SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move across the central Rockies today, with
a surface low developing across eastern Colorado. A mostly dry cold
front will shift southward across the Southern Plains. Some period
of increasing surface wind (southerly becoming west and northwest as
the front passes) will be possible. Temperatures will remain cool,
with another reinforcing shot of cold arctic air behind the front.
The continued cool conditions in addition to snow pack and generally
wet fuels should keep fire concerns low.
Across portions of the southern Florida Peninsula, dry conditions
will continue. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around
20-25 percent will be likely. Winds are expected to be mostly light,
which will keep fire concerns low.
..Thornton.. 01/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Broad-scale troughing over the eastern US is forecast to continue
Thursday as a shortwave perturbation moves out of the
Rockies/southern Plains into the Southeast. This will allow a weak
surface low to deepen over the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast with a
cold front moving through the southern Plains. A second stronger
trough will move south out of Canada and deepen over the northern US
as western ridging continues to build. This will intensify surface
high pressure over the northern US as a reinforcing surge of Arctic
air moves south. This will keep inland moisture return and
thunderstorm chances minimal Thursday.
..Lyons.. 01/28/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for today.
...Synopsis...
A relatively stable pattern will exist across the CONUS today, with
high pressure affecting most areas. A deep upper low will remain
over Ontario, with broad cyclonic flow aloft encompassing most of
eastern Canada and the USA. With high pressure over land, offshore
flow will keep appreciable low-level moisture well offshore from
Cuba toward the Turks and Caicos.
Precipitation will be possible in association with a shortwave
trough moving across the Great Basin during the day and across the
central and northern Rockies. However, little to no instability is
forecast, and as such thunderstorms appear unlikely.
..Jewell.. 01/28/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur through tonight across parts of
northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Discussion...
An upper trough will quickly move across northern CA and parts of
the Pacific Northwest through tonight, with a weakening trend.
Despite this, increasing lift, cooling aloft and a midlevel moist
plume may support weak SBCAPE near the coast and elevated
instability inland. The weak instability and minimal wind speeds
below 700 mb should preclude any severe risk.
Elsewhere, cool and stable conditions will prevail with an expansive
upper trough east of the Rockies and high pressure.
..Jewell.. 01/28/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
A generally broad northwesterly flow regime will remain in place
over the CONUS through the middle of next week, with multiple
embedded impulses poised to amplify across the northern Plains and
approach the Atlantic coastline through the extended period. This
particular upper-air pattern will reinforce surface high pressure
and an associated sub-freezing airmass across much of the CONUS east
of the Rockies Days 3-8 (Thursday through next Tuesday). Fire
weather spread conditions should be limited over most locales, with
the Florida Peninsula being a possible exception later in the
extended period. Around Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, a cold front should
surge southeast across the Florida Peninsula, with dry and windy
conditions possible in the post-frontal airmass. At the moment, some
disagreement exists regarding how dry/windy these conditions may
become between medium-range guidance members. If greater agreement
in dry/windy conditions becomes apparent in future runs, 40 percent
Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks (assuming no
appreciable rainfall happens in advance).
..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely today.
...Synopsis...
Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today
within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and
eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward
across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong
shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This
evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow.
Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and
cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore
trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection
today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific
Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be
too shallow to produce lightning.
..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.
...01z Update...
Surface front has surged off the southern FL Peninsula and stable
conditions are noted across the CONUS.
..Darrow.. 01/27/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.
...01z Update...
Surface front has surged off the southern FL Peninsula and stable
conditions are noted across the CONUS.
..Darrow.. 01/27/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Longer term ensemble cluster analysis depicts ongoing broad scale
mid-level troughing east of the Continental Divide through at least
through the weekend, with potentially a more progressive wave
pattern emerging by Day 7 or 8 (Sunday-Monday). Colder temperatures,
antecedent moisture and lingering snow cover should largely mitigate
fire weather concerns east of the High Plains. The persistent
northwest flow aloft could bring occasional downslope warming and
drying events to the central and southern High Plains, but stronger
winds should be localized and limited to adjacent lee slopes of the
southern/central Rockies. Ridging across the West will promote dry
and seasonably warm conditions across much of the Southwest through
early next week.
...Florida...
Surface high pressure settling into the Southern Plains and lower MS
River Valley should keep deeper boundary layer moisture shunted
offshore across the Southeast and Florida. Persistent northerly to
northwesterly flow across FL will likely lead to critically low
relative humidity each day through Friday, but subdued lower-level
wind profiles and diffuse surface pressure gradients should limit
breezier winds from developing. Extended model guidance suggests a
stronger surface cyclone developing near FL by Day 6/Saturday,
traversing the East Coast into early next week. Stronger north winds
behind a cold front trailing the low is expected Saturday, but
preceding rainfall should mitigate fire weather concerns prior to
this potentially stronger offshore wind event.
