Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Strong and persistent westerly flow aloft and surface troughing across the Central Plains should keep a fire weather threat in place over portions of the Southern Plains Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. Troughing shifts into the eastern U.S. over the weekend while upper-level ridging builds into the central U.S. by early next week. An initial surge of drier, northerly flow east of the Continental Divide could bring fire weather concerns to the portions of the southern Plains on Day 6/Saturday and perhaps the Southeast and FL on Day 7/Sunday. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday as a mid-level jet overspreads the region while a surface cyclone deepens in eastern CO. Less cloud cover should yield a better boundary layer mixing environment overall across the Southern Plains. A corridor of strong southwesterly flow, relative humidity perhaps below 10 percent and dry fuels are expected from southeastern NM northeastward into southeastern CO and southwestern KS. 70 percent Critical probabilities were appreciably expanded, encompassing much of the Southern Plains for Wednesday. Enhanced westerly winds south of a surface low over the Upper Midwest are likely across the Corn Belt region on Wednesday, although some precipitation Wednesday morning could mitigate a broader fire weather threat. Minimal rainfall over the past several weeks has contributed to drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall coverage and magnitude precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Thursday - Southern Plains... Strong mid-level flow will continue over the southern/central Plains while a deepening surface low moves into the Midwest Day 4/Thursday. As a result, dry and breezy conditions should be maintained across much of the Southern Plains. Extended 40 percent critical probabilities eastward into OK with some uncertainty in the degree of boundary layer drying and surface RH reductions limiting confidence in a 70 percent Critical area. ...Day 5/Friday - Southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas... Model guidance depicts another mid-level short wave trough and attendant jet max ejecting into the Southern Plains on Day 5/Friday while a surface cyclone evolves across eastern NM. This would support stronger westerly, downslope flow into southeastern NM and far west TX. 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Day 6-8/Saturday-Monday... A more active wave pattern likely emerges across CONUS by the weekend, with upper-level troughing shifting into the East by early next week. Emergent Northwest flow aloft should aid in ushering in a cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Potential for dry, post frontal flow and related fire weather threat exists particularity across portions of TX Day 6/Saturday and the Southeast/FL by Day 7/Sunday, but timing uncertainty of the front limits predictability for the weekend. This precludes introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 02/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Strong and persistent westerly flow aloft and surface troughing across the Central Plains should keep a fire weather threat in place over portions of the Southern Plains Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. Troughing shifts into the eastern U.S. over the weekend while upper-level ridging builds into the central U.S. by early next week. An initial surge of drier, northerly flow east of the Continental Divide could bring fire weather concerns to the portions of the southern Plains on Day 6/Saturday and perhaps the Southeast and FL on Day 7/Sunday. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday as a mid-level jet overspreads the region while a surface cyclone deepens in eastern CO. Less cloud cover should yield a better boundary layer mixing environment overall across the Southern Plains. A corridor of strong southwesterly flow, relative humidity perhaps below 10 percent and dry fuels are expected from southeastern NM northeastward into southeastern CO and southwestern KS. 70 percent Critical probabilities were appreciably expanded, encompassing much of the Southern Plains for Wednesday. Enhanced westerly winds south of a surface low over the Upper Midwest are likely across the Corn Belt region on Wednesday, although some precipitation Wednesday morning could mitigate a broader fire weather threat. Minimal rainfall over the past several weeks has contributed to drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall coverage and magnitude precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Thursday - Southern Plains... Strong mid-level flow will continue over the southern/central Plains while a deepening surface low moves into the Midwest Day 4/Thursday. As a result, dry and breezy conditions should be maintained across much of the Southern Plains. Extended 40 percent critical probabilities eastward into OK with some uncertainty in the degree of boundary layer drying and surface RH reductions limiting confidence in a 70 percent Critical area. ...Day 5/Friday - Southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas... Model guidance depicts another mid-level short wave trough and attendant jet max ejecting into the Southern Plains on Day 5/Friday while a surface cyclone evolves across eastern NM. This would support stronger westerly, downslope flow into southeastern NM and far west TX. 40 percent critical probabilities have been added. ...Day 6-8/Saturday-Monday... A more active wave pattern likely emerges across CONUS by the weekend, with upper-level troughing shifting into the East by early next week. Emergent Northwest flow aloft should aid in ushering in a cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Potential for dry, post frontal flow and related fire weather threat exists particularity across portions of TX Day 6/Saturday and the Southeast/FL by Day 7/Sunday, but timing uncertainty of the front limits predictability for the weekend. This precludes introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 