Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front moves southeastward into the Appalachians. A large area of high pressure will settle into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a cool and dry airmass across the region. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front moves southeastward into the Appalachians. A large area of high pressure will settle into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a cool and dry airmass across the region. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front moves southeastward into the Appalachians. A large area of high pressure will settle into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a cool and dry airmass across the region. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow will persist over much of the CONUS as eastern US troughing continues to intensify. A stronger shortwave within the broad troughing will move southward over the central US Tuesday. An accompanying cold front will also move southward with strong surface winds along and behind it. ..Central High Plains... As the upper trough over the East deepens, flow aloft will turn more northerly ahead of the strong shortwave trough. This, along with the surface cold front will support strong northerly/northwesterly surface winds across parts of WY northern CO and NE Tuesday. At least brief dry and breezy conditions are possible in this region owing to the downslope winds. Currently, RH values appear only modest owing to cloud cover and rapidly decreasing temperatures. However, very dry fine fuels and in some dry/breezy conditions could support brief locally elevated fire-weather potential Tuesday afternoon before diminishing overnight. ...Southern Plains... A period of dry southwesterly flow is forecast to develop across the southern Plains D2/Tuesday as upper troughing intensifies over the northeastern US. Winds are not forecast to be overly strong, but gusts around 15 mph are possible. These winds, overlapping with low RH of 15-20% during the afternoon could support some localized fire-weather concerns. However, recent rainfall should preclude broader potential. ...Southeast... Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface high pressure settles south of the deepening low in the wake of an earlier cold front. While strong winds appear unlikely, RH values below 35% and drier fuels could support some brief localized fire-weather concerns, especially across parts of coastal GA and the Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow will persist over much of the CONUS as eastern US troughing continues to intensify. A stronger shortwave within the broad troughing will move southward over the central US Tuesday. An accompanying cold front will also move southward with strong surface winds along and behind it. ..Central High Plains... As the upper trough over the East deepens, flow aloft will turn more northerly ahead of the strong shortwave trough. This, along with the surface cold front will support strong northerly/northwesterly surface winds across parts of WY northern CO and NE Tuesday. At least brief dry and breezy conditions are possible in this region owing to the downslope winds. Currently, RH values appear only modest owing to cloud cover and rapidly decreasing temperatures. However, very dry fine fuels and in some dry/breezy conditions could support brief locally elevated fire-weather potential Tuesday afternoon before diminishing overnight. ...Southern Plains... A period of dry southwesterly flow is forecast to develop across the southern Plains D2/Tuesday as upper troughing intensifies over the northeastern US. Winds are not forecast to be overly strong, but gusts around 15 mph are possible. These winds, overlapping with low RH of 15-20% during the afternoon could support some localized fire-weather concerns. However, recent rainfall should preclude broader potential. ...Southeast... Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface high pressure settles south of the deepening low in the wake of an earlier cold front. While strong winds appear unlikely, RH values below 35% and drier fuels could support some brief localized fire-weather concerns, especially across parts of coastal GA and the Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow will persist over much of the CONUS as eastern US troughing continues to intensify. A stronger shortwave within the broad troughing will move southward over the central US Tuesday. An accompanying cold front will also move southward with strong surface winds along and behind it. ..Central High Plains... As the upper trough over the East deepens, flow aloft will turn more northerly ahead of the strong shortwave trough. This, along with the surface cold front will support strong northerly/northwesterly surface winds across parts of WY northern CO and NE Tuesday. At least brief dry and breezy conditions are possible in this region owing to the downslope winds. Currently, RH values appear only modest owing to cloud cover and rapidly decreasing temperatures. However, very dry fine fuels and in some dry/breezy conditions could support brief locally elevated fire-weather potential Tuesday afternoon before diminishing overnight. ...Southern Plains... A period of dry southwesterly flow is forecast to develop across the southern Plains D2/Tuesday as upper troughing intensifies over the northeastern US. Winds are not forecast to be overly strong, but gusts around 15 mph are possible. These winds, overlapping with low RH of 15-20% during the afternoon could support some localized fire-weather concerns. However, recent rainfall should preclude broader potential. ...Southeast... Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface high pressure settles south of the deepening low in the wake of an earlier cold front. While strong winds appear unlikely, RH values below 35% and drier fuels could support some brief localized fire-weather concerns, especially across parts of coastal GA and the Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high pressure building to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. A stronger shortwave trough within the flow aloft will pass over the northern and central Rockies this afternoon. This, along with a strong surface pressure gradient will boost westerly low-level flow across the region, supporting an increase in fire-weather concerns. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Strong downslope winds are expected across much of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains today as upper-level ridging rapidly builds over the West. A shortwave trough embedded within strong west/northwesterly flow will move southeastward overspreading an unusually warm and dry airmass for January. West-northwest winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity in the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to facilitate an increased fire danger across lower elevations of central MT and northern WY. Farther south winds are expected to be somewhat weaker and displaced from the stronger flow aloft. Still, strong westerly pressure gradients and drier surface conditions could promote a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions over portions of CO/WY/NE where fine fuels are very dry. ...Southern Plains... Across the Southern Plains, dry southwest flow will likely support dry and breezy conditions over parts of OK/TX. Afternoon RH values will likely fall below 20%, though winds will be generally light. While recent rainfall has tempered fuels to some degree, fine fuels remain fairly dry and, some localized fire-weather concerns are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high pressure building to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. A stronger shortwave trough within the flow aloft will pass over the northern and central Rockies this afternoon. This, along with a strong surface pressure gradient will boost westerly low-level flow across the region, supporting an increase in fire-weather concerns. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Strong downslope winds are expected across much of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains today as upper-level ridging rapidly builds over the West. A shortwave trough embedded within strong west/northwesterly flow will move southeastward overspreading an unusually warm and dry airmass for January. West-northwest winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity in the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to facilitate an increased fire danger across lower elevations of central MT and northern WY. Farther south winds are expected to be somewhat weaker and displaced from the stronger flow aloft. Still, strong westerly pressure gradients and drier surface conditions could promote a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions over portions of CO/WY/NE where fine fuels are very dry. ...Southern Plains... Across the Southern Plains, dry southwest flow will likely support dry and breezy conditions over parts of OK/TX. Afternoon RH values will likely fall below 20%, though winds will be generally light. While recent rainfall has tempered fuels to some degree, fine fuels remain fairly dry and, some localized fire-weather concerns are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high pressure building to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. A stronger shortwave trough within the flow aloft will pass over the northern and central Rockies this afternoon. This, along with a strong surface pressure gradient will boost westerly low-level flow across the region, supporting an increase in fire-weather concerns. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Strong downslope winds are expected across much of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains today as upper-level ridging rapidly builds over the West. A shortwave trough embedded within strong west/northwesterly flow will move southeastward overspreading an unusually warm and dry airmass for January. West-northwest winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity in the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to facilitate an increased fire danger across lower elevations of central MT and northern WY. Farther south winds are expected to be somewhat weaker and displaced from the stronger flow aloft. Still, strong westerly pressure gradients and drier surface conditions could promote a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions over portions of CO/WY/NE where fine fuels are very dry. ...Southern Plains... Across the Southern Plains, dry southwest flow will likely support dry and breezy conditions over parts of OK/TX. Afternoon RH values will likely fall below 20%, though winds will be generally light. While recent rainfall has tempered fuels to some degree, fine fuels remain fairly dry and, some localized fire-weather concerns are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as an embedded shortwave trough digs southeastward into the Upper Midwest. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the nation. The only exception will be in south Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible over the Florida Keys and in the vicinity of Miami. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected to develop Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as an embedded shortwave trough digs southeastward into the Upper Midwest. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the nation. The only exception will be in south Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible over the Florida Keys and in the vicinity of Miami. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected to develop Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as an embedded shortwave trough digs southeastward into the Upper Midwest. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the nation. The only exception will be in south Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible over the Florida Keys and in the vicinity of Miami. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected to develop Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be in place from the Intermountain West to the Southeast today. The expansive high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the Southeast will maintain continental trajectories and offshore flow, cutting off Gulf moisture. The lack of boundary layer moisture, and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity through Monday night/early Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be in place from the Intermountain West to the Southeast today. The expansive high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the Southeast will maintain continental trajectories and offshore flow, cutting off Gulf moisture. The lack of boundary layer moisture, and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity through Monday night/early Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be in place from the Intermountain West to the Southeast today. The expansive high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the Southeast will maintain continental trajectories and offshore flow, cutting off Gulf moisture. The lack of boundary layer moisture, and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity through Monday night/early Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be in place from the Intermountain West to the Southeast today. The expansive high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the Southeast will maintain continental trajectories and offshore flow, cutting off Gulf moisture. The lack of boundary layer moisture, and cool/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity through Monday night/early Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Cool, dry and stable conditions across most of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorms the remainder of tonight. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2026 Read more