Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the country for Monday. An extensive cold/dry continental air mass and building surface high pressure over the central CONUS will promote dry conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Broad-scale upper ridging will persist along the West Coast, maintaining low chances for precipitation. A lightning flash or two appears plausible on the eastern shores of the lower Great Lakes where cold 850-700 mb temperatures may support mixed-phase hydrometeors within deep lake-effect snow bands. However, this potential seems too spatially limited and conditional to warrant broader 10% thunder probabilities at this time. ..Moore.. 01/17/2026 Read more

MD 0024 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA/NY
Mesoscale Discussion 0024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Areas affected...eastern OH and western PA/NY Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 171600Z - 172000Z SUMMARY...Snow squalls are likely to accompany a cold front pushing east across eastern Ohio into western portions of Pennsylvania and New York through this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection has recently increased along a cold front progressing through north-central/northeast into central Ohio. Both KLPR and KOSU sampled a visibility reduction to quarter-mile with gusts of 30 and 31 kts respectively, and KMFD recently dropped to quarter mile as well. The more organized portion of the snow squalls will probably be confined closer to Lake Erie, where stronger low-level convergence is anticipated. Steep low-level lapse rates along/ahead of the front are the primary driver of a favorable thermodynamic environment with SPC Mesoscale Analysis estimates of a 2-4 Snow Squall Parameter. This is expected to shift east with the front, favoring snow squall production throughout the afternoon. ..Grams.. 01/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41518163 42288020 42907905 43077855 42927810 42427808 41677831 41237869 40577952 40168084 39988148 39978212 40218248 41518163 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected for much of the country on Sunday with the exception of the southern FL coast. A cold continental air mass is noted in mid-morning surface observations surging southward across the Plains in tandem with an upper wave/jet. These features will shift southeastward into the northeastern Gulf by 12z Sunday, and will likely support an uptick in anafrontal stratiform precipitation across the Southeast states through the day. However, negligible buoyancy is expected owing to poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture, which should preclude thunderstorm development. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along and just off the southern FL Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon within a weak warm advection regime ahead of the primary cold front. Offshore storm motions should further limit the duration of convection over land. ..Moore.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected for much of the country on Sunday with the exception of the southern FL coast. A cold continental air mass is noted in mid-morning surface observations surging southward across the Plains in tandem with an upper wave/jet. These features will shift southeastward into the northeastern Gulf by 12z Sunday, and will likely support an uptick in anafrontal stratiform precipitation across the Southeast states through the day. However, negligible buoyancy is expected owing to poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture, which should preclude thunderstorm development. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along and just off the southern FL Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon within a weak warm advection regime ahead of the primary cold front. Offshore storm motions should further limit the duration of convection over land. ..Moore.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Central and Southern Texas... Very dry, post-frontal flow from the north-northeast at 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph) will continue across much central/southern Texas through this evening. Despite the cooler temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s, surface dewpoints in the 0-10F range should yield very low relative humidity below 10% across southern TX by peak afternoon heating under mostly clear skies. These conditions aligned with receptive and drought stressed fuels will promote at least elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and southern TX through today. A locally critical fire weather threat still exists where winds of 20 mph materialize. A slight expansion of the Elevated highlights was necessary owing to current surface observations and short term model trends. ...West-Central High Plains... Sustained north-northwest winds of 25-35 mph with localized gusts to 50-55 mph this morning should gradually diminish today across southeastern WY, eastern CO, the NE Panhandle and western Kansas. Although the gusty winds will align with minimum relative humidity of 10-20% this afternoon, cold temperatures with highs in the 20s to low 30s should inhibit ignitions across an otherwise receptive fuelscape. ..Williams.. 