02/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Central High Plains... A rapidly deepening surface low across the northern and central High Plains under pronounced westerly flow aloft, will support downslope drying and strong winds across the Central Plains Tuesday. Extremely Critical and particularly dangerous fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of northeastern CO, southwestern NE and far northwestern KS where sustained west winds of up to 40 mph and very low relative humidity as low as 10 percent align. Very dry, receptive fuels exist across the area with the potential for fast moving wildfires if ignitions occur. The Extremely Critical highlighted area was shifted slightly to the southeast based on latest short term model guidance. A broader region of Critical Highlights across the Central Plains was expanded eastward into central NE and central KS to account for critical fire weather conditions likely to occur as a dry cold front moves through the region late Tuesday. ...Southern High Plains... The arrival of a 110-120 knot mid-level jet streak into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle along with steady surface pressure falls in response of a strengthening lee surface trough across the High Plains will promote a broad area of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the Southern High Plains Tuesday. Southwest winds of 25-35 mph along with RH as low as 15 percent will align with dry fuels to support an increasing wildfire spread potential. Expanded Elevated and Critical highlights farther eastward into central KS and western OK with the fire weather threat lingering into the evening hours as a dry cold front pushes through the region. A low-level thermal ridge stretching from central TX into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK could support a narrow corridor of marginally lower RH Tuesday afternoon at or below 15 percent. However, expansive mid and upper-level cloud cover as well as blowing dust is expected to reduce boundary layer mixing to a degree, which should temper overall fire weather conditions at least through the early afternoon hours. ..Williams.. 02/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a near 120 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the central into southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting rapid surface low deepening over the central/northern Plains by afternoon. Combined isallobaric and downslope flow along the High Plains will result in a strong westerly surface wind field amid a drying boundary layer, atop dry fuels, promoting potentially dangerous conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread. ...Central High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, as a surface low deepens over the central to northern High Plains, sustained westerly surface winds should strengthen to at least the 25-35 mph range as RH drops to at least 15-20 percent over most locales, necessitating Critical highlights. Guidance consensus depicts a belt of 30+ mph sustained surface winds, with higher gusts, over northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska, and extreme northwestern Kansas, with RH likely dipping to at least 15 percent. Currently, guidance suggests that the primary mid-level jet and accompanying cloud cover should pass this region to the south. As such, adequate boundary layer mixing should support the aforementioned surface conditions, and when also considering the very dry fuels in place (i.e. 90th percentile ERCs), the addition of Extremely Critical highlights appears warranted. Even if RH does not dip below 20 percent, the combination of such strong winds and critically dry fuels should compensate to support volatile wildfire-spread conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Sustained west-southwesterly surface winds in the 25-40 mph range should become established across much of the southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon as the 120 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. Considerable cloud cover should accompany the jet streak, lending uncertainty to the degree of RH reductions over the southern High Plains. Some guidance hints at RH only dipping to 25-35 percent over extreme eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle. Even so, the strength of the anticipated surface wind field atop cured fuels devoid of recent precipitation alone warrants the introduction of at least Critical highlights. RH should drop to at least 20 to perhaps 15 percent along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border, promoting high-end Critical fire weather conditions. If confidence increases in further RH reductions over this area, Extremely Critical highlights may need to be introduced in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Central High Plains... A rapidly deepening surface low across the northern and central High Plains under pronounced westerly flow aloft, will support downslope drying and strong winds across the Central Plains Tuesday. Extremely Critical and particularly dangerous fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of northeastern CO, southwestern NE and far northwestern KS where sustained west winds of up to 40 mph and very low relative humidity as low as 10 percent align. Very dry, receptive fuels exist across the area with the potential for fast moving wildfires if ignitions occur. The Extremely Critical highlighted area was shifted slightly to the southeast based on latest short term model guidance. A broader region of Critical Highlights across the Central Plains was expanded eastward into central NE and central KS to account for critical fire weather conditions likely to occur as a dry cold front moves through the region late Tuesday. ...Southern High Plains... The arrival of a 110-120 knot mid-level jet streak into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle along with steady surface pressure falls in response of a strengthening lee surface trough across the High Plains will promote a broad area of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the Southern High Plains Tuesday. Southwest winds of 25-35 mph along with RH as low as 15 percent will align with dry fuels to support an increasing wildfire spread potential. Expanded Elevated and Critical highlights farther eastward into central KS and western OK with the fire weather threat lingering into the evening hours as a dry cold front pushes through the region. A low-level thermal ridge stretching from central TX into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK could support a narrow corridor of marginally lower RH Tuesday afternoon at or below 15 percent. However, expansive mid and upper-level cloud cover as well as blowing dust is expected to reduce boundary layer mixing to a degree, which should temper overall fire weather conditions at least through the early afternoon hours. ..Williams.. 