SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...01z Update - Florida...
The 00z RAOB from MFL showed modest instability, but warm
temperatures through 700 mb. This should largely limit thunderstorm
activity, especially inland. Nevertheless, a few lightning flashes
remain possible through tonight near the immediate coast or over the
offshore waters from the Keys through southeast FL.
..Leitman.. 01/14/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the
Keys on Wednesday.
...Southeast FL and the Keys...
Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough encompassing the
eastern half of the CONUS, a midlevel shortwave trough will advance
eastward across the Gulf of America toward the FL Peninsula. In
response, an initially stalled front will move eastward across
Southeast FL and the Keys during the afternoon. Most guidance (with
the exception of the RAP) depicts marginally sufficient buoyancy for
isolated thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front during the
day. A secondary/stronger cold front will approach western FL late
in the period, though thunderstorms are not currently expected owing
to limited buoyancy.
..Weinman.. 01/13/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...Central High Plains...
Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of
the central High Plains through this afternoon. Development of
robust northwest winds is underway as deep layer northwesterly flow
increases through the afternoon. Despite cloud cover ahead of an
approaching cold front, well above normal temperatures in the 50s
and 60s, RH reductions close to 20% by mid afternoon and northwest
winds of 15-25 mph over receptive fuels will support elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions across northeastern CO, far
southeastern WY and southwestern NE Panhandle. A slight
southeastward extension of Elevated highlights was made into
northwest KS.
...Southern Plains...
A dry air mass remains in place across eastern NM, TX Panhandle and
much of OK. A surface trough extends southwestward from the Great
Lakes to the Southern Plains, promoting development of broad, but
weak west-southwest winds across Northwest TX and OK through the
afternoon. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible
across the Red River Valley and southeastern OK where winds approach
15 mph and RH falls below 20% this afternoon.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will persist across the Southeast as surface high
pressure slides southeastward into the Atlantic. A light southwest
wind of 10 mph or less is likely to develop across the Piedmont
region in response to a surface low moving into Ontario. Brief,
locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible where fuels
remain dry and RH falls to 25% across coastal GA and the Carolinas.
..Williams.. 01/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Troughing over the eastern US will intensify today with strong
north-northwesterly flow overspreading much of the Plains. A
prominent shortwave will move southward along with a strong surface
cold front. The increase in strong flow aloft and the front will
bolster surface winds over the High Plains, supporting Elevated
fire-weather conditions.
...Central High Plains...
As the upper trough deepens and moves east, a potentate shortwave
feature on the western flank will move southeastward over the
Rockies and High Plains. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the region. The upper-level support along with ongoing
lee troughing and building high pressure to the west will promote
very breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts. However,
RH values will likely be only modest given orographic cloud cover
and the cooler surface temperatures behind the front. Still, RH
below 30% overlapped with very dry/dormant fuels and several hours
of favorable dry/breezy conditions will likely support elevated fire
weather threat for northeastern CO, far southeastern WY and
southwestern NE Panhandle. Fire concerns should end quickly tonight
as the cold front and cooler air mass arrive with strong northerly
flow.
...TX/OK...
Modest southwest winds associated with a weak surface trough
extending from the Great Lakes region to the southern Plains will be
a primary mitigating factor in a broader fire weather threat today.
Still, unusually warm temperatures and afternoon RH near 20% across
northwestern Texas and southwestern could support localized
fire-weather concerns where winds of up to 15 mph amid drier fuels
are expected.
A weak upper low with light precipitation over south TX and the Rio
Grande Valley could temporarily limit fuel availability today.
However, only light precipitation is expected and the state of
short-hour fuels is such that rapid drying is possible.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface
high pressure settles over the Southeast. While strong winds appear
unlikely, residual dry air mass will persist across the Southeastern
U.S. where RH will fall to as low as 25% With drier fuels in place,
this could support some brief localized fire-weather concerns
despite limited winds, especially across parts of coastal GA and the
Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to undergo significant amplification today
as a series of shortwave troughs act to deepen the upper troughing
across the central and eastern CONUS, and the upper ridging over the
western CONUS remains in place. Primary amplification will be
associated with a pair of phased shortwave troughs moving through
the western periphery of the upper troughing over the Plains and
Upper Midwest.
Continental airmass associated with these shortwaves will also act
to reinforce the dry and stable conditions already in place across
the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception
currently is across far south FL and the FL Keys, where remaining
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s) is supporting
modest buoyancy. This buoyancy coupled with low-level convergence in
the vicinity of the southeast FL coast and the Keys is fostering
some deeper convective cores. A few lightning flashes have recently
been observed near the middle Keys, and the expectation is for
occasional flashes to persist from the Keys into the far southeast
FL Coast throughout the day.
