Storm Prediction Center

MD 0060 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 4... FOR THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST GA...SOUTHEAST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0060 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...the FL Panhandle...southwest GA...southeast AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 4... Valid 251832Z - 252000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and potential for a few tornadoes should persist into late afternoon with a QLCS progressing eastward. DISCUSSION...A low-topped QLCS has been quickly moving east along a cold front sweeping through southeast AL to the far western FL Panhandle. Pre-frontal convection has remained linear as well, with an upcoming merger of the two lines over far southeast AL shortly. Surface winds have consistently veered just ahead of the front, reducing low-level SRH to an extent. But the presence of a confined corridor of mid 70s surface temperatures from the central FL Panhandle into extreme southeast AL may support deepening convection into mid-afternoon, centered on the Chattahoochee Valley. Overall severe threat will become more spatially limited towards late afternoon as the QLCS likely outpaces the northeast extent of the surface-based instability plume. ..Grams.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32498551 32378494 32148440 31508387 30898412 30048515 30188665 30378759 30858709 31828603 32498551 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CEW TO 25 SSW CSG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060. ..GRAMS..01/25/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-067-069-252040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-059-063-091-131-133-252040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-053-061-071-081-087-095-099-131-177-197-201-205-239- 243-249-253-259-261-273-277-287-307-321-252040- GA Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing in the East and ridging in the West will be maintained on Tuesday. This pattern will reinforce cold, dry, and stable surface conditions across the CONUS. Thunderstorm development is unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing in the East and ridging in the West will be maintained on Tuesday. This pattern will reinforce cold, dry, and stable surface conditions across the CONUS. Thunderstorm development is unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing in the East and ridging in the West will be maintained on Tuesday. This pattern will reinforce cold, dry, and stable surface conditions across the CONUS. Thunderstorm development is unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing in the East and ridging in the West will be maintained on Tuesday. This pattern will reinforce cold, dry, and stable surface conditions across the CONUS. Thunderstorm development is unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/25/2026 Read more

MD 0057 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...southern AL...FL Panhandle...southwest GA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251555Z - 251800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential will likely increase into early afternoon with a QLCS and embedded supercells capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Along a pronounced cold front to the south-southwest of a surface cyclone between TCL and SEM, convective intensities appear to be increasing to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-frontal cells have also increased over the past hour, and an increasing severe threat is anticipated as activity matures over the next 2-3 hours. While pervasive downstream cloud coverage is limiting boundary-layer heating in the confined warm-moist sector, 60s surface dew points are sufficient for weak to modest MLCAPE from Mobile Bay and the western FL Panhandle northward into south-central AL. This warm-moist sector will shift east through the afternoon and likely reach southwest GA to the eastern FL Panhandle. Low-level shear is quite strong with enlarged hodographs favoring mesocyclone/mesovortex development. Expectation is for a QLCS to evolve east through the afternoon with a threat for damaging winds and brief tornadoes. If semi-discrete supercells can form ahead of and merge into the QLCS, a longer-tracked tornado or two is possible. ..Grams/Hart.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30388857 31858758 32418709 32478584 32218462 32008402 31608382 30688419 29788531 30188614 30388857 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 0056 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...Central Indiana to Western Pennsylvania Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 251500Z - 251800Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow rates to continue through the morning. DISCUSSION...A broad zone of isentropic ascent and frontogenesis across the Ohio Valley continues to support a widespread region of moderate snowfall this morning. Within this broad zone, heavier bands of snow with rates of 1+ inches per hour are being observed. This appears to be near the corridor of maximum 700mb frontogenesis based on SPC mesoanalysis. The peak of this frontogenesis appears to be from near Dayton, OH to Pittsburgh through 18Z before weakening thereafter. This also corresponds to a narrow zone 50 to 100 miles north of the sleet/snow transition zone which based on KILN Correlation Coefficient seems to have stalled southeast of I-71. Expect this zone of heavier rates to continue through the morning before weakening by early afternoon as the primary storm system shifts farther east and frontogenesis weakens. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39688605 41218256 41768104 41658024 40917988 39758159 39568256 39228372 38898472 38948541 39208616 39688605 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MOB TO 10 N MGM. ..GRAMS..01/25/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-087-101- 109-113-251840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL FLC005-013-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-251840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-053-061-071-081-087-095-099-131-177-197-201-205-215- Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest will shift eastward and phase with the broader synoptic trough within the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This will push a reinforcing surface high pressure system southward into the southern Plains/lower Mississippi Valley regions. A cold front will also continue to sag southward in the Florida Peninsula. South of the front, modest buoyancy will remain. Even so, forcing for ascent will become increasingly removed from the region and thunderstorm development does not appear likely. Elsewhere, cold air/offshore trajectories will similarly prohibit thunderstorms. ..Wendt.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest will shift eastward and phase with the broader synoptic trough within the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This will push a reinforcing surface high pressure system southward into the southern Plains/lower Mississippi Valley regions. A cold front will also continue to sag southward in the Florida Peninsula. South of the front, modest buoyancy will remain. Even so, forcing for ascent will become increasingly removed from the region and thunderstorm development does not appear likely. Elsewhere, cold air/offshore trajectories will similarly prohibit thunderstorms. ..Wendt.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest will shift eastward and phase with the broader synoptic trough within the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This will push a reinforcing surface high pressure system southward into the southern Plains/lower Mississippi Valley regions. A cold front will also continue to sag southward in the Florida Peninsula. South of the front, modest buoyancy will remain. Even so, forcing for ascent will become increasingly removed from the region and thunderstorm development does not appear likely. Elsewhere, cold air/offshore trajectories will similarly prohibit thunderstorms. ..Wendt.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest will shift eastward and phase with the broader synoptic trough within the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This will push a reinforcing surface high pressure system southward into the southern Plains/lower Mississippi Valley regions. A cold front will also continue to sag southward in the Florida Peninsula. South of the front, modest buoyancy will remain. Even so, forcing for ascent will become increasingly removed from the region and thunderstorm development does not appear likely. Elsewhere, cold air/offshore trajectories will similarly prohibit thunderstorms. ..Wendt.. 01/25/2026 Read more