01/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Much of the Continental U.S. east of the Rockies will be dominated by mid-level troughing, with the surface conditions primarily characterized by cold air advection due to an intensifying surface pressure gradient as high pressure builds over the Central Great Plains. While much of the U.S. will experience cooler temperatures, some Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated this afternoon over portions of Central and Southern Texas where dry and breezy post-frontal conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Central and Southern Texas... Though the surface cold front will already be well into the Gulf by early morning, daytime heating and mixing during the afternoon are expected to bring surface temperatures into the upper 40s in Central TX to the upper 50s in Southern TX. Relative humidity as low as 15% will overlap with fuels that exceed the 99th seasonal percentile for ERCs, and winds are expected to be in the 15-20 MPH range (gusting to 25 MPH). Given the duration and intensity of these conditions, Elevated highlights have been maintained, with locally Critical conditions possible with the most intense surface winds. ...West-Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions will persist across eastern Colorado and Wyoming into western Kansas and Nebraska. Relative humidity as low as 10-20%, combined with winds of 25-30 MPH (gusting to 40 MPH) may pose some localized fire-weather concerns. Though fuels do appear to be receptive, surface temperatures ranging from the low 20s to low 30s F should limit ignition potential and preclude any additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Central and Southern Texas... Very dry, post-frontal flow from the north-northeast at 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph) will continue across much central/southern Texas through this evening. Despite the cooler temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s, surface dewpoints in the 0-10F range should yield very low relative humidity below 10% across southern TX by peak afternoon heating under mostly clear skies. These conditions aligned with receptive and drought stressed fuels will promote at least elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and southern TX through today. A locally critical fire weather threat still exists where winds of 20 mph materialize. A slight expansion of the Elevated highlights was necessary owing to current surface observations and short term model trends. ...West-Central High Plains... Sustained north-northwest winds of 25-35 mph with localized gusts to 50-55 mph this morning should gradually diminish today across southeastern WY, eastern CO, the NE Panhandle and western Kansas. Although the gusty winds will align with minimum relative humidity of 10-20% this afternoon, cold temperatures with highs in the 20s to low 30s should inhibit ignitions across an otherwise receptive fuelscape. ..Williams.. 01/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Much of the Continental U.S. east of the Rockies will be dominated by mid-level troughing, with the surface conditions primarily characterized by cold air advection due to an intensifying surface pressure gradient as high pressure builds over the Central Great Plains. While much of the U.S. will experience cooler temperatures, some Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated this afternoon over portions of Central and Southern Texas where dry and breezy post-frontal conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Central and Southern Texas... Though the surface cold front will already be well into the Gulf by early morning, daytime heating and mixing during the afternoon are expected to bring surface temperatures into the upper 40s in Central TX to the upper 50s in Southern TX. Relative humidity as low as 15% will overlap with fuels that exceed the 99th seasonal percentile for ERCs, and winds are expected to be in the 15-20 MPH range (gusting to 25 MPH). Given the duration and intensity of these conditions, Elevated highlights have been maintained, with locally Critical conditions possible with the most intense surface winds. ...West-Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions will persist across eastern Colorado and Wyoming into western Kansas and Nebraska. Relative humidity as low as 10-20%, combined with winds of 25-30 MPH (gusting to 40 MPH) may pose some localized fire-weather concerns. Though fuels do appear to be receptive, surface temperatures ranging from the low 20s to low 30s F should limit ignition potential and preclude any additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer.. 01/17/2026 Read more

MD 0023 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN NJ INTO SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Areas affected...northern NJ into southwest New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 171455Z - 171800Z SUMMARY...Transient heavy snow is expected to shift northeastward in the Northeast to southwest New England through early afternoon. Rates should briefly reach 1 inch per hour before waning. DISCUSSION...A confined band of moderate to heavy snow with several half to quarter-mile visibilities ongoing across mainly southeast PA, north-northwest of the Philadelphia Metro Area, in association with a shortwave impulse progressing northeastward across the Northeast. 12Z observed and forecast soundings indicate the dendritic growth zone is centered between 575-650 mb. Ascent within and below this level appears likely to peak through about 18Z, which should favor snowfall rates around 1 in/hr. This should be transient at any one location as the burst of heavy snow shifts northeastward followed by drying in the dendritic growth layer. ..Grams.. 01/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40787433 40517507 40807529 41777433 42797315 43027244 42917200 42527218 42057256 41367348 40787433 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 17 12:48:01 UTC 2026.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain dominant over the central and eastern CONUS through the period, with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs progressing over the southern/central Plains, MS Valley/Midwest, and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will continue moving southeastward off the central Gulf Coast today. Even with gradual low-level moisture return/airmass modification forecast across parts of the southern FL Peninsula and Keys, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential ahead of the front through tonight. ..Gleason.