Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... As a cold front advances into the Gulf late Friday into Saturday, post-frontal gusty winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels will warrant Elevated highlights across portions of central and southern Texas. ...Portions of Central Texas to the Gulf Coast... Post-frontal winds out of the north-northeast during the afternoon on Saturday are expected to reach 15 MPH (gusting to 20), with relative humidity between 15 and 20%. Current ERC fuels guidance has fuels exceeding the maximum seasonal values across the region, warranting at least Elevated fire-weather highlights. ...Central High Plains... Strong post-frontal winds will continue across portions of the Central High Plains -- particularly eastern Wyoming/Colorado into western Kansas/Nebraska. These winds will be collocated with low relative humidity and receptive fuels. However, surface temperatures are expected to largely remain near or even below freezing during the day Saturday. Some fire-weather concerns may be present during the afternoon, though the near-freezing surface temperatures preclude highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 01/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... As a cold front advances into the Gulf late Friday into Saturday, post-frontal gusty winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels will warrant Elevated highlights across portions of central and southern Texas. ...Portions of Central Texas to the Gulf Coast... Post-frontal winds out of the north-northeast during the afternoon on Saturday are expected to reach 15 MPH (gusting to 20), with relative humidity between 15 and 20%. Current ERC fuels guidance has fuels exceeding the maximum seasonal values across the region, warranting at least Elevated fire-weather highlights. ...Central High Plains... Strong post-frontal winds will continue across portions of the Central High Plains -- particularly eastern Wyoming/Colorado into western Kansas/Nebraska. These winds will be collocated with low relative humidity and receptive fuels. However, surface temperatures are expected to largely remain near or even below freezing during the day Saturday. Some fire-weather concerns may be present during the afternoon, though the near-freezing surface temperatures preclude highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 01/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet maximum will progress southward along the Rockies/western edge of broad-scale eastern-CONUS troughing throughout the day. As a surface low pressure system colocated with the trough center moves eastward out of Wisconsin, a strong cold front will continue to push eastward and southward across much of the Great Plains and into the Midwest. Low relative humidity, receptive fuels, and strong post-frontal surface winds will support Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, into western Oklahoma. ...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma... Post-frontal conditions in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into western Oklahoma will result in surface wind speeds of 20-25 MPH, gusting as high as 35-40 MPH. Relative humidity will broadly range from 15-30%, with the higher values corresponding with cooler post-frontal temperatures near the border with Kansas. With seasonal ERCs largely above the 90th percentile, widespread Elevated and a smaller area of Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon. A slight westward expansion of the Critical highlights is introduced in this forecast to reflect greater confidence in the location of the strongest surface winds per recent HREF guidance. Though surface temperatures in far southeastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas will be cooler (near 40F), surface winds will be much stronger, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas... Seasonal ERCs are well above the 90th percentile across the region, with sustained surface winds of 40+ MPH (gusting 50-60 MPH) expected. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain cooler (mid 30s F) given a lack of downslope component to the winds. Forecast middle and upper-level cloud cover will further suppress surface warming during the afternoon. Though fire-weather concerns may develop, several limiting factors should limit the spatial and temporal extent of any potential Elevated highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet maximum will progress southward along the Rockies/western edge of broad-scale eastern-CONUS troughing throughout the day. As a surface low pressure system colocated with the trough center moves eastward out of Wisconsin, a strong cold front will continue to push eastward and southward across much of the Great Plains and into the Midwest. Low relative humidity, receptive fuels, and strong post-frontal surface winds will support Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, into western Oklahoma. ...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma... Post-frontal conditions in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into western Oklahoma will result in surface wind speeds of 20-25 MPH, gusting as high as 35-40 MPH. Relative humidity will broadly range from 15-30%, with the higher values corresponding with cooler post-frontal temperatures near the border with Kansas. With seasonal ERCs largely above the 90th percentile, widespread Elevated and a smaller area of Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon. A slight westward expansion of the Critical highlights is introduced in this forecast to reflect greater confidence in the location of the strongest surface winds per recent HREF guidance. Though surface temperatures in far southeastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas will be cooler (near 40F), surface winds will be much stronger, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas... Seasonal ERCs are well above the 90th percentile across the region, with sustained surface winds of 40+ MPH (gusting 50-60 MPH) expected. