Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the western Florida peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire weather concerns on D2/Tuesday. Relative humidity reductions to 20-30% will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph. There is a chance for some precipitation across the region on D1/Monday, however, this is expected to remain light. An Elevated area was maintained across portions of the western Florida peninsula where the best chances of windy/dry conditions overlap most receptive fuels and lowest precipitation potential. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the western Florida peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire weather concerns on D2/Tuesday. Relative humidity reductions to 20-30% will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph. There is a chance for some precipitation across the region on D1/Monday, however, this is expected to remain light. An Elevated area was maintained across portions of the western Florida peninsula where the best chances of windy/dry conditions overlap most receptive fuels and lowest precipitation potential. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be very low today across the CONUS. Recent widespread winter precipitation and rainfall have improved fuels across much of the central/southern Plains with fresh snow pack extending into the Mississippi and Missouri Valleys. In addition, an arctic air mass remains in place across much of the CONUS. Overall, the cold and wet conditions will negate fire spread potential across much of the US. Dry conditions will be possible across the Florida Panhandle as dry northwesterly flow increases behind the passing cold front. Relative humidity reductions around 30-35% may briefly overlap winds 10-15 mph. Cooler temperatures behind the front and some light preceding rainfall should limit broader fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be very low today across the CONUS. Recent widespread winter precipitation and rainfall have improved fuels across much of the central/southern Plains with fresh snow pack extending into the Mississippi and Missouri Valleys. In addition, an arctic air mass remains in place across much of the CONUS. Overall, the cold and wet conditions will negate fire spread potential across much of the US. Dry conditions will be possible across the Florida Panhandle as dry northwesterly flow increases behind the passing cold front. Relative humidity reductions around 30-35% may briefly overlap winds 10-15 mph. Cooler temperatures behind the front and some light preceding rainfall should limit broader fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be very low today across the CONUS. Recent widespread winter precipitation and rainfall have improved fuels across much of the central/southern Plains with fresh snow pack extending into the Mississippi and Missouri Valleys. In addition, an arctic air mass remains in place across much of the CONUS. Overall, the cold and wet conditions will negate fire spread potential across much of the US. Dry conditions will be possible across the Florida Panhandle as dry northwesterly flow increases behind the passing cold front. Relative humidity reductions around 30-35% may briefly overlap winds 10-15 mph. Cooler temperatures behind the front and some light preceding rainfall should limit broader fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be very low today across the CONUS. Recent widespread winter precipitation and rainfall have improved fuels across much of the central/southern Plains with fresh snow pack extending into the Mississippi and Missouri Valleys. In addition, an arctic air mass remains in place across much of the CONUS. Overall, the cold and wet conditions will negate fire spread potential across much of the US. Dry conditions will be possible across the Florida Panhandle as dry northwesterly flow increases behind the passing cold front. Relative humidity reductions around 30-35% may briefly overlap winds 10-15 mph. Cooler temperatures behind the front and some light preceding rainfall should limit broader fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Eastern US troughing will continue Tuesday as multiple perturbations move from the Rockies, Great Lakes and southern Canada toward the Eastern US. At the same time, building ridging over the West will favor northwesterly flow over much of the continent. This will continually reinforce an expansive and cold Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. This will negate meaningful inland moisture return and thunderstorm potential for the next several days. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Eastern US troughing will continue Tuesday as multiple perturbations move from the Rockies, Great Lakes and southern Canada toward the Eastern US. At the same time, building ridging over the West will favor northwesterly flow over much of the continent. This will continually reinforce an expansive and cold Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. This will negate meaningful inland moisture return and thunderstorm potential for the next several days. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Eastern US troughing will continue Tuesday as multiple perturbations move from the Rockies, Great Lakes and southern Canada toward the Eastern US. At the same time, building ridging over the West will favor northwesterly flow over much of the continent. This will continually reinforce an expansive and cold Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. This will negate meaningful inland moisture return and thunderstorm potential for the next several days. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Discussion... Dominant polar air mass will build southeast across lower latitudes which will force a cold front off the southern FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Poor lapse rates and weak large-scale forcing do not favor deep convection capable of generating lightning. Thunderstorm probabilities remain too low to warrant an outlook this period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Discussion... Dominant polar air mass will build southeast across lower latitudes which will force a cold front off the southern FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Poor lapse rates and weak large-scale forcing do not favor deep convection capable of generating lightning. Thunderstorm probabilities remain too low to warrant an outlook this period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Discussion... Dominant polar air mass will build southeast across lower latitudes which will force a cold front off the southern FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Poor lapse rates and weak large-scale forcing do not favor deep convection capable of generating lightning. Thunderstorm probabilities remain too low to warrant an outlook this period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/26/2026 Read more

