SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day
2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting
precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous
discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's
fire weather forecast.
..Elliott.. 01/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central
US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS.
Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the
southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow
pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low
for D2/Sunday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.
...Synopsis...
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday)
morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the
Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A
constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a
progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over
southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon
hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting
in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a
severe threat along the Gulf Coast.
...Southeast Gulf Coast States...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z
Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a
linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the
development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned
somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning,
delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to
upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints.
Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km),
resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt
west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level
jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will
support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level
curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will
precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon
across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the
severe threat is expected to be greatest.
While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH
ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells
cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg
over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and
400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts
and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be
with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level
hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell
manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the
storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface
low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector.
With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from
central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane
through the day.
..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.
...Synopsis...
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday)
morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the
Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A
constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a
progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over
southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon
hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting
in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a
severe threat along the Gulf Coast.
...Southeast Gulf Coast States...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z
Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a
linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the
development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned
somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning,
delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to
upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints.
Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km),
resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt
west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level
jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will
support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level
curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will
precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon
across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the
severe threat is expected to be greatest.
While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH
ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells
cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg
over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and
400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts
and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be
with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level
hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell
manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the
storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface
low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector.
With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from
central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane
through the day.
..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.
...Synopsis...
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday)
morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the
Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A
constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a
progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over
southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon
hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting
in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a
severe threat along the Gulf Coast.
...Southeast Gulf Coast States...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z
Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a
linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the
development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned
somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning,
delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to
upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints.
Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km),
resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt
west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level
jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will
support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level
curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will
precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon
across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the
severe threat is expected to be greatest.
While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH
ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells
cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg
over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and
400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts
and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be
with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level
hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell
manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the
storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface
low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector.
With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from
central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane
through the day.
..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026
Read more
MD 0041 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA...FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Western and Middle
Tennessee...Far Northern Alabama...Far Northern Mississippi
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 241154Z - 241800Z
SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation is expected this morning
from the Mid-South northeastward into Tennessee and southern
Kentucky, where snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible this
morning.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery across the southeastern
U.S. shows a large area of precipitation from Arkansas extending
eastward to the southern Appalachians. This precipitation is being
supported by strong lift associated with the right entrance region
of an expansive mid-level jet, and by ascent due to a 40 to 50 knot
low-level jet over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The nose of
the low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the Mid-South
and Tennessee Valley this morning, contributing to the maintenance
of widespread precipitation. RAP forecast soundings across the
region have a warm nose from 900 to 700 mb, where temperatures are
forecast to gradually warm to near 0 C after daybreak this morning.
This will result in a wintry mix of precipitation. Snow may continue
in parts of southern Kentucky through midday. However, further south
into western and middle Tennessee, a transition to sleet and
freezing rain will be likely. In far northern Mississippi and far
northern Alabama, the predominant precipitation type will be
freezing rain.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...
LAT...LON 34218753 34058865 34038945 34049004 34139036 34289047
34779050 35858990 36778909 37238805 37328683 37228592
36928511 36488459 35628468 35068514 34588614 34228742
34218753
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.
..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.
..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.
..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today due to
widespread cold and wet conditions across much of the CONUS. Please
see the previous discussion below for additional information on
today's fire weather forecast.
..Elliott.. 01/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A broad
mid-level trough across the central US will continue to bring
several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the
Eastern US today. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in
place across much of the CONUS. These widespread cold and wet
conditions will reduce fire weather concerns and improve status of
fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today due to
widespread cold and wet conditions across much of the CONUS. Please
see the previous discussion below for additional information on
today's fire weather forecast.
..Elliott.. 01/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A broad
mid-level trough across the central US will continue to bring
several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the
Eastern US today. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in
place across much of the CONUS. These widespread cold and wet
conditions will reduce fire weather concerns and improve status of
fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today due to
widespread cold and wet conditions across much of the CONUS. Please
see the previous discussion below for additional information on
today's fire weather forecast.
..Elliott.. 01/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A broad
mid-level trough across the central US will continue to bring
several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the
Eastern US today. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in
place across much of the CONUS. These widespread cold and wet
conditions will reduce fire weather concerns and improve status of
fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0042 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southwest OK
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 241347Z - 241645Z
SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of winter mixed precipitation (mostly
sleet) is possible from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma over
the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Deepening ascent is evident on satellite imagery from
far west TX into northwest TX, downstream of a subtle shortwave
trough moving through the southwesterly flow aloft well ahead of the
upper low off the central Baja California coast. This deepening
ascent has resulting in an expanding area of light to moderate
precipitation now moving into northwest TX. Surface temperatures in
this region are well-below freezing (i.e. lower teens to single
digits), but forecast sounding still show a substantial warm nose.
This profile appears to favor sleet, although some snow could be
mixed in a well. As a result, mixed winter precipitation is
anticipated from northwest TX into southwest TX over the next few
hours. Precipitation rates will generally be light, but modestly
steep lapse rates above the warm nose suggest some embedded moderate
rates are possible.
