/Thursday - Southern Plains...
An embedded short wave and mid-level jet will support a broad
downslope drying regime across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Thursday. Another deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains
should promote an increasing fire weather threat farther eastern
into northern TX and western/central OK where 40% critical
probabilities have been expanded.
...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
Fire weather concerns could extend into Day 6/Friday across eastern
NM and west TX as a trailing mid-level short wave ejects into the
Southern Plains. Uncertainty in the timing of this mid-level feature
remains as increasing ensemble member spread reduces predictability
of fire weather impacts at this time. A reduced fire weather threat
is possible by the weekend as a colder more stable air mass filters
into the eastern U.S. under northwest flow aloft.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Larger scale troughing is still expected to evolve across the
western U.S. by Day 3/Tuesday, lasting through Day 5/Thursday before
a more progressive wave pattern emerges late next week. Embedded
short waves and attendant jet cores along with stronger surface lee
cyclone development in the Plains will likely promote substantial
fire weather concerns across portions of the central and southern
Plains particularly on Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday. Longer
term model guidance depicts a transition to a building ridge across
the West over the weekend, with troughing promoting broader
northwest flow and intrusion of a cooler, stable air mass east of
the Continental Divide early next week.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
An approaching mid-level short wave and associated 100+ knot jet
streak arrives Day 3/Tuesday for the Southern Plains while a
pronounced surface lee trough/cyclone strengthens across the
northern High Plains. A broad fire weather threat is likely across
the central and southern Plains with 70% critical probabilities
expanded across eastern CO and western NE. A dry cold front and
subsequent west/northwest wind shift could further impact wildfire
spread should ignitions occur. Some uncertainty exists regarding RH
reductions across the southern High Plains as ample subtropical
moisture and cloud cover stream into the region from the southwest.
Critical fire weather conditions are more probable a bit farther
east into western OK and southern KS where additional boundary layer
mixing and drier fuels exist.
...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains...
Strong westerly flow aloft and evolving surface lee troughing in the
central High Plains should support another day of expanded fire
weather concerns across eastern CO and Southern Plains. Poor RH
recoveries leading into Day 4/Wednesday should further prime the
fuelscape for wildland fire spread. Some breaks in the cloud cover
across CO and the TX Panhandle should allow for a better mixing
environment as surface dewpoints drop into the teens coinciding with
breezy southwest winds. Critically low RH and stronger winds are
more likely across far eastern NM and TX/OK Panhandles Wednesday,
where a 70% critical area has been added.
...Day 5/Thursday - Southern Plains...
An embedded short wave and mid-level jet will support a broad
downslope drying regime across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Thursday. Another deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains
should promote an increasing fire weather threat farther eastern
into northern TX and western/central OK where 40% critical
probabilities have been expanded.
...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
Fire weather concerns could extend into Day 6/Friday across eastern
NM and west TX as a trailing mid-level short wave ejects into the
Southern Plains. Uncertainty in the timing of this mid-level feature
remains as increasing ensemble member spread reduces predictability
of fire weather impacts at this time. A reduced fire weather threat
is possible by the weekend as a colder more stable air mass filters
into the eastern U.S. under northwest flow aloft.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Larger scale troughing is still expected to evolve across the
western U.S. by Day 3/Tuesday, lasting through Day 5/Thursday before
a more progressive wave pattern emerges late next week. Embedded
short waves and attendant jet cores along with stronger surface lee
cyclone development in the Plains will likely promote substantial
fire weather concerns across portions of the central and southern
Plains particularly on Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday. Longer
term model guidance depicts a transition to a building ridge across
the West over the weekend, with troughing promoting broader
northwest flow and intrusion of a cooler, stable air mass east of
the Continental Divide early next week.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
An approaching mid-level short wave and associated 100+ knot jet
streak arrives Day 3/Tuesday for the Southern Plains while a
pronounced surface lee trough/cyclone strengthens across the
northern High Plains. A broad fire weather threat is likely across
the central and southern Plains with 70% critical probabilities
expanded across eastern CO and western NE. A dry cold front and
subsequent west/northwest wind shift could further impact wildfire
spread should ignitions occur. Some uncertainty exists regarding RH
reductions across the southern High Plains as ample subtropical
moisture and cloud cover stream into the region from the southwest.
Critical fire weather conditions are more probable a bit farther
east into western OK and southern KS where additional boundary layer
mixing and drier fuels exist.
...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains...
