Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining instability offshore. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining instability offshore. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining instability offshore. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining instability offshore. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2026 Read more

MD 0050 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0050 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...portions of south-central/eastern Texas into western Louisiana Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 250452Z - 250845Z SUMMARY...Mix of freezing rain and sleet likely overnight into early Sunday. DISCUSSION...Freezing rain and occasional sleet has been ongoing from the San Antonio Metro to College Station, TX. There are reports of freezing rain accumulations around 0.05-0.10 of an inch in 3 hours. Guidance indicates that coverage of precipitation will increase over the next several hours across south-central Texas into western Louisiana as large scale ascent continues to increase. Forecast RAP soundings depict a warm layer around 850 mb above more shallow sub-freezing air near the surface supporting the primary precipitation type to be freezing rain. HREF guidance indicates increasing probabilities of at least 0.05 of an inch per 3 hr freezing rainfall rates along and north of the I-10 corridor overnight into early Sunday morning. Sleet will remain possible at times in heavier bands, especially with further north extent into the deeper cold air across northeastern Texas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 33029441 33029358 32499340 31919337 31389351 30919376 30329476 29769676 29709764 29579959 30230014 31389854 32759559 33029441 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Gulf Coast States... Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Gulf Coast States... Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Gulf Coast States... Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Gulf Coast States... Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026 Read more

MD 0049 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0049 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Northern Louisiana into eastern Arkansas...northwest Mississippi...and far western Tennessee Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 250146Z - 250645Z SUMMARY...Another round of freezing rain and sleet is expected to spread out of northern Louisiana into eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. Freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05 inch/hour appear likely for some locations. DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaics show a developing plume of precipitation across central to northern LA - likely associated with strengthening warm advection between 925-850 mb. Over the next several hours, an uptick in low-level winds should promote further augmentation of isentropic and frontogenetical ascent across the lower MS River Valley. Regional 00z RAOBs from SHV and LZK sampled a stout (4-12 C) warm layer between 850-700 mb that will melt hydrometeors as precipitation spreads north/northeast. Sub-freezing surface temperatures will promote some degree of re-freezing near the surface, though locations with temperatures at or near/below 15 F will likely be sufficiently cold (and have a sufficiently deep sub-freezing layer) to promote sleet as the predominant precipitation type. Warmer locations will likely observe freezing rain (with freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch/hour) with periods of sleet possible. Based on latest surface observations, freezing rain appears most probable across southeast AR into northwest MS with sleet more likely for locations further north into east-central AR and far western TN. ..Moore.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32499131 32369169 32359227 32459267 32909332 33239345 33509334 36089071 36279027 36238969 35928916 35648881 35388867 35128863 34838881 32499131 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on D2/Monday across the CONUS. Heights will steadily rise across the central US with continued widespread precipitation into the northeastern US. Overall, recent precipitation and continued cold temperatures will continue to mitigate any potential fire risk. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on D2/Monday across the CONUS. Heights will steadily rise across the central US with continued widespread precipitation into the northeastern US. Overall, recent precipitation and continued cold temperatures will continue to mitigate any potential fire risk. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on D2/Monday across the CONUS. Heights will steadily rise across the central US with continued widespread precipitation into the northeastern US. Overall, recent precipitation and continued cold temperatures will continue to mitigate any potential fire risk. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on D2/Monday across the CONUS. Heights will steadily rise across the central US with continued widespread precipitation into the northeastern US. Overall, recent precipitation and continued cold temperatures will continue to mitigate any potential fire risk. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels across the Southern Plains. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...01z Update... Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026 Read more

MD 0048 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...north-central Texas...southeastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 250109Z - 250515Z SUMMARY...Mix of freezing rain and sleet to continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...Surface observations have reported periods of sleet and freezing rain across north-central Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas. Freezing rain accumulations have generally been around 0.01"/hr or less. Sleet accumulations near the Dallas Metro around 0.10-0.50"/hr. 00z soundings from FWD and LZK show a warm nose across between 850-700 mb atop sub-freezing surface temperatures. As upper-level forcing for ascent increases with the ejecting low, a mix of freezing rain and sleet can be expected to continue across this region through the next several hours. The primary precipitation type is expected to be sleet, with areas of freezing rain/mist. Freezing rain amounts should be generally less than 0.01"/hr with sleet accumulations around 0.10-0.50"/hr. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33729769 34289693 35319539 36019403 36089303 35909255 34709306 33529499 32809604 32699632 32869724 33159755 33729769 Read more