02/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a near 120 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the central into southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting rapid surface low deepening over the central/northern Plains by afternoon. Combined isallobaric and downslope flow along the High Plains will result in a strong westerly surface wind field amid a drying boundary layer, atop dry fuels, promoting potentially dangerous conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread. ...Central High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, as a surface low deepens over the central to northern High Plains, sustained westerly surface winds should strengthen to at least the 25-35 mph range as RH drops to at least 15-20 percent over most locales, necessitating Critical highlights. Guidance consensus depicts a belt of 30+ mph sustained surface winds, with higher gusts, over northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska, and extreme northwestern Kansas, with RH likely dipping to at least 15 percent. Currently, guidance suggests that the primary mid-level jet and accompanying cloud cover should pass this region to the south. As such, adequate boundary layer mixing should support the aforementioned surface conditions, and when also considering the very dry fuels in place (i.e. 90th percentile ERCs), the addition of Extremely Critical highlights appears warranted. Even if RH does not dip below 20 percent, the combination of such strong winds and critically dry fuels should compensate to support volatile wildfire-spread conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Sustained west-southwesterly surface winds in the 25-40 mph range should become established across much of the southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon as the 120 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. Considerable cloud cover should accompany the jet streak, lending uncertainty to the degree of RH reductions over the southern High Plains. Some guidance hints at RH only dipping to 25-35 percent over extreme eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle. Even so, the strength of the anticipated surface wind field atop cured fuels devoid of recent precipitation alone warrants the introduction of at least Critical highlights. RH should drop to at least 20 to perhaps 15 percent along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border, promoting high-end Critical fire weather conditions. If confidence increases in further RH reductions over this area, Extremely Critical highlights may need to be introduced in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Central High Plains... A rapidly deepening surface low across the northern and central High Plains under pronounced westerly flow aloft, will support downslope drying and strong winds across the Central Plains Tuesday. Extremely Critical and particularly dangerous fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of northeastern CO, southwestern NE and far northwestern KS where sustained west winds of up to 40 mph and very low relative humidity as low as 10 percent align. Very dry, receptive fuels exist across the area with the potential for fast moving wildfires if ignitions occur. The Extremely Critical highlighted area was shifted slightly to the southeast based on latest short term model guidance. A broader region of Critical Highlights across the Central Plains was expanded eastward into central NE and central KS to account for critical fire weather conditions likely to occur as a dry cold front moves through the region late Tuesday. ...Southern High Plains... The arrival of a 110-120 knot mid-level jet streak into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle along with steady surface pressure falls in response of a strengthening lee surface trough across the High Plains will promote a broad area of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the Southern High Plains Tuesday. Southwest winds of 25-35 mph along with RH as low as 15 percent will align with dry fuels to support an increasing wildfire spread potential. Expanded Elevated and Critical highlights farther eastward into central KS and western OK with the fire weather threat lingering into the evening hours as a dry cold front pushes through the region. A low-level thermal ridge stretching from central TX into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK could support a narrow corridor of marginally lower RH Tuesday afternoon at or below 15 percent. However, expansive mid and upper-level cloud cover as well as blowing dust is expected to reduce boundary layer mixing to a degree, which should temper overall fire weather conditions at least through the early afternoon hours. ..Williams.. 