MD 0029 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Areas affected...Downwind of Lake Ontario
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 200224Z - 200830Z
SUMMARY...A lake effect snow band will gradually intensify tonight,
with rates eventually approaching 2-4 inches per hour downwind of
Lake Ontario.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from KTYX shows gradually
organizing lake effect snow bands extending downwind of Lake
Ontario. This is in response to subtle veering of uni-directional
boundary-layer flow (sampled by KTYX VWP) and a favorable fetch
developing across the long axis of Lake Ontario. This trend will
continue over the next few hours, as a low-level cyclone and
southward-extending surface trough continue advancing
east-northeastward across Quebec. Additionally, cooling temperatures
aloft (around -31C at 700 mb) will result in a deepening convective
boundary layer -- further aiding in the intensification of lake
effect snow bands extending across the Tug Hill Plateau and
vicinity. Heavy snowfall rates of around 2-4 inches per hour are
expected to begin in the 04-06Z time frame, and should continue
through the early morning hours.
..Weinman.. 01/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43947626 43977539 43857511 43537507 43387524 43387618
43467640 43667642 43947626
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be
located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass
will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over
the continental U.S. today and tonight.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be
located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass
will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over
the continental U.S. today and tonight.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be
located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass
will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over
the continental U.S. today and tonight.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be
located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass
will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over
the continental U.S. today and tonight.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry
airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over
much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop
across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 01/20/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry
airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over
much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop
across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 01/20/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry
airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over
much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop
across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 01/20/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry
airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over
much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop
across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 01/20/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
Reduced fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS through
early next week. An arctic air mass intrusion begins Day 4/Thursday
across the Northern Plains as upper-level troughing impinges on
coastal California. The upper-level trough moves into the Southwest
and Southern Plains by Day 5/Friday, interacting with deeper Gulf
moisture to support expansive precipitation across much of the
Southern U.S. through the weekend as the trough translates eastward.
The lingering cold and stable air mass across the eastern U.S. along
with likely widespread rain and potential snow over much of the
Southern U.S. should mitigate the overall fire weather threat
through early next week.
..Williams.. 01/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
Reduced fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS through
early next week. An arctic air mass intrusion begins Day 4/Thursday
across the Northern Plains as upper-level troughing impinges on
coastal California. The upper-level trough moves into the Southwest
and Southern Plains by Day 5/Friday, interacting with deeper Gulf
moisture to support expansive precipitation across much of the
Southern U.S. through the weekend as the trough translates eastward.
The lingering cold and stable air mass across the eastern U.S. along
with likely widespread rain and potential snow over much of the
Southern U.S. should mitigate the overall fire weather threat
through early next week.
..Williams.. 01/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
Reduced fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS through
early next week. An arctic air mass intrusion begins Day 4/Thursday
across the Northern Plains as upper-level troughing impinges on
coastal California. The upper-level trough moves into the Southwest
and Southern Plains by Day 5/Friday, interacting with deeper Gulf
moisture to support expansive precipitation across much of the
Southern U.S. through the weekend as the trough translates eastward.
The lingering cold and stable air mass across the eastern U.S. along
with likely widespread rain and potential snow over much of the
Southern U.S. should mitigate the overall fire weather threat
through early next week.
..Williams.. 01/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
Reduced fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS through
early next week. An arctic air mass intrusion begins Day 4/Thursday
across the Northern Plains as upper-level troughing impinges on
coastal California. The upper-level trough moves into the Southwest
and Southern Plains by Day 5/Friday, interacting with deeper Gulf
moisture to support expansive precipitation across much of the
Southern U.S. through the weekend as the trough translates eastward.
The lingering cold and stable air mass across the eastern U.S. along
with likely widespread rain and potential snow over much of the
Southern U.S. should mitigate the overall fire weather threat
through early next week.
..Williams.. 01/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Central High Plains...
An approaching mid-level wave and associated increasing northwest
flow aloft, coinciding with a deepening surface low in the lee of
the Southern Rockies will support downslope enhanced west/northwest
surface winds across portions of the central High Plains Tuesday.
Only minor changes were needed to the existing Elevated highlights
across far northeastern CO, extreme southeastern WY, southwestern NE
and far northwestern KS to account for recent snowfall from the CO
Front Range into western KS. Farther south, downslope enhanced
drying and warming should result in relative humidity as low as 10
percent Tuesday. This aligned with sustained west winds of 15-20 mph
and dry fuels will support at least elevated fire weather conditions
for several hours in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Range. Locally
critical conditions are possible where wind speeds of 25 mph develop
in favored terrain gaps. Thus, Elevated highlights were introduced
across portions of south-central CO.