Lastly, broad ascent is anticipated across the Southeast
tonight/early tomorrow, resulting from a combination of lift
associated with the southernmost shortwave moving through upper
trough and lift attendant to another shortwave moving from TX into
the Lower MS Valley. Dry and stable low-levels will keep the region
free of sustained deep convection, but some forecast soundings do
show limited and shallow buoyancy above 700 mb. As such, there is
low potential for a flash or two across this region.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 01/13/2026
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis...
Another quiet convective weather day is expected, as relatively dry
and stable conditions will preclude convection in most areas. One
exception will be over south FL, where dewpoints near 70F and
sufficient MUCAPE will pose a risk of isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. No severe storms are expected.
..Hart/Kerr.. 01/13/2026
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis...
Another quiet convective weather day is expected, as relatively dry
and stable conditions will preclude convection in most areas. One
exception will be over south FL, where dewpoints near 70F and
sufficient MUCAPE will pose a risk of isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. No severe storms are expected.
..Hart/Kerr.. 01/13/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast
to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result,
northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the
continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are
expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will
keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation
through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be
unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is
not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast
to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result,
northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the
continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are
expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will
keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation
through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be
unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is
not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday and
Thursday night.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward to the southern
Atlantic Seaboard on Thursday, as northwest flow remains in place
over much of the nation. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will remain over the east-central U.S. As a result, dry and
cool conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms over the
continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday and
Thursday night.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward to the southern
Atlantic Seaboard on Thursday, as northwest flow remains in place
over much of the nation. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will remain over the east-central U.S. As a result, dry and
cool conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms over the
continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Persistent and strong upper-level troughing is expected over the
eastern US Day2/Wednesday. As the trough intensifies, a surface low
and cold front will rapidly move eastward. Behind the front, strong
north/northwesterly winds are likely over parts of the Plains and
eventually the Southeast. This, and dry conditions may support some
elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern Plains to the Rio Grande Valley...
A dry cold front will sweep into the Southern Plains and south TX
Wednesday as the strong upper trough continues to deepen over the
eastern U.S. Accompanying the front, gusty north winds of 20-30 mph
are expected across parts of OK and TX. This will enhance wildfire
risk over parts of the southern Plains ahead of the cooler air mass.
Still, the cooler temperatures and cloud will likely keep RH
reductions more modest with minimums around 30%. This will likely
limit a broader sustained fire-weather threat, but dry fine fuels
remain capable of supporting some fire spread given the windy
conditions.
Farther south, some precipitation may temporarily limit fuels as a
weak upper low with preceding rain weakens over central TX. Still,
rapid drying is expected given the increase in winds and could
support dry and breezy conditions all the way to the Rio Grande
Valley. Given the state of fuels and what is expected to be light
and sporadic precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible, but certainty remains too low to introduce highlights
farther south at this time.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions are again expected over parts of the Southeast. While
winds should remain light ahead of the advancing cold front,
afternoon RH values below 35% and dry fuels could support localized
fire-weather concerns. Winds will increase after dark, though rapid
humidity recovery is expected with the frontal passage overnight.
..Lyons.. 01/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Persistent and strong upper-level troughing is expected over the
eastern US Day2/Wednesday. As the trough intensifies, a surface low
and cold front will rapidly move eastward. Behind the front, strong
north/northwesterly winds are likely over parts of the Plains and
eventually the Southeast. This, and dry conditions may support some
elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern Plains to the Rio Grande Valley...
A dry cold front will sweep into the Southern Plains and south TX
Wednesday as the strong upper trough continues to deepen over the
eastern U.S. Accompanying the front, gusty north winds of 20-30 mph
are expected across parts of OK and TX. This will enhance wildfire
risk over parts of the southern Plains ahead of the cooler air mass.
Still, the cooler temperatures and cloud will likely keep RH
reductions more modest with minimums around 30%. This will likely
limit a broader sustained fire-weather threat, but dry fine fuels
remain capable of supporting some fire spread given the windy
conditions.
Farther south, some precipitation may temporarily limit fuels as a
weak upper low with preceding rain weakens over central TX. Still,
rapid drying is expected given the increase in winds and could
support dry and breezy conditions all the way to the Rio Grande
Valley. Given the state of fuels and what is expected to be light
and sporadic precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible, but certainty remains too low to introduce highlights
farther south at this time.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions are again expected over parts of the Southeast. While
winds should remain light ahead of the advancing cold front,
afternoon RH values below 35% and dry fuels could support localized
fire-weather concerns. Winds will increase after dark, though rapid
humidity recovery is expected with the frontal passage overnight.
..Lyons.. 01/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Troughing over the eastern US will intensify today with strong
north-northwesterly flow overspreading much of the Plains. A
prominent shortwave will move southward along with a strong surface
cold front. The increase in strong flow aloft and the front will
bolster surface winds over the High Plains, supporting Elevated
fire-weather conditions.
...Central High Plains...