..Mosier.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 32889896 32979985 33350059 33870119 34630112 35010059
35140013 35189924 34979859 34799814 34459781 34089767
33379798 33019856 32889896
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley/Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just
off the coast of the central Baja Peninsula. Deep southwesterly flow
aloft extends northeastward from this low across Mexico and the
southern Plains before joining the more confluent, single-stream
southwesterlies in place from the MS Valley eastward.
A subtle shortwave trough is currently progressing northeastward
across central TX within the belt of stronger flow preceding the
upper low, contributing to some deeper convective cores over the
region. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue northeastward,
resulting in an expansion of precipitation downstream. Forecast
soundings do show some minimal buoyancy, supporting the potential
for some deeper convective cores capable of lightning. Highest
thunderstorm chances will be concentrated across southern LA, but
low probabilities also exist farther north where low-level profiles
will be cold enough for freezing rain and/or sleet.
The Baja upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the
day, moving across central Mexico and reaching central TX by early
tomorrow morning. Evolution of this low will encourage northeastward
progression of a surface low along the surging arctic cold front.
This will take the low from its current location over deep south TX
quickly northeastward over the northwest Gulf basin, across southern
LA and to the central AL/MS border vicinity. Strong low-level
southerly flow is anticipated ahead of the upper low and associated
surface low as well, with this overall evolution contributing to
rapid airmass modification from the central Gulf Coast into central
AL and MS. Even with this modification, most forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that does not recover adequately for
surface-based convection.
General expectation is for ascent attendant to this system to
support another round of precipitation beginning over east TX after
06Z before expanding northeastward with time. Some very modest
buoyancy is possible atop a strong warm noise, with isolated
elevated thunderstorms possible. This thunder potential includes
areas from east TX across northern/central LA into northern MS where
surface temperatures will be below freezing, suggesting some
lightning is possible with mixed winter precipitation.
...Southwest...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress cyclonically from central
CA into AZ during the period. Cold mid-level temperatures combined
with ascent from the shortwave will support the potential for a few
isolated thunderstorms across central and southeast AZ and southwest
NM from the late afternoon through tonight.
..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley/Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just
off the coast of the central Baja Peninsula. Deep southwesterly flow
aloft extends northeastward from this low across Mexico and the
southern Plains before joining the more confluent, single-stream
southwesterlies in place from the MS Valley eastward.
A subtle shortwave trough is currently progressing northeastward
across central TX within the belt of stronger flow preceding the
upper low, contributing to some deeper convective cores over the
region. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue northeastward,
resulting in an expansion of precipitation downstream. Forecast
soundings do show some minimal buoyancy, supporting the potential
for some deeper convective cores capable of lightning. Highest
thunderstorm chances will be concentrated across southern LA, but
low probabilities also exist farther north where low-level profiles
will be cold enough for freezing rain and/or sleet.
The Baja upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the
day, moving across central Mexico and reaching central TX by early
tomorrow morning. Evolution of this low will encourage northeastward
progression of a surface low along the surging arctic cold front.
This will take the low from its current location over deep south TX
quickly northeastward over the northwest Gulf basin, across southern
LA and to the central AL/MS border vicinity. Strong low-level
southerly flow is anticipated ahead of the upper low and associated
surface low as well, with this overall evolution contributing to
rapid airmass modification from the central Gulf Coast into central
AL and MS. Even with this modification, most forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that does not recover adequately for
surface-based convection.
General expectation is for ascent attendant to this system to
support another round of precipitation beginning over east TX after
06Z before expanding northeastward with time. Some very modest
buoyancy is possible atop a strong warm noise, with isolated
elevated thunderstorms possible. This thunder potential includes
areas from east TX across northern/central LA into northern MS where
surface temperatures will be below freezing, suggesting some
lightning is possible with mixed winter precipitation.
...Southwest...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress cyclonically from central
CA into AZ during the period. Cold mid-level temperatures combined
with ascent from the shortwave will support the potential for a few
isolated thunderstorms across central and southeast AZ and southwest
NM from the late afternoon through tonight.
..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/24/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the
remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in
the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple
perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same
time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor
northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow
for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry
and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through
day 8.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing and strong cyclonic flow aloft will shift
southward over the US before gradually moving offshore Monday. A
second trough is expected to move south out of Canada into the Great
Lakes as it also intensifies. The mid-level flow pattern is forecast
to continue to amplify with troughing persisting over the eastern
US. In turn, ridging is forecast to build over the central and
western portions of the country with increasingly strong
northwesterly flow.
