Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes. ..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America during this period. However, it appears that the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It appears that this may be accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra Nevada. However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development, will likely remain offshore through at least this period. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. It appears that weak boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas. However, elevated inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America during this period. However, it appears that the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It appears that this may be accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra Nevada. However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development, will likely remain offshore through at least this period. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. It appears that weak boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas. However, elevated inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America during this period. However, it appears that the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It appears that this may be accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra Nevada. However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development, will likely remain offshore through at least this period. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. It appears that weak boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas. However, elevated inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America (across and east of the Rockies). While little change in amplitude is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening. As a developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex... It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is likely to mainly emanate from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels. While forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America (across and east of the Rockies). While little change in amplitude is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening. As a developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex... It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is likely to mainly emanate from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels. While forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America (across and east of the Rockies). While little change in amplitude is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening. As a developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex... It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is likely to mainly emanate from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels. While forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida Panhandle... Dry, post-frontal northerly to northeasterly surface winds of 10 mph (15 mph locally) across FL coinciding with RH reductions in the 20-30% range will yield an increased fire weather concern over the western/southwestern FL Panhandle through the afternoon. However, cooler temperatures and marginally receptive fuels should limit a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida Panhandle... Dry, post-frontal northerly to northeasterly surface winds of 10 mph (15 mph locally) across FL coinciding with RH reductions in the 20-30% range will yield an increased fire weather concern over the western/southwestern FL Panhandle through the afternoon. However, cooler temperatures and marginally receptive fuels should limit a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida Panhandle... Dry, post-frontal northerly to northeasterly surface winds of 10 mph (15 mph locally) across FL coinciding with RH reductions in the 20-30% range will yield an increased fire weather concern over the western/southwestern FL Panhandle through the afternoon. However, cooler temperatures and marginally receptive fuels should limit a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida Panhandle... Dry, post-frontal northerly to northeasterly surface winds of 10 mph (15 mph locally) across FL coinciding with RH reductions in the 20-30% range will yield an increased fire weather concern over the western/southwestern FL Panhandle through the afternoon. However, cooler temperatures and marginally receptive fuels should limit a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL, where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon. A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With large-scale upper troughing remaining dominant over the central/eastern CONUS today, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will prove hostile to thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Gleason.. 01/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With large-scale upper troughing remaining dominant over the central/eastern CONUS today, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will prove hostile to thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Gleason.. 01/19/2026 Read more