Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will move across the east-central U.S. today, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place over the eastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will settle in over the western and central Gulf Coast states, as a front moves southward across the Florida Peninsula. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the front in south Florida, where surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In the early to mid afternoon, thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front. Deep-layer and instability are expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will move across the east-central U.S. today, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place over the eastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will settle in over the western and central Gulf Coast states, as a front moves southward across the Florida Peninsula. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the front in south Florida, where surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In the early to mid afternoon, thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front. Deep-layer and instability are expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. east of the Rockies dominated by cooler temperatures and surface high pressure on Monday, no fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ..Halbert.. 01/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. east of the Rockies dominated by cooler temperatures and surface high pressure on Monday, no fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ..Halbert.. 01/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions with winds out of the west-southwest owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of Central Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... Downslope west-southwesterly surface winds across western and central Texas will reach 15-20 MPH in a dry post-frontal airmass characterized by relative humidity of 10-20%. With fuels sufficiently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast. Locally Critical conditions may occur where winds exceed 20 MPH for short periods of time, though 00Z HREF guidance suggests low confidence in 3+ hours sustained winds of 20 MPH which would preclude additional highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions with winds out of the west-southwest owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of Central Texas into southern Oklahoma. ...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma... Downslope west-southwesterly surface winds across western and central Texas will reach 15-20 MPH in a dry post-frontal airmass characterized by relative humidity of 10-20%. With fuels sufficiently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast. Locally Critical conditions may occur where winds exceed 20 MPH for short periods of time, though 00Z HREF guidance suggests low confidence in 3+ hours sustained winds of 20 MPH which would preclude additional highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the central and eastern U.S. this evening into tonight, as a shortwave mid-level trough moves across the southern Plains. At the surface, a large high pressure area will remain in place over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. The pattern, along with a dry and cold airmass, will limit thunderstorm potential across the nation through early morning on Sunday. ..Broyles.. 01/18/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the central and eastern U.S. this evening into tonight, as a shortwave mid-level trough moves across the southern Plains. At the surface, a large high pressure area will remain in place over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. The pattern, along with a dry and cold airmass, will limit thunderstorm potential across the nation through early morning on Sunday. ..Broyles.. 01/18/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 17 22:07:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0025 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0025 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Areas affected...western/central NY and northern PA Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 172038Z - 172345Z SUMMARY...Long-lived snow squall may persist into early evening, while likely diminishing in areal extent/intensity. DISCUSSION...A long-lived snow squall which began west of Cleveland, has recently passed through the Buffalo Metro Area, with numerous first-order observing sites along Lake Erie having recorded half-mile or less visibilities and gusts of 30-40 kts. More sporadic snow squall conditions have been noted along the trailing portion of the band that is now in western PA. A pocket of warmer surface temperatures in western NY may help sustain the squall near the Lake Ontario vicinity into early evening before more prominent weakening of lapse rates. Large-scale mid-level warming will lower inversion heights and combined with the onset of nocturnal surface cooling, these factors should aid in the squall diminishing. This is supported by latest RAP/early-afternoon CAM guidance with a reduction in the snow-squall parameter and simulated reflectivity trends towards 00Z. ..Grams.. 01/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 42967861 43257840 43437779 43397683 43607640 44027616 44107553 43437542 42617619 41987692 41617771 41317823 41227858 41217921 41387937 41677928 42487874 42967861 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A broad, upper-level troughing pattern should persist across the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week, ushering in several cold fronts into the central and southern Plains, where dry conditions and pockets of receptive fuels remain. Pronounced ridging aloft will support dry and anomalously warm conditions across much of the Intermountain West through Day 5/Thursday. Longer term ensemble guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge across the western U.S./northeast Pacific by late week, that could promote better opportunities for Pacific moisture intrusion into the West by the weekend. ...Day 4/Tuesday - Central High Plains... Increasing west-northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper-level short wave and lee trough development across the central/northern High Plains should support enhanced downslope drying and warming across southeastern WY and eastern CO Tuesday. However, preceding light snowfall late Day 2/Sunday into Day 3/Monday across eastern CO could mitigate overall fire weather impacts. ...Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday... Surface high pressure is expected to slide into the Southeast/Mid Atlantic while troughing evolves across the southern High Plains midweek, promoting better moisture return and subsequent widespread precipitation across eastern TX and the Lower MS River Valley. Timing of frontal passages and spatial distribution of dry return flow events later in the week becomes less certain, particularly across the southern/central Plains where receptive fuels remain. This precludes introduction of critical probabilities in the longer term. ..Williams.. 01/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A broad, upper-level troughing pattern should persist across the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week, ushering in several cold fronts into the central and southern Plains, where dry conditions and pockets of receptive fuels remain. Pronounced ridging aloft will support dry and anomalously warm conditions across much of the Intermountain West through Day 5/Thursday. Longer term ensemble guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge across the western U.S./northeast Pacific by late week, that could promote better opportunities for Pacific moisture intrusion into the West by the weekend. ...Day 4/Tuesday - Central High Plains... Increasing west-northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper-level short wave and lee trough development across the central/northern High Plains should support enhanced downslope drying and warming across southeastern WY and eastern CO Tuesday. However, preceding light snowfall late Day 2/Sunday into Day 3/Monday across eastern CO could mitigate overall fire weather impacts. ...Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday... Surface high pressure is expected to slide into the Southeast/Mid Atlantic while troughing evolves across the southern High Plains midweek, promoting better moisture return and subsequent widespread precipitation across eastern TX and the Lower MS River Valley. Timing of frontal passages and spatial distribution of dry return flow events later in the week becomes less certain, particularly across the southern/central Plains where receptive fuels remain. This precludes introduction of critical probabilities in the longer term. ..Williams.. 01/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A broad, upper-level troughing pattern should persist across the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week, ushering in several cold fronts into the central and southern Plains, where dry conditions and pockets of receptive fuels remain. Pronounced ridging aloft will support dry and anomalously warm conditions across much of the Intermountain West through Day 5/Thursday. Longer term ensemble guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge across the western U.S./northeast Pacific by late week, that could promote better opportunities for Pacific moisture intrusion into the West by the weekend. ...Day 4/Tuesday - Central High Plains... Increasing west-northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper-level short wave and lee trough development across the central/northern High Plains should support enhanced downslope drying and warming across southeastern WY and eastern CO Tuesday. However, preceding light snowfall late Day 2/Sunday into Day 3/Monday across eastern CO could mitigate overall fire weather impacts. ...Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday... Surface high pressure is expected to slide into the Southeast/Mid Atlantic while troughing evolves across the southern High Plains midweek, promoting better moisture return and subsequent widespread precipitation across eastern TX and the Lower MS River Valley. Timing of frontal passages and spatial distribution of dry return flow events later in the week becomes less certain, particularly across the southern/central Plains where receptive fuels remain. This precludes introduction of critical probabilities in the longer term. ..Williams.. 01/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...West/Central Texas into Far Southern Oklahoma... A dry, west-southwesterly flow will commence Sunday across northern TX and southern OK as a surface high pressure feature advances southward into southern TX, while a surface trough stretches into the Central Plains from the Upper Midwest. The resultant increased pressure gradient should yield sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph largely over northern TX and southern OK. Considerably warmer, downslope-influenced temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s F across much of western TX coupled with a residual dry, post-frontal boundary layer, will support minimum RH values in the 10-20% range across this region. Elevated highlights were generally expanded, particularly into southern OK, with locally critical conditions possible across portions of northwest TX where west-southwest winds reach 20 mph at times Sunday afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated Sunday as west-southwesterly surface flow develops across portions of Texas and Oklahoma owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast. ...West/Central Texas into Far Southern Oklahoma... Widespread downslope west-southwesterly winds across west/central Texas will result in warm and dry conditions across much of the area, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH (gusting to 25 MPH) are forecast, overlapping fuels that are more than receptive to wildfire ignition and spread. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with locally Critical conditions possible with intermittent periods of stronger surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...West/Central Texas into Far Southern Oklahoma... A dry, west-southwesterly flow will commence Sunday across northern TX and southern OK as a surface high pressure feature advances southward into southern TX, while a surface trough stretches into the Central Plains from the Upper Midwest. The resultant increased pressure gradient should yield sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph largely over northern TX and southern OK. Considerably warmer, downslope-influenced temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s F across much of western TX coupled with a residual dry, post-frontal boundary layer, will support minimum RH values in the 10-20% range across this region. Elevated highlights were generally expanded, particularly into southern OK, with locally critical conditions possible across portions of northwest TX where west-southwest winds reach 20 mph at times Sunday afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated Sunday as west-southwesterly surface flow develops across portions of Texas and Oklahoma owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast. ...West/Central Texas into Far Southern Oklahoma... Widespread downslope west-southwesterly winds across west/central Texas will result in warm and dry conditions across much of the area, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH (gusting to 25 MPH) are forecast, overlapping fuels that are more than receptive to wildfire ignition and spread. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with locally Critical conditions possible with intermittent periods of stronger surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...West/Central Texas into Far Southern Oklahoma... A dry, west-southwesterly flow will commence Sunday across northern TX and southern OK as a surface high pressure feature advances southward into southern TX, while a surface trough stretches into the Central Plains from the Upper Midwest. The resultant increased pressure gradient should yield sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph largely over northern TX and southern OK. Considerably warmer, downslope-influenced temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s F across much of western TX coupled with a residual dry, post-frontal boundary layer, will support minimum RH values in the 10-20% range across this region. Elevated highlights were generally expanded, particularly into southern OK, with locally critical conditions possible across portions of northwest TX where west-southwest winds reach 20 mph at times Sunday afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated Sunday as west-southwesterly surface flow develops across portions of Texas and Oklahoma owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast. ...West/Central Texas into Far Southern Oklahoma... Widespread downslope west-southwesterly winds across west/central Texas will result in warm and dry conditions across much of the area, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH (gusting to 25 MPH) are forecast, overlapping fuels that are more than receptive to wildfire ignition and spread. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with locally Critical conditions possible with intermittent periods of stronger surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the country for Monday. An extensive cold/dry continental air mass and building surface high pressure over the central CONUS will promote dry conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Broad-scale upper ridging will persist along the West Coast, maintaining low chances for precipitation. A lightning flash or two appears plausible on the eastern shores of the lower Great Lakes where cold 850-700 mb temperatures may support mixed-phase hydrometeors within deep lake-effect snow bands. However, this potential seems too spatially limited and conditional to warrant broader 10% thunder probabilities at this time. ..Moore.. 01/17/2026 Read more