..Williams.. 01/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Longer term ensemble cluster analysis depicts ongoing broad scale
mid-level troughing east of the Continental Divide through at least
through the weekend, with potentially a more progressive wave
pattern emerging by Day 7 or 8 (Sunday-Monday). Colder temperatures,
antecedent moisture and lingering snow cover should largely mitigate
fire weather concerns east of the High Plains. The persistent
northwest flow aloft could bring occasional downslope warming and
drying events to the central and southern High Plains, but stronger
winds should be localized and limited to adjacent lee slopes of the
southern/central Rockies. Ridging across the West will promote dry
and seasonably warm conditions across much of the Southwest through
early next week.
...Florida...
Surface high pressure settling into the Southern Plains and lower MS
River Valley should keep deeper boundary layer moisture shunted
offshore across the Southeast and Florida. Persistent northerly to
northwesterly flow across FL will likely lead to critically low
relative humidity each day through Friday, but subdued lower-level
wind profiles and diffuse surface pressure gradients should limit
breezier winds from developing. Extended model guidance suggests a
stronger surface cyclone developing near FL by Day 6/Saturday,
traversing the East Coast into early next week. Stronger north winds
behind a cold front trailing the low is expected Saturday, but
preceding rainfall should mitigate fire weather concerns prior to
this potentially stronger offshore wind event.
..Williams.. 01/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected.
...Discussion...
Occasional lightning occurred earlier today near the Florida coast
with a weak line of storms that developed along the cold front. This
convective line has weakened/moved far enough offshore to bring an
end to any thunder potential across Florida. A dry,
continental-polar airmass, which has now become established across
much of the CONUS, will continue to limit any thunderstorm
potential.
..Bentley.. 01/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0950 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/
...Discussion including South Florida...
Longwave trough will remain prevalent east of the Rockies, with some
late-day amplification of the upper ridge into the West in advance
of an approaching shortwave trough. High pressure and
cold/continental trajectories will extensively prevail east of the
Rockies, with an exception being ahead of a cold front crossing the
Florida Peninsula. While near-frontal convergence will remain weak,
and mid-level lapse rates are poor, additional boundary layer
warming and deepening convection may be conducive for a few
lightning flashes, mainly near parts of the coastal southeast
Florida Peninsula through afternoon.
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected.
...Discussion...
Occasional lightning occurred earlier today near the Florida coast
with a weak line of storms that developed along the cold front. This
convective line has weakened/moved far enough offshore to bring an
end to any thunder potential across Florida. A dry,
continental-polar airmass, which has now become established across
much of the CONUS, will continue to limit any thunderstorm
potential.
..Bentley.. 01/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0950 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/
...Discussion including South Florida...
Longwave trough will remain prevalent east of the Rockies, with some
late-day amplification of the upper ridge into the West in advance
of an approaching shortwave trough. High pressure and
cold/continental trajectories will extensively prevail east of the
Rockies, with an exception being ahead of a cold front crossing the
Florida Peninsula. While near-frontal convergence will remain weak,
and mid-level lapse rates are poor, additional boundary layer
warming and deepening convection may be conducive for a few
lightning flashes, mainly near parts of the coastal southeast
Florida Peninsula through afternoon.
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Showers along a cold front will continue to progress southeastward
through tonight across southern FL. Post-frontal north winds of
10-15 mph and dry conditions with relative humidity falling into the
20-30 percent range should support an elevated fire weather for the
Southwest FL Coast Tuesday afternoon. Modified elevated highlights
to capture mitigating effects of recent rainfall, primarily south of
the Tampa Bay area.
..Williams.. 01/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the western Florida
peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire weather concerns on
D2/Tuesday. Relative humidity reductions to 20-30% will overlap
sustained winds 10-15 mph. There is a chance for some precipitation
across the region on D1/Monday, however, this is expected to remain
light. An Elevated area was maintained across portions of the
western Florida peninsula where the best chances of windy/dry
conditions overlap most receptive fuels and lowest precipitation
potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Showers along a cold front will continue to progress southeastward
through tonight across southern FL. Post-frontal north winds of
10-15 mph and dry conditions with relative humidity falling into the
20-30 percent range should support an elevated fire weather for the
Southwest FL Coast Tuesday afternoon. Modified elevated highlights
to capture mitigating effects of recent rainfall, primarily south of
the Tampa Bay area.
..Williams.. 01/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the western Florida
peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire weather concerns on
D2/Tuesday. Relative humidity reductions to 20-30% will overlap
sustained winds 10-15 mph. There is a chance for some precipitation
across the region on D1/Monday, however, this is expected to remain
light. An Elevated area was maintained across portions of the
western Florida peninsula where the best chances of windy/dry
conditions overlap most receptive fuels and lowest precipitation
potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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