Strong westerly flow aloft and evolving surface lee troughing in the
central High Plains should support another day of expanded fire
weather concerns across eastern CO and Southern Plains. Poor RH
recoveries leading into Day 4/Wednesday should further prime the
fuelscape for wildland fire spread. Some breaks in the cloud cover
across CO and the TX Panhandle should allow for a better mixing
environment as surface dewpoints drop into the teens coinciding with
breezy southwest winds. Critically low RH and stronger winds are
more likely across far eastern NM and TX/OK Panhandles Wednesday,
where a 70% critical area has been added.
...Day 5/Thursday - Southern Plains...
An embedded short wave and mid-level jet will support a broad
downslope drying regime across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Thursday. Another deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains
should promote an increasing fire weather threat farther eastern
into northern TX and western/central OK where 40% critical
probabilities have been expanded.
...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
Fire weather concerns could extend into Day 6/Friday across eastern
NM and west TX as a trailing mid-level short wave ejects into the
Southern Plains. Uncertainty in the timing of this mid-level feature
remains as increasing ensemble member spread reduces predictability
of fire weather impacts at this time. A reduced fire weather threat
is possible by the weekend as a colder more stable air mass filters
into the eastern U.S. under northwest flow aloft.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S VLD TO
35 W AYS TO 35 NE VDI.
..DEAN..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-075-083-089-107-109-121-
125-152140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL
FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON
LEVY MARION NASSAU
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE
UNION
GAC001-025-039-049-065-101-127-183-191-229-267-299-305-152140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING BRANTLEY CAMDEN
CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS
GLYNN LONG MCINTOSH
PIERCE TATTNALL WARE
WAYNE
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.
...20z Update...
A line of thunderstorms continues eastward into the eastern FL
Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula. Ahead of this line, dew points are
in the mid to upper 50s. MLCAPE remains somewhat weak inland, though
some slow increase is noted ahead of the line amid south-westerly
warm air advection and filtered daytime heating. Regardless of
weaker thermal profiles, strong upper level flow persists with deep
layer shear for organization remaining strong across the eastern FL
Panhandle into the northern FL Peninsula. The threat for strong
convection with potential for damaging wind and a tornado will
continue inland for the next few hours.
A Marginal Risk was maintained across portions of southern/central
Georgia where some redevelopment of thunderstorms is noted over the
last hour. The modestly unstable air mass ahead of this activity may
support potential for isolated damaging gusts through the afternoon.
..Thornton.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.
This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength.
Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.
With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.
Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.
...20z Update...
A line of thunderstorms continues eastward into the eastern FL
Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula. Ahead of this line, dew points are
in the mid to upper 50s. MLCAPE remains somewhat weak inland, though
some slow increase is noted ahead of the line amid south-westerly
warm air advection and filtered daytime heating. Regardless of
weaker thermal profiles, strong upper level flow persists with deep
layer shear for organization remaining strong across the eastern FL
Panhandle into the northern FL Peninsula. The threat for strong
convection with potential for damaging wind and a tornado will
continue inland for the next few hours.
A Marginal Risk was maintained across portions of southern/central
Georgia where some redevelopment of thunderstorms is noted over the
last hour. The modestly unstable air mass ahead of this activity may
support potential for isolated damaging gusts through the afternoon.
..Thornton.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.
This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength.
Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.
With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.
Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.
...20z Update...
A line of thunderstorms continues eastward into the eastern FL
Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula. Ahead of this line, dew points are
in the mid to upper 50s. MLCAPE remains somewhat weak inland, though
some slow increase is noted ahead of the line amid south-westerly
warm air advection and filtered daytime heating. Regardless of
weaker thermal profiles, strong upper level flow persists with deep
layer shear for organization remaining strong across the eastern FL
Panhandle into the northern FL Peninsula. The threat for strong
convection with potential for damaging wind and a tornado will
continue inland for the next few hours.
A Marginal Risk was maintained across portions of southern/central
Georgia where some redevelopment of thunderstorms is noted over the
last hour. The modestly unstable air mass ahead of this activity may
support potential for isolated damaging gusts through the afternoon.
..Thornton.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.
This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength.
Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.
With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.
Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.
...20z Update...
A line of thunderstorms continues eastward into the eastern FL
Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula. Ahead of this line, dew points are
in the mid to upper 50s. MLCAPE remains somewhat weak inland, though
some slow increase is noted ahead of the line amid south-westerly
warm air advection and filtered daytime heating. Regardless of
weaker thermal profiles, strong upper level flow persists with deep
layer shear for organization remaining strong across the eastern FL
Panhandle into the northern FL Peninsula. The threat for strong
convection with potential for damaging wind and a tornado will
continue inland for the next few hours.