MD 0066 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...New England into southern and eastern Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 260026Z - 260530Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates on the order of 1-2 inches/hour are expected to linger in portions of New England and gradually spread north into southern and eastern Maine through the late evening hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams continue to depict widespread heavy snowfall across the New England region with visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile or less. This activity continues to be driven primarily by intense warm air advection through a deep layer (approximately from the surface through 4 km AGL based on hodograph curvature in regional VWPs). Latest RAP mesoanalyses also depict strengthening frontogenesis within the warm frontal zone, which is enhancing mesoscale ascent across the region. This frontal zone is expected to gradually shift northward over the next several hours, resulting in a slow northward spread of precipitation. Additionally, recent 00z ALB and GYX soundings both sampled deep saturated profiles with several layers within the dendritic growth zone. These RAOBs align well with recent forecast soundings for the greater New England region and will continue to promote efficient snowfall production. Snowfall rates on the order of 1-2 inches/hour will likely continue for at least a few more hours across portions of New England, and an uptick in snowfall intensity is expected across southern to eastern ME - especially along the ME coastline where heavy snow banding appears most probable based on QPF output from recent CAM solutions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 42197052 41837036 41597050 41447109 41387161 41347230 41357298 41807375 42237391 42927362 43417310 43997209 44707050 45066929 45306827 45416773 45386737 45196704 44826683 44636699 44456734 44296777 44136827 43976884 43826934 43726968 43557006 43267037 42967057 42557064 42197052 Read more

MD 0065 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...southern Virginia...central North Carolina Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 252350Z - 260345Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain accumulations likely this evening. Rates around 0.05-0.10"/hr will be possible. DISCUSSION...Freezing rain reports continue across portions of central north Carolina into southern Virginia. The main heavy precipitation is now shifting just west of the Charlotte Metro into the Richmond Metro. Rates within this line across central North Carolina into southern Virginia have been around 0.05-0.10"/hr. These rates will likely continue within the heavier band of precipitation over the next several hours. A few reports of sleet are also noted at times. RAP forecast sounding data suggests there is a pronounced warm nose atop a rather shallow area sub-freezing air near the surface. The primary precipitation type will likely remain freezing rain with this profile, but a few areas of sleet mixing in will be possible especially further north into Virginia where temperatures are much cooler. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE... LAT...LON 36197924 36977862 37787783 37897709 37647655 36897671 35927693 35337747 35087781 34347909 34678000 35198014 36197924 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is translating across WV early this evening. As a result, primary corridor of warm advection is now focusing across the Middle Atlantic/southern New England where negligible buoyancy is noted. Deep convection has been confined to the trailing cold front across portions of the Southeast, and lightning with this activity has been decreasing over the last few hours. While 00z sounding from JAX exhibits around 300 J/kg MLCAPE, low-level convergence will gradually focus off the Atlantic coast later this evening as the front surges across this region. Given the limited instability, and the primary focus for ascent well north of this region, severe probabilities appear low the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is translating across WV early this evening. As a result, primary corridor of warm advection is now focusing across the Middle Atlantic/southern New England where negligible buoyancy is noted. Deep convection has been confined to the trailing cold front across portions of the Southeast, and lightning with this activity has been decreasing over the last few hours. While 00z sounding from JAX exhibits around 300 J/kg MLCAPE, low-level convergence will gradually focus off the Atlantic coast later this evening as the front surges across this region. Given the limited instability, and the primary focus for ascent well north of this region, severe probabilities appear low the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is translating across WV early this evening. As a result, primary corridor of warm advection is now focusing across the Middle Atlantic/southern New England where negligible buoyancy is noted. Deep convection has been confined to the trailing cold front across portions of the Southeast, and lightning with this activity has been decreasing over the last few hours. While 00z sounding from JAX exhibits around 300 J/kg MLCAPE, low-level convergence will gradually focus off the Atlantic coast later this evening as the front surges across this region. Given the limited instability, and the primary focus for ascent well north of this region, severe probabilities appear low the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/26/2026 Read more

