Storm Prediction Center

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 18 23:55:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Large scale upper-level troughing is expected to persist across the eastern U.S. through midweek while drier and above seasonal warmth under ridging is expected across much of the West. Longer term model guidance suggests a breakdown of the persistent ridge across the northeastern Pacific, inviting an upper-level trough into the Southwest by the weekend while a cold front transfers a much colder air mass into the eastern U.S. Widespread precipitation attributed to the upper trough and surface cold front across the Southwest, Southern Plains and Southeast should mitigate fire weather concerns over the weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Central High Plains... An upper-level short wave moving into the central/southern Rockies within broad northwest flow aloft and attendant lee cyclone development in the central High Plains on Day 3/Tuesday could bring a brief fire weather threat to portions of the central High Plains. Snowfall preceding this downslope-enhanced event on Day 2/Monday could mitigate fire weather concerns for much of north-central and east-central CO into western KS. The most likely snow-free area will be across far northeastern CO into the southwest NE, where recent fire activity has occurred and receptive fuels remain. Introduced 40% critical probabilities for this area within a zone of stronger west-northwest winds, low relative humidity and seasonably warm temperatures. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Large scale upper-level troughing is expected to persist across the eastern U.S. through midweek while drier and above seasonal warmth under ridging is expected across much of the West. Longer term model guidance suggests a breakdown of the persistent ridge across the northeastern Pacific, inviting an upper-level trough into the Southwest by the weekend while a cold front transfers a much colder air mass into the eastern U.S. Widespread precipitation attributed to the upper trough and surface cold front across the Southwest, Southern Plains and Southeast should mitigate fire weather concerns over the weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Central High Plains... An upper-level short wave moving into the central/southern Rockies within broad northwest flow aloft and attendant lee cyclone development in the central High Plains on Day 3/Tuesday could bring a brief fire weather threat to portions of the central High Plains. Snowfall preceding this downslope-enhanced event on Day 2/Monday could mitigate fire weather concerns for much of north-central and east-central CO into western KS. The most likely snow-free area will be across far northeastern CO into the southwest NE, where recent fire activity has occurred and receptive fuels remain. Introduced 40% critical probabilities for this area within a zone of stronger west-northwest winds, low relative humidity and seasonably warm temperatures. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Large scale upper-level troughing is expected to persist across the eastern U.S. through midweek while drier and above seasonal warmth under ridging is expected across much of the West. Longer term model guidance suggests a breakdown of the persistent ridge across the northeastern Pacific, inviting an upper-level trough into the Southwest by the weekend while a cold front transfers a much colder air mass into the eastern U.S. Widespread precipitation attributed to the upper trough and surface cold front across the Southwest, Southern Plains and Southeast should mitigate fire weather concerns over the weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Central High Plains... An upper-level short wave moving into the central/southern Rockies within broad northwest flow aloft and attendant lee cyclone development in the central High Plains on Day 3/Tuesday could bring a brief fire weather threat to portions of the central High Plains. Snowfall preceding this downslope-enhanced event on Day 2/Monday could mitigate fire weather concerns for much of north-central and east-central CO into western KS. The most likely snow-free area will be across far northeastern CO into the southwest NE, where recent fire activity has occurred and receptive fuels remain. Introduced 40% critical probabilities for this area within a zone of stronger west-northwest winds, low relative humidity and seasonably warm temperatures. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Large scale upper-level troughing is expected to persist across the eastern U.S. through midweek while drier and above seasonal warmth under ridging is expected across much of the West. Longer term model guidance suggests a breakdown of the persistent ridge across the northeastern Pacific, inviting an upper-level trough into the Southwest by the weekend while a cold front transfers a much colder air mass into the eastern U.S. Widespread precipitation attributed to the upper trough and surface cold front across the Southwest, Southern Plains and Southeast should mitigate fire weather concerns over the weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Central High Plains... An upper-level short wave moving into the central/southern Rockies within broad northwest flow aloft and attendant lee cyclone development in the central High Plains on Day 3/Tuesday could bring a brief fire weather threat to portions of the central High Plains. Snowfall preceding this downslope-enhanced event on Day 2/Monday could mitigate fire weather concerns for much of north-central and east-central CO into western KS. The most likely snow-free area will be across far northeastern CO into the southwest NE, where recent fire activity has occurred and receptive fuels remain. Introduced 40% critical probabilities for this area within a zone of stronger west-northwest winds, low relative humidity and seasonably warm temperatures. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20 Update... The thunder area was removed from the southern Florida Peninsula as activity has moved offshore. Thunder chances are expected to be less than 10% across the CONUS through the end of the period. ..Thornton.