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain cooler (mid 30s F) given a lack of downslope component to the winds. Forecast middle and upper-level cloud cover will further suppress surface warming during the afternoon. Though fire-weather concerns may develop, several limiting factors should limit the spatial and temporal extent of any potential Elevated highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S. through Sunday evening. Thereafter, broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the FL Peninsula through afternoon. Sufficient boundary layer moisture will be present to support weak buoyancy. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough, and along the surface front, may support isolated thunderstorm activity across portions of the Keys into the southeast FL Peninsula during the morning and afternoon before the cold front moves offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S. through Sunday evening. Thereafter, broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the FL Peninsula through afternoon. Sufficient boundary layer moisture will be present to support weak buoyancy. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough, and along the surface front, may support isolated thunderstorm activity across portions of the Keys into the southeast FL Peninsula during the morning and afternoon before the cold front moves offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the southern Rockies will pivot east on Saturday, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and southern Plains. Gulf moisture will remain cut-off, precluding thunderstorm activity for most of the CONUS. With the approach of the upper trough and stronger height falls, low pressure may develop near the FL Straits and toward the Bahamas late in the period. Sufficient boundary layer moisture will exist to support weak buoyancy amid increasing southwesterly flow above 700 mb. This could foster a couple of thunderstorms approaching the upper FL Keys to the southeast coastal FL Peninsula after 06z, though the bulk of any thunderstorm activity should mainly remain offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the southern Rockies will pivot east on Saturday, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and southern Plains. Gulf moisture will remain cut-off, precluding thunderstorm activity for most of the CONUS. With the approach of the upper trough and stronger height falls, low pressure may develop near the FL Straits and toward the Bahamas late in the period. Sufficient boundary layer moisture will exist to support weak buoyancy amid increasing southwesterly flow above 700 mb. This could foster a couple of thunderstorms approaching the upper FL Keys to the southeast coastal FL Peninsula after 06z, though the bulk of any thunderstorm activity should mainly remain offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the southern Rockies will pivot east on Saturday, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and southern Plains. Gulf moisture will remain cut-off, precluding thunderstorm activity for most of the CONUS. With the approach of the upper trough and stronger height falls, low pressure may develop near the FL Straits and toward the Bahamas late in the period. Sufficient boundary layer moisture will exist to support weak buoyancy amid increasing southwesterly flow above 700 mb. This could foster a couple of thunderstorms approaching the upper FL Keys to the southeast coastal FL Peninsula after 06z, though the bulk of any thunderstorm activity should mainly remain offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central states today, as mid-level flow becomes west-southwesterly across the east-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. A large area of high pressure behind the front will reinforce a cold and dry airmass in place over much of the nation. In response, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development today and tonight across the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central states today, as mid-level flow becomes west-southwesterly across the east-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. A large area of high pressure behind the front will reinforce a cold and dry airmass in place over much of the nation. In response, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development today and tonight across the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central states today, as mid-level flow becomes west-southwesterly across the east-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. A large area of high pressure behind the front will reinforce a cold and dry airmass in place over much of the nation. In response, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development today and tonight across the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the mid-Atlantic seaboard this evening, as another trough moves across the northern Plains. Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will move across the Southeast as a cold front advances across the central Plains. A cold and dry airmass will remain in place over much of the nation, being unfavorable for thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Broyles.. 