MD 0064 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...northeast Pennsylvania and southeast New York into New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 252102Z - 260100Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue from northeast Pennsylvania to New England this afternoon and into the evening. DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy snow is ongoing across the the Northeast and will continue into the evening. Numerous 6 hour snowfall amounts of 8-9 inches have been received from Long Island to Connecticut, supporting a mean snowfall rate of 1.5 inches per hour. Given radar intensity trends, much of this likely came in the last 3-4 hours, suggesting snowfall rates near 2 inches per hour are likely ongoing. Expect these extreme rates to continue for another 3 to 4 hours from Connecticut to Massachusetts as frontogenesis continues northeastward across New England. Thereafter, continued heavy snow around 1 inch per hour may continue through the evening as the deformation band pivots across the region. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 41236997 41087139 41117322 41007414 40957456 41077581 41287597 41667582 42487471 43257398 43507306 43687185 43747061 43717017 43577015 42987054 42587054 42437075 42207064 42137039 42137008 42006986 41806976 41526988 41236997 Read more

MD 0064 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...northeast Pennsylvania and southeast New York into New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 252102Z - 260100Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue from northeast Pennsylvania to New England this afternoon and into the evening. DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy snow is ongoing across the the Northeast and will continue into the evening. Numerous 6 hour snowfall amounts of 8-9 inches have been received from Long Island to Connecticut, supporting a mean snowfall rate of 1.5 inches per hour. Given radar intensity trends, much of this likely came in the last 3-4 hours, suggesting snowfall rates near 2 inches per hour are likely ongoing. Expect these extreme rates to continue for another 3 to 4 hours from Connecticut to Massachusetts as frontogenesis continues northeastward across New England. Thereafter, continued heavy snow around 1 inch per hour may continue through the evening as the deformation band pivots across the region. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 41236997 41087139 41117322 41007414 40957456 41077581 41287597 41667582 42487471 43257398 43507306 43687185 43747061 43717017 43577015 42987054 42587054 42437075 42207064 42137039 42137008 42006986 41806976 41526988 41236997 Read more

MD 0061 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY INTO LONG ISLAND.
Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...Northern Virginia...Eastern West Virginia...Southern Pennsylvania...Maryland...Delaware...and New Jersey into Long Island. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 252002Z - 260000Z SUMMARY...Sleet continues this afternoon. A brief period of freezing rain is possible by early evening. DISCUSSION...Moderate sleet continues from northern Virginia/eastern West Virginia to Long Island. As expected, the sleet/snow line has advanced north with sleet now reported in New York City and Long Island. From this area and to the southwest, an expansive area of sleet continues. While some guidance precipitation algorithms (such as the HRRR) indicate there may be some freezing rain and ice accretion later this afternoon, confidence in additional icing is low. Forecast soundings where the freezing rain is depicted still show boundary layer temperatures of -10C. Despite it being relatively shallow, it may remain sufficient for refreezing to sleet. By the time the profiles look more supportive for freezing rain, precipitation is coming to an end. Therefore, some pockets of additional icing of 0.1 to 0.2" are possible, but the majority of the precipitation this afternoon and into the early evening will likely fall as sleet. In the wake of the primary precipitation shield, forecast soundings show residual low-level moisture which could result in some freezing drizzle later this evening. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39658006 40167843 40397649 40907442 40927382 40947287 40627298 40447382 40067397 39647410 39147450 38497539 38197695 38027847 38157974 38588031 39658006 Read more