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026/ ...Discussion including South Florida... A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front, somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and the front progresses offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20 Update... The thunder area was removed from the southern Florida Peninsula as activity has moved offshore. Thunder chances are expected to be less than 10% across the CONUS through the end of the period. ..Thornton.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026/ ...Discussion including South Florida... A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front, somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and the front progresses offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20 Update... The thunder area was removed from the southern Florida Peninsula as activity has moved offshore. Thunder chances are expected to be less than 10% across the CONUS through the end of the period. ..Thornton.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026/ ...Discussion including South Florida... A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front, somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and the front progresses offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20 Update... The thunder area was removed from the southern Florida Peninsula as activity has moved offshore. Thunder chances are expected to be less than 10% across the CONUS through the end of the period. ..Thornton.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026/ ...Discussion including South Florida... A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front, somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and the front progresses offshore. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Surface high pressure settling Ozark Plateau will give rise to increasing southeasterly flow of 10-15 mph across southern/central TX. A residual dry air mass in place should result in RH reductions in the 15-20% range as temperatures quickly rise into the lower 60s by Sunday afternoon. Brief elevated fire weather concerns are possible across the Edwards Plateau of TX on Sunday, but potential for a widespread fire weather threat remains low. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. east of the Rockies dominated by cooler temperatures and surface high pressure on Monday, no fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Surface high pressure settling Ozark Plateau will give rise to increasing southeasterly flow of 10-15 mph across southern/central TX. A residual dry air mass in place should result in RH reductions in the 15-20% range as temperatures quickly rise into the lower 60s by Sunday afternoon. Brief elevated fire weather concerns are possible across the Edwards Plateau of TX on Sunday, but potential for a widespread fire weather threat remains low. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. east of the Rockies dominated by cooler temperatures and surface high pressure on Monday, no fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Surface high pressure settling Ozark Plateau will give rise to increasing southeasterly flow of 10-15 mph across southern/central TX. A residual dry air mass in place should result in RH reductions in the 15-20% range as temperatures quickly rise into the lower 60s by Sunday afternoon. Brief elevated fire weather concerns are possible across the Edwards Plateau of TX on Sunday, but potential for a widespread fire weather threat remains low. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. east of the Rockies dominated by cooler temperatures and surface high pressure on Monday, no fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Surface high pressure settling Ozark Plateau will give rise to increasing southeasterly flow of 10-15 mph across southern/central TX. A residual dry air mass in place should result in RH reductions in the 15-20% range as temperatures quickly rise into the lower 60s by Sunday afternoon. Brief elevated fire weather concerns are possible across the Edwards Plateau of TX on Sunday, but potential for a widespread fire weather threat remains low. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. east of the Rockies dominated by cooler temperatures and surface high pressure on Monday, no fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Dry/stable conditions for lightning-producing convection should persist across the CONUS through the period. The next in a series of shortwave troughs should progress from the Canadian Rockies towards the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys. A weak surface cyclone should similarly track from the northern High Plains to near Lake MI. This will support onshore air mass modification along the TX Gulf Coast. Scant but shallow buoyancy should reach the immediate south TX coast by 12Z Wednesday, with flimsy elevated buoyancy possible northward across east TX. Given poor-quality thermodynamics and only weak large-scale ascent, thunderstorm potential in TX appears negligible. ..Grams.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Dry/stable conditions for lightning-producing convection should persist across the CONUS through the period. The next in a series of shortwave troughs should progress from the Canadian Rockies towards the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys. A weak surface cyclone should similarly track from the northern High Plains to near Lake MI. This will support onshore air mass modification along the TX Gulf Coast. Scant but shallow buoyancy should reach the immediate south TX coast by 12Z Wednesday, with flimsy elevated buoyancy possible northward across east TX. Given poor-quality thermodynamics and only weak large-scale ascent, thunderstorm potential in TX appears negligible. ..Grams.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Dry/stable conditions for lightning-producing convection should persist across the CONUS through the period. The next in a series of shortwave troughs should progress from the Canadian Rockies towards the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys. A weak surface cyclone should similarly track from the northern High Plains to near Lake MI. This will support onshore air mass modification along the TX Gulf Coast. Scant but shallow buoyancy should reach the immediate south TX coast by 12Z Wednesday, with flimsy elevated buoyancy possible northward across east TX. Given poor-quality thermodynamics and only weak large-scale ascent, thunderstorm potential in TX appears negligible. ..Grams.. 01/18/2026 Read more

