Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS today. A mid-level trough and southward moving cold front will usher in cold conditions and widespread mix of precipitation into the central and southern Plains, improving dry fuels and keeping fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS today. A mid-level trough and southward moving cold front will usher in cold conditions and widespread mix of precipitation into the central and southern Plains, improving dry fuels and keeping fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday night. As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central US much of Saturday. ...South Texas Coast... As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe risk appears quite limited. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday night. As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central US much of Saturday. ...South Texas Coast... As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe risk appears quite limited. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain. Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture. ...Big Bend Region to Central Texas... Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2 to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the potential for severe convection. A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively low probability scenario. ..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain. Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture. ...Big Bend Region to Central Texas... Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2 to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the potential for severe convection. A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively low probability scenario. ..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 22 03:17:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0031 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0914 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southwestern NY and northwestern PA Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 220314Z - 220545Z SUMMARY...A snow squall will continue tracking eastward across parts of southwestern New York and northwestern Pennsylvania during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A snow squall has recently organized/intensified as it moves eastward out of Ontario Canada. As the squall passed over KBUF, visibility dropped to 1/8 mile with a 28-kt gust. As ascent in the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet streak continues overspreading western NY, the snow squall will continue tracking eastward along an associated surface winds shift during the next few hours. Around 40-45 kt of west-southwesterly flow in the lowest 1 km AGL (sampled by regional VWPs) and modestly steepened low-level lapse rates will continue to support strong gusts and visibility reductions of 1/4 mile or less in bursts of heavy snow. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41528029 42327910 43377777 43447723 43407677 43187641 42807632 42277675 41607749 41227817 40977886 40927942 40997995 41198031 41528029 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of far east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Additionally, a few lightning strikes may be possible late tonight across southeast Florida. ... 01Z Update... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States this evening and tonight. A few lightning strikes may be possible across a couple different areas. ... Far East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley ... A mid-level short-wave trough continues to through the larger-scale eastern US trough. Modest low-level warm advection associated with this short-wave trough will continue to support showers and a lightning strike or two across the area tonight. ... Southeast Florida ... A subtle short-wave trough and associated mid-level speed maximum will move northeast from the Gulf across northern Florida within the subtropical jet. Modest large-scale ascent associated with the right entrance region of this speed max may support showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two very late tonight. ..Marsh.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. ..Hart/Lyons.. 01/21/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 21 16:21:02 UTC 2026.

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 21 16:21:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to support severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to support severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more