Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S., moving offshore the Atlantic coast Sunday night. Meanwhile, broad upper troughing will be maintained across much of the CONUS, reinforced by shortwave impulses over the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon, while a second cold front moves southeast across parts of the Midwest and Plains overnight. A dearth of boundary layer moisture and a cold/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity across most of the CONUS. The exception may be across portions of the southeast FL Peninsula and the Keys. Modest boundary layer moisture will support weak buoyancy near the coast and just offshore as the upper trough and surface front provide forcing for ascent. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the bulk of thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore where better instability will support deeper updrafts. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A cyclonic flow pattern will remain over the U.S. today, as a large-scale upper-level trough moves through the flow into the southern Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will settle into the Great Plains. This airmass will reinforce cold and dry conditions across much of the nation. Thunderstorms may occur offshore from the central Gulf Coast or eastward off the coast of south Florida. However, no thunderstorms are forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A cyclonic flow pattern will remain over the U.S. today, as a large-scale upper-level trough moves through the flow into the southern Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will settle into the Great Plains. This airmass will reinforce cold and dry conditions across much of the nation. Thunderstorms may occur offshore from the central Gulf Coast or eastward off the coast of south Florida. However, no thunderstorms are forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. this evening or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will move across the central U.S. this evening and tonight, as mid-level flow remains cyclonic from the southwest over much of the east-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move the central Gulf Coast states and southern Appalachians late this evening into tonight. Behind the front, a large area of high pressure area will settle into the central U.S. tonight, reinforcing cold and dry conditions over much of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. this evening or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will move across the central U.S. this evening and tonight, as mid-level flow remains cyclonic from the southwest over much of the east-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move the central Gulf Coast states and southern Appalachians late this evening into tonight. Behind the front, a large area of high pressure area will settle into the central U.S. tonight, reinforcing cold and dry conditions over much of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 01/17/2026 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A large scale troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. is likely to remain in place through much of next week, with occasional embedded mid-level short waves and cold fronts translating southeastward within the broad west-northwest flow. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are likely to persist across much of the Intermountain West under an upper-level ridge through at least the middle of next week. Ensemble and longer term guidance depicts a de-amplifying wave pattern emerging for the latter part of next week which could allow more opportunities for rainfall across the West but with appreciable timing/spatial uncertainty of cold fronts/dry return flow events across the central/southern Plains. Precipitation associated with a cold front and vigorous mid-level trough is expected across much of the Southeast on Day 3/Sunday, temporarily mitigating fire weather threat through at least mid week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern Plains... Dry southwest flow is expected to develop across the southern Plains as surface high pressure moves towards the TX Gulf Coast. Downslope warming and drying along with breezy southwest surface winds could bring a fire weather threat back to portions of northwest TX and southern OK, where a 40% critical probability area was introduced. Farther north, post-frontal winds from the northwest will impact the central Plains, but cooler temperatures and uncertainty in RH reductions could limit a broader fire weather concern. ..Williams.. 01/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Central/Southern Texas to the Gulf Coast... Breezy north and northeast winds behind a strong cold front, along with a markedly drier but cooler air mass in place will support elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains Saturday. North-northeast winds of around 15 mph (localized 20 mph) coinciding with relative humidity falling to below 15% in some areas should align with receptive fuels (with above normal fuel loading) to promote elevated fire weather conditions across central/southern TX Saturday. A locally critical fire weather threat will exist where sustained winds reach 20 mph near and east of the Balcones Escarpment in south-central TX. However, cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s should mitigate a more significant fire weather threat across the area. ...Central and Southern Plains... Strong, albeit weaker than D1/Friday, northwesterly surface flow under a pronounced mid-level jet is expected across the central High Plains and southern Plains Saturday. Relative humidity will fall below 15% within a very dry, polar continental air mass particularly from the NE Panhandle, eastern CO, southward into the TX/OK Panhandles. Temperatures struggling to rise above freezing should somewhat mitigate a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... As