02/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a near 120 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the central into southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting rapid surface low deepening over the central/northern Plains by afternoon. Combined isallobaric and downslope flow along the High Plains will result in a strong westerly surface wind field amid a drying boundary layer, atop dry fuels, promoting potentially dangerous conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread. ...Central High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, as a surface low deepens over the central to northern High Plains, sustained westerly surface winds should strengthen to at least the 25-35 mph range as RH drops to at least 15-20 percent over most locales, necessitating Critical highlights. Guidance consensus depicts a belt of 30+ mph sustained surface winds, with higher gusts, over northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska, and extreme northwestern Kansas, with RH likely dipping to at least 15 percent. Currently, guidance suggests that the primary mid-level jet and accompanying cloud cover should pass this region to the south. As such, adequate boundary layer mixing should support the aforementioned surface conditions, and when also considering the very dry fuels in place (i.e. 90th percentile ERCs), the addition of Extremely Critical highlights appears warranted. Even if RH does not dip below 20 percent, the combination of such strong winds and critically dry fuels should compensate to support volatile wildfire-spread conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Sustained west-southwesterly surface winds in the 25-40 mph range should become established across much of the southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon as the 120 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. Considerable cloud cover should accompany the jet streak, lending uncertainty to the degree of RH reductions over the southern High Plains. Some guidance hints at RH only dipping to 25-35 percent over extreme eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle. Even so, the strength of the anticipated surface wind field atop cured fuels devoid of recent precipitation alone warrants the introduction of at least Critical highlights. RH should drop to at least 20 to perhaps 15 percent along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border, promoting high-end Critical fire weather conditions. If confidence increases in further RH reductions over this area, Extremely Critical highlights may need to be introduced in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to persist over the western CONUS on Wednesday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move through the large-scale trough through the period. Low-topped convection will be possible across southern CA early in the period, with multiple rounds of weak convection possible farther north from the Pacific Northwest to central CA coast. Farther east, a negative-tilt shortwave trough will move across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, as multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima eject eastward toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. ...MI into the Lower Great Lakes region... Generally weak elevated convection may spread from lower MI into parts of the Lower Great Lakes through the day, in association with an ejecting midlevel vorticity maximum. Some guidance (such as the ECMWF/GFS) depicts modest surface-based destabilization in the wake of this elevated convection, within a favorably sheared environment. However, this occurs within an otherwise drying environment (with PW falling near/below 0.5 inches), with generally limited low-level ascent. The signal for robust deeper convection is currently very limited, but trends will continue to be monitored regarding the potential for any vigorous surface-based development. ...Northern Mid-South region into the Ohio Valley... In response to a mid/upper-level shortwave ejecting from the western trough, a surface cyclone is forecast to deepen across the central High Plains during the day, before moving eastward across KS Wednesday night. Guidance varies regarding the magnitude of low-level moisture return within the warm-sector of this cyclone prior to the end of the period. However, MUCAPE may become sufficient for development of elevated thunderstorms late in the period from parts of northern AR/southern MO into much of KY/TN and adjacent Ohio Valley. Strong deep-layer flow would conditionally support some storm organization, but development of sufficient elevated buoyancy for an organized-severe threat remains uncertain. ..Dean.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to persist over the western CONUS on Wednesday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move through the large-scale trough through the period. Low-topped convection will be possible across southern CA early in the period, with multiple rounds of weak convection possible farther north from the Pacific Northwest to central CA coast. Farther east, a negative-tilt shortwave trough will move across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, as multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima eject eastward toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. ...MI into the Lower Great Lakes region... Generally weak elevated convection may spread from lower MI into parts of the Lower Great Lakes through the day, in association with an ejecting midlevel vorticity maximum. Some guidance (such as the ECMWF/GFS) depicts modest surface-based destabilization in the wake of this elevated convection, within a favorably sheared environment. However, this occurs within an otherwise drying environment (with PW falling near/below 0.5 inches), with generally limited low-level ascent. The signal for robust deeper convection is currently very limited, but trends will continue to be monitored regarding the potential for any vigorous surface-based development. ...Northern Mid-South region into the Ohio Valley... In response to a mid/upper-level shortwave ejecting from the western trough, a surface cyclone is forecast to deepen across the central High Plains during the day, before moving eastward across KS Wednesday night. Guidance varies regarding the magnitude of low-level moisture return within the warm-sector of this cyclone prior to the end of the period. However, MUCAPE may become sufficient for development of elevated thunderstorms late in the period from parts of northern AR/southern MO into much of KY/TN and adjacent Ohio Valley. Strong deep-layer flow would conditionally support some storm organization, but development of sufficient elevated buoyancy for an organized-severe threat remains uncertain. ..Dean.