Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more