Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A broad mid-level trough across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US today. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. These widespread cold and wet conditions will reduce fire weather concerns and improve status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least slightly elevated in nature. Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a MRGL Risk. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026 Read more

MD 0035 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0035 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma into far northern Texas and southern Arkansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 232350Z - 240445Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet accumulations are beginning across portions of southern Oklahoma, and are expected to spread east over the next several hours into northern/northeast Texas and southern Arkansas as precipitation increases across the region. Freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River into southern Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics depict two plumes of moderate precipitation with notable bright banding across western TX into southern OK and from central TX into the Texarkana region. These plumes are largely being driven by a combination of deep isentropic upglide over a southward surging frontal zone and a frontogenetic response between 925-850 mb. The forcing mechanisms are expected to gradually shift east through late evening, which will likely result in a prolonged period of precipitation along the Red River into southern AR. At the surface, mPING reports of sleet in Lawton, OK hint that temperatures aloft (especially at around 700 mb) are likely warmer than depicted by recent mesoanalyses and RAP forecast soundings (implying a cold bias aloft). Recent HRRR solutions appear to be better resolving the placement and magnitude of the warm nose aloft (especially when compared with the recent 00z OUN sounding), and suggest that freezing rain should be the predominant precipitation type along/south of the Red River with increasing sleet amounts further north into OK. Although temperatures across southeast OK and southern AR remain above freezing as of 23:45 UTC, temperature falls on the order of 2-3 F/hour are noted in ASOS/OK Mesonet observations, so sub-freezing temperatures are expected within the next 1-3 hours as precipitation overspreads the region. Given these trends and recent model consensus, freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River and into southern AR through 06 UTC. Sleet should be the primary precipitation type with northward extent into OK with moderate to heavy sleet accumulations probable. Given the weak (0.6 C) warm nose at 739 mb in the recent OUN sounding, a transition zone from sleet to moderate/heavy snow will likely manifest in the coming hours roughly along the I-40 corridor as precipitation spreads northeast. ..Moore.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33339522 33569687 33699763 33839838 34129876 34569891 34949874 35149821 35259743 35199689 35099625 34949540 34699379 34539253 34539201 34409166 34159140 33859121 33369118 33159133 33059183 33069250 33339522 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A long-wave trough will continue to translate eastward over much of the CONUS by D3/Sunday. An associated modified Arctic air-mass will encompass most of the central and eastern CONUS into D4/Monday, while precipitation shifts into the South, Mid Atlantic, and New England regions. Additional upper troughs are expected to dive southward out of central Canada throughout next week, with reinforcing cold air masses at the surface maintaining below average temperatures from the Rockies eastward. Further west, however, upper ridging is anticipated to briefly return to the Southwest and Great Basin before another Pacific trough moves onshore mid to late next week. Some precipitation may accompany this feature from CA northward into the Pacific Northwest. Generally, this pattern will keep fire weather concerns low to very low throughout the extended forecast especially across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 23 19:47:01 UTC 2026.

MD 0034 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR WEST TO NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0034 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas affected...west to north TX and southern OK Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 231855Z - 240000Z SUMMARY...A plume of mixed precipitation is expected to substantially increase into early evening from west to north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Sleet should be the primary precipitation type, with the freezing rain line gradually shifting south. Initial rates should generally be light, before increasing tonight. DISCUSSION...Initial swath of precipitation has been increasing over the past few hours across the South Plains to central TX. The northern extent of this precip shield is about to overspread a southward-moving nose of sub-freezing surface temperatures across the Low Rolling Plains, centered on the surface ridge over northwest TX. This should initially impact areas near to southeast of LBB, but will increase greatly in areal coverage by late afternoon into early evening. Light freezing rain should be anticipated where surface temps remain in the 29-32 F range. Sleet should be the overarching PTYPE through 00Z as low-level warm theta-e advection in the 850-700 mb layer maintains an above-freezing warm nose atop the increasingly cold boundary layer. Pervasive surface dry advection will slow the northern extent of winter precip reaching the surface, especially in OK, through early evening. This should also aid in yielding generally light liquid-equivalent rates until tonight. ..Grams.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32100095 32060243 32580359 33040380 33540343 34530026 34909770 34659610 34229569 33839585 33669688 32479983 32100095 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI,...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night, accompanied by some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Within a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies, models suggest that positively tilted larger-scale mid-level troughing may continue to consolidate while progressing across and east of the Mississippi Valley during this period, downstream of broad mid-level ridging within split flow developing inland of the Pacific coast into Intermountain West. In its wake, it appears that another notable cold surface ridge will build south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night. Ahead of it, models indicate that the remnants of a preceding Arctic intrusion will undergo more substantive modification, but, coupled with weak inland upper forcing, probably not enough to support significant frontal surface cyclogenesis across the Allegheny Plateau or Southeast. ...Eastern Gulf Coast states... Guidance currently suggests that low-level thermal and moisture advection, supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, may be confined to a narrow inland spreading corridor across southeastern Louisiana through portions of southern/eastern Alabama and adjacent Georgia during the day Sunday, before being undercut/cut off by a developing cold front. It appears that this will coincide with, but generally trail to the southwest of, a modest to weak developing frontal wave across the Piedmont of Alabama into Georgia. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreading the destabilizing environment will probably still contribute to shear potentially conducive to organized convective development. This may include sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the pre-cold frontal warm advection regime. However, forecast soundings suggest that these low-level hodographs will trend more linear, as the initially stable boundary-layer destabilizes. So the risk for tornadoes seems rather limited, but there may be a window for an evolving line of storms with potential to produce strong surface wind gusts, particularly across parts of southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western North America, it still appears that several short wave troughs will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley through this period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the southern Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and currently in the form of a mid-level low as it digs toward Baja, is forecast to undergo considerable deformation while being forced eastward, then northeastward, across the northern Mexican Plateau into the southern Great Plains by late Saturday night. This is being preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity. While highest surface pressures centered across the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes at the outset of the period are forecast to continue to fall while shifting northeastward, it appears that the residual Arctic air mass will impede significant inland surface cyclogenesis. Models do still indicate modest deepening of surface troughing in one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley (as well as in another near/offshore of the Carolina coast) by late Saturday through Saturday night. Elevated moisture return above the cold air to the north and northwest of this feature appears likely to be accompanied by weak destabilization. However, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization along the surface trough axis, inland across southeastern Louisiana through southeastern/east central Mississippi and adjacent western Alabama by 12Z Sunday, appears unlikely. This is expected to minimize the risk for severe weather. ...Southern Great Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Convection allowing output and other guidance suggest that the most substantive potential for thunderstorm development will largely focus just to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, near/inland of mid/upper Texas Gulf coastal areas through Louisiana and central/southwestern Mississippi Saturday through Saturday night.. Layers of developing weak conditional and convective instability further aloft, and to the west through north, might become supportive of convective development capable of producing lightning, anywhere from the Texas South Plains and Big Country into the Mid South. The extent of this potential remains a bit unclear due to spread evident in the model output. However, further adjustments to the 10 percent thunder line may be needed in subsequent outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The fire weather risk will remain low today. No changes were required. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS today. A mid-level trough and southward moving cold front will usher in cold conditions and widespread mix of precipitation into the central and southern Plains, improving dry fuels and keeping fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. ..Hart/Grams.. 01/23/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 23 09:56:01 UTC 2026.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday. ...Synopsis... Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability and some potential for strong to severe storms. ...Gulf Coast... As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~ 500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday. ...Synopsis... Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability and some potential for strong to severe storms. ...Gulf Coast... As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~ 500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more