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to persist over the western CONUS on Wednesday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move through the large-scale trough through the period. Low-topped convection will be possible across southern CA early in the period, with multiple rounds of weak convection possible farther north from the Pacific Northwest to central CA coast. Farther east, a negative-tilt shortwave trough will move across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, as multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima eject eastward toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. ...MI into the Lower Great Lakes region... Generally weak elevated convection may spread from lower MI into parts of the Lower Great Lakes through the day, in association with an ejecting midlevel vorticity maximum. Some guidance (such as the ECMWF/GFS) depicts modest surface-based destabilization in the wake of this elevated convection, within a favorably sheared environment. However, this occurs within an otherwise drying environment (with PW falling near/below 0.5 inches), with generally limited low-level ascent. The signal for robust deeper convection is currently very limited, but trends will continue to be monitored regarding the potential for any vigorous surface-based development. ...Northern Mid-South region into the Ohio Valley... In response to a mid/upper-level shortwave ejecting from the western trough, a surface cyclone is forecast to deepen across the central High Plains during the day, before moving eastward across KS Wednesday night. Guidance varies regarding the magnitude of low-level moisture return within the warm-sector of this cyclone prior to the end of the period. However, MUCAPE may become sufficient for development of elevated thunderstorms late in the period from parts of northern AR/southern MO into much of KY/TN and adjacent Ohio Valley. Strong deep-layer flow would conditionally support some storm organization, but development of sufficient elevated buoyancy for an organized-severe threat remains uncertain. ..Dean.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Bands of thunderstorm activity continue to move onshore across portions of the southern California coast, with potential for gusty winds and brief tornado. The threat will gradually shift southward through the afternoon/evening with the gradual movement inland of the upper-level wave. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/ ...Coastal Central and Southern CA... Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent will continue across the region throughout the day, although a southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing band, or the development of a separate band farther south. Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to produce lightning. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA... An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front moves through. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Bands of thunderstorm activity continue to move onshore across portions of the southern California coast, with potential for gusty winds and brief tornado. The threat will gradually shift southward through the afternoon/evening with the gradual movement inland of the upper-level wave. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/ ...Coastal Central and Southern CA... Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent will continue across the region throughout the day, although a southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing band, or the development of a separate band farther south. Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to produce lightning. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA... An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front moves through. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Bands of thunderstorm activity continue to move onshore across portions of the southern California coast, with potential for gusty winds and brief tornado. The threat will gradually shift southward through the afternoon/evening with the gradual movement inland of the upper-level wave. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/ ...Coastal Central and Southern CA... Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent will continue across the region throughout the day, although a southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing band, or the development of a separate band farther south. Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to produce lightning. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA... An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front moves through. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms currently appears low. ...California... In the wake of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across the Great Basin/Four Corners region, another strong trough will dig southeastward along the Pacific Coast on Tuesday, as a powerful mid/upper-level jet begins to impinge upon the California coast. Ascent attendant to the trough/jet and cold temperatures aloft will support low-topped convection along much of the California coast, and also within parts of the interior valleys. The strongest low/midlevel flow will move over the central/northern CA coast and valleys during the day and evening, and over the southern CA coastal region later Tuesday night. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with low-topped convection across these regions. At this time, it appears that convection will be quite shallow, which is expected to limit the organized severe threat. However, trends will continue to be monitored regarding potential for a low-probability wind and brief-tornado threat associated with this strong system. ...Missouri Valley/Midwest... The mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners region will eject rapidly northeastward and take on a negative tilt on Tuesday, reaching the central/northern Plains by late afternoon into the evening, and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early Wednesday morning. In response to this shortwave trough, a deep surface low will consolidate across the northern High Plains, and then move across the Dakotas. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the Great Plains. Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the front is expected to remain quite limited, but strong ascent and modest moistening above the surface could support elevated convection from very late afternoon into Tuesday night across parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. The signal for robust convection is currently muted, with the general thunderstorm area reflecting a broad region of low but nonzero potential. With strong low/midlevel flow and robust diurnal heating/mixing expected across the warm sector, the environment will be conditionally favorable for strong to locally severe gusts, if deep convection can be sustained. ..Dean.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms currently appears low. ...California... In the wake of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across the Great Basin/Four Corners region, another strong trough will dig southeastward along the Pacific Coast on Tuesday, as a powerful mid/upper-level jet begins to impinge upon the California coast. Ascent attendant to the trough/jet and cold temperatures aloft will support low-topped convection along much of the California coast, and also within parts of the interior valleys. The strongest low/midlevel flow will move over the central/northern CA coast and valleys during the day and evening, and over the southern CA coastal region later Tuesday night. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with low-topped convection across these regions. At this time, it appears that convection will be quite shallow, which is expected to limit the organized severe threat. However, trends will continue to be monitored regarding potential for a low-probability wind and brief-tornado threat associated with this strong system. ...Missouri Valley/Midwest... The mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners region will eject rapidly northeastward and take on a negative tilt on Tuesday, reaching the central/northern Plains by late afternoon into the evening, and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early Wednesday morning. In response to this shortwave trough, a deep surface low will consolidate across the northern High Plains, and then move across the Dakotas. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the Great Plains. Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the front is expected to remain quite limited, but strong ascent and modest moistening above the surface could support elevated convection from very late afternoon into Tuesday night across parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. The signal for robust convection is currently muted, with the general thunderstorm area reflecting a broad region of low but nonzero potential. With strong low/midlevel flow and robust diurnal heating/mixing expected across the warm sector, the environment will be conditionally favorable for strong to locally severe gusts, if deep convection can be sustained. ..Dean.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms currently appears low. ...California... In the wake of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across the Great Basin/Four Corners region, another strong trough will dig southeastward along the Pacific Coast on Tuesday, as a powerful mid/upper-level jet begins to impinge upon the California coast. Ascent attendant to the trough/jet and cold temperatures aloft will support low-topped convection along much of the California coast, and also within parts of the interior valleys. The strongest low/midlevel flow will move over the central/northern CA coast and valleys during the day and evening, and over the southern CA coastal region later Tuesday night. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with low-topped convection across these regions. At this time, it appears that convection will be quite shallow, which is expected to limit the organized severe threat. However, trends will continue to be monitored regarding potential for a low-probability wind and brief-tornado threat associated with this strong system. ...Missouri Valley/Midwest... The mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners region will eject rapidly northeastward and take on a negative tilt on Tuesday, reaching the central/northern Plains by late afternoon into the evening, and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early Wednesday morning. In response to this shortwave trough, a deep surface low will consolidate across the northern High Plains, and then move across the Dakotas. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the Great Plains. Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the front is expected to remain quite limited, but strong ascent and modest moistening above the surface could support elevated convection from very late afternoon into Tuesday night across parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. The signal for robust convection is currently muted, with the general thunderstorm area reflecting a broad region of low but nonzero potential. With strong low/midlevel flow and robust diurnal heating/mixing expected across the warm sector, the environment will be conditionally favorable for strong to locally severe gusts, if deep convection can be sustained. ..Dean.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Coastal Central and Southern CA... Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent will continue across the region throughout the day, although a southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing band, or the development of a separate band farther south. Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to produce lightning. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA... An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front moves through. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Coastal Central and Southern CA... Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent will continue across the region throughout the day, although a southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing band, or the development of a separate band farther south. Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to produce lightning. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA... An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front moves through. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Coastal Central and Southern CA... Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent will continue across the region throughout the day, although a southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing band, or the development of a separate band farther south. Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to produce lightning. ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA... An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front moves through. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 02/16/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Southern and Central Plains... Increasing westerly flow aloft and associated strengthening surface lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains will support dry and breezy conditions across portions of eastern CO, eastern NM and OK/TX Panhandles through this afternoon. Sustained south/southwest winds approaching 20 mph coinciding with minimum RH between 15 and 20 percent will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid a receptive fuelscape. Boundary layer decoupling could be delayed across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS supporting a lingering fire weather threat into the late evening hours, where surface wind reductions will be gradual under an accelerating low-level jet. In addition, poor RH recoveries of 30% or less under increasing cloud cover are possible overnight leading into Day 2/Tuesday. A slight eastward extension of Elevated highlights was made across the TX Panhandle and far northwestern OK based on latest model guidance and surface observations. ..Williams.. 02/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Mississippi Valley as a pronounced mid-level trough impinges on the Rockies today. As this occurs, strong surface lee troughing will encourage widespread 15+ mph sustained southerly winds over the central and southern High Plains for much of the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained over areas devoid of recent precipitation (hence dry fuels), and where RH will dip below 20 percent for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Southern and Central Plains... Increasing westerly flow aloft and associated strengthening surface lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains will support dry and breezy conditions across portions of eastern CO, eastern NM and OK/TX Panhandles through this afternoon. Sustained south/southwest winds approaching 20 mph coinciding with minimum RH between 15 and 20 percent will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid a receptive fuelscape. Boundary layer decoupling could be delayed across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS supporting a lingering fire weather threat into the late evening hours, where surface wind reductions will be gradual under an accelerating low-level jet. In addition, poor RH recoveries of 30% or less under increasing cloud cover are possible overnight leading into Day 2/Tuesday. A slight eastward extension of Elevated highlights was made across the TX Panhandle and far northwestern OK based on latest model guidance and surface observations. ..Williams.. 02/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Mississippi Valley as a pronounced mid-level trough impinges on the Rockies today. As this occurs, strong surface lee troughing will encourage widespread 15+ mph sustained southerly winds over the central and southern High Plains for much of the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained over areas devoid of recent precipitation (hence dry fuels), and where RH will dip below 20 percent for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Southern and Central Plains... Increasing westerly flow aloft and associated strengthening surface lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains will support dry and breezy conditions across portions of eastern CO, eastern NM and OK/TX Panhandles through this afternoon. Sustained south/southwest winds approaching 20 mph coinciding with minimum RH between 15 and 20 percent will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid a receptive fuelscape. Boundary layer decoupling could be delayed across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS supporting a lingering fire weather threat into the late evening hours, where surface wind reductions will be gradual under an accelerating low-level jet. In addition, poor RH recoveries of 30% or less under increasing cloud cover are possible overnight leading into Day 2/Tuesday. A slight eastward extension of Elevated highlights was made across the TX Panhandle and far northwestern OK based on latest model guidance and surface observations. ..Williams.. 02/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Mississippi Valley as a pronounced mid-level trough impinges on the Rockies today. As this occurs, strong surface lee troughing will encourage widespread 15+ mph sustained southerly winds over the central and southern High Plains for much of the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained over areas devoid of recent precipitation (hence dry fuels), and where RH will dip below 20 percent for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more