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain dominant over the central and eastern CONUS through the period, with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs progressing over the southern/central Plains, MS Valley/Midwest, and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will continue moving southeastward off the central Gulf Coast today. Even with gradual low-level moisture return/airmass modification forecast across parts of the southern FL Peninsula and Keys, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential ahead of the front through tonight. ..Gleason.. 01/17/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will spread across much of the CONUS on Monday behind a prior cold frontal passage. Continental trajectories will keep Gulf moisture cut-off, and a cold/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated Sunday as west-southwesterly surface flow develops across portions of Texas and Oklahoma owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast. ...West/Central Texas into Far Southern Oklahoma... Widespread downslope west-southwesterly winds across west/central Texas will result in warm and dry conditions across much of the area, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH (gusting to 25 MPH) are forecast, overlapping fuels that are more than receptive to wildfire ignition and spread. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with locally Critical conditions possible with intermittent periods of stronger surface winds. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Much of the Continental U.S. east of the Rockies will be dominated by mid-level troughing, with the surface conditions primarily characterized by cold air advection due to an intensifying surface pressure gradient as high pressure builds over the Central Great Plains. While much of the U.S. will experience cooler temperatures, some Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated this afternoon over portions of Central and Southern Texas where dry and breezy post-frontal conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Central and Southern Texas... Though the surface cold front will already be well into the Gulf by early morning, daytime heating and mixing during the afternoon are expected to bring surface temperatures into the upper 40s in Central TX to the upper 50s in Southern TX. Relative humidity as low as 15% will overlap with fuels that exceed the 99th seasonal percentile for ERCs, and winds are expected to be in the 15-20 MPH range (gusting to 25 MPH). Given the duration and intensity of these conditions, Elevated highlights have been maintained, with locally Critical conditions possible with the most intense surface winds. ...West-Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions will persist across eastern Colorado and Wyoming into western Kansas and Nebraska. Relative humidity as low as 10-20%, combined with winds of 25-30 MPH (gusting to 40 MPH) may pose some localized fire-weather concerns. Though fuels do appear to be receptive, surface temperatures ranging from the low 20s to low 30s F should limit ignition potential and preclude any additional highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Much of the Continental U.S. east of the Rockies will be dominated by mid-level troughing, with the surface conditions primarily characterized by cold air advection due to an intensifying surface pressure gradient as high pressure builds over the Central Great Plains. While much of the U.S. will experience cooler temperatures, some Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated this afternoon over portions of Central and Southern Texas where dry and breezy post-frontal conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Central and Southern Texas... Though the surface cold front will already be well into the Gulf by early morning, daytime heating and mixing during the afternoon are expected to bring surface temperatures into the upper 40s in Central TX to the upper 50s in Southern TX. Relative humidity as low as 15% will overlap with fuels that exceed the 99th seasonal percentile for ERCs, and winds are expected to be in the 15-20 MPH range (gusting to 25 MPH). Given the duration and intensity of these conditions, Elevated highlights have been maintained, with locally Critical conditions possible with the most intense surface winds. ...West-Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions will persist across eastern Colorado and Wyoming into western Kansas and Nebraska. Relative humidity as low as 10-20%, combined with winds of 25-30 MPH (gusting to 40 MPH) may pose some localized fire-weather concerns. Though fuels do appear to be receptive, surface temperatures ranging from the low 20s to low 30s F should limit ignition potential and preclude any additional highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S., moving offshore the Atlantic coast Sunday night. Meanwhile, broad upper troughing will be maintained across much of the CONUS, reinforced by shortwave impulses over the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon, while a second cold front moves southeast across parts of the Midwest and Plains overnight. A dearth of boundary layer moisture and a cold/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity across most of the CONUS. The exception may be across portions of the southeast FL Peninsula and the Keys. Modest boundary layer moisture will support weak buoyancy near the coast and just offshore as the upper trough and surface front provide forcing for ascent. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the bulk of thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore where better instability will support deeper updrafts. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2026 Read more