A Marginal Risk was maintained across portions of southern/central
Georgia where some redevelopment of thunderstorms is noted over the
last hour. The modestly unstable air mass ahead of this activity may
support potential for isolated damaging gusts through the afternoon.
..Thornton.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.
This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength.
Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.
With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.
Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Southern and Central Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft on the nose of an approaching
mid-level jet along with surface troughing in the lee of the
southern Rockies will support breezy and dry conditions across
portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. Sufficient
mixing of a dry boundary layer despite some high clouds should
encourage stronger south/southwest winds of 15-20 mph to develop
across the region in addition to low relative humidity around 15%
(locally 10%). A locally critical fire weather threat exists across
far northeast NM, western TX Panhandle and favored terrain gaps in
the lee of the southern Rockies where winds of 20-25 mph are
possible. Elevated highlights were maintained across portions of
northeastern NM, TX Panhandle and far southwest KS where fuels are
more receptive. A northward expansion of elevated fire weather
highlights was made into the Palmer Divide area and adjacent
foothills of the Rockies in CO given latest model guidance.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through
the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the
associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In
response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado,
which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong
vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here,
winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of
dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and
southwestern Kansas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Southern and Central Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft on the nose of an approaching
mid-level jet along with surface troughing in the lee of the
southern Rockies will support breezy and dry conditions across
portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. Sufficient
mixing of a dry boundary layer despite some high clouds should
encourage stronger south/southwest winds of 15-20 mph to develop
across the region in addition to low relative humidity around 15%
(locally 10%). A locally critical fire weather threat exists across
far northeast NM, western TX Panhandle and favored terrain gaps in
the lee of the southern Rockies where winds of 20-25 mph are
possible. Elevated highlights were maintained across portions of
northeastern NM, TX Panhandle and far southwest KS where fuels are
more receptive. A northward expansion of elevated fire weather
highlights was made into the Palmer Divide area and adjacent
foothills of the Rockies in CO given latest model guidance.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through
the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the
associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In
response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado,
which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong
vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here,
winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of
dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and
southwestern Kansas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Southern and Central Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft on the nose of an approaching
mid-level jet along with surface troughing in the lee of the
southern Rockies will support breezy and dry conditions across
portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. Sufficient
mixing of a dry boundary layer despite some high clouds should
encourage stronger south/southwest winds of 15-20 mph to develop
across the region in addition to low relative humidity around 15%
(locally 10%). A locally critical fire weather threat exists across
far northeast NM, western TX Panhandle and favored terrain gaps in
the lee of the southern Rockies where winds of 20-25 mph are
possible. Elevated highlights were maintained across portions of
northeastern NM, TX Panhandle and far southwest KS where fuels are
more receptive. A northward expansion of elevated fire weather
highlights was made into the Palmer Divide area and adjacent
foothills of the Rockies in CO given latest model guidance.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through
the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the
associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In
response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado,
which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong
vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here,
winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of
dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and
southwestern Kansas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Southern and Central Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft on the nose of an approaching
mid-level jet along with surface troughing in the lee of the
southern Rockies will support breezy and dry conditions across
portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. Sufficient
mixing of a dry boundary layer despite some high clouds should
encourage stronger south/southwest winds of 15-20 mph to develop
across the region in addition to low relative humidity around 15%
(locally 10%). A locally critical fire weather threat exists across
far northeast NM, western TX Panhandle and favored terrain gaps in
the lee of the southern Rockies where winds of 20-25 mph are
possible. Elevated highlights were maintained across portions of
northeastern NM, TX Panhandle and far southwest KS where fuels are
more receptive. A northward expansion of elevated fire weather
highlights was made into the Palmer Divide area and adjacent
foothills of the Rockies in CO given latest model guidance.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through
the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the
associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In
response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado,
which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong
vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here,
winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of
dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and
southwestern Kansas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E AAF TO
40 SSE TLH TO 35 S VLD TO 20 NNE VLD AND 45 ESE AAF TO 40 SSE TLH
TO 35 S VLD TO 20 NNE VLD.
..DEAN..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC029-067-123-152040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIXIE LAFAYETTE TAYLOR
GAC173-185-152040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LANIER LOWNDES
GMZ730-765-152040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
Read more
WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E AAF TO
40 SSE TLH TO 35 S VLD TO 20 NNE VLD AND 45 ESE AAF TO 40 SSE TLH
TO 35 S VLD TO 20 NNE VLD.
..DEAN..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC029-067-123-152040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIXIE LAFAYETTE TAYLOR
GAC173-185-152040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LANIER LOWNDES
GMZ730-765-152040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
Read more