At the surface, a robust and widespread Arctic air mass with strong
high pressure will dominate the lower 48 as a cold front moves
offshore into the Atlantic and down the FL Peninsula. Widespread
winter weather and cold temperatures will largely preclude robust
inland surface moisture outside of coastal south FL. However, weak
lapse rates and only glancing ascent suggests thunderstorm potential
here is low. Thus, thunderstorms and severe weather appear unlikely
over the US on Monday.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
Read more
MD 0038 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR THE TEXARKANA REGION INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Areas affected...The Texarkana Region into southern Arkansas and far
western Mississippi
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 240526Z - 241030Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates are expected to increase across the
Texarkana region into southern Arkansas and far western Mississippi
through the overnight hours. Freezing rain rates between 0.05 to 0.1
inch/hour are possible.
DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures across southern AR into the
Texarkana region are now mostly below freezing despite a slight
abatement of near-surface cold air advection. Several ASOS/AWOS
stations, mPING reports, and web cams have been reporting
predominantly freezing rain with pockets of embedded sleet over the
past couple of hours. Looking upstream, a heavier precipitation band
is noted migrating eastward across north TX/southern OK attendant to
a focused zone of isentropic and frontogenetical ascent at around
850 mb. This uptick in low-level warm advection is noted in regional
VWPs as a steady enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph, which supports
recent analyses and forecasts.
Further strengthening of warm advection/frontogenetical ascent at
around the 850 mb level is expected per recent guidance as the
precipitation band spreads east into southern AR over the next 4-6
hours. Strong ascent combined with persistent warm temperatures at
around 700 mb will maintain a broad swath of freezing rain across
the Texarkana region into southern AR, and will likely promote the
onset of freezing rain to far western MS. Freezing rain rates on the
order of 0.05 inch/hour appear likely, but localized rates up to 0.1
inch/hour appear possible across southwest/south-central AR where
CAM consensus for the past few hours has depicted the highest QPF
amounts (which appear reasonable based on observed banding
upstream).
..Moore.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 32889136 32999414 33229473 33589517 33919537 34229537
34489517 34579469 34619391 34609290 34609163 34559112
34399070 34179042 33959036 33219058 32999086 32889136
Read more
MD 0039 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Central and Northern
Arkansas.
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 240718Z - 241115Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates up to 1 inch per hour, are
expected to develop from parts of far eastern Oklahoma eastward
across much of central and northern Arkansas over the next several
hours. The snow should be mixed with sleet over parts of central
Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough
in the western U.S., with a belt of strong zonal westerly flow over
much of the central and eastern U.S. Lift is currently maximized
over the Ark-La-Tex and southern Ozarks, where a shortwave trough
appears to moving through the flow, and the right exit region of an
expansive mid-level jet is located. Within this zone, radar shows a
large area winter precipitation, which is organized into an
east-to-west band. This band is being supported by strong lift
associated with the northern edge of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet.
As the low-level jet shifts eastward across south-central Arkansas
over the next 3 to 6 hours, isentropic lift will become maximized in
parts of central and northern Arkansas. Snowfall rates are expected
to peak near 1 inch per hour within the heaviest part of the band.
On southern edge of the band, a sleet/snow mix is expected. The
potential for heavy precipitation should continue over the next four
to six hours.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35809038 35429017 35139019 34919024 34569051 34479078
34429160 34439365 34489446 34619484 34899502 35169505
35579494 35969445 36069279 35989086 35809038
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MD 0040 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Northwest/Southwest/North-Central
TX...South-Central/Southeast OK
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 240729Z - 241130Z
SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain and sleet is expected to persist
from southwest Texas into north-central Texas and
south-central/southeast Oklahoma throughout the morning.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations around the region currently place
the freezing line from Bonham (in Fannin County TX) southwestward
through northwest Tarrant County before diving more
south-southwestward through San Saba, TX. This orientation puts much
of the DFW Metroplex just above freezing, with some temperatures
actually increasing a degree or two amid light precipitation and
resultant wet bulbing. Even so, continued cold-air advection is
anticipated, with temperatures eventually dropping below freezing
later this morning. Those areas already below freezing will also see
temperatures continue to decrease throughout the morning.
Current regional radar imagery shows some banding across
north-central TX (northwest of the Metroplex), where strong 850mb
warm-air advection is ongoing. Correlation coefficient from KFWS
suggests most of this is sleet. Additionally, a large area of light
precipitation continues to build upstream of the region amid modest
lift attendant to a subtle lead shortwave trough and continued
isentropic ascent. Expectation is for precipitation to continue
across this region for the next several hours, with sleet as the
prominent p-type across southwest/northwest TX and south-central OK.
Freezing rain will likely become more common across north-central TX
over the next hour or two, with another transition to sleet possible
later this morning as the surface continues to cool.
..Mosier.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33530002 34539740 34689541 33419497 32439587 31120069
32130113 33530002
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST...
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts
are expected to be the primary risk.
...Synopsis...
A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the
central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and
absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and
western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features
will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast,
northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by
Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly
cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface
low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly
flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of
a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air
damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band
of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms
through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon.
...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern
LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong
isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely
support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of
East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With
time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified
warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the
moisture return through the day.
Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will
overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow
for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where
the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature
owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear
plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and
evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but
less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the
day as the main ascent lifts away to the north.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
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