01/16/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 15 21:15:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 15 21:15:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The upper-level pattern from this weekend through next week will feature a trough in the East with a ridge in the West. Model guidance continues to suggest the possible development/evolution of the trough within the West late next week into the weekend, but model variability--both between models and run-to-run--grows rather large by that time frame. This pattern will promote multiple cold air intrusions east of the Divide. Precipitation appears likely from the Mississippi Valley eastward. The southern High Plains into parts of the central High Plains are expected to remain dry. Depending on how fuels respond to the colder air, some fire risk could increase in these areas where stronger surface winds/downsloping occur. Predictability of where this will occur and how intense these conditions will be is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 01/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The upper-level pattern from this weekend through next week will feature a trough in the East with a ridge in the West. Model guidance continues to suggest the possible development/evolution of the trough within the West late next week into the weekend, but model variability--both between models and run-to-run--grows rather large by that time frame. This pattern will promote multiple cold air intrusions east of the Divide. Precipitation appears likely from the Mississippi Valley eastward. The southern High Plains into parts of the central High Plains are expected to remain dry. Depending on how fuels respond to the colder air, some fire risk could increase in these areas where stronger surface winds/downsloping occur. Predictability of where this will occur and how intense these conditions will be is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 01/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Southern Plains into southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas... Minor expansions to the critical area were made based on recent model guidance and fuel information. The elevated area was expanded northwestward more of southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado. There is a signal for at least briefly critical conditions in these areas despite lower temperatures. Recent fuel information suggests fine fuels have dried after precipitation last weekend. ...Northeastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas... With the potent mid-level jet pushing into the region, strong winds are probable in the central High Plains. Sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph along with gusts of 40-50 mph appear possible. Area fuels are dry; however, there is a strong signal for upper-level clouds to be present through the day and temperatures are likely to struggle to get above freezing. The downslope component to the winds will not be very strong, but temperatures could near 40F in the Front Range. While some fire weather concerns may develop, the mitigating factors should limit the threat spatially and temporally. ...Piedmont... After a relatively dry cold frontal passage, dry air will remain in place as winds turn southerly in advance of the next shortwave trough. RH of 20-25% could occur in some locations. Winds will generally be the limiting factor for greater fire weather concerns. Fuels remain dry outside of where light precipitation fell within the last 1-2 days. Locally elevated fire weather is possible. ..Wendt.. 01/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0239 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... A stronger mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains as broader troughing becomes established over the eastern half of the CONUS. A reinforcing cold front will move south into OK/TX early Friday. This will support strong northwesterly gusts over much of the Plains and some fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front moves south temperatures will be cooler, but the coldest air should lag behind the front. With the air mass already dry from the prior frontal intrusion, dry downsloping should result in low RH of 10-20% over much of the Plains. Strong northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are likely from western KS into OK/TX. Fuels remain very dry despite light precipitation and cooler temperatures over the preceding days. This should support widespread elevated and some critical fire-weather conditions Friday afternoon. A couple hours of critical conditions appear most likely beneath and just south of the strong 700 mb jet across northern and western OK Friday afternoon. Here, a few gusts to 40+ mph are possible overlapped with fuels in the 90-95th seasonal percentile. ...Central High Plains... Much cooler surface temperatures (30s and 40s F) are expected farther north into KS and eastern CO behind the front. However, very dry conditions, single digit to below zero dewpoints and strong winds of 20-30 mph may still pose a brief locally elevated fire-weather threat where fuels are the most receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026/ ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will continue to prevail from the Rockies eastward, with related continental low-level trajectories. Lingering thunderstorm potential off the coast of southern Florida in vicinity of the Florida Straits will continue to diminish as a cold front progresses southeastward. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. ...Southeast FL and the Keys... A broad large-scale trough will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS through the period. In response, a weak warm front/surface wave and attendant moisture will overspread southeastern FL during the overnight hours. Related destabilization will support isolated thunderstorms along the immediate coastal areas and the Keys. Modest strengthening of low/deep-layer shear within the weak warm-advection regime may favor an isolated strong storm or two, though the stronger activity should generally remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2026 Read more