Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will persist beneath broad upper troughing/northwest flow across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Wednesday. This will maintain the modified arctic airmass across much of the country. With a large area of snow and ice cover, cold, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will persist beneath broad upper troughing/northwest flow across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Wednesday. This will maintain the modified arctic airmass across much of the country. With a large area of snow and ice cover, cold, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central High Plains... A subtle, mid-level short wave embedded in broad northwesterly flow approaching the Southern Rockies along with surface lee trough development across eastern CO is expected today. This will support downslope drying and promote a considerable rise in temperatures across the central High Plains through this afternoon as a rapid erosion of a shallow inversion layer continues. West winds of 15-25 mph are expected across southeastern WY and more localized portions of the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Despite RH approaching 15 percent this afternoon in some areas, expansive snow cover across the region will mitigate the otherwise elevated fire weather concerns. Please see previous forecast discussion for additional details. ..Williams.. 01/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be very low today across the CONUS. Recent widespread winter precipitation and rainfall have improved fuels across much of the central/southern Plains with fresh snow pack extending into the Mississippi and Missouri Valleys. In addition, an arctic air mass remains in place across much of the CONUS. Overall, the cold and wet conditions will negate fire spread potential across much of the US. Dry conditions will be possible across the Florida Panhandle as dry northwesterly flow increases behind the passing cold front. Relative humidity reductions around 30-35% may briefly overlap winds 10-15 mph. Cooler temperatures behind the front and some light preceding rainfall should limit broader fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central High Plains... A subtle, mid-level short wave embedded in broad northwesterly flow approaching the Southern Rockies along with surface lee trough development across eastern CO is expected today. This will support downslope drying and promote a considerable rise in temperatures across the central High Plains through this afternoon as a rapid erosion of a shallow inversion layer continues. West winds of 15-25 mph are expected across southeastern WY and more localized portions of the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Despite RH approaching 15 percent this afternoon in some areas, expansive snow cover across the region will mitigate the otherwise elevated fire weather concerns. Please see previous forecast discussion for additional details. ..Williams.. 01/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be very low today across the CONUS. Recent widespread winter precipitation and rainfall have improved fuels across much of the central/southern Plains with fresh snow pack extending into the Mississippi and Missouri Valleys. In addition, an arctic air mass remains in place across much of the CONUS. Overall, the cold and wet conditions will negate fire spread potential across much of the US. Dry conditions will be possible across the Florida Panhandle as dry northwesterly flow increases behind the passing cold front. Relative humidity reductions around 30-35% may briefly overlap winds 10-15 mph. Cooler temperatures behind the front and some light preceding rainfall should limit broader fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move from the Rockies into the central/southern Plains on Tuesday, bringing with it a reinforcing shot of cold air to the middle part of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will persist, resulting in continental trajectories and maintaining a cold, dry, and stable airmass. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move from the Rockies into the central/southern Plains on Tuesday, bringing with it a reinforcing shot of cold air to the middle part of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will persist, resulting in continental trajectories and maintaining a cold, dry, and stable airmass. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0950 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion including South Florida... Longwave trough will remain prevalent east of the Rockies, with some late-day amplification of the upper ridge into the West in advance of an approaching shortwave trough. High pressure and cold/continental trajectories will extensively prevail east of the Rockies, with an exception being ahead of a cold front crossing the Florida Peninsula. While near-frontal convergence will remain weak, and mid-level lapse rates are poor, additional boundary layer warming and deepening convection may be conducive for a few lightning flashes, mainly near parts of the coastal southeast Florida Peninsula through afternoon. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0950 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion including South Florida... Longwave trough will remain prevalent east of the Rockies, with some late-day amplification of the upper ridge into the West in advance of an approaching shortwave trough. High pressure and cold/continental trajectories will extensively prevail east of the Rockies, with an exception being ahead of a cold front crossing the Florida Peninsula. While near-frontal convergence will remain weak, and mid-level lapse rates are poor, additional boundary layer warming and deepening convection may be conducive for a few lightning flashes, mainly near parts of the coastal southeast Florida Peninsula through afternoon. ..Guyer/Barnes.