MD 0055 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...Eastern West Virginia and Virginia into the DelMarva. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 251439Z - 251745Z SUMMARY...Snow has mostly transitioned to sleet from eastern West Virginia, across Virginia, and into the DelMarva. DISCUSSION...Strong warm air advection has supported moderate precipitation rates through the morning across West Virginia/Virginia and into the Mid-Atlantic. The 12A IAD RAOB showed a warm nose slightly below freezing at around 750mb with very strong (80 knot) southwesterly flow at the altitude of the warm nose. As such, this warm nose is quickly warming/advecting north and surface observations of sleet across northeast Virginia and Maryland confirm this transition. Any areas that remain snow this morning across Virginia and Maryland will likely transition to sleet within the next 1 to 2 hours given this strong warm air advection aloft. Expect precipitation type to remain sleet even as this warm nose continues to warm given the very cold temperatures at the top of the boundary layer (-15C) at the KIAD, KRNK, and KGSO 12Z RAOBs. The moderate precipitation will continue with sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour expected. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38578068 39447911 39657676 39407524 39077473 38657469 36957632 36747696 36607868 36797956 37218037 37978054 38578068 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0004 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal fire weather concerns across CONUS. A dry, post frontal air mass has infiltrated into much of the Desert Southwest, resulting in relative humidity falling into the 10-15 percent range this afternoon across the lower CO River Basin. However, a weakening surface pressure gradient and reduced northerly winds through the day along with marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of highlights. ..Williams.. 01/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal fire weather concerns across CONUS. A dry, post frontal air mass has infiltrated into much of the Desert Southwest, resulting in relative humidity falling into the 10-15 percent range this afternoon across the lower CO River Basin. However, a weakening surface pressure gradient and reduced northerly winds through the day along with marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of highlights. ..Williams.. 01/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal fire weather concerns across CONUS. A dry, post frontal air mass has infiltrated into much of the Desert Southwest, resulting in relative humidity falling into the 10-15 percent range this afternoon across the lower CO River Basin. However, a weakening surface pressure gradient and reduced northerly winds through the day along with marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of highlights. ..Williams.. 01/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal fire weather concerns across CONUS. A dry, post frontal air mass has infiltrated into much of the Desert Southwest, resulting in relative humidity falling into the 10-15 percent range this afternoon across the lower CO River Basin. However, a weakening surface pressure gradient and reduced northerly winds through the day along with marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of highlights. ..Williams.. 01/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast states this afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...AL/GA/FL... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front, southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/25/2026 Read more