Storm Prediction Center

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MLC TO 30 NW RKR TO 35 WSW FYV TO 20 SSE GMJ TO 5 NW JLN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009 ..MOORE..01/08/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-081840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON MOC119-145-081840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCDONALD NEWTON OKC001-061-135-081840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR HASKELL SEQUOYAH Read more

MD 0084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151245Z - 151445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradual intensification of a weak QLCS is anticipated through the morning hours. An uptick in severe wind and tornado potential is anticipated as this occur, although it remains unclear exactly when convective intensity will be sufficient to support a substantial severe threat. Trends will be monitored, and watch issuance is possible at some point this morning. DISCUSSION...An uptick in reflectivity and lightning counts has been noted over the past 30-45 minutes within a weak QLCS as it traverses the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Very limited buoyancy near the coast has modulated convective intensity for much of the early morning, but recent guidance has been persistent in showing a re-intensification of the line at some point in the coming hours. These recent trends suggest that the early stages of re-intensification may be underway. Surface observations along the FL coast show dewpoints increasing into the mid-60s, which may be sufficient for MLCAPE values upwards of 750 J/kg immediately ahead of the line based on latest RAP forecast soundings. Convective elements within the line should continue to intensify as further low-level moistening occurs in the coming hours. Additionally, regional VWPs continue to sample ample low-level and deep-layer shear, which will support an organized linear mode capable of severe gusts and embedded mesovortices once convective maturation is achieved. Although it remains somewhat unclear exactly when the QLCS will reach sufficient intensity to pose a robust severe threat, watch issuance will likely be needed at some point later this morning. ..Moore/Smith.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30478668 30768645 31278609 31568592 31748369 31758334 31538318 31128318 30678336 30138379 29968397 29768437 29598482 29568506 29748538 29958551 30098566 30198586 30288613 30318636 30378660 30478668 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama. Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible. ...Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast. Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold front overnight. Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across central MS-AL-GA through mid evening. The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum. However, scant buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to mid 60s deg F). The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details. Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few mesovortices. Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief tornadoes are possible. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama. Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible. ...Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast. Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold front overnight. Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across central MS-AL-GA through mid evening. The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum. However, scant buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to mid 60s deg F). The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details. Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few mesovortices. Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief tornadoes are possible. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama. Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible. ...Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast. Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold front overnight. Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across central MS-AL-GA through mid evening. The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum. However, scant buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to mid 60s deg F). The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details. Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few mesovortices. Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief tornadoes are possible. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama. Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible. ...Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast. Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold front overnight. Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across central MS-AL-GA through mid evening. The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum. However, scant buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to mid 60s deg F). The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details. Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few mesovortices. Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief tornadoes are possible. ..Smith/Moore.. 02/15/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 15 11:25:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0083 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 7... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast Mississippi into southern Alabama and the far western Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 7... Valid 150904Z - 151100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues. SUMMARY...A weakening trend has been noted with the QLCS exiting the lower Mississippi River Valley over the past two hours. While a lull in convective intensity is anticipated over the coming hours, the downstream environment could still support damaging to severe wind gusts in the near term. DISCUSSION...Diminishing lightning counts, warming cloud-top temperatures, and decreasing VIL values have all been observed over the past two hours with the QLCS traversing southeast LA and southern MS. The viable warm sector capable of support intense convection continues to become spatially confined closer to the coast where low to mid-60s dewpoints remain in place. Veering surface winds ahead of the line suggest low-level convergence is diminishing and is likely also contributing to the weakening trend in conjunction with limited buoyancy. However, the KMOB VWP continues to sample approximately 25 knots of 0-3 km BWD and around 40 knots of 0-6 km BWD ahead of the line. This, coupled with residual buoyancy along the coast, may continue to support sporadic damaging/severe winds across the remainder of WW 7. Recent HRRR solutions seem to support this idea and hint at more intense cells over the Gulf waters moving onshore through around 11 UTC that may pose a localized severe wind risk. ..Moore.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30508904 30768880 31198875 31318862 31358665 31318640 31208626 30648626 30458636 30388674 30298718 30238782 30258828 30248884 30248904 30508904 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BVE TO 5 NE MOB TO 50 S TCL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083 ..MOORE..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-053-097-151140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE ESCAMBIA MOBILE FLC033-091-113-151140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-650-655-151140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BVE TO 5 NE MOB TO 50 S TCL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083 ..MOORE..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-053-097-151140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE ESCAMBIA MOBILE FLC033-091-113-151140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-650-655-151140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BVE TO 5 NE MOB TO 50 S TCL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083 ..MOORE..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-053-097-151140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE ESCAMBIA MOBILE FLC033-091-113-151140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-650-655-151140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 7 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 150520Z - 151100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 7 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1120 PM until 500 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving squall line will traverse the watch area overnight. Several embedded areas of circulation may persist, with a risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind events. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northeast of Pine Belt MS to 25 miles south southwest of Boothville LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 6... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong. To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time. Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong. To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time. Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong. To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time. Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential. Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW HUM TO 35 NNW BVE TO 15 WNW GPT TO 5 N MEI. ..MOORE..02/15/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-053-097-129-150940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE ESCAMBIA MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC033-091-113-150940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA LAC075-150940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE PLAQUEMINES Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, will weaken while migrating inland Tuesday. However, an associated intense offshore northerly mid/upper jet streak is forecast to continue digging southeastward toward coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, through the southern Sierra Nevada, maintaining amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast. The remnants of a preceding inland migrating trough, including at least a couple of emerging smaller-scale perturbations, are forecast to pivot east and northeast of the Rockies, across much of the middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, as a broad belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly flow continues developing to the lee of the southern Rockies through the Mid Atlantic Seaboard. In lower levels, the latest model output suggests that initially deep surface troughing, along an axis from the northern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains, will shift across the middle and lower Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest. However, it appears that it will slowly weaken as it does, and stronger southerly low-level flow across the central/southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley is likely to maintain a notable westerly component. Coupled with preceding low-level drying across much of the Gulf Basin, low-level moisture return will be rather limited beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Pacific Coast... Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm development, seems likely to become focused across northern and central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper jet. Stronger cells may become capable of producing at least small hail and gusty winds, but it is not yet clear that thermodynamic profiles will support activity approaching or exceeding severe limits. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... There appears at least some signal in the latest model output that the limited moisture return, coupled with strong differential lower/mid-tropospheric thermal advection, could support weak elevated convection capable of producing lightning in a corridor spreading northeast of the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday evening. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, will weaken while migrating inland Tuesday. However, an associated intense offshore northerly mid/upper jet streak is forecast to continue digging southeastward toward coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, through the southern Sierra Nevada, maintaining amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast. The remnants of a preceding inland migrating trough, including at least a couple of emerging smaller-scale perturbations, are forecast to pivot east and northeast of the Rockies, across much of the middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, as a broad belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly flow continues developing to the lee of the southern Rockies through the Mid Atlantic Seaboard. In lower levels, the latest model output suggests that initially deep surface troughing, along an axis from the northern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains, will shift across the middle and lower Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest. However, it appears that it will slowly weaken as it does, and stronger southerly low-level flow across the central/southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley is likely to maintain a notable westerly component. Coupled with preceding low-level drying across much of the Gulf Basin, low-level moisture return will be rather limited beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Pacific Coast... Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm development, seems likely to become focused across northern and central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper jet. Stronger cells may become capable of producing at least small hail and gusty winds, but it is not yet clear that thermodynamic profiles will support activity approaching or exceeding severe limits. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... There appears at least some signal in the latest model output that the limited moisture return, coupled with strong differential lower/mid-tropospheric thermal advection, could support weak elevated convection capable of producing lightning in a corridor spreading northeast of the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday evening. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, will weaken while migrating inland Tuesday. However, an associated intense offshore northerly mid/upper jet streak is forecast to continue digging southeastward toward coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, through the southern Sierra Nevada, maintaining amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast. The remnants of a preceding inland migrating trough, including at least a couple of emerging smaller-scale perturbations, are forecast to pivot east and northeast of the Rockies, across much of the middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, as a broad belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly flow continues developing to the lee of the southern Rockies through the Mid Atlantic Seaboard. In lower levels, the latest model output suggests that initially deep surface troughing, along an axis from the northern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains, will shift across the middle and lower Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest. However, it appears that it will slowly weaken as it does, and stronger southerly low-level flow across the central/southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley is likely to maintain a notable westerly component. Coupled with preceding low-level drying across much of the Gulf Basin, low-level moisture return will be rather limited beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Pacific Coast... Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm development, seems likely to become focused across northern and central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper jet. Stronger cells may become capable of producing at least small hail and gusty winds, but it is not yet clear that thermodynamic profiles will support activity approaching or exceeding severe limits. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... There appears at least some signal in the latest model output that the limited moisture return, coupled with strong differential lower/mid-tropospheric thermal advection, could support weak elevated convection capable of producing lightning in a corridor spreading northeast of the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday evening. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, will weaken while migrating inland Tuesday. However, an associated intense offshore northerly mid/upper jet streak is forecast to continue digging southeastward toward coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, through the southern Sierra Nevada, maintaining amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast. The remnants of a preceding inland migrating trough, including at least a couple of emerging smaller-scale perturbations, are forecast to pivot east and northeast of the Rockies, across much of the middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, as a broad belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly flow continues developing to the lee of the southern Rockies through the Mid Atlantic Seaboard. In lower levels, the latest model output suggests that initially deep surface troughing, along an axis from the northern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains, will shift across the middle and lower Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest. However, it appears that it will slowly weaken as it does, and stronger southerly low-level flow across the central/southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley is likely to maintain a notable westerly component. Coupled with preceding low-level drying across much of the Gulf Basin, low-level moisture return will be rather limited beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Pacific Coast... Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm development, seems likely to become focused across northern and central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper jet. Stronger cells may become capable of producing at least small hail and gusty winds, but it is not yet clear that thermodynamic profiles will support activity approaching or exceeding severe limits. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... There appears at least some signal in the latest model output that the limited moisture return, coupled with strong differential lower/mid-tropospheric thermal advection, could support weak elevated convection capable of producing lightning in a corridor spreading northeast of the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday evening. ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026 Read more