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... Recent surface analysis centers an expansive 1040 mb high over OK. Cold and stable airmass and offshore trajectories associated with this high will preclude thunderstorm development across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is along and ahead of a decaying cold front as it moves through central and southern FL. Regional radar imagery currently shows some deeper convection just ahead of this front over central FL, where the dewpoints are in the 70s. However, even with this low-level moisture in place, more than isolated deep convection appears unlikely due to warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates. A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning could still occur briefly, particularly on the southeast FL Coast where high temperatures will reach the low 80s, but overall lightning coverage is still expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... Recent surface analysis centers an expansive 1040 mb high over OK. Cold and stable airmass and offshore trajectories associated with this high will preclude thunderstorm development across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is along and ahead of a decaying cold front as it moves through central and southern FL. Regional radar imagery currently shows some deeper convection just ahead of this front over central FL, where the dewpoints are in the 70s. However, even with this low-level moisture in place, more than isolated deep convection appears unlikely due to warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates. A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning could still occur briefly, particularly on the southeast FL Coast where high temperatures will reach the low 80s, but overall lightning coverage is still expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... Recent surface analysis centers an expansive 1040 mb high over OK. Cold and stable airmass and offshore trajectories associated with this high will preclude thunderstorm development across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is along and ahead of a decaying cold front as it moves through central and southern FL. Regional radar imagery currently shows some deeper convection just ahead of this front over central FL, where the dewpoints are in the 70s. However, even with this low-level moisture in place, more than isolated deep convection appears unlikely due to warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates. A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning could still occur briefly, particularly on the southeast FL Coast where high temperatures will reach the low 80s, but overall lightning coverage is still expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/26/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A robust Arctic air mass associated with continued troughing over the eastern US will be reinforced by several additional perturbations moving out of Canada and a building western US ridge. As the flow pattern aloft amplifies, surface cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic seaboard this weekend, further increasing offshore flow and limiting substantial inland moisture return/destabilization. Thus, thunderstorm potential appears negligible through the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A robust Arctic air mass associated with continued troughing over the eastern US will be reinforced by several additional perturbations moving out of Canada and a building western US ridge. As the flow pattern aloft amplifies, surface cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic seaboard this weekend, further increasing offshore flow and limiting substantial inland moisture return/destabilization. Thus, thunderstorm potential appears negligible through the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A robust Arctic air mass associated with continued troughing over the eastern US will be reinforced by several additional perturbations moving out of Canada and a building western US ridge. As the flow pattern aloft amplifies, surface cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic seaboard this weekend, further increasing offshore flow and limiting substantial inland moisture return/destabilization. Thus, thunderstorm potential appears negligible through the extended forecast period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Persistent eastern US troughing will gradually consolidate with pronounced northwesterly flow aloft developing over central and eastern CONUS. Ridging to the west will further enhanced surface high pressure over the Midwest. With Arctic air and widespread snow cover in place, cool and dry surface conditions will negate thunderstorm potential. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Persistent eastern US troughing will gradually consolidate with pronounced northwesterly flow aloft developing over central and eastern CONUS. Ridging to the west will further enhanced surface high pressure over the Midwest. With Arctic air and widespread snow cover in place, cool and dry surface conditions will negate thunderstorm potential. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Persistent eastern US troughing will gradually consolidate with pronounced northwesterly flow aloft developing over central and eastern CONUS. Ridging to the west will further enhanced surface high pressure over the Midwest. With Arctic air and widespread snow cover in place, cool and dry surface conditions will negate thunderstorm potential. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Persistent eastern US troughing will gradually consolidate with pronounced northwesterly flow aloft developing over central and eastern CONUS. Ridging to the west will further enhanced surface high pressure over the Midwest. With Arctic air and widespread snow cover in place, cool and dry surface conditions will negate thunderstorm potential. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the western Florida peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire weather concerns on D2/Tuesday. Relative humidity reductions to 20-30% will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph. There is a chance for some precipitation across the region on D1/Monday, however, this is expected to remain light. An Elevated area was maintained across portions of the western Florida peninsula where the best chances of windy/dry conditions overlap most receptive fuels and lowest precipitation potential. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the western Florida peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire weather concerns on D2/Tuesday. Relative humidity reductions to 20-30% will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph. There is a chance for some precipitation across the region on D1/Monday, however, this is expected to remain light. An Elevated area was maintained across portions of the western Florida peninsula where the best chances of windy/dry conditions overlap most receptive fuels and lowest precipitation potential. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more