a cold front advances into the Gulf late Friday into Saturday, post-frontal gusty winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels will warrant Elevated highlights across portions of central and southern Texas. ...Portions of Central Texas to the Gulf Coast... Post-frontal winds out of the north-northeast during the afternoon on Saturday are expected to reach 15 MPH (gusting to 20), with relative humidity between 15 and 20%. Current ERC fuels guidance has fuels exceeding the maximum seasonal values across the region, warranting at least Elevated fire-weather highlights. ...Central High Plains... Strong post-frontal winds will continue across portions of the Central High Plains -- particularly eastern Wyoming/Colorado into western Kansas/Nebraska. These winds will be collocated with low relative humidity and receptive fuels. However, surface temperatures are expected to largely remain near or even below freezing during the day Saturday. Some fire-weather concerns may be present during the afternoon, though the near-freezing surface temperatures preclude highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 16 20:04:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 16 20:04:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 01/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/ ...Discussion... A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward, with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Southeastern Florida... An amplified midlevel trough will move across the eastern CONUS through Sunday evening. The tail-end of a related cold front will cross the southern FL Peninsula during the afternoon hours. Along/ahead of the front, sufficient boundary-layer moisture and buoyancy will support isolated thunderstorms before the front moves offshore. While moderate deep-layer shear would be sufficient for a strong storm or two along coastal areas of southeastern FL and the Upper Keys, current thinking is that limited buoyancy and quickly veering low-level flow will limit strong-storm potential over land areas. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma... Strong northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected across portions of the southern Plains through this afternoon. A dry, post frontal air mass will support relative humidity as low as 15% across western OK and adjacent portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. The alignment of dry and windy conditions along with receptive fuels will promote critical fire weather conditions through this afternoon. Critical highlights were slightly extended to the south and southwest into portions of far northwestern TX given latest short term model guidance and current surface observations. ...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas... Elevated highlights were extended northwestward into much of eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Cloud cover had remained minimal through the mid-morning hours. Current observed wind speeds of 30-40 mph with gusts 50-60 mph will persist through the afternoon. These winds will combine with very dry air (dew points in the single digits and minimum relative humidity as low as 15%) to promote an enhanced fire weather threat across the area despite temperatures only rising into the 30s and 40s, with receptive fuels in place. ...Southeast... A very dry air mass is in place across the Southeast with dew points currently in the single digits. Surface low pressure across the Great Lakes will promote light south-southwesterly winds across the region, although speeds are likely to remain limited to 10 mph or less. Colder temperatures with highs in the 40s will be a mitigating factor in a larger fire weather threat across the region today, but localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible where winds approach 15 mph and RH falls to around 20% this afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet maximum will progress southward along the Rockies/western edge of broad-scale eastern-CONUS troughing throughout the day. As a surface low pressure system colocated with the trough center moves eastward out of Wisconsin, a strong cold front will continue to push eastward and southward across much of the Great Plains and into the Midwest. Low relative humidity, receptive fuels, and strong post-frontal surface winds will support Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, into western Oklahoma. ...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma... Post-frontal conditions in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into western Oklahoma will result in surface wind speeds of 20-25 MPH, gusting as high as 35-40 MPH. Relative humidity will broadly range from 15-30%, with the higher values corresponding with cooler post-frontal temperatures near the border with Kansas. With seasonal ERCs largely above the 90th percentile, widespread Elevated and a smaller area of Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon. A slight westward expansion of the Critical highlights is introduced in this forecast to reflect greater confidence in the location of the strongest surface winds per recent HREF guidance. Though surface temperatures in far southeastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas will be cooler (near 40F), surface winds will be much stronger, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas... Seasonal ERCs are well above the 90th percentile across the region, with sustained surface winds of 40+ MPH (gusting 50-60 MPH) expected. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain cooler (mid 30s F) given a lack of downslope component to the winds. Forecast middle and upper-level cloud cover will further suppress surface warming during the afternoon. Though fire-weather concerns may develop, several limiting factors should limit the spatial and temporal extent of any potential Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma... Strong northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected across portions of the southern Plains through this afternoon. A dry, post frontal air mass will support relative humidity as low as 15% across western OK and adjacent portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. The alignment of dry and windy conditions along with receptive fuels will promote critical fire weather conditions through this afternoon. Critical highlights were slightly extended to the south and southwest into portions of far northwestern TX given latest short term model guidance and current surface observations. ...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas... Elevated highlights were extended northwestward into much of eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Cloud cover had remained minimal through the mid-morning hours. Current observed wind speeds of 30-40 mph with gusts 50-60 mph will persist through the afternoon. These winds will combine with very dry air (dew points in the single digits and minimum relative humidity as low as 15%) to promote an enhanced fire weather threat across the area despite temperatures only rising into the 30s and 40s, with receptive fuels in place. ...Southeast... A very dry air mass is in place across the Southeast with dew points currently in the single digits. Surface low pressure across the Great Lakes will promote light south-southwesterly winds across the region, although speeds are likely to remain limited to 10 mph or less. Colder temperatures with highs in the 40s will be a mitigating factor in a larger fire weather threat across the region today, but localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible where winds approach 15 mph and RH falls to around 20% this afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet maximum will progress southward along the Rockies/western edge of broad-scale eastern-CONUS troughing throughout the day. As a surface low pressure system colocated with the trough center moves eastward out of Wisconsin, a strong cold front will continue to push eastward and southward across much of the Great Plains and into the Midwest. Low relative humidity, receptive fuels, and strong post-frontal surface winds will support Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, into western Oklahoma. ...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma... Post-frontal conditions in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into western Oklahoma will result in surface wind speeds of 20-25 MPH, gusting as high as 35-40 MPH. Relative humidity will broadly range from 15-30%, with the higher values corresponding with cooler post-frontal temperatures near the border with Kansas. With seasonal ERCs largely above the 90th percentile, widespread Elevated and a smaller area of Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon. A slight westward expansion of the Critical highlights is introduced in this forecast to reflect greater confidence in the location of the strongest surface winds per recent HREF guidance. Though surface temperatures in far southeastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas will be cooler (near 40F), surface winds will be much stronger, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas... Seasonal ERCs are well above the 90th percentile across the region, with sustained surface winds of 40+ MPH (gusting 50-60 MPH) expected. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain cooler (mid 30s F) given a lack of downslope component to the winds. Forecast middle and upper-level cloud cover will further suppress surface warming during the afternoon. Though fire-weather concerns may develop, several limiting factors should limit the spatial and temporal extent of any potential Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A midlevel shortwave trough initially over the central High Plains will move into the base of a larger-scale trough encompassing the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. In response, a weak surface front and related moisture will move northward into southeastern FL during the overnight and early morning hours. While buoyancy will be limited (especially over land areas), isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Upper Keys and far southeastern FL. Most guidance depicts the bulk of this activity remaining offshore, and eventual removal of the TSTM area may be warranted if this trend continues. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A midlevel shortwave trough initially over the central High Plains will move into the base of a larger-scale trough encompassing the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. In response, a weak surface front and related moisture will move northward into southeastern FL during the overnight and early morning hours. While buoyancy will be limited (especially over land areas), isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Upper Keys and far southeastern FL. Most guidance depicts the bulk of this activity remaining offshore, and eventual removal of the TSTM area may be warranted if this trend continues. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Discussion... A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward, with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Discussion... A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward, with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward over the Great Lakes and Midwest today as large-scale upper troughing remains over much of the central/eastern CONUS. A surface cold front will continue to advance southeastward through the period across the remainder of the southern Plains and much of the Southeast. Low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorm development today along/ahead of the cold front. ..Gleason.. 01/16/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential. The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential. The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization. Read more