MD 0027 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0848 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...northeast South Dakota...northwest Minnesota Concerning...Blizzard Valid 181448Z - 181945Z SUMMARY...Ground blizzard conditions are expected to become more widespread through late morning/early afternoon across eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and far northeast South Dakota. DISCUSSION...14z surface observations show northerly winds beginning to increase to 25-35 mph across northeast ND and far northwest MN as a very cold (-5 to 5 F) air mass begins to push southward into the Red River Valley of the North. Based on current wind speeds, temperatures, and the condition of the existing snow pack (per NORSC analyses), blowing snow model output suggests that visibility reductions to 1/4 mile or less should become increasingly common, especially in open country. This is supported by recent web/plow cams across the region that depict somewhat reduced visibility within towns/sheltered areas but significant reductions in open country. Reflectivity data from upstream radars in southern Manitoba are also depicting light reflectivity streamers often indicative of plumes of blowing snow which likely correlate with the most significant visibility reductions. These conditions should become more widespread through the late morning and early afternoon as the arctic air mass continues to surge south - especially as wind speeds increase into the 30-35 mph range, which should correlate with scattered to widespread ground blizzard conditions per blowing snow model output. Similar wind speeds were observed yesterday and resulted in sustained 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility reductions, so confidence is high in ground blizzard impacts, even into areas immediately south of the existing snow pack. ..Moore.. 01/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 49030012 49079652 48979623 45859548 45419566 45229614 45139680 45139734 45389788 48450071 48850087 49030070 49030012 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. A surface trough across the Central Plains and surface anticylone over southern TX will promote dry, west-southwest flow across portions of the Southern Plains through this afternoon. Clear skies will allow for more efficient mixing of a very dry, albeit shallow boundary layer through the afternoon resulting in sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity falling into the 10-20% range over central/northwestern TX and southern OK. Model guidance continues to suggest a locally critical fire weather threat evolving across northwest TX this afternoon, but sustained 20 mph winds should be transitory limiting a broader impact. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions with winds out of the west-southwest owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of Central Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... Downslope west-southwesterly surface winds across western and central Texas will reach 15-20 MPH in a dry post-frontal airmass characterized by relative humidity of 10-20%. With fuels sufficiently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast. Locally Critical conditions may occur where winds exceed 20 MPH for short periods of time, though 00Z HREF guidance suggests low confidence in 3+ hours sustained winds of 20 MPH which would preclude additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. A surface trough across the Central Plains and surface anticylone over southern TX will promote dry, west-southwest flow across portions of the Southern Plains through this afternoon. Clear skies will allow for more efficient mixing of a very dry, albeit shallow boundary layer through the afternoon resulting in sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity falling into the 10-20% range over central/northwestern TX and southern OK. Model guidance continues to suggest a locally critical fire weather threat evolving across northwest TX this afternoon, but sustained 20 mph winds should be transitory limiting a broader impact. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions with winds out of the west-southwest owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of Central Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... Downslope west-southwesterly surface winds across western and central Texas will reach 15-20 MPH in a dry post-frontal airmass characterized by relative humidity of 10-20%. With fuels sufficiently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast. Locally Critical conditions may occur where winds exceed 20 MPH for short periods of time, though 00Z HREF guidance suggests low confidence in 3+ hours sustained winds of 20 MPH which would preclude additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. A surface trough across the Central Plains and surface anticylone over southern TX will promote dry, west-southwest flow across portions of the Southern Plains through this afternoon. Clear skies will allow for more efficient mixing of a very dry, albeit shallow boundary layer through the afternoon resulting in sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity falling into the 10-20% range over central/northwestern TX and southern OK. Model guidance continues to suggest a locally critical fire weather threat evolving across northwest TX this afternoon, but sustained 20 mph winds should be transitory limiting a broader impact. ..Williams.. 01/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions with winds out of the west-southwest owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of Central Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... Downslope west-southwesterly surface winds across western and central Texas will reach 15-20 MPH in a dry post-frontal airmass characterized by relative humidity of 10-20%. With fuels sufficiently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast. Locally Critical conditions may occur where winds exceed 20 MPH for short periods of time, though 00Z HREF guidance suggests low confidence in 3+ hours sustained winds of 20 MPH which would preclude additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more