As the upper trough deepens and moves east, a potentate shortwave
feature on the western flank will move southeastward over the
Rockies and High Plains. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the region. The upper-level support along with ongoing
lee troughing and building high pressure to the west will promote
very breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts. However,
RH values will likely be only modest given orographic cloud cover
and the cooler surface temperatures behind the front. Still, RH
below 30% overlapped with very dry/dormant fuels and several hours
of favorable dry/breezy conditions will likely support elevated fire
weather threat for northeastern CO, far southeastern WY and
southwestern NE Panhandle. Fire concerns should end quickly tonight
as the cold front and cooler air mass arrive with strong northerly
flow.
...TX/OK...
Modest southwest winds associated with a weak surface trough
extending from the Great Lakes region to the southern Plains will be
a primary mitigating factor in a broader fire weather threat today.
Still, unusually warm temperatures and afternoon RH near 20% across
northwestern Texas and southwestern could support localized
fire-weather concerns where winds of up to 15 mph amid drier fuels
are expected.
A weak upper low with light precipitation over south TX and the Rio
Grande Valley could temporarily limit fuel availability today.
However, only light precipitation is expected and the state of
short-hour fuels is such that rapid drying is possible.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface
high pressure settles over the Southeast. While strong winds appear
unlikely, residual dry air mass will persist across the Southeastern
U.S. where RH will fall to as low as 25% With drier fuels in place,
this could support some brief localized fire-weather concerns
despite limited winds, especially across parts of coastal GA and the
Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently.
..Lyons.. 01/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Troughing over the eastern US will intensify today with strong
north-northwesterly flow overspreading much of the Plains. A
prominent shortwave will move southward along with a strong surface
cold front. The increase in strong flow aloft and the front will
bolster surface winds over the High Plains, supporting Elevated
fire-weather conditions.
...Central High Plains...
As the upper trough deepens and moves east, a potentate shortwave
feature on the western flank will move southeastward over the
Rockies and High Plains. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the region. The upper-level support along with ongoing
lee troughing and building high pressure to the west will promote
very breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts. However,
RH values will likely be only modest given orographic cloud cover
and the cooler surface temperatures behind the front. Still, RH
below 30% overlapped with very dry/dormant fuels and several hours
of favorable dry/breezy conditions will likely support elevated fire
weather threat for northeastern CO, far southeastern WY and
southwestern NE Panhandle. Fire concerns should end quickly tonight
as the cold front and cooler air mass arrive with strong northerly
flow.
...TX/OK...
Modest southwest winds associated with a weak surface trough
extending from the Great Lakes region to the southern Plains will be
a primary mitigating factor in a broader fire weather threat today.
Still, unusually warm temperatures and afternoon RH near 20% across
northwestern Texas and southwestern could support localized
fire-weather concerns where winds of up to 15 mph amid drier fuels
are expected.
A weak upper low with light precipitation over south TX and the Rio
Grande Valley could temporarily limit fuel availability today.
However, only light precipitation is expected and the state of
short-hour fuels is such that rapid drying is possible.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface
high pressure settles over the Southeast. While strong winds appear
unlikely, residual dry air mass will persist across the Southeastern
U.S. where RH will fall to as low as 25% With drier fuels in place,
this could support some brief localized fire-weather concerns
despite limited winds, especially across parts of coastal GA and the
Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently.
..Lyons.. 01/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
east-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front moves quickly across
the southeastern U.S. In its wake, a large area of high pressure
will settle in across the central states. This will reinforce dry
and cool conditions over much of the nation. In response,
thunderstorms will be unlikely over the continental U.S. Wednesday
and Wednesday night.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
east-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front moves quickly across
the southeastern U.S. In its wake, a large area of high pressure
will settle in across the central states. This will reinforce dry
and cool conditions over much of the nation. In response,
thunderstorms will be unlikely over the continental U.S. Wednesday
and Wednesday night.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions will persist across most of the CONUS
today. However, some modest moisture return is forecast across far
southern FL as a lobe of low surface pressure extends southward
along the Atlantic Seaboard. Generally warm temperatures through the
midlevels will limit instability and result in poor lapse rates.
Nevertheless, increasing moisture and modest forcing along a
developing sea breeze during the afternoon/evening could support a
couple of lightning flashes near the immediate coast or just
offshore the southeast FL Peninsula and portions of the Keys. Severe
storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 01/13/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions will persist across most of the CONUS
today. However, some modest moisture return is forecast across far
southern FL as a lobe of low surface pressure extends southward
along the Atlantic Seaboard. Generally warm temperatures through the
midlevels will limit instability and result in poor lapse rates.
Nevertheless, increasing moisture and modest forcing along a
developing sea breeze during the afternoon/evening could support a
couple of lightning flashes near the immediate coast or just
offshore the southeast FL Peninsula and portions of the Keys. Severe
storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 01/13/2026
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