..Williams.. 01/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel
impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central
Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same
time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the
northern/central High Plains.
This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across
parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and
around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity
(especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast
some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be
monitored for future adjustments to these highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Central High Plains...
An approaching mid-level wave and associated increasing northwest
flow aloft, coinciding with a deepening surface low in the lee of
the Southern Rockies will support downslope enhanced west/northwest
surface winds across portions of the central High Plains Tuesday.
Only minor changes were needed to the existing Elevated highlights
across far northeastern CO, extreme southeastern WY, southwestern NE
and far northwestern KS to account for recent snowfall from the CO
Front Range into western KS. Farther south, downslope enhanced
drying and warming should result in relative humidity as low as 10
percent Tuesday. This aligned with sustained west winds of 15-20 mph
and dry fuels will support at least elevated fire weather conditions
for several hours in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Range. Locally
critical conditions are possible where wind speeds of 25 mph develop
in favored terrain gaps. Thus, Elevated highlights were introduced
across portions of south-central CO.
..Williams.. 01/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel
impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central
Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same
time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the
northern/central High Plains.
This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across
parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and
around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity
(especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast
some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be
monitored for future adjustments to these highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Central High Plains...
An approaching mid-level wave and associated increasing northwest
flow aloft, coinciding with a deepening surface low in the lee of
the Southern Rockies will support downslope enhanced west/northwest
surface winds across portions of the central High Plains Tuesday.
Only minor changes were needed to the existing Elevated highlights
across far northeastern CO, extreme southeastern WY, southwestern NE
and far northwestern KS to account for recent snowfall from the CO
Front Range into western KS. Farther south, downslope enhanced
drying and warming should result in relative humidity as low as 10
percent Tuesday. This aligned with sustained west winds of 15-20 mph
and dry fuels will support at least elevated fire weather conditions
for several hours in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Range. Locally
critical conditions are possible where wind speeds of 25 mph develop
in favored terrain gaps. Thus, Elevated highlights were introduced
across portions of south-central CO.
..Williams.. 01/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel
impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central
Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same
time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the
northern/central High Plains.
This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across
parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and
around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity
(especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast
some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be
monitored for future adjustments to these highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Central High Plains...
An approaching mid-level wave and associated increasing northwest
flow aloft, coinciding with a deepening surface low in the lee of
the Southern Rockies will support downslope enhanced west/northwest
surface winds across portions of the central High Plains Tuesday.
Only minor changes were needed to the existing Elevated highlights
across far northeastern CO, extreme southeastern WY, southwestern NE
and far northwestern KS to account for recent snowfall from the CO
Front Range into western KS. Farther south, downslope enhanced
drying and warming should result in relative humidity as low as 10
percent Tuesday. This aligned with sustained west winds of 15-20 mph
and dry fuels will support at least elevated fire weather conditions
for several hours in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Range. Locally
critical conditions are possible where wind speeds of 25 mph develop
in favored terrain gaps. Thus, Elevated highlights were introduced
across portions of south-central CO.
..Williams.. 01/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel
impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central
Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same
time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the
northern/central High Plains.
This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across
parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and
around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity
(especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast
some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be
monitored for future adjustments to these highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0028 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Areas affected...Pennsylvania into western New York
Concerning...Snow Squall
Valid 191650Z - 192045Z
SUMMARY...Occasional visibility reductions associated with
moderate/heavy snow showers and gusty winds may spread east across
parts of Pennsylvania and into western New York through the
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of snow showers migrating across eastern OH
and western PA over the past few hours have yielded occasional
visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile per regional web cams and
ASOS observations. These visibility reductions are largely being
driven by moderate to heavy snowfall rates within shallow, but
convectively augmented, snow showers ahead of a progressive
mid-level wave evident in GOES imagery. Strong cold advection
through 850 mb will continue to support 25-35 mph wind gusts, which
will further contribute to periods of low visibility by blowing
falling snow and the antecedent snow pack in place across western
PA. As such, periods of snow squall conditions should spread
east/northeast through mid-afternoon in tandem with the upper wave
and the surging low-level cold air mass.
..Moore.. 01/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 40088011 40158059 40468072 41068072 41588055 41898026
42797841 42867780 42807704 42447635 42117596 41627592
41247